2025/2026 Season Trade Rumours and Speculation Thread

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by stemit14

It will be a tough initial schedule so it could put the flames behind if they struggle out of the gate.

maybe, but then they have an easier schedule...I mean I was told the Flames would fall off big time when everyone ramped it up last year. Flames were a really good team down the stretch...it took a franchise record win streak for the Blues to equal them in points.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think it's budget and market driven not lazy.

And you get my respect on getting it right last year.

Personally I don't think it was done on a playoff roster, but in elite work ethic and goaltending but you were right either way.

smaller markets have writers...besides it doesnt matter. Point is they dont follow the Flames and don't have a very good grasp on the organization its obvious to me. They just sound like the usual eastern media takes which is why I call it lazy. Their 17th overall ranking of the prospect base shows they don't have a clue when it comes to this team.

Flames will score more this season IMO

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’d for sure take the over on 80 of course. I suppose the counter argument to the notion that the Flames only got so close based on Wolf and work ethic is that they still have Wolf and probably will still have work ethic.

OTOH, they’ve lost Vladar and will probably lose Andersson. So where they wind up probably hinges on the fill ins there.

OTOOH, there are 3-4 players who have proven to have more in them than they produced last year.

OTOOOH, there are a few players that may hit the age curve as soon as this season.


OTOOOOH, there are few ageless wonders on the team that seem to out play the age curve each season.


In all seriousness, I appreciate attempts to put numbers onto something as dynamic and difficult to measure as hockey. However, these "models" include a lot more qualitative judgments than the authors advertise, in my opinion.


I always appreciate Dino's optimism for the Flames and, to be fair, I note Dino appears to me to be calling out the extremes of the projections as laughable.

[dino7c]

I under predicted the Flames last season...they did better than I said. I was just closer than these experts.

I just don't see how the median is virtually the same as a team coming in with an unknown Wolf, lesser known Coronato/Zary/Klapka, and no ZP, Frost, Farabee last year. Seems like they didn't do much digging. IMO anyway.

Edit: Just placed an over bet on 82.5 which was the best I could find, we shall see. I think much of the league is sleeping on the Flames younger players and a younger vet like Frost.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

I'm seeing (on NHL.com) the Flames at 2.68 goals per game (220 GF). Which, with 236 GA, still supports the point you're making. My feeling is veteran erosion will be outpaced by growth within the younger ranks this year. I would wager an improvement in both GF and GA. Not an assessment of analytics, just a prediction. And I don't buy the perception of a low end roster. Sure, the Flames don't have the big gun, but I look at their roster and see one much more balanced than most teams. And they know it. That's why they buy into the need to win as a team.

The article points out that a third line of Farabee-Frost-Sharangovich rates as stronger than most third lines in the league. But all three saw big drops in production last season, and will need to bounce back to their 23-24 numbers for the Flames to reach the higher end of the projection’s points range.

[sureLoss]

Insider trading:
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/2025/09...next-nhl-team/

Hart down to 3 or 4 teams. 2 of the teams are Canes and VGK

LeBrun says there is a chance that Flames re-sign Andersson, but more likely they trade him
Neither side has closed the door on extension
Andersson may listen if 8 year deal was on the table
LeBrun also said Andersson almost got traded to Las Vegas, but it didn't materialize

Flames and Oilers have begun preliminary contract discussions on Huska and Knoblauch respectively
No formal offers yet by either club

Vasilevskiy has missed 4 days of training camp is raising some concern.
Longer he is off the ice the more the story is going to rise

Pietrangelo is not playing this year
Too much optimism was derived from his comments yesterday, still focusing on trying to lead a normal life

Team Canada hopes to cut down Olympic list to 35 players by Nov 10
Which means that early season performance may play a big part in the decisions

[PepsiFree]

It’s probably important to remember that models like Dom’s are about as accurate as a model can be, but I don’t think anyone is pitching them as having the ability to actually predict the future. They’re just taking historical information and combining it with standard development curves and the result is what should happen based on all of that being true.

