[Signing] McDavid (2 yrs, $12.5mil AAV) and Walman ($7mi x7) sign extensions with Oilers

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

Their chance of winning a cup is going to be ~8% this year, and 15%-20% each of the next two years. So the glass half full is that there's a ~2/3 chance they won't win a cup in any of the next three seasons.

You can't be serious lol...those would be the greatest odds of all time.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

They're going to be cup favorites next year and the year after. And it's not going to be particularly close. I hope they don't win, but the facts are what they are.

They are not better than last year, when they got lucky to get in and were beaten handily by Fla.

They replaced Perry (30p), Skinner (29), Arvidsson (27) and Brown (30) with Mangiapane (28), Frederick (15)and Lazar (5). Aside from that they are the same team.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

You also said this:

We read it all the first time. Quoting all of that is lame.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I really like how some of you just choose to reject realism and live in pocket dimensions of reality some times. I want to know how to divorce myself from facts and likely consequences/ outcomes so easily, it would be very helpful for my every day life.

There were 2 basic outcomes for McDavid this season: He doesn't re-sign and becomes a free agent (Good!), or he does (doesn't matter for how long) and we continue to have to deal with him and the impacts of Edmonton having him for X amount of years (Bad!).

It has now crystalized around the worse of the 2 options. It's not a positive outcome. That's ok, it's not like it's going to be the end of the world, no one's life is exploding as a consequence of this, but it's OK to acknowledge that this is not a good outcome for flames fans.

There were more than two basic outcomes. He could walk or he could re-sign and the outcomes are based on how many years he extended. 2 years is a much better outcome than 3,4,5,6,7. It's not a great outcome but it's far from the worst.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I really like how some of you just choose to reject realism and live in pocket dimensions of reality some times. I want to know how to divorce myself from facts and likely consequences/ outcomes so easily, it would be very helpful for my every day life.

There were 2 basic outcomes for McDavid this season: He doesn't re-sign and becomes a free agent (Good!), or he does (doesn't matter for how long) and we continue to have to deal with him and the impacts of Edmonton having him for X amount of years (Bad!).

It has now crystalized around the worse of the 2 options. It's not a positive outcome. That's ok, it's not like it's going to be the end of the world, no one's life is exploding as a consequence of this, but it's OK to acknowledge that this is not a good outcome for flames fans.

But isn't the X being 2 better than the X being 3 or 4 or 5?

If someone doesn't agree with you that doesn't mean they are "rejecting reality" but you do you.

[Joborule]

Very surprising that he would sign under market value. Even moreso for a place like Edmonton. He must actually like it there if it was willing to extend a couple more years at a discount.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Their depth is godawful this year. Their top wingers (outside of Leon playing one), would be bottom 6 on most playoff teams.

Gave up some good leadership and veteran skill. Probably eliminated earlier as a result.

Then you're down to two bullets left in the chamber and every one even older.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

There were more than two basic outcomes. He could walk or he could re-sign and the outcomes are based on how many years he extended. 2 years is a much better outcome than 3,4,5,6,7. It's not a great outcome but it's far from the worst.

This contract (and some of their others) actually make it likely he is gone in three seasons. They are overpaying bums on term...like a year ago the idea of a two year McDavid deal would have people howling. Now he has no guilt, him leaving is the most likely scenrio in a couple years.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

They're going to be cup favorites next year and the year after. And it's not going to be particularly close. I hope they don't win, but the facts are what they are.

The oilers lineup is

Hyman McDavid Federic
RNH Draisaitl Mangiapane
Janmark Henrique Kapanen
Podkolzin Philp Savoie

Hyman is 33
RNH turns 33 this year
Ekholm is 35
Nurse just sucks
Walman had to have a 2nd round pick attached to him for Detroit to move him in June 2024
Henrique is 35 coming off a 27 point season
Janmark turns 33 in a couple months coming off a 2 goal season
Kapanen has had 6 goals in each of the past two seasons.

Might want to pump the brakes a bit on Cup favourites for the next two years. They lost a 19 goal man, a 13 goal man, a 16 goal man, a 15 goal man and he replaced them with nothing. I do have them as a wild card team though, behind Vegas, Vancouver and the Kings in the Pacific.

[Parallex]

This is dumb. Connor McDavid is now Connor McStupid.

He's the premier player in the league... he should be out there setting the bar for what his contemporaries could be getting paid. The contract should have been an easy negotiation... the team writes down max money and max term and all the fringe benefits and he either signs it or he doesn't. Every agent and player union rep should be throwing rotten tomato's at him every opportunity they get.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The oilers lineup is

Hyman McDavid Federic
RNH Draisaitl Mangiapane
Janmark Henrique Kapanen
Podkolzin Philp Savoie

Hyman is 33
RNH turns 33 this year
Ekholm is 35
Nurse just sucks
Walman had to have a 2nd round pick attached to him for Detroit to move him in June 2024
Henrique is 35 coming off a 27 point season
Janmark turns 33 in a couple months coming off a 2 goal season
Kapanen has had 6 goals in each of the past two seasons.

