2026 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Roof-Daddy]

This team being a one hit wonder is quite the take.

Especially when 90% of the roster is under control.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Especially when 90% of the roster is under control.

The issue is 75% of that roster out performed their norm. And while a guy like Barger continuing to trend up is possible. Guys like Lukes, Springer, Clement etc etc repeating while also losing one of their best players and having one fifth of a rotation on paper at present (albeit with the entire off-season to make one) means it is far from a sure thing and is more likely to not happen.

[Jiri Hrdina]

how do you get to 1/5th of a rotation.

They already have Gausman, Trey, Berrios, Lauer, Francis all as potential candidates, with the first 2 being the most important starters from their run.

"On paper" they have more than 1/5th of a rotation.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

how do you get to 1/5th of a rotation.

They already have Gausman, Trey, Berrios, Lauer, Francis all as potential candidates, with the first 2 being the most important starters from their run.

"On paper" they have more than 1/5th of a rotation.

Yep.

They also have $60 million to spend just to get to last seasons payroll level, and may open the books up even more given the boatload of money Rogers would have just made off this run.

They also have the best defense in MLB, one of the best offenses in MLB, a team that's made the playoffs 4/6 six seasons now, and just made it to game 7 of the World Series. All of these things would be appealing to free agents, especially starting pitchers.

[Dentoman]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

That goes both ways though.

He has too big of a lead, and a ball is hit hard to RF on a line drive. If he's on the bag maybe he can tag up and make it home, but if he's too far off the bag he probably can't.

They are playing for a ball hit into the outfield on that play, not a soft infield single, that's why he's closer to the bag to be able to successfully tag.

I agree with this. They were gonna test Teoscar’s arm on basically any fly ball. They were definitely playing for a fly ball
And Rojas made a good play and great throw. That grpund ball is 1 foot to his right or left and he can’t plant his back foot and make that throw home in time. Hit right at him, he gathers himself and plants his back foot and fires

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

The issue is 75% of that roster out performed their norm. And while a guy like Barger continuing to trend up is possible. Guys like Lukes, Springer, Clement etc etc repeating while also losing one of their best players and having one fifth of a rotation on paper at present (albeit with the entire off-season to make one) means it is far from a sure thing and is more likely to not happen.

We'll see.

Last years 74 win team full of underperforming players was the extreme outlier, not this years 94 win team that still had room for improvement from some of the players.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

how do you get to 1/5th of a rotation.

They already have Gausman, Trey, Berrios, Lauer, Francis all as potential candidates, with the first 2 being the most important starters from their run.

"On paper" they have more than 1/5th of a rotation.

Gausman is the only guy they have that I would lock in as a starter next year. Yesavage is a freak and he will be great but as I pointed out, we just went through this with Manoah. I don't think Yesavage is a bust, but the jump to the MLB is not that easy and progress is not linear. He could easily take a small step back and not be a factor into the rotation next year. Berrios is cooked, I'll be shocked if he's back. Lauer and Francis could be fine. They could also be very below average and off the team by July. Ofcourse you are hoping Lauer stays the same as he was this year and Francis shows up like he did at the end of 2024. Neither of those are locks and I wouldn't even expect them to be likely.

The Jays will need a minimum of two top of the rotation starters and realistically they'll want a 4th or 5th guy as well. Going in with Gausman Yesavage Berrios Lauer and Francis would be scary as hell.

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

We'll see.

Last years 74 win team full of underperforming players was the extreme outlier, not this years 94 win team that still had room for improvement from some of the players.

I agree.


I think they're both outliers on either side and the team is in the middle. And now they've lost one of their best players and half their rotation.

[cross16]

Outside the Dodgers and just spending what seems to be unlimited amounts of money, most teams in MLB these days aren't complete teams on paper. Like many sports, MLB is a build yourself a good enough team and get hot at the right time type of sport.

Even if you factor in regression for some players I don't think it's too difficult to see them staying in that category.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

I agree.


I think they're both outliers on either side and the team is in the middle. And now they've lost one of their best players and half their rotation.

They haven't had a chance to replace those players yet, or bring them back.

And they've already replaced one of their starters with Yesavage, who wasn't on the roster until the end of the season, and time will tell but he looks to be a clear upgrade on an aging Sherzer or Bassitt....and both of those guys have made it clear they would be very interested in returning. I'm hoping they find better options than brining them back, because neither one of them provided much as far as fWAR goes during the season, although both appear to be huge positive locker room influences and performed well in the CS and WS.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

but was their season also a big fluke?

A bit of a fluke. They earned it but they had a lot go right for them. You can't bank on "clutch" hitting (pretty sure the last two games demonstrated that) so you can't bank on them leading the league in average with RISP. Probably can't bank on Springer being this good again either. If they resign Bo then they'll challange for the wildcard (assume some negative regression from Springer and Positive Regression from Santander). Need another #1/#2 starter to project any better.

