Dear Craig, it's time to give Rory Kerins his due!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

People clearly don't want his offense to threaten our tank.

I can only laugh at how easily people will write off certain prospects while looking for every reason to believe in others because of draft pedigree.

Some will extract narratives out of thin air to defend the Flames decisions.

The argument isnt being made that he's something that he hasn't proven to be yet, but just that he should be granted the opportunity to even try to prove it.

5 games were a) not enough and b) not even a failure if you care about output, and this team in particular should care a lot about that aspect given how its dried up for them over the last couple of seasons.

Yeah ... no

Kerins was productive in a short stint, but the stint also had him getting caved in at five on five.

I'm still rooting for the player, but there are certainly some tangible warning signs that he may be a good AHLer and nothing but.

Hope he gets a chance to prove otherwise.

But you don't need to extract narratives out of thin air to justify why a player that just passed through league wide waivers NEEDS to be recalled.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Happens all the time. Krys Kolanos was a hell of an AHLer.

But couldn't do #### in the NHL.

I'm not saying Kerins = Kolanos, I'm just saying that AHL success doesn't equal NHL success automatically.

Kolanos got several cracks at it with different organizations and failed to make the jump. Still a pretty good AHL career.

If kerins is granted the same opportunities and still can't crack it, then we can put the issue to bed.

Until then, it's understandably a point of discussion.

[Burning Beard]

There are still 70 plus games left. In a tanking season. He will get games.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

There are still 70 plus games left. In a tanking season. He will get games.

Hope so!

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah ... no

Kerins was productive in a short stint, but the stint also had him getting caved in at five on five.

I'm still rooting for the player, but there are certainly some tangible warning signs that he may be a good AHLer and nothing but.

Hope he gets a chance to prove otherwise.

But you don't need to extract narratives out of thin air to justify why a player that just passed through league wide waivers NEEDS to be recalled.

Show us your work.

I don't think "he" got caved in 5-5. His most common linemate was... YEGOR SHARANGOVICH
well, we have all seen ample proof that this is a guy who gets routinely "caved in" 5 on 5, through last year and into this season. Could it possibly be that he was caved in because he was carrying around dead weight?

No, it must be him!

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah ... no

Kerins was productive in a short stint, but the stint also had him getting caved in at five on five.

I'm still rooting for the player, but there are certainly some tangible warning signs that he may be a good AHLer and nothing but.

Hope he gets a chance to prove otherwise.

But you don't need to extract narratives out of thin air to justify why a player that just passed through league wide waivers NEEDS to be recalled.

Many potentially useful players passed through waivers.

I think that happens late in camp every year. Teams largely have their teams solidified and dont see the need to take swings on unknown quantities at the NHL level.

Its also true based off accounts of some scouts that Kerins gets overlooked. And that's peculiar.

But players do fly under the radar who wind up being nhlers.

Let's just see this kid again and find out for sure. He's earned that much.

If stromgren or Morton or King were producing with the same consistency including in a limited stint, I'd be rallying for the same cause on their behalf.

Its a push for meritocracy. And thats hopefully coming later when the number issue is resolved via trades.

[Gugstanley]

I don't see Kerins as an NHL player, but I will talk to Craig next time I see him. He will get a laugh out of this one.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Show us your work.

I don't think "he" got caved in 5-5. His most common linemate was... YEGOR SHARANGOVICH
well, we have all seen ample proof that this is a guy who gets routinely "caved in" 5 on 5, through last year and into this season. Could it possibly be that he was caved in because he was carrying around dead weight?

No, it must be him!

The work is his negative Corsi and Fenwick scores. And that's being sheltered with 70% o-zone starts, and he was well below anyone except Lomberg and Rooney, who had a majority of D zone starts (about 60%).

He was also 33% in the dot.

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/rory-kerins

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Show us your work.

I don't think "he" got caved in 5-5. His most common linemate was... YEGOR SHARANGOVICH
well, we have all seen ample proof that this is a guy who gets routinely "caved in" 5 on 5, through last year and into this season. Could it possibly be that he was caved in because he was carrying around dead weight?

No, it must be him!

His last two games were 16 and 4.5% in xGF%.

If he comes up now he's getting worse linemates than Sharangovich and Pelletier for play driving.

He's a tweener. If he wants to rise above that he can't regress with linemates that don't drive play, he has to help that cause.

Last year he had a rough game in Winnipeg (game 4) and then again against Buffalo in Calgary (game 5). And seeing that doesn't take much work.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Many potentially useful players passed through waivers.

I think that happens late in camp every year. Teams largely have their teams solidified and dont see the need to take swings on unknown quantities at the NHL level.