In some cases it is true, players remain consistent with past performance and follow average curves. In some cases it isn’t, as players or even whole teams perform better than they should or much worse than they should.

But the more consistently players and teams perform better or worse than they should, the more the model adapts to account for that. So it’s entirely possible and totally plausible that the Flames will, in fact, be a lot worse this year. It’s also the same to suggest they’ll be the same or much better and that the model simply hasn’t “caught up.”

Putting too much stock into these things either way is pointless. I think they’re neat and like seeing the predictions regardless of whether they’re good or bad, but I don’t see any reason to count a team out or push all your money in because the model says so.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I under predicted the Flames last season...they did better than I said. I was just closer than these experts.

I just don't see how the median is virtually the same as a team coming in with an unknown Wolf, lesser known Coronato/Zary/Klapka, and no ZP, Frost, Farabee last year. Seems like they didn't do much digging. IMO anyway.

Edit: Just placed an over bet on 82.5 which was the best I could find, we shall see. I think much of the league is sleeping on the Flames younger players and a younger vet like Frost.

Really, I think it comes down to these pundits saying the team over-achieved and can't do it again. It's as simple as that. For every player that over-achieved I can think of another that under-performed. It was not a team full of career seasons last year. For every thing that went well, I look at other things that were down right unlucky. I have a lot of trouble projecting the Flames because really there are so many wild cards.


Many of these pre-season previews are based upon recognizable names - regardless of whether a model is used or not. The Flames have very few names that jump off the page to pundits who do not follow the team.


To be fair to those less keen on the team, team performance across the league does vary from season to season. I think that few pundits had Nashville being near the bottom of the league.


I think that you will do well on the bet of 82.5.

[Geeoff]

If we could somehow be a bottom 5 team while Wolf still looks like a #1 goalie, that could be great TBH.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

Really, I think it comes down to these pundits saying the team over-achieved and can't do it again. It's as simple as that. For every player that over-achieved I can think of another that under-performed. It was not a team full of career seasons last year. For every thing that went well, I look at other things that were down right unlucky. I have a lot of trouble projecting the Flames because really there are so many wild cards.


Many of these pre-season previews are based upon recognizable names - regardless of whether a model is used or not. The Flames have very few names that jump off the page to pundits who do not follow the team.


To be fair to those less keen on the team, team performance across the league does vary from season to season. I think that few pundits had Nashville being near the bottom of the league.


I think that you will do well on the bet of 82.5.

Thats kinda my point and why I said "Lazy" nobody has actually done a deep dive on the Flames roster IMO. Eastern writers are basically saying they fluked out last season...maybe. Doubt they Fluked out a 17 point difference and I think they have a lot of young players who can take a step. Its not like I'm saying last season is the median either.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It's there model not mine.

I'm just saying calling them lazy is lazy.

They use numbers to support a theory; it seems to be player driven. The Flames have proven to be greater than the sum of their parts and good on them.

But it's not lazy.

Or in otherwards .... what the hell are you talking about????

As someone that also participates in an industry where if you're right 55% - 60% of the time you're top quartile. Explaining this reality to folks is a tough hill to climb. I appreciate you fighting the good fight though.

Example: "Roger Federer won 54% of the individual points played in his singles career, a statistic he shared during his 2024 Dartmouth commencement speech. He won nearly 80% of his career singles matches in career. He focused on winning the points that mattered.

The above quote also makes me shake my head at the Flames strategy...out work everyone for 77 out of 82games, then get to the playoffs, where everyone tries...lose because it becomes a skill match. Then start the cycle of complaining our few stars are not playoff performers. Rinse and repeat.

82 points...Islanders last year finished with 82points and scored 224 goals to our 225goals. We just allowed only 238 vs their 260. Wild were at 228 for and 239 against...for 97points. Sounds like the betting line is where it should be and we're in the wide variability part of the league for the regular season where we can see 15pts of deviation in results.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by united

Keep throwing a tantrum about the best case being higher than 94 points, while also demonstrating you don't have a clue what a distribution is.

