McKenna Watch

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

I’m just looking forward to the ‘we really need to find Gavin an elite centre’ talk for 20 seasons. Haha

Thankfully next season's draft seems to have more centers.
Early days yes, but that's the current trend.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

I’m just looking forward to the ‘we really need to find Gavin an elite centre’ talk for 20 seasons. Haha

Could you be a bit more miserable please?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Weird take to say adding a ton of talent to a league doesn’t make a difference for how difficult the league would be to play in. Care to elaborate on that?

Not that weird.

For one, outside of Penn State and a couple other programs, the influx wasn’t huge on a team to team basis and was spread out through the vast number (64) Div I teams across all conferences (roughly 3-5 per team, but that’s including programs that brought in 7 like Penn State, or 10 like Bowling Green).

Two, it’s not as though the influx was solely or even primarily focused on the best of the best CHL players. Many players were undrafted 19-21 year olds.

Three, when considering “how difficult the league is to play in” in the context of players like McKenna who already completely dominated the best of the best in the CHL, it’s the size, speed, and physical maturity of the players causing the most difficulty, not the talent. An undrafted 21 year old in the CHL is not automatically more talented than an undrafted 21 year old in the NCAA, but the NCAA player is more accustomed to playing against older, more physically mature players, which is the reason you see CHL players struggle, not because of the talent influx.

If the CHL talent influx made that much of a difference in the difficulty of the league, you might not expect the top 14 scorers to have all played NCAA last year. Nor would you expect the most dominant CHL player by far to sit 17th in NCAA scoring, and 2nd among CHL imports.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

I’m just looking forward to the ‘we really need to find Gavin an elite centre’ talk for 20 seasons. Haha

"Well, <Centre 1> McKenna played with is arguably a top 6 forward but I don't think you can call him a "true #1" center. And, despite the chemistry McKenna has shown with <Centre 2>, there's no way he's generational or elite. They're a #1 centre on a rebuilding team, which isn't a genuine #1"

[GioforPM]

Were the following centres elite, or did their wingers make them seem that way:

Oates (arguable he was since he scored 142 points without Hull)
Backstrom (I think not). Ditto Kuzenetsov.
Ronning? Nah.
Lemaire? No.
Zibanejad? Good but not elite.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dammage79

This is very Flames fan esque. They're currently in the hunt for 1st OA and are now working very hard to somehow prove that the presumptive 1st OA pick is a bust.

Yeah, this has to be a new record - we usually wait until 4 to 6 months after being drafted before declaring our prospects busts. Being proactive like this is next level.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Not that weird.

For one, outside of Penn State and a couple other programs, the influx wasn’t huge on a team to team basis and was spread out through the vast number (64) Div I teams across all conferences (roughly 3-5 per team, but that’s including programs that brought in 7 like Penn State, or 10 like Bowling Green).

Two, it’s not as though the influx was solely or even primarily focused on the best of the best CHL players. Many players were undrafted 19-21 year olds.

Three, when considering “how difficult the league is to play in” in the context of players like McKenna who already completely dominated the best of the best in the CHL, it’s the size, speed, and physical maturity of the players causing the most difficulty, not the talent. An undrafted 21 year old in the CHL is not automatically more talented than an undrafted 21 year old in the NCAA, but the NCAA player is more accustomed to playing against older, more physically mature players, which is the reason you see CHL players struggle, not because of the talent influx.

If the CHL talent influx made that much of a difference in the difficulty of the league, you might not expect the top 14 scorers to have all played NCAA last year. Nor would you expect the most dominant CHL player by far to sit 17th in NCAA scoring, and 2nd among CHL imports.

You're not wrong about the size and maturity factor, but 325 CHL players declaring for NCAA absolutely has an effect on the overall talent pool as well, it's impossible to say that it doesn't. Those 325 players wouldn't have been accepted into NCAA programs if they weren't better than 325 other players that would have been in the league if not for the influx of CHL players. That overall talent across the entire league increases.

If Macklin Celebrini were playing in the NCAA this year, all other things the same except with 325 additional CHL players replacing 325 lesser-skilled NCAA players, does he score more points, less points, or the exact same? There's 1,834 Div 1 NCAA hockey players so 17.7% of the league is replaced. I would argue less just given the increase in competition across the board.

[Hackey]

They draft McKenna this draft and an elite centre next draft. Simple.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Groot

You're not wrong about the size and maturity factor, but 325 CHL players declaring for NCAA absolutely has an effect on the overall talent pool as well, it's impossible to say that it doesn't. Those 325 players wouldn't have been accepted into NCAA programs if they weren't better than 325 other players that would have been in the league if not for the influx of CHL players. That overall talent across the entire league increases.