Its also true based off accounts of some scouts that Kerins gets overlooked. And that's peculiar.

But players do fly under the radar who wind up being nhlers.

Let's just see this kid again and find out for sure. He's earned that much.

If stromgren or Morton or King were producing with the same consistency including in a limited stint, I'd be rallying for the same cause on their behalf.

Its a push for meritocracy. And thats hopefully coming later when the number issue is resolved via trades.

I'm all for giving him another look.

But not a fan of the "fabricating out of thin air" BS as a way to paint those that see some limitations in his game.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

His last two games were 16 and 4.5% in xGF%.

If he comes up now he's getting worse linemates than Sharangovich and Pelletier for play driving.

He's a tweener. If he wants to rise above that he can't regress with linemates that don't drive play, he has to help that cause.

Last year he had a rough game in Winnipeg (game 4) and then again against Buffalo in Calgary (game 5). And seeing that doesn't take much work.

But why do we ignore the 3 good games where he was +50% xGF on the ice for 4 GF and 0 GA.

It seems very clear that switching the line was a big issue last year for Kerins. He had two key line combinations for his 5 games last year, didn't play more than 1 minute with any other line combo.

Kerins + Pelletier + Sharangovich = 30 minutes, 52.8% xGF, 4 GF 0 GA

Kerins + Kuzmenko + Sharangovich = 13 minutes, 15.2% xGF, 0 GF 1 GA

Seems like changing up the line combo was a big part of Kerins struggles. If I'm not mistaken Kuzmenko was at the end of his time as a Flame and traded within like a week of that too.

And why do those two poor games mean he doesn't get another look eventually?

Ryan Lomberg was 3.13% xGF against Winnipeg last week - why didn't he immediately get sent down?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

But why do we ignore the 3 good games where he was +50% xGF on the ice for 4 GF and 0 GA.

It seems very clear that switching the line was a big issue last year for Kerins. He had two key line combinations for his 5 games last year, didn't play more than 1 minute with any other line combo.

Kerins + Pelletier + Sharangovich = 30 minutes, 52.8% xGF, 4 GF 0 GA

Kerins + Kuzmenko + Sharangovich = 13 minutes, 15.2% xGF, 0 GF 1 GA

Seems like changing up the line combo was a big part of Kerins struggles. If I'm not mistaken Kuzmenko was at the end of his time as a Flame and traded within like a week of that too.

And why do those two poor games mean he doesn't get another look eventually?

Ryan Lomberg was 3.13% xGF against Winnipeg last week - why didn't he immediately get sent down?

Quite simply it was the last two games and a progression downward in the last three.

He looked lost and over his skis and they made the expected decision.

[GioforPM]

For Kerins to get the look some people want IMO Zary has to come out of the lineup. That's how he was in last year. I doubt anyone would learn anything if he's on the 4th line.

I'm happy to give him a try but I think people make too much of his debut last year, where he got a couple points by (a) passing to Pelletier on the boards, who put a shot on net that Mrazek should have had, and (b) by an ordinary pass to the point, leading to a bad rebound that got shoved in. His AHL stats this year are undoubtedly good, but not really better than Gridin or Hunt.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Quite simply it was the last two games and a progression downward in the last three.

He looked lost and over his skis and they made the expected decision.

Another Flames center had a similar trend last year in his first 5 games as a Flame:

43.4% xGF
66.0 % xGF
69.1% xGF
4.88% xGF
11.43% xGF

They should have sent down Justin Kirkland too based on those first 5 games...in fact 5 of his first 10 games as a Flame were below 15% xGF. Guess he wasn't over his skis though, it's too bad Rory Kerins didn't play junior hockey for Ryan Huska, he might get more of a look.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

For Kerins to get the look some people want IMO Zary has to come out of the lineup. That's how he was in last year. I doubt anyone would learn anything if he's on the 4th line.

Disagree.

If they set up their lines like this:

Huberdeau - Kadri - Frost
Honzek - Backlund - Coleman
Sharangovich - Zary - Coronato
Farabee - Kerins - Klapka

You could learn what you have with Kerins. Acutally a good spot to work him in. Sheltered minutes on the 4th line, with two big physical wingers that help him in some of the areas he struggles, and both guys can drive play too.

But the crux of the issue remains the coaches reluctance to take Lomberg and Kirkland out of the lineup.

And I'll be honest...I don't the reluctance to take Lomberg out for a couple games. I get he's a great locker room guy, but really what is he on the ice.