[browna]

As discussed last year when there was nothing to talk about, with the payroll they have they should be a wild card team every year.

This year those tens of millions of $ Rogers made hosting 9 playoff games, selling seats and club memberships for next year for those wanting to join the party this year, and selling out of merchandise should allow them on paper, to get whoever they want. As well you have Atkins and Shapiro always with an eye to value, putting Vladdy through the wringer a bit.

Also discussed the last couple years here, is it’s not that simple, whether it be market size or a different country or taxes or weather or the manager etc etc, equal money often has the player going somewhere else.

Obviously with this run the culture and organizational values and fan support and Vlad locked up etc have been directly in the international spotlight, so that is a positive that may sway some to come to Toronto, but not a guarantee.

Speaking of, the save leader Suarez from the Padres is opting for FA.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by browna

A lot did go right. You need skill, pitching, as well as luck and intangibles to get in the playoffs and certainly to succeed and that is what they embraced and did.

But everything still has to line up to have it all work out.

One solitary less win in the regular season and I don’t think they get into the WS at all, nevermind game 7, maybe not even past the Yankees in the DS, because they would’ve had to play the WC round and would’ve used Gausman Yesaveage and maybe Beiber against Boston. Leaving Scherzer for Game 1 vs the Yanks if they get through and that series and anything past that, plays out differently than it did.

That regular season loss could’ve come in May when they came back from being 6-0 to Boston or vs Tampa in the last series when Varsho hits a late HR to sink Tampa.

So there’s a lot of circumstance and timing and pure luck to get into the playoffs, to get through 2 rounds and to get to a Game 7 WS. And it doesn’t stop there.
What if Rojas stumbled a second time, or Hernandez reaches his arm up and accidently hits Pages in the face and drops the ball? The Jays win it all.

The Jays (as any team who goes that far and wins or finishes second) have to have all or most of those breaks go their way in season, and the critical playoff tipping points, go mostly their way too.

It just seems (as Flames in 2004) too monumental a task to have to once again have all or most of those outcomes repeat next year over 162 regular season games and 18+ playoffs to get anywhere near the exact same opportunity again when they were inches away multiple times from winning it all 48h ago now.

Maybe you're right. Or maybe this is more like the Florida Panthers who barely squeaked into the playoffs, came back from 3-1 vs the heavily favored Bruins, then went to the finals and lost. Many people viewed it as a fluke run. Look what happened the next 2 years.

[browna]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Maybe you're right. Or maybe this is more like the Florida Panthers who barely squeaked into the playoffs, came back from 3-1 vs the heavily favored Bruins, then went to the finals and lost. Many people viewed it as a fluke run. Look what happened the next 2 years.

As others have said here, it wasn’t a fluke. They had the talent thanks to suprises from Springer and Clement and Varsho etc, and the relentless style which allowed so many comebacks, as many as the Dodgers in the regular season.

But any good team and even winning team needs stuff to go their way a few times to get the chance to go further into the playoffs and to and within the WS. Blue Jays got that at various points and so did the Dodgers to win it all.

I guess bottom line is that the Jays to get this far next year are likely going to have to do it a much different way next year than the way they did it this year, a lot moreso than the Dodgers had to do to repeat. And even if/when they do it a different way, they will still need good fortune and a break here or there to turn a playoff game or series.

[EldrickOnIce]

Post season is probably a lot of luck.
Jays could just as easily lost to Seattle as just as easily won the WS.
Luck evens out over 162 games though. Usually. If Bo moves on that's a huge hole to fill. If he stays they are a playoff team, depending on pitching.
Pretty hard to speculate on next year just yet.

[dino7c]

I mean sports in general is a lot of luck...Blaster is a hater though, has been all year and all playoffs. He should stick to being wrong about the Canucks and not also be wrong in the other direction on the Blue Jays.

Jays should be a playoff team, then as always you hope to get hot from there.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by browna

A lot did go right. You need skill, pitching, as well as luck and intangibles to get in the playoffs and certainly to succeed and that is what they embraced and did.

But everything still has to line up to have it all work out.

One solitary less win in the regular season and I don’t think they get into the WS at all, nevermind game 7, maybe not even past the Yankees in the DS, because they would’ve had to play the WC round and would’ve used Gausman Yesaveage and maybe Beiber against Boston. Leaving Scherzer for Game 1 vs the Yanks if they get through and that series and anything past that, plays out differently than it did.

That regular season loss could’ve come in May when they came back from being 6-0 to Boston or vs Tampa in the last series when Varsho hits a late HR to sink Tampa.

So there’s a lot of circumstance and timing and pure luck to get into the playoffs, to get through 2 rounds and to get to a Game 7 WS. And it doesn’t stop there.
What if Rojas stumbled a second time, or Hernandez reaches his arm up and accidently hits Pages in the face and drops the ball? The Jays win it all.

The Jays (as any team who goes that far and wins or finishes second) have to have all or most of those breaks go their way in season, and the critical playoff tipping points, go mostly their way too.

