Francis: It's time for the Flames to get serious about bottoming out

[Matty81]

The flames are going to be bad finally whether ownership and mgmt wants it or not. The veterans are declining and the guys in their mid 20s they acquired instead of futures are not great or consistent players.

The problem for the flames is how poorly the scouting team has done at the drafts beyond the 1st for the last decade. especially the 2nd and 3rd round picks


The last 3 classes jury is out but it doesn't seem like the flames hit any home runs with their mid to late rounders. And everything from the year they drafted topi ronni in the 2nd backwards looks bad. Wolf is the only late round gem who has turned into an impact nhler they have found in a decade.

When you look at how teams like mtl have used their picks outside the 1st they have an absolutely massive advantage on the flames in terms of the quality of their scouting.

Flames rebuild gonna take an extra long time if we are solely relying on our early firsts like the oilers did. if i were murray i would invest money in chasing the best and brightest there and change who gets to make the decisions as they have a recent track record of inept drafting that has hurt just as much as the refusal to tear down that pisses everyone off so much

[Wastedyouth]

"When the worst person you know says something you agree with" moment here with Francis.

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by Goriders

In my mind the Flames don’t have many veterans worth trading anymore. Most of them are pretty old.

- Coleman
- Andersson
- Kadri
- Weegar

Outside of that you have younger guys you probably don’t want to trade:

- Bahl
- Wolf
- Coronato
- Honzek
- Parekh
- Gridin
- Klapka
- Pospisil
- Zary

Guys who for various reasons at this point are untradeable:

- Frost
- Farabee
- Huberdeau
- Backlund
- Cooley
- Sharangovich

And scrubs no one would probably ask about

- Bean
- Pachal
- Hanley
- Lomberg
- Kirkland

So not that many bullets left in the chamber to get 1st round picks. Maybe 3 or 4. If you pump all of them out this season what do you do next year?

Even if you get first round picks for the 4 appealing vets they are going to be in the top half of the draft. 16-32 range.

Flames are running out of bullets.

Agree in principle.
I would argue that Frost is very tradable, especially if he eventually finds his scoring touch. Young, middle-six, defensively responsible centre - could get a good return if he begins to score consistently.

I would also argue that some of the younger guys are also tradable if the right package came along. Zary, Honzek, Bahl, Klapka & Pospisil all have value and are unlikely to be critical members of Calgary's core when we are eventually competitive. If a deal makes sense and one of these players needs to be included, I am not shedding tears.

Finally, Cooley belongs in the scrubs category, whereas Hanley belongs in the veteran trade chip one.

[GioforPM]

The Flames amateur scouting has been pretty good. The last 3 rounds is pretty recent to be looking for home runs, since most guys outside the first round take more than that to get into the NHL.

Go back a better time frame and you have Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, Fox, Dube, Pospisil, Wolf. And you have guys that a lot of posters think should be NHLers - Solovyev, Kerins, Kuznetsov. And time will tell but I think they killed it the last couple drafts with late firsts and beyond.

[Funkhouser]

The Flames defacto core going forward the next few years (mix of untradables, key leaders and young potential):

Wolf
Parekh
Gridin
Coronato
Huberdeau
Weegar
Backlund
Sharongovich

Every other roster player should be on the table.

[Muta]

Even if we finished bottom of the league, the chances of actually winning the lottery and landing McKenna are still only 1/4. Realistically, the Flames will likely not land McKenna, simply by probabilities alone. We, can however, start really discussing the other top-10 (or even top-5) candidates in the 2026 draft and get invested in them too, as that seems to be where we will likely end up.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Matty81

The flames are going to be bad finally whether ownership and mgmt wants it or not. The veterans are declining and the guys in their mid 20s they acquired instead of futures are not great or consistent players.

The problem for the flames is how poorly the scouting team has done at the drafts beyond the 1st for the last decade. The last 3 classes jury is out but it doesn't seem like the flames hit any home runs with their mid to late rounders. And everything from the year they drafted topi ronni in the 2nd backwards looks bad. Wolf is the only late round gem who has turned into an impact nhler they have found in a decade.

