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Old 10-08-2025, 12:51 PM   #7021
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That was a 100MPH pitch that was high and inside and somehow Judge turned on it.

Also the fastest pitch he hit for a HR in his career.
Blake Murphy who is big into this stuff said he had a better chance of reaching for a pitch on the outside and hitting it than he did on that pitch.
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Old 10-08-2025, 12:52 PM   #7022
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You have to be careful not just to concede this game IMO

momentum is a heck of a thing
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Old 10-08-2025, 12:57 PM   #7023
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Agreed. Even if the odds feel stacked against...its still baseball. The Rockies can beat the Dodgers on any given day.

The Jays are certainly capable of getting this done.
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Old 10-08-2025, 12:59 PM   #7024
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Blake Murphy who is big into this stuff said he had a better chance of reaching for a pitch on the outside and hitting it than he did on that pitch.
Honestly Judge either made the greatest guess ever, got lucky, or somehow Varland tipped that pitch.

There is no real way a guy should be able to get to that pitch inside at 100 MPH if he's reacting.

Either a great guess or somehow that was labelled by Varland pre-pitch.
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:02 PM   #7025
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Looking at it now it might have been best to walk him and take your chances with Bellinger but I get why they didn't. Walk him and you risk it being even more of a big inning. Pitch to him and at worse it's tied and you still have a chance.

He was also extremely lucky that was a homerun. Not just because it hitting the foul pole but because there was something like a 90-95% chance with whatever data they use that where that pitch ended up doesn't turn out to be a homerun. 99 out of a 100 times he probably doesn't do that.

I could argue that for Judge it definitely is more than 99 out of 100 times. The problem is that they Jays didn't change the look with a ball away before going inside. At and 0-2 count with Judge you need to be very careful with pitch order and selection. But yes walk him when you have the chance and definitely don't walk the batters in front of him!
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:02 PM   #7026
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An interesting wrinkle re: Gausman. I guess he hasn’t thrown his typical bullpen session. One could infer from this that he is certainly on the table as an option.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1975983502631035378
or could it just be delayed a day given the extra day of rest?
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:05 PM   #7027
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Blake Murphy who is big into this stuff said he had a better chance of reaching for a pitch on the outside and hitting it than he did on that pitch.
Yeah. Even if it was tipped and he knew it was coning it was a great swing.

If he was just reacting it's probably one of the greatest swings from a degree of difficulty point of view ever.
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:13 PM   #7028
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https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/co...hr_it_was_off/

It was really a one of a kind hit.

First HR in the statcast era that came off a 99+ MPH pitch combined with a pitch being 1.2 feet inside.

Just absurd that Judge hit that for a HR

Honestly that's the type of hit that changes a series. I really hope it doesn't but man that really felt like a defining moment for Judge.

Last edited by SuperMatt18; 10-08-2025 at 01:19 PM.
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:15 PM   #7029
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Have they done any official testing on Judge to make sure he meets the criteria for a creature that can legally compete in the MLB? I like that we are seeing and (hopefully) beating the best version of that dude, he's got insane size and talent.
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:20 PM   #7030
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Well it's not unreasonable to think Judge was looking for a fastball up and in. Still hitting one like that the way he did is something that maybe 3 people in the world might be able to do. Tough to fault Varland too much there...I guess he needed to get furher up and in.

Must say Judge looks like Super Mario compared to everyone else. The height is one thing, but all of him including his giant head looks like it's a normal 5'9 person and than proportionally scaled up.
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:29 PM   #7031
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Honestly there is probably a 99.9% chance that pitch isn't a home run, but it's why they play the games.

That was a 100MPH pitch that was high and inside and somehow Judge turned on it.

Also the fastest pitch he hit for a HR in his career.

Baseball is fun because weird things happen sometimes, that HR is one of those weird things. Varland makes that pitch 100 times and maybe it gets hit for a HR once.
The more 100 MPH pitches there are the higher the chances of this happening in the future as batters adapt. I don't anticipate MLB teams going back to 85 MPH junkballers for half their rotation
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:37 PM   #7032
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I don't anticipate MLB teams going back to 85 MPH junkballers for half their rotation
Too late to sign Josh Towers for this series?
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:41 PM   #7033
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Barger at 4 is a surprise. As is Santander back in the outfield.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1976008057332379962
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:52 PM   #7034
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I don't understand putting Santander back in the field AT ALL.
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Old 10-08-2025, 01:54 PM   #7035
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I don't understand most things Scheinder does. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. It just feels like when it doesn't it's catastrophic.
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Old 10-08-2025, 02:09 PM   #7036
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Barger at 4 is a surprise. As is Santander back in the outfield.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1976008057332379962

I would Springer in the field and Santander at DH. It’s not like he would be worse in the field and might take his mind off his slump
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Old 10-08-2025, 02:19 PM   #7037
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Yeah also don't love Davis Schneider not starting as he was great last night.

But they are kind of doing what they did all season in terms of LH / RH matchups so is what it is.
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Old 10-08-2025, 02:25 PM   #7038
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I get the LH/RH matchups but truly what the hell is Santander doing playing the field over Springer? Barger looked so scared last night too with his open mouth gaze, that I'm just not sure if he'll do anything well today. I assume he's only there because of the minimal exposure to Schittler, but still.
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Old 10-08-2025, 02:33 PM   #7039
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Yeah, Springer's not the outfielder he once was but I'm pretty sure he could still make a catch with a 90% catch rate.
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Old 10-08-2025, 02:59 PM   #7040
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Yeah, Springer's not the outfielder he once was but I'm pretty sure he could still make a catch with a 90% catch rate.
Yeah, nobody thinks Springer is going to win a gold glove but I think he's a better option than Santander in the field.
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