[PGT] Flames defeat Blue Jackets 5-1

[Otto-matic]

Originally Posted by MissTeeks

It took me 5 tries yesterday for the Flames to actually stay with first overall. The Oilers managed to win the lottery before the Flames came up for me.

I had Oilers, Rangers, Florida all come up before I got the Flames.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Your unhappiness is what's not logical.

a. You don't get extra chances in the lottery by finishing really last versus barely last (which the Flames are right now).

Last place gets 185 four digit combinations in the lottery. 2nd last gets 135. 3rd gets 115. 4th 95. 5th gets 85..... 16th gets 5.

So it does matter some.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I wish I could be happy over a decisive win. But I cannot rationally and logically find happiness in a result that is a movement towards perpetual mediocrity rather than long term excellence.
The Flames have less than a 1 in 500 chance of winning the cup (MoneyPuck). If not the cup, get the best draft pick and secure as much prospect development as possible.

I do think winning some big games like this adds value to the franchise when trading players away. But for me that value isn't enough to move the needle vs finishing dead last. Lots of season left, but for me I think this draft is shaping up that McKenna is clear #1 but Stenberg and Verhoeff are tier 2. Finishing last gets us top 3 pick no matter the results of the lottery. Things could change and other prospects are in the mix and tier 2 could make this draft top 6 deep. But right now, it seems like top 3 would be massive game changers for this team.

[SuperMatt18]

You're not going to lose every game though.

So might as well enjoy what was a fun win in a players 1000th NHL game.

In the end if Wolf finds his game like he did tonight then it's going to be tough to suck bad enough for last overall this year. But hopefully still can get a top 5 pick and they still make the right decisions in maximizing the trade returns of aging pieces and don't hold on too long (ie. trade Kadri, Coleman, and Andersson no matter what happens the rest of this season).

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Last place gets 185 four digit combinations in the lottery. 2nd last gets 135. 3rd gets 115. 4th 95. 5th gets 85..... 16th gets 5.

So it does matter some.

Tell me you didn't understand the point in the post without saying "I didn't understand it".

Last by 20 points versus last by 1 point. Which one gets more lottery balls?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by traptor

Its not 1st oa or bust though.


Any of those top 5 would be an amazing grab for us, and really elevate our future outlook.

And this win will not prevent the Flames from finishing in those spots.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

And this win will not prevent the Flames from finishing in those spots.

I agree. I'm happy they won it was fun.

That's not what I was responding to.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

You're not going to lose every game though.

So might as well enjoy what was a fun win in a players 1000th NHL game.

In the end if Wolf finds his game like he did tonight then it's going to be tough to suck bad enough for last overall this year. But hopefully still can get a top 5 pick and they still make the right decisions in maximizing the trade returns of aging pieces and don't hold on too long (ie. trade Kadri, Coleman, and Andersson no matter what happens the rest of this season).

All of this can set the Flames up for long term success. But I still think finishing last set us up for a crack at the top 3. Things could change but I actually think the top 2 picks should be McKenna and Verhoeff and both are valuable enough to be upper end franchise players. Finishing last also doesn't count against us if we win the lottery. If we luck out in future years, this year does not count against us.

Finishing last is hard, but that also varies from year to year. SJ has Celebrini who is pacing for 100+ and Chicago has Bedard pacing for 100+. Anaheim has young stars tearing up the league. All 3 could have great goaltending too.

This year's last place team is shaping up to be about a 65-point team. Some years that is not good enough to get last, maybe this year it will be. Lots of season left though

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Tell me you didn't understand the point in the post without saying "I didn't understand it".

Last by 20 points versus last by 1 point. Which one gets more lottery balls?

If you really want them to finish last overall you're cheering for them to lose all the time.

If you want your team to win the World Series, aren't you cheering for them to win every game? To get a hit every at bat? To get a strike on every pitch?

I'm not cheering for losses personally, but if last overall is what you really want, every single win hurts your chances. It's as simple as that.