When you look at how teams like mtl and dallas have used their picks outside the 1st they have an absolutely massive advantage on the flames in terms of the quality of their scouting.

Flames rebuild gonna take an extra long time if we are solely relying on our early firsts like the oilers did. if i were murray i would invest money in chasing the best and brightest there and change who gets to make the decisions as they have a recent track record of inept drafting that has hurt just as much as the refusal to tear down that pisses everyone off so much

Wolf, Fox, Mangiapane, Andersson, and then to a lesser extent Pospisil, Dube, Ruzicka, Kylington.

Then you’ve got rookies who are still waiting-and-see territory in Kerins, Kuznetsov, and Stromgren.

I think you’re confusing the issue. Treliving traded away a lot of picks and it’s harder to hit in that scenario. They found lots of talent beyond the 1st round.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Funkhouser

Agree in principle.
I would argue that Frost is very tradable, especially if he eventually finds his scoring touch. Young, middle-six, defensively responsible centre - could get a good return if he begins to score consistently.

I would also argue that some of the younger guys are also tradable if the right package came along. Zary, Honzek, Bahl, Klapka & Pospisil all have value and are unlikely to be critical members of Calgary's core when we are eventually competitive. If a deal makes sense and one of these players needs to be included, I am not shedding tears.

Finally, Cooley belongs in the scrubs category, whereas Hanley belongs in the veteran trade chip one.

Yeah, no one is paying a lot for Hanley but I could see a team needing cheap extra hands at the TDL grabbing him for a 3rd or 4th round pick.

[Toonage]

I'll say this, yes the Flames should embrace a lost season or two but when they trade the vets and bring the kids up get ready for a winning streak that will skew the lottery standings lol.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Matty81

The flames are going to be bad finally whether ownership and mgmt wants it or not. The veterans are declining and the guys in their mid 20s they acquired instead of futures are not great or consistent players.

The problem for the flames is how poorly the scouting team has done at the drafts beyond the 1st for the last decade. especially the 2nd and 3rd round picks


The last 3 classes jury is out but it doesn't seem like the flames hit any home runs with their mid to late rounders. And everything from the year they drafted topi ronni in the 2nd backwards looks bad. Wolf is the only late round gem who has turned into an impact nhler they have found in a decade.

When you look at how teams like mtl have used their picks outside the 1st they have an absolutely massive advantage on the flames in terms of the quality of their scouting.

Flames rebuild gonna take an extra long time if we are solely relying on our early firsts like the oilers did. if i were murray i would invest money in chasing the best and brightest there and change who gets to make the decisions as they have a recent track record of inept drafting that has hurt just as much as the refusal to tear down that pisses everyone off so much

Not sure I'd agree.

You are saying jury is out on the last three ... and I agree, but they were lauded as huge hauls for the team past the first round.

Then looking back from there I don't see a scouting staff that can't draft past the first, I see a scouting staff with very little 2nd and 3rd round selections to work with.

[Kipper_3434]

Originally Posted by jg13

The most Flames thing to happen would be to draft McKenna and him bust

How? I can't think of a single example that would make having a franchise 1OA bust be a Flames thing. More like an Oilers thing.

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The Flames amateur scouting has been pretty good. The last 3 rounds is pretty recent to be looking for home runs, since most guys outside the first round take more than that to get into the NHL.

Go back a better time frame and you have Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, Fox, Dube, Pospisil, Wolf. And you have guys that a lot of posters think should be NHLers - Solovyev, Kerins, Kuznetsov. And time will tell but I think they killed it the last couple drafts with late firsts and beyond.

I would argue the Flames are the best team in the NHL at drafting outside the first 2 rounds. The only issue is it typically takes 5 years to be established.

2010: Ferland (5th)
2011: Gaudreau (4th), Brossoit (6th)
2012: Kulak (4th)
2015: Mangiapane (6th)
2016: Fox (3rd)
2018: Pospisil (4th)
2019: Wolf (7th)
2020: Kerins (6th), Soloyov (7th)

I can't think of another team that drafts this well in later rounds. This bodes well for the Flames if we are able to hit on some high draft picks and supplement them with later depth.