If Macklin Celebrini were playing in the NCAA this year, all other things the same except with 325 additional CHL players replacing 325 lesser-skilled NCAA players, does he score more points, less points, or the exact same? There's 1,834 Div 1 NCAA hockey players so 17.7% of the league is replaced. I would argue less just given the increase in competition across the board.

Not necessarily. Recruiting is like drafting. You can say the team picked player X instead of Y because they think they’ll be better, but that doesn’t mean it will turn out that way. There’s also the fact that a lot of those vacant spots filled by CHLers were vacated by players that have gone on to the NHL, AHL, or graduated. Are they all better than those players?

I think it’s fair to say the talent level might be higher than it otherwise would have been without the CHL imports. I don’t think you can definitively say it is higher, or that it’s the highest it has ever been. It might be the case that when Celebrini the talent level was much higher to the point that far less CHL players would have been recruited. We don’t really know.

And you also have to go back to my previous point about the majority of the players that have come over. Does it really matter to McKenna that Bowling Green has a 21 year older former CHLer on the 4th line that replaced a graduating 4th liner of a similar skillset? Probably not. So blanket generalizations just don’t work.

The talent influx has probably impacted bottom of the roster players far more than top ones, and far more than top CHLer who were regularly dominating these players in their own league anyway and who benefit from some bigger, stronger, meaner players being replaced by fellow teenage CHLers that they’re unlikely to match against.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

I’m just looking forward to the ‘we really need to find Gavin an elite centre’ talk for 20 seasons. Haha

If the flames got McKenna in the 2026 draft and a top 3 pick in the 2027 draft, they could have a shot at getting 6’5” centre Alexis Joseph who I’ve heard described as a dominant centre who is elite at pretty much every aspect of the game.

[Ba'alzamon]

Originally Posted by stemit14

If the flames got McKenna in the 2026 draft and a top 3 pick in the 2027 draft, they could have a shot at getting 6’5” centre Mathieu Joseph who I’ve heard described as a dominant centre who is elite at pretty much every aspect of the game.

You mean Alexis Joseph?

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

I’m just looking forward to the ‘we really need to find Gavin an elite centre’ talk for 20 seasons. Haha

Google --> Reschny, Cole


(Knock on wood)

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Thankfully next season's draft seems to have more centers.
Early days yes, but that's the current trend.

I thought Landon Dupont was the big get for 2027?

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Roko

McKenna will be just fine. He is small and young for college. That’s a hard league.

He's really lanky. Needs to fill out and he will. Being such a target each game and being at a physical disadvantage probably contributes to some perimeter play.

I believe Celebrini came in more physically ready for men's hockey.

How things started (and, to be fair, still good by any metric) is unlikely to be how they end.

This kid still has a long resume of being an exceptional player. I wouldnt bet against him in the long run.

I like some of the other options if he's already taken too.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by Ba'alzamon

You mean Alexis Joseph?

Correct. My bad.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Not necessarily. Recruiting is like drafting. You can say the team picked player X instead of Y because they think they’ll be better, but that doesn’t mean it will turn out that way. There’s also the fact that a lot of those vacant spots filled by CHLers were vacated by players that have gone on to the NHL, AHL, or graduated. Are they all better than those players?

I think it’s fair to say the talent level might be higher than it otherwise would have been without the CHL imports. I don’t think you can definitively say it is higher, or that it’s the highest it has ever been. It might be the case that when Celebrini the talent level was much higher to the point that far less CHL players would have been recruited. We don’t really know.

And you also have to go back to my previous point about the majority of the players that have come over. Does it really matter to McKenna that Bowling Green has a 21 year older former CHLer on the 4th line that replaced a graduating 4th liner of a similar skillset? Probably not. So blanket generalizations just don’t work.

The talent influx has probably impacted bottom of the roster players far more than top ones, and far more than top CHLer who were regularly dominating these players in their own league anyway and who benefit from some bigger, stronger, meaner players being replaced by fellow teenage CHLers that they’re unlikely to match against.

Let’s look at the first point. Recruiting becomes far easier when the talent pool is heavily expanded. Let’s add players from what has been regarded as the best development league in the world the CHL to the BCHL and AJHL and all the other provincial junior leagues outside of major. Now let’s take kids playing this level for 2-3 years and allow them to transfer to the NCAA. The 18-19 year ods that used to get spots are being taken up but drafted NHL prospects. Teams have always recruited 18-10 year olds now they can go for the best in addition to the kids just coming up.


