Francis: It's time for the Flames to get serious about bottoming out

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I think these reactionary/castastorsizing comments don’t make much sense. If Andersson was worth a 1st at the beginning of the season, what is he worth now? A third? If the Flames keep losing will he only be worth future considerations at the deadline? Does the same logic apply to Kadri and Coleman? Hell, does it apply to Wolf, Coronato and Parekh?

‘Pain catastrophizing is the tendency to describe a pain experience in more exaggerated terms than the average person, to ruminate on it more, and/or to feel more helpless about the experience.’

You’ve welcome CP!

[Vinny01]

The season is lost and it sucks to be completely out of it before Halloween but this team needed a lot to go right to make it to the playoffs. They were a gritty hard working team that got great goaltending last year and snuck up on everyone.

To me one of the most frustrating parts of being a Flames fan over the past decade and change has been the inconsistent performance year over year. The last rebuild started as we would expect pick 6th, pick 4th, then hopefully get lucky when the generational superstar is at the top of a loaded draft. Instead the Flames go on a run to the second round largely lead by some young players. Next year they are bottom 5 in the league. They then make the playoffs and follow that up with a miss. They jump to the top of the league standings, and are back on the bubble, they miss the playoffs, they win the division again, they miss on the bubble, they pick 9th overall, they just barely miss again, and now look poised to bottom out.

I thought this was going to be a rough year and I just want the team to lean into it and build for next year and beyond.

[Badgers Nose]

Yeah, the afterburner guys said we’d have to play .632 hockey just to get 96 points. Only the eight very best teams did that last year. I don’t see a run like that happening for this group.

The only thing remaining is moving the vets. Otherwise, I think Conroy has pretty much started the rebuild last year.

[Mr.Coffee]

Find the timing of this comment very weird, if it’s true that Francis is a “mouthpiece”.

It’s been obvious for a long time what needs to happen and I kind of thought they were already doing it just not publicly acknowledging it (which I also thought was weird).

Like yeah, ####ing obviously holy smokes. If the brain trust is just coming to this strategic realization now we are extremely screwed.

Like this comment should have been made 2 years ago.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Find the timing of this comment very weird, if it’s true that Francis is a “mouthpiece”.

It’s been obvious for a long time what needs to happen and I kind of thought they were already doing it just not publicly acknowledging it (which I also thought was weird).

Like yeah, ####ing obviously holy smokes. If the brain trust is just coming to this strategic realization now we are extremely screwed.

Like this comment should have been made 2 years ago.

Once again go with the actions.

Trading UFAs, trading Markstrom, Toffoli and Mangiapane "early", not using cap space, not adding to a team in the mix at last year's deadline.

This is potentially an ownership group that is testing the appetite for being more aggressive in a rebuild that they're already firmly in.

[Badgers Nose]

A billionaire that expects unreasonable results from his businesses finally learns that it doesn’t work in elite sports.

Yeah, it seems this should have been learned long ago.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

The season is lost and it sucks to be completely out of it before Halloween but this team needed a lot to go right to make it to the playoffs. They were a gritty hard working team that got great goaltending last year and snuck up on everyone.

To me one of the most frustrating parts of being a Flames fan over the past decade and change has been the inconsistent performance year over year. The last rebuild started as we would expect pick 6th, pick 4th, then hopefully get lucky when the generational superstar is at the top of a loaded draft. Instead the Flames go on a run to the second round largely lead by some young players. Next year they are bottom 5 in the league. They then make the playoffs and follow that up with a miss. They jump to the top of the league standings, and are back on the bubble, they miss the playoffs, they win the division again, they miss on the bubble, they pick 9th overall, they just barely miss again, and now look poised to bottom out.

I thought this was going to be a rough year and I just want the team to lean into it and build for next year and beyond.

True contenders are good every year until their run at the top ends. Flames are the middle team just below a true contender. Any given year, a middle team can put it all together and win enough games to win the division or the conference. But if you fall out of the playoffs the next year, you were never a contender unless players leave or major injuries cause you to fall.

In the last 16 years

Flames have made it to the 2nd round - 2 times
Playoffs - 5 times
Missed playoffs - 11 times
100+ points - 2 times
90+ - 9 times

90-point season 9 times in 16 years but only 5 playoff seasons. 7 times 90+ but only 2 100+ seasons? Every year fans are just hoping for a middle team to overachieve so we can blindly hope to beat teams that we all know we won't come playoff time.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Once again go with the actions.

Trading UFAs, trading Markstrom, Toffoli and Mangiapane "early", not using cap space, not adding to a team in the mix at last year's deadline.

This is potentially an ownership group that is testing the appetite for being more aggressive in a rebuild that they're already firmly in.

Which if you’re right is also weird. Let’s test the appetite of something that we’re already in.

I’m also on the fence on the whole “actions” thing. Like, sorta. They traded some guys. Could they have done more? Yes. Did they do nothing? No. Would a half approach ever have worked? No, not IMO.


I know that AaronGavey guy will now chime in and say it’s been the greatest rebuild ever conducted but the problem is nobody believes him and he never provides back up / data to explain why.

It’s pretty clear holding onto Ras was a mistake. It was actually quite obvious as well at the trade deadline. I’m not that smart and these things seem strategically quite obvious. I think what a lot of people are missing is the greed factor. Playoff revenue is too tasty.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Yeah, the afterburner guys said we’d have to play .632 hockey just to get 96 points. Only the eight very best teams did that last year. I don’t see a run like that happening for this group.