Lets hope Wyttenbach, Mews, Laing, Jamieson, Suniev, Misa, etc. can continue this trend!

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

How? I can't think of a single example that would make having a franchise 1OA bust be a Flames thing. More like an Oilers thing.

I think it's more in the vein of "Nothing good ever happens to the Flames" - which although is not technically true... the sentiment does feel right.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by jg13

The most Flames thing to happen would be to draft McKenna and him bust

drafting 1st overall (or even top 3) is not a Flames thing, so maybe let's try it for once and see how it goes

[iggyloob12]

Originally Posted by dino7c

His example is to draft Lane Hutson in the 2nd round lol

Juraj Slafkovsky I get

The overall point was you need a high draft pick to get top talent, draft well in your other opportunities, develop well, and make savvy trades. Flames are doing most of that outside of a high draft pick and, outside of the Lindholm package, solid trades.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by TOfan

How do people think trade value works in the NHL?

Dropping daily? How? Why?

There are some conflicting views on this. In another thread, some argued that Kuzmenko had zero value when Conroy tarded him away and after seven decent games with the Flyers he was worth a 3rd round pick.

Depends what you want to believe but teams trading for people do send pro scouts to watch them so presumably how they play in those games does matter.

[iggyloob12]

nm

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by Funkhouser

I would argue the Flames are the best team in the NHL at drafting outside the first 2 rounds. The only issue is it typically takes 5 years to be established.

2010: Ferland (5th)
2011: Gaudreau (4th), Brossoit (6th)
2012: Kulak (4th)
2015: Mangiapane (6th)
2016: Fox (3rd)
2018: Pospisil (4th)
2019: Wolf (7th)
2020: Kerins (6th), Soloyov (7th)

I can't think of another team that drafts this well in later rounds. This bodes well for the Flames if we are able to hit on some high draft picks and supplement them with later depth.

Lets hope Wyttenbach, Mews, Laing, Jamieson, Suniev, Misa, etc. can continue this trend!

I should mention that Dallas seems to thrive in the late first and second rounds, continually finding stars (Wyatt, Stankhoven, Oetenger, etc) beyond the top 15 picks.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The Flames amateur scouting has been pretty good. The last 3 rounds is pretty recent to be looking for home runs, since most guys outside the first round take more than that to get into the NHL.

Go back a better time frame and you have Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, Fox, Dube, Pospisil, Wolf. And you have guys that a lot of posters think should be NHLers - Solovyev, Kerins, Kuznetsov. And time will tell but I think they killed it the last couple drafts with late firsts and beyond.

I don't know if they have killed it as we won't know until these players make the NHL. You can go back over the decade prospect rankings were we gush over a lot of prospects that didn't make it and I expect most of the players picked in the last few drafts won't make it as the odds of players picked after the first round becoming core pieces are pretty slim.

42.3% of NHL regulars were drafted in the first round so that's clearly the round of the draft where a teams need to hit their mark. After that it's gravy as the Dallas Stars are the exception to the norm with their later drafting prowess. The Jets have actually drafted poorly in the later rounds (2nd round in particular) but they have been so good at hitting on their first round picks over the years that they have managed to build a perennial playoff team.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't know if they have killed it as we won't know until these players make the NHL. You can go back over the decade prospect rankings were we gush over a lot of prospects that didn't make it and I expect most of the players picked in the last few drafts won't make it as the odds of players picked after the first round becoming core pieces are pretty slim.

42.3% of NHL regulars were drafted in the first round so that's clearly the round of the draft where a teams need to hit their mark. After that it's gravy as the Dallas Stars are the exception to the norm with their later drafting prowess. The Jets have actually drafted poorly in the later rounds (2nd round in particular) but they have been so good at hitting on their first round picks over the years that they have managed to build a perennial playoff team.

Well he did say "time will tell"