If we finish at 81pts, I'd call that a successful season. I mean we're still outside where we need to be to grab a high profile center, but maybe we get lucky.

Also Will Smith, Fantelli, and Carlsson scoring 18+ goals each last year really puts into perspective how much we really needed to enjoy the 2022-23 Flames playoff push to give up on being excited about having a 20yr old center on our roster putting up those numbers 2seasons later.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The article points out that a third line of Farabee-Frost-Sharangovich rates as stronger than most third lines in the league. But all three saw big drops in production last season, and will need to bounce back to their 23-24 numbers for the Flames to reach the higher end of the projection’s points range.

It is tough to predict who this season will have bounce back years or show regression. It is especially difficult with teams built on depth rather than top end skill. There is only one pick and only so much ice time/opportunity to produce. I think all of these players have shown the ability to be top 6 forwards and produce 20+ goals and 50+ points given the opportunity:

Huberdeau
Kadri
Coronato
Zary
Frost
Farabee
Sharangovich
Backlund
Coleman

If all those players produced like top six forwards this season, I think the flames are more than just a bubble team - they are likely in contention for home ice in the playoffs. But the reality is that only a portion of those players will have enough opportunity (powerplays, 3-on-3, offensive zone starts) to produce at a top 6 level.

I think Backlund and Coleman can be eliminated from the list simply because their utilization is more focused on being a shutdown pair. I also think whichever winger on the Backlund-Coleman line might struggle to produce under those conditions. I know some players can overcome the defensive responsibility and still produce some offence but I think it’s a bit of an uphill battle compared to being on lines that are given favourable deployment.

I also think it’s likely only one of Coronato or Sharangovich will have a 30+ goals. Simply because they are designated shooters and probably only one will be on PP1.

This is probably a conservative estimate for the flames though. There is a chance all these players bounce back/continue to produce under evenly distributed opportunities.

[flambers]

Flames season is tough to predict for sure, all it takes is one of their center's (Kadri, Backland or Frost) to go down with a lengthy injury and they could likely struggle

Depth at the center position is thin

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Huberdeau
Kadri
Coronato
Zary
Frost
Farabee
Sharangovich
Backlund
Coleman

It will be basically impossible for 9 forwards to get 20 goals and 50 points.

There is not enough premium ice time to go around.

Sure each is capable of that number, but it will need to come at the expense of others.

The PP time will go to those who start well.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

smaller markets have writers...besides it doesnt matter. Point is they dont follow the Flames and don't have a very good grasp on the organization its obvious to me. They just sound like the usual eastern media takes which is why I call it lazy. Their 17th overall ranking of the prospect base shows they don't have a clue when it comes to this team.

Flames will score more this season IMO

Their central guy is has every single player in a data set and applies his parameters to Flames players the same way he does every other player.

It's not overlooking a team, it's just not seeing the intangibles as being as prominent this year ... or a flawed model that doesn't add up to much.

But it's not a lack of weekly fluff pieces about the Flames from a writer that barely knows the team away from being effective.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by dino7c

lol like I would give them my money, I can get bad hockey takes for free...their stuff is posted everywhere though, including this site. All their rankings are on twitter and reddit ect.

You think they have a good handle on the Flames considering they don't even cover them? Missed by 17 points last year. Close one. If Wolf carried them as much as some people think he should have won the Vezina or at least been a finalist.

I don’t read it for flames coverage

[dino7c]

I bet the over on the Flames and the under on the Oilers every year and am way over .500.

Media consistently gets the Flames low and the Oilers high when it comes to regular season point totals.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Agreed.

But can that work ethic play out for two seasons, especially if they don't get off to a 6-0-1 start?

I think their work ethic is a lot easier to predict than hot/cold players. I would have missed Sharangovitch's production by a fair bit last year, but also underestimated Coronato's goalscoring.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I bet the over on the Flames and the under on the Oilers every year and am way over .500.

Media consistently gets the Flames low and the Oilers high when it comes to regular season point totals.

Post snapshot of the last 5yrs P&L of the bets please. I'd love to share with Oiler fans if true.