The only thing remaining is moving the vets. Otherwise, I think Conroy has pretty much started the rebuild last year.

Yeah the best thing to do is bookend it a bit.

I'm actually going to go 97 points for playoffs - since they were burned with 96 points last year.

So right now Flames have 3 out of a potential 16 points (.188) and have 74 games and 148 points remaining.

Playoffs - 97 points - 94 points in remaining 74 games - .635 points percentage

Top 10 Pick - 81 points - 78 points in remaining 74 games - .527 points percentage

Top 5 Pick - 70 points - 63 points in remaining 74 games - 0.425 points percentage

So at this point I feel like the bad start has already made playoffs pretty much impossible.

Last year after their hot start they were .574 in their final 74 games, so even with strong play last year, where they were really strong in the final 20 games (.700 in the final 20 games), they weren't close to .635 over that longer stretch.

At this point I'm still not sure they are bad enough to play .425 for the remainder of the season, especially once this irregularly tough start to the season starts to normalize and they face some easier teams, but they still have 4 games before that happens and the hole might get even deeper.

So to me at this point finishing in that range where they pick 6-10 ranges still seems most likely...unless they do trade away somebody like Andersson sooner rather than later...because the defense is not set up to lose him at all with how some of the alternatives are playing.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Potentially testing the reaction to what they are internally discussing?

Here's the reality: Rebuild is upon them, whether they'd risk it or not.

Not acknowledging reality would be ill-advised.

This is their chance to be opportunistic - and yeah, I mean Kadri. All we've heard is that (pretty much) the entire league is looking for centres of Kadri's caliber. I think the time to have that conversation is now.

[GioforPM]

"Management won't rebuild - they suck" [Signs that management is rebuilding.] "They should have said this before - they suck".

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Yeah, no one is paying a lot for Hanley but I could see a team needing cheap extra hands at the TDL grabbing him for a 3rd or 4th round pick.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Which if you’re right is also weird. Let’s test the appetite of something that we’re already in.

I’m also on the fence on the whole “actions” thing. Like, sorta. They traded some guys. Could they have done more? Yes. Did they do nothing? No. Would a half approach ever have worked? No, not IMO.


I know that AaronGavey guy will now chime in and say it’s been the greatest rebuild ever conducted but the problem is nobody believes him and he never provides back up / data to explain why.

It’s pretty clear holding onto Ras was a mistake. It was actually quite obvious as well at the trade deadline. I’m not that smart and these things seem strategically quite obvious. I think what a lot of people are missing is the greed factor. Playoff revenue is too tasty.

You missed the "more aggressive" part.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Which if you’re right is also weird. Let’s test the appetite of something that we’re already in.

I’m also on the fence on the whole “actions” thing. Like, sorta. They traded some guys. Could they have done more? Yes. Did they do nothing? No. Would a half approach ever have worked? No, not IMO.


I know that AaronGavey guy will now chime in and say it’s been the greatest rebuild ever conducted but the problem is nobody believes him and he never provides back up / data to explain why.

It’s pretty clear holding onto Ras was a mistake. It was actually quite obvious as well at the trade deadline. I’m not that smart and these things seem strategically quite obvious. I think what a lot of people are missing is the greed factor. Playoff revenue is too tasty.

100%

Re: Rasmus current trade value. Definitely in decline:
- Less contract to play with. Last TDL you had 2 playoff runs of rasmus and room to convince him to sign. This year he's a pure rental unless you trade with a contract signing (limiting your market to places he wants to extend.)
- Retention is less valuable because of contract length
- His play has been dog #### (playing 'well' -disagree- on the worst team in the league is basically meaningless)
- There are other RD on the market now where there were less before


I would make a strong bet with Jiri or TOFan that we will not get a 1st for Rasmus.
-

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Once again go with the actions.

Trading UFAs, trading Markstrom, Toffoli and Mangiapane "early", not using cap space, not adding to a team in the mix at last year's deadline.

This is potentially an ownership group that is testing the appetite for being more aggressive in a rebuild that they're already firmly in.

Why not believe what conroy and all other insiders are saying instead of esoterically believing that they are all lying to eachother for... reasons?

No they are telling the truth. They weren't trying to rebuild they have just failed (much to our fortune, ultimately.)

[Johnny Makarov]

It's not gonna work unless we play Cooley in every single game against the Ducks, Sharks, Crackin, Kings and Canucks.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

100%
I would make a strong bet with Jiri or TOFan that we will not get a 1st for Rasmus.
-

I hate internet bets, but if it's a 'gentleman's bet' meaning no stakes, I'll take it.
I think they get a late 1st and a B prospect.

If they get Bischel from Dallas though that still counts as a 1st right?

[Monahammer]

My standard bet is $1.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Here's the reality: Rebuild is upon them, whether they'd risk it or not.

Not acknowledging reality would be ill-advised.

This is their chance to be opportunistic - and yeah, I mean Kadri. All we've heard is that (pretty much) the entire league is looking for centres of Kadri's caliber. I think the time to have that conversation is now.

Conroy needs to be ruthless. Have those convos with all vets this week.any guys with trade protection, sell them on a move and get a list in writing.

By the time he needs to worry about attracting talent we’ll have a top tier stadium and some elite skaters that guys will want to play with.

[Monahammer]

Yes, I would count Bischel as a 1st but perhaps an asterisk haha.