10-26-2025, 03:35 PM
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#161
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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That's not surprising since the most likely teams to win the lottery are at the bottom of the standings, and the Flames haven't finished at the bottom of the standings very often. The teams that are likely to drop after the lottery are also the bottom teams. The "mushy middle" teams aren't impacted by the lottery very often.
Out of 45 draft lottery draws that have been held over the years, only 12 were won by team with worse than 5th-best odds, in 9 different lotteries. In 4 of those 9 seasons, the Flames made the playoffs and weren't in the lottery. In 4 of the other 5 seasons, the Flames finished above the team that won the lottery, so the results didn't change anything for the Flames.
Since the draft lottery was introduced, the Flames have only finished bottom-5 three times. 1998 was an expansion year, so they still dropped from 5th to 6th because Nashville had the 2nd overall pick. In 2014, the Flames had the 4th-best odds and Florida won the lottery with the 2nd-best odds. 2016 was the only year the lottery had an impact on the Flames, when Winnipeg won from the 6th-best odds, bumping the Flames back one, but it didn't make a difference and they still got Tkachuk.
__________________
Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
Last edited by getbak; 10-26-2025 at 03:39 PM.
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11-08-2025, 12:04 AM
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#162
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: Richmond upon Thames, London
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The Whitehorse Wizard scores again tonight
11GP 4G 10A 14PTS
On a side note, Reschny gets two apples tonight in other college action!
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11-08-2025, 12:50 AM
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#163
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#1 Goaltender
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Mckenna/verhoeff
DuPont/joseph
Schultz/Pue
The next couple years could be huge if the flames actually bottom out
Last edited by Tbull8; 11-08-2025 at 12:53 AM.
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11-08-2025, 01:01 AM
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#164
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: Richmond upon Thames, London
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Seeing Bedard, Celebrini and Carlsson atop league scoring this year reaffirms that this is the way.
Even if they start a bit slow, top talents find their way to the top sooner or later.
Let's get one (or two).
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11-08-2025, 01:06 AM
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#165
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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Flames are 6 games below .500 right now.
Nobody else is more than 3 games below .500.
They are on their way and hopefully it continues
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bdubbs,
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MrMike,
Poe969,
The Fonz,
tkflames,
traptor,
TrentCrimmIndependent
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11-08-2025, 01:39 AM
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#166
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#1 Goaltender
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There’s definitely something off about that Reddit draft lottery post. The Flames have moved down in the draft multiple times, including 2005 when they were tied with a large group of teams for the 5th best odds and ended up picking 26th, behind several teams that had the lowest odds.
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11-08-2025, 02:58 AM
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#167
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Calgary
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Cheer for the team to win, but revel in their losses.
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11-08-2025, 03:30 AM
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#168
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macindoc
There’s definitely something off about that Reddit draft lottery post. The Flames have moved down in the draft multiple times, including 2005 when they were tied with a large group of teams for the 5th best odds and ended up picking 26th, behind several teams that had the lowest odds.
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They have only moved down in the draft order due to the lottery one time, 2016, when Winnipeg won the 2nd overall pick and moved up from 6 to drop the Flames down to 6.
In 2005, there was no starting draft order, so they didn't really drop. They just got extremely unlucky based on their odds.
The only other seasons where they picked lower than their place in the standings were expansion years where the expansion team(s) were given a higher placement in the draft. For example, in 1992, they had the 4th-worst record among non-playoff teams (7th worst overall because 3 teams made the playoffs with worse records), but ended up picking 6th because of Ottawa and Tampa joining the league.
__________________
Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
Last edited by getbak; 11-08-2025 at 04:05 AM.
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11-08-2025, 04:06 AM
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#169
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandman
Cheer for the team to win, but revel in their losses.
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I rationally understand that losses improve our draft odds.And that we're going to swallow hundreds of them before this rebuild bears fruit. But revel? Nope. Nope. Nope.
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11-08-2025, 05:27 AM
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#170
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finger Cookin
I rationally understand that losses improve our draft odds.And that we're going to swallow hundreds of them before this rebuild bears fruit. But revel? Nope. Nope. Nope.
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Lol, perhaps "revel" is not the right word.
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11-08-2025, 06:31 AM
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#171
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Austria, NOT Australia
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I actually feel I can't lose as a Flames fan right now. We win a game? Sweet, winning is fun. We lose a game? Fine, we desperately need that high draft pick. Win-win.
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11-08-2025, 07:12 AM
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#172
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22
I actually feel I can't lose as a Flames fan right now. We win a game? Sweet, winning is fun. We lose a game? Fine, we desperately need that high draft pick. Win-win.
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Exactly.
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11-08-2025, 08:05 AM
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#173
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandman
Lol, perhaps "revel" is not the right word.
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No you got it correct, people are reveling in it.
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11-08-2025, 08:19 AM
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#174
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Scoring Winger
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Keaton Verhoeff is making a significant argument for being drafted first. Mckenna has been struggling adapting to the more mature play.
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11-08-2025, 08:34 AM
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#175
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TherapyforGlencross
Keaton Verhoeff is making a significant argument for being drafted first. Mckenna has been struggling adapting to the more mature play.
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Verhoeff is a good prospect, but he's carrying a big frame which allows him to adjust to college hockey quicker.
McKenna is slight right now, he will add to his frame as the months go on. He's also 4th on his team in scoring, while the 3 kids ahead of him are 20 & 21.
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11-08-2025, 08:56 AM
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#176
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Crash and Bang Winger
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If McKenna is available you take him if you’re the flames. Don’t overthink it like Demidov
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11-08-2025, 09:35 AM
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#177
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Alberta
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Not taking McKenna would be outrageously foolish.
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11-08-2025, 09:38 AM
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#178
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TherapyforGlencross
Keaton Verhoeff is making a significant argument for being drafted first. Mckenna has been struggling adapting to the more mature play.
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Not really.
It's the same thing that happens to every consensus number 1 pick and at some point people start over evaluating them.
McKenna is still clearly number 1
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11-08-2025, 09:42 AM
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#179
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent
Seeing Bedard, Celebrini and Carlsson atop league scoring this year reaffirms that this is the way.
Even if they start a bit slow, top talents find their way to the top sooner or later.
Let's get one (or two).
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Who won the scoring race last year again?
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11-08-2025, 09:47 AM
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#180
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Van Island
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
Who won the scoring race last year again?
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Yeah!!
So we should go out and get more Huberdeaus and veterans! They don't drop off the next year to being tied with Barbashev and Rust in points!
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