Again not my thing, but I see no reason to try and argue with people that they should be Ok with a win if what they want is a loss.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

All of this can set the Flames up for long term success. But I still think finishing last set us up for a crack at the top 3. Things could change but I actually think the top 2 picks should be McKenna and Verhoeff and both are valuable enough to be upper end franchise players. Finishing last also doesn't count against us if we win the lottery. If we luck out in future years, this year does not count against us.

Finishing last is hard, but that also varies from year to year. SJ has Celebrini who is pacing for 100+ and Chicago has Bedard pacing for 100+. Anaheim has young stars tearing up the league. All 3 could have great goaltending too.

This year's last place team is shaping up to be about a 65-point team. Some years that is not good enough to get last, maybe this year it will be. Lots of season left though

Note: Chicago didn't finished last when they got Bedard. They didn't even finish second last.

Hell, last draft NYI moved from picking 10th to 1OA IIRC.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

If you really want them to finish last overall you're cheering for them to lose all the time.

If you want your team to win the World Series, aren't you cheering for them to win every game? To get a hit every at bat? To get a strike on every pitch?

I'm not cheering for losses personally, but if last overall is what you really want, every single win hurts your chances. It's as simple as that.

Again not my thing, but I see no reason to try and argue with people that they should be Ok with a win if what they want is a loss.

Read his post again. He wasn't talking about more losses = better chance of finishing last. he was talking last versus second last, so he did miss the point.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Tell me you didn't understand the point in the post without saying "I didn't understand it".

Last by 20 points versus last by 1 point. Which one gets more lottery balls?

Clearly what you wrote wasn't clear.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Clearly what you wrote wasn't clear.

Only if you don't read carefully. "Last by a lot versus barely last" = last either way.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Only if you don't read carefully. "Last by a lot versus barely last" = last either way.

Ok, I've had coffee and read it again.

I see what you meant now, but I'm still confused as to why you responded to them with that, especially at this point in the season.

It's not March with last place locked up by a dozen points. We're currently last but there's 67 games to go. For posters who've either taken a stance that it's likely we'll be a high lottery team, or a stance that they really want us to be a high lottery team more than anything else, two points today will probably matter in April. It's way too early to predict we'll even be last, barely last, or even last by a lot.

But yes, you're correct, last by a lot and last by a little still get 185 combinations.

[Lanny'sDaMan]

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Ok, I've had coffee and read it again.

I see what you meant now, but I'm still confused as to why you responded to them with that, especially at this point in the season.

It's not March with last place locked up by a dozen points. We're currently last but there's 67 games to go. For posters who've either taken a stance that it's likely we'll be a high lottery team, or a stance that they really want us to be a high lottery team more than anything else, two points today will probably matter in April. It's way too early to predict we'll even be last, barely last, or even last by a lot.

But yes, you're correct, last by a lot and last by a little still get 185 combinations.

I think we're all just looking for stuff to argue with. Of course everyone knows that there is no difference between last by 1 point or last by 100 points, but pointing it out is a way to minimize their preference for losses I guess.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Note: Chicago didn't finished last when they got Bedard. They didn't even finish second last.

Hell, last draft NYI moved from picking 10th to 1OA IIRC.

I get that teams win the lottery.

Going into the season the most talked about teams that a ton of posters said no way we can finish below in the standings than these teams were:

SJ
Chi
Ana

Pittsburgh also announced a rebuild and they were projected to be bad

Nashville, NYI, Seattle, Boston were other teams thought to be in the mix depending on what direction they choose to go as the season unfolds.

Buffalo is always in the mix to be at the bottom.

When I look at the standings, I'm not changing who the focus is on. St Louis and Minnesota have a long way to go before I pencil them in as the teams to watch. If they start selling off pieces, then yes, they are in the mix. But if selling off a piece or 2 takes 2 playoff teams to bottom 3, same logic can be applied to the Flames.

Gambling sites give odds, but their goal is to promote gambling and making money, not give out fair odds.