He's not big and intimidating, he's willing to fight but generally doesn't win and can't go against other teams heavyweights.
He's not great defensively, doesn't PK, and generally looks pretty poor in his own defensive zone coverage.
He's going to contribute nothing offensively.
He's physical is about the only thing at this point as he's still near the top of league forwards in hits, but that's about it.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Another Flames center had a similar trend last year in his first 5 games as a Flame:

43.4% xGF
66.0 % xGF
69.1% xGF
4.88% xGF
11.43% xGF

They should have sent down Justin Kirkland too based on those first 5 games...in fact 5 of his first 10 games as a Flame were below 15% xGF.



Disagree.

If they set up their lines like this:

Huberdeau - Kadri - Frost
Honzek - Backlund - Coleman
Sharangovich - Zary - Coleman
Farabee - Kerins - Klapka

You could learn what you have with Kerins. Acutally a good spot to work him in. Sheltered minutes on the 4th line, with two big physical wingers that help him in some of the areas he struggles, and both guys can drive play too.

Farabee deserves better than that right now. They also need Kirkland to kill penalties. Plus your team lacks a Coronato. I suppose you have him 3rd line?

You can't shelter everyone except Backlund. Who is getting the D zone starts?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Farabee deserves better than that right now. They also need Kirkland to kill penalties. Plus your team lacks a Coronato. I suppose you have him 3rd line?

You can't shelter everyone except Backlund. Who is getting the D zone starts?

Well to be honest that's not how I'd set it up - just was basing it on the most recent lines.

I think there is a chance to have 4 pairs of forwards that work together and then you fit in the RW as it makes sense. And have two more sheltered lines, and two more defensively sound lines.

Huberdeau - Kadri: 52.7% xGF in 728 minutes together, 64% offensive zone starts. This line isn't necessarily sheltered, but is a line you want getting more o-zone time.

Coleman - Backlund: 53.4% xGF in 907 minutes together, 37.7% offensive zone starts. Don't think there is too much to say about this pair.

Farabee - Frost: 59.1% xGF in 138 minutes together, 56% offensive zone starts. To me this is the line that's usage can change. JFRESH card has Frost as 90th percentile for defense in his time in Philly and Calgary. To me Farabee-Frost is a younger version of Coleman-Backlund, let's embrace that. Also a lot of their offensive success comes off the rush and I think both are good in transition - so able to eat some more defensive starts.

Sharangovich - Kerins: I think Sharangovich benefits from sheltered minutes, and also stats show he's much more effective on LW. They showed some chemistry together when they had Pelletier on the other side in Kerins first call up (52.8% xGF). It's worth a shot for a team lacking offense.

Then Coronato, Zary, Klapka, and Honzek fit in as RWs.

There were numbers shared that Zary's numbers are much better at RW than they were at C or LW...so keep him on the RW which is an area of need. Coronato and Klapka are natural RWs. Honzek seems to be able to play there too.

So to start something like:

Huberdeau - Kadri - Zary: Zary has had success with Kadri, could faciliate offense. Alternatively Klapka has looked good on this line.

Farabee - Frost - Coronato : Think this line could really click. Give them time to find chemisty and work together.

Coleman - Backlund - Honzek: No real explaination needed

Sharangovich - Kerins - Klapka: Think they could give teams some headaches as a skilled 4th line. Klapka is a pretty good play driver at this point.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Another Flames center had a similar trend last year in his first 5 games as a Flame:

43.4% xGF
66.0 % xGF
69.1% xGF
4.88% xGF
11.43% xGF

They should have sent down Justin Kirkland too based on those first 5 games...in fact 5 of his first 10 games as a Flame were below 15% xGF. Guess he wasn't over his skis though, it's too bad Rory Kerins didn't play junior hockey for Ryan Huska, he might get more of a look.

You're never going to get me to defend Justin Kirkland. I don't think he brings much at this level.

I have seen what he sees in Dryden Hunt though. But only in a fourth line capacity.

I don't think anyone thinks Kerins is a developed two way 200 foot player. Add in a lack of foot speed and size and it's hard to pave a way to a role at the NHL level.

He got off to a good start in camp and they gave him more rope, which is all he could ask for. His game came off and he got cut.

He'll get another look.

[PaperBagger'14]

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Quite simply it was the last two games and a progression downward in the last three.

He looked lost and over his skis and they made the expected decision.

He was one of a small handful of players chipping in offense at the time, and from a depth position.

And IIRC scoring dried up for a couple weeks right after he was sent down

Eventually prompting the Flyers trade.

He was held off the ice after the first period in his fifth game. There was hardly even a last game for him. If he played the full game maybe he stays a point per game in his 'unconvincing' nhl stint.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by paperbagger'14

hahaha...