Your whole argument is “maybe I don’t know we can’t say for sure so I am going to argue no”

Looking at the entire talent pool that has come over we have recent top 10 picks from the last 2 drafts as well as all the top North American draft eligible prospects. Every one of those guys is better than whoever they were going to replace that player with had they not been able to play in the NCAA

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Let’s look at the first point. Recruiting becomes far easier when the talent pool is heavily expanded. Let’s add players from what has been regarded as the best development league in the world the CHL to the BCHL and AJHL and all the other provincial junior leagues outside of major.

No, it doesn’t become easier when you have more talent to evaluate. It becomes harder.

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Now let’s take kids playing this level for 2-3 years and allow them to transfer to the NCAA. The 18-19 year ods that used to get spots are being taken up but drafted NHL prospects. Teams have always recruited 18-10 year olds now they can go for the best in addition to the kids just coming up.

Not really how it’s working, no. Players still have to want to go that route, and not all the best do.

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Your whole argument is “maybe I don’t know we can’t say for sure so I am going to argue no”

You’re acting like “We can’t say for sure” for something you’ve provided no actual evidence of is somehow a bad conclusion.

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Looking at the entire talent pool that has come over we have recent top 10 picks from the last 2 drafts as well as all the top North American draft eligible prospects. Every one of those guys is better than whoever they were going to replace that player with had they not been able to play in the NCAA

What? Of the 27 A ranked skaters by Central Scouting, 15 play in the CHL, and a whopping 2 play in the NCAA (McKenna and Verhoeff, and they don’t even play in the same conference).

The majority of players that switched to the NCAA were undrafted players 19-21 years old. How much better were they than the players they replaced? Can you provide some evidence? As I said, we know recruiters expect them to be better than other non-CHL options, but that’s basically it. We don’t know if the vast majority are, or if they’re better than the players who graduated/went to the NHL/AHL, so you can’t just say they are “just cuz.”

Your claim is that McKenna has it much harder than any prospect that has gone through the NCAA in history, yeah? Can you point out the players he’s played against that make that true?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Google --> Reschny, Cole


(Knock on wood)

I said it before. If McKenna can become Kucherov, then if Reschny becomes Point that seems pretty good.

[Enoch Root]

If you have an elite offensive winger, you don't need an elite offensive C, you need a great two-way C.

Examples: Trottier with Bossy, Toews with Kane, Lemaire with Lafleur, Bergeron with Pastrnak

You need your top line to be able to go head to head against other top lines, and a great 200-ft C, along with an elite winger and an elite shooter/scorer is one of the most iconic ways to build an elite top line.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by devo22

Sure, it's just a snap shot after 17 games. But still:

23 P. - Macklin Celebrini (1st overall)
22 P. - Connor Bedard (1st overall)
21 P. - Connor McDavid (1st overall)
21 P. - Jack Eichel (2nd overall)
21 P. - Kirill Kaprizov (135th overall)
20 P. - Nathan MacKinnon (1st overall)
20 P. - Evgeni Malkin (2nd overall)
20 P. - Leo Carlsson (2nd overall)
20 P. - Mark Scheifele (7th overall)
20 P. - William Nylander (8th overall)
20 P. - Mikko Rantanen (10th overall)

11 G. - Sidney Crosby (1st overall)
11 G. - Cutter Gauthier (5th overall)
10 G. - Nathan MacKinnon (1st overall)
10 G. - Jack Hughes (1st overall)
10 G. - Leon Draisaitl (3rd overall)
10 G. - Cole Caufield (15th overall)
10 G. - Morgan Geekie (67th overall)

so 7 out of 11 players with 20+ points and 4 out of 7 players with 10+ goals so far were top 3 picks. That obviously won't guarantee team success or anything, and there are obvious outliers like Kaprizov and Geekie as well. Still, would be nice to go to the top 3 well for a change and draft a game changer.

The odds of drafting a Crosby, Bedard, Eichel, Celebrini, etc..are not good, even if you're tanking. You've got to tank, then win the lottery, then hope you don't end up with a Yakupov.

Even then, it's not a guarantee that you'll win a cup. See Edmonton.

I'm not arguing against tanking this year. It's clearly the year to sell a few more vets and go for that big draft pick. It's going to be far from a sure thing, and the flames should also focus on developing depth and a well rounded team.