IMO the Flames have as good a chance at last place overall as they do making a comeback to make the playoffs. 1 big move soon trading a guy like Kadri increases the odds dramatically. Things are in their favour because some of the usual suspects to finish last are off to very good starts and have young superstars they just are not trading to tank.

Yes, we could get last and not get 1st pick. They could finish 6th last and get 1st pick. But last gives them a guarantee of top 3 and if they win the lottery, it doesn't block any future lottery wins as this team isn't going to make the playoffs for at least 2 years after this year if they sell off Rasmus, Kadri and Coleman this season. They should get 2-3 more cracks at 1st OV as I doubt, they are out of the bottom 10 for the 2027 or 2028 draft.

[SuperMatt18]

San Jose, Nashville, and St Louis look to be the obvious ones to watch for in the bottom of the standings.

Minnesota and Vancouver probably eventually make changes to try the salvage the season. Chicago and Anaheim at this point seem to be good enough to be in the mushy middle at least.

Pretty much the entire eastern conference is above .500 and I expect that to be a battleground all season.

The Blues and Predators are the ones that are going to be annoying - both from a bottom of the standings perspective, and also because I could see them being more proactive at moving out veteran assets than the Flames and flooding the trade market a bit.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

San Jose, Nashville, and St Louis look to be the obvious ones to watch for in the bottom of the standings.

Minnesota and Vancouver probably eventually make changes to try the salvage the season. Chicago and Anaheim at this point seem to be good enough to be in the mushy middle at least.

Pretty much the entire eastern conference is above .500 and I expect that to be a battleground all season.

The Blues and Predators are the ones that are going to be annoying - both from a bottom of the standings perspective, and also because I could see them being more proactive at moving out veteran assets than the Flames and flooding the trade market a bit.

I do agree with you that St Louis and Nashville could be the new teams to watch. But unlike the Flames, they have top end contributors that are harder to move and players that are top end that probably are not in the equation of moving to tank.

Nashville is older and should rip it apart, but they are loaded with NMC. Some are long term deals of players that we can all say they should trade, but I doubt they will. Forsberg, Josi, Skeji, Saros probably do not move this season. Stamkos and Marchesaault could move but also can block any deal that Nashville wants to make. Nashville has 2-3 forwards that could step up as trades are made. I see O'Rielly as the only player they move that is a key contributor.

St Louis also has high end players with full NTC on long term deals. We can all say Thomas could move, but is he moving? I doubt it. Tons of key contributors aren't moving. I see Schenn as someone who could be available.

The Flames have nobody long-term contributing other than Wolf. Parekh, Zary, and Coronato are not playing that well and are having little to no impact on winning games right now. Kadri, Coleman, Ras all are very likely to move and move with less push back from players (trade protection) and owners. Key contributors that are old and not signed long term. This opportunity has become more favorable 15ish games into the season than it looked in the off season. It feels like it is our best chance without doing something dramatic like other teams need to do.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

If you really want them to finish last overall you're cheering for them to lose all the time.

If you want your team to win the World Series, aren't you cheering for them to win every game? To get a hit every at bat? To get a strike on every pitch?

I'm not cheering for losses personally, but if last overall is what you really want, every single win hurts your chances. It's as simple as that.

Again not my thing, but I see no reason to try and argue with people that they should be Ok with a win if what they want is a loss.

This is what I don't understand from some posts. People are saying I am being negative about a win, but I don't want the team to win games right now.

I have seen this story way too many times, the players start playing over their heads and Wolf will steal a bunch of games. Suddenly we will find ourself picking outside the top 10 again by the end of the year. And suddenly because we are winning we won't trade the vets because you want to give them a chance at playoffs.

I am cheering for losses now because I want to win and be able to contend in the future. I want a Bedard. I want a Celebrini. I don't want to keep hoping we can hit it out of the park in the draft. These elite game changing players are mostly found right at the top of the draft. I want a game changer.

I want to lose lots, and I want Kadri, Anderrson, Coleman all to be traded very soon to help that and get good returns.