Might want to pump the brakes a bit on Cup favourites for the next two years. They lost a 19 goal man, a 13 goal man, a 16 goal man, a 15 goal man and he replaced them with nothing.

The next two seasons. Not this season. Sorry for any confusion. Project forward the cap and see what it implies with their existing contracts and what they can go out and do in UFA

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

But isn't the X being 2 better than the X being 3 or 4 or 5?

If someone doesn't agree with you that doesn't mean they are "rejecting reality" but you do you.

Yesterday the possibility was X= 0 or x >= 1. This is what I meant by basic outcomes. There were obviously much more complex outcomes (e.g. long term hold out, trade deadline move, long term contract signing, whatever) but centrally, the basic outcomes were locked into Y/N he resigns in Edmonton.

Doing that, he eliminated >50% of the "good" results for flames fans that still existed. So, the result is not good.

Also, there is absolutely 0, nothing at all, that lends any credence to the idea that this caps his tenure in Edmonton at today + 3 years. That's a ridiculous position. If anything, him signing again and building more of a life in Edmonton increases the future probability of re-signing again. Dino again the master of rejecting reality in favor of a distant dream.

I wonder how much furniture Katz is buying this week.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Bahl at 5.35 >> Walman at 7

Already burning that extra mcgraceful dough the moment they got it on dumb contracts.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

You also said this:















McDavid might end up in Toronto. He might play his entire career in Edmonton. He might go to another team after this contract. I have absolutely no idea. It's tough to predict what another human will do, which is why several posters suggested using less than absolute language, and not to name call people with opposing views. Hopefully a lesson has been learned.

All those posts were before I said he might sign the two year deal. Move those goalposts to fit your narrative though. Things are not static, people can have a change of plans. Hopefully you learn a lesson that things can change and people can report on that too

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The next two seasons. Not this season. Sorry for any confusion. Project forward the cap and see what it implies with their existing contracts and what they can go out and do in UFA

Well next year they have 22 million dollars and need to sign

Two goalies
3 dmen

After they get done that (assuming not everyone signs for 40% off, which is a safe bet since McDavid is the only one who has given one) they likely have no money left over for forwards. It would be reasonable to assume that those 5 positions will average at least 3.5 million each if they want to get anyone half decent.

If Savoie and Howard can hit their bonuses they will only have 20.5 million in cap space:

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The next two seasons. Not this season. Sorry for any confusion. Project forward the cap and see what it implies with their existing contracts and what they can go out and do in UFA

Next season

Wallman 3.6M raise
Podkolzin 2M raise
Skinner UFA
Ekholm UFA
Kulak UFA
Pikard UFA
Kapanen UFA

They will struggle to bring back this or similar

He may be loyal but McDAvid is really dumb...he could have the money and a better team if he actually wants to win

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Parallex

This is dumb. Connor McDavid is now Connor McStupid.

He's the premier player in the league... he should be out there setting the bar for what his contemporaries could be getting paid. The contract should have been an easy negotiation... the team writes down max money and max term and all the fringe benefits and he either signs it or he doesn't. Every agent and player union rep should be throwing rotten tomato's at him every opportunity they get.

This is like getting roped in by your grifting, narcissist friend one last time while greener pastures surround you in every direction.

What a silly goof. Oh well, he'll learn the hard way.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You can't be serious lol...those would be the greatest odds of all time.

Vegas has Oilers +700-+800 which is approx 13-15% so not completely off on odds

(Yes I know Vegas prices the Oilers worse because they get a lot of public $$)

Teams being +500 to win it all isn’t uncommon

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Next season

Wallman 3.6M raise
Podkolzin 2M raise
Skinner RFA
Ekholm UFA
Kulak UFA
Pikard UFA
Kapanen UFA

They will struggle to bring back this or similar

He may be loyal but McDAvid is really dumb...he could have the money and a better team if he actually wants to win

Skinner is a UFA

So is Henrique

Counting Howard they have 10 forwards, 5 dmen and no goalies under contract next year.

So they need (assuming they go with a 22 man roster and not a 23 man roster) 3 forwards, 2 dmen and 2 goalies. But that backend is dropping 2 of arguably their top 4 dmen so unless some crappy dman becomes good the dmen and goalies should cost a decent chunk of change.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

All those posts were before I said he might sign the two year deal. Move those goalposts to fit your narrative though. Things are not static, people can have a change of plans. Hopefully you learn a lesson that things can change and people can report on that too

To be fair, you were extremely certain/rigid in your posts about the outcome. I didnt see any footnotes about a 2 year extension.

Nice try lugging the goalposts around today to salvage your insider status though.