It just seems (as Flames in 2004) too monumental a task to have to once again have all or most of those outcomes repeat next year over 162 regular season games and 18+ playoffs to get anywhere near the exact same opportunity again when they were inches away multiple times from winning it all 48h ago now.

For the playoffs sure, there is definitely luck required.

And Springer was better this year than I think they have any right to expect. But Santander was definitely worse. If those offset then I think you're fairly even on the position player side. Depends on whether Clement/Barger regress, although Barger especially could get better as well.

If they can sign 1-2 SP to replace Bassitt/Scherzer's innings I think they'll have a similar regular season record (eg 90+ wins and comfortably make the playoffs).

[Andrew]

I think Atkins knows the farm fairly well. Depth got them here.

Macko tiedeman Perez Lucas king Estrada stanifer bloss a few others double triple a. We will get a starter... out of them just by odds


development had been ok. Somebody will breakout. This year they did

[Jason14h]

I don’t think theres any chance they bring Bieber back. They didn’t trust him for a game 7 over old man Max, and they didn’t trust him out of the bullpen until everyone else useful was gone, to which he repaid us by losing the game

I think theres a very very low chance Bo is back.

With the other UFA that leaves that at ~210 million after Arb

Here is what I see locked in so far

1. Springer DH (R)
2. Barger 3B (L)
3. Vladdy 1B (R)
4. Clement SS
5. Varsho CF (L)
6. Kirk C (R)
7. Santander LF (S)
8. Lukes/Schnieder RF
9. Giminez SS (L)

Bench - Heineman , Lukes , Straw , Schneider Loperfido , Someone

Pitching gets a bit weird. There has been complete silence around Berrios all playoffs. There seems like there may be something ‘off’ between him and the team. There is also rumors the Red Sox asked for him for Devers and the Jays said no – so league wide there was interest in him.

I do wonder if the Jays look to trade him this offseason / If he would want to be traded.

Lauer is a Arb 3 with a projection of 5.5 million. That seems high for a player they didn’t trust to use at all in the playoffs or down the stretch.

This is what we have on paper, but both the above could be gone. Assuming they were, that’s another 25 million free.

SP1 - Gausman
SP2 - ?
SP3 - Yesavage
SP4 - ?
SP5 – ??

CL - Hoffman
SU - Garcia
SU - Varland

Rest of the BP arms to build with - Fluharty, Little, , Rodriguez, Fisher, Nance, Sandlin, Bruihl, Burr, etc

I don’t see them exceeding the 280 million tier for luxury tax, so they have 70 million with Berrios or Lauer and 95 million without

I do wonder if Max would want to come back on a team friendly deal at his age and with how much he has made in his career. Something around 8-10 million.

Notable FA Pitchers: Not a lot in the age range you would like – I think they could go for Suarez, King, and Gallen.

Dylan Cease (30, 8.1)
Framber Valdez (32, 7.7)
Ranger Suárez (30, 7.5)
Jack Flaherty (30, 5.9) -- can opt out
Nick Martinez (35, 5.5)
Chris Bassitt (37, 4.8)
Michael King (31, 4.7)
Zac Gallen (30, 3.9)
Merrill Kelly (37, 3.8)
Zack Littell (30, 3.7)
Patrick Corbin (36, 3.6)
Erick Fedde (33, 3.2)
Justin Verlander (43, 2.9)
Zach Eflin (32, 2.6)
Kyle Hendricks (36, 2.2)
Miles Mikolas (37, 2.2)
Nestor Cortes (31, 2.1)
Adrian Houser (33, 2.1)
Tyler Mahle (31, 2.1)
Lucas Giolito (30, 2.0)

Clement basically did what he did the year before (1 more WAR) and Kirk had the same WAR as the previous 2 seasons

As much as we love Bo, the reality is he was only worth 3.5 WAR last year, so hardly irreplaceable. Springer is likely to decline from 4.8, but a 2.5 isn’t unlikely. So we will have to make up ~ 6 WAR from hitting,

I don’t think its unlikely to think Vlad, Santandar and Varsho over a whole season don’t make that up.

The bullpen was meh at best this year, so it’s not unlikely to think they can be as good or better.

So really the SPing is where there is a ton of Q’s, but we have between 70-95 million to address it (and maybe 1 more bullpen power arm)

The biggest thing they need is a true ace – Maybe try to trade for Peralta or Joe Ryan. Trading for guys with term is something the Jays have historically done.

Here is some of the rumored available players
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/...offseason.html

I think the opening line will be around 88 wins for this team.

[howard_the_duck]

Blair & Barker today were saying that we should expect to see Varland starting for this team next year. That was the first I'd heard of that.

[MacFlame]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

Blair & Barker today were saying that we should expect to see Varland starting for this team next year. That was the first I'd heard of that.

They talked about when they traded for him too. He's definitely on the radar to be a starter. I think he will be.