The 2025 Offseason thread.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Has there been any leak on what the Flames are offering Wolf to re-sign? I really hope the team is being aggressive trying to lock him up. Been thinking an 8 year 60 mil deal would be very hard for him to turn down. That's a big risk from the Flames for a young goalie, but I don't think we want to see what the number will be if he pulls off a big season. 7.5m aav would put him 10th in goalie salary (negating Carey Price ltir).

$7.5mil aav is like second line money now, Wolf is tracking to be a star goalie, potentially superstar.

In the current and near future salary cap climate it'd be very difficult to convince Wolf to accept $7.5 aav for max term. $7.5 - $8.5mil AAV is likely going to get you a disastrous 2-3 year term (he's a UFA 2028 and I can't see any scenario where Conroy walks a potential elite goalie to free agency after being a part of Tkachuk walking).

Most likely need $10-$12mil if you want him to commit to a contract that takes him to 30+ years old. 8 year term is asking him to sign his payday contract in his career that takes him through his prime.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by jayswin

$7.5mil aav is like second line money now, Wolf is tracking to be a star goalie, potentially superstar.

In the current and near future salary cap climate it'd be very difficult to convince Wolf to accept $7.5 aav for max term. $7.5 - $8.5mil AAV is likely going to get you a disastrous 2-3 year term (he's a UFA 2028 and I can't see any scenario where Conroy walks a potential elite goalie to free agency after being a part of Tkachuk walking).

Most likely need $10-$12mil if you want him to commit to a contract that takes him to 30+ years old. 8 year term is asking him to sign his payday contract in his career that takes him through his prime.

Are you his agent? $12M for an undersized RFA goaltender with one NHL season under his belt? That would make him the highest paid goaltender in the league, paid more than Stanley Cup and Vézina winners. I love him as a player, but he hasn’t proven that he’s a $12M goaltender yet, and you have to account for the RFA years in the contract.

[jayswin]

$10-$12, I said. You took the high end. I strongly believe he's going to come in much higher than the $7.5 - $8.5 AAV posters have been throwing around for an 8 year deal.

His ranking in the league in terms of contract won-t be entirely relevant when most top tier goalies aren't signing this or last off season after the cap started its massive jump up, annually.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by jayswin

$10-$12, I said. You took the high end. I strongly believe he's going to come in much higher than the $7.5 - $8.5 AAV posters have been throwing around for an 8 year deal.

His ranking in the league in terms of contract won-t be entirely relevant when most top tier goalies aren't signing this or last off season after the cap started its massive jump up, annually.

His cap hit should come in max around Oettinger’s percentage unless he wins the Vezina next year.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by jayswin

$7.5mil aav is like second line money now, Wolf is tracking to be a star goalie, potentially superstar.

In the current and near future salary cap climate it'd be very difficult to convince Wolf to accept $7.5 aav for max term. $7.5 - $8.5mil AAV is likely going to get you a disastrous 2-3 year term (he's a UFA 2028 and I can't see any scenario where Conroy walks a potential elite goalie to free agency after being a part of Tkachuk walking).

Most likely need $10-$12mil if you want him to commit to a contract that takes him to 30+ years old. 8 year term is asking him to sign his payday contract in his career that takes him through his prime.

He could win the Venzina this year and not get into the high end of the 10-12 range.

You are paying him like it's a certainty he'll be an elite goalie.

He had a very good year for a rookie, but he's going to have to be much better before he is considered an elite goalie.

At his stage, if he wants to sign a long term deal years before UFA he'll need to accept less than his high side, or there is little reason for the Flames to do it.

[Kipper_3434]

Originally Posted by jayswin

$7.5mil aav is like second line money now, Wolf is tracking to be a star goalie, potentially superstar.

In the current and near future salary cap climate it'd be very difficult to convince Wolf to accept $7.5 aav for max term. $7.5 - $8.5mil AAV is likely going to get you a disastrous 2-3 year term (he's a UFA 2028 and I can't see any scenario where Conroy walks a potential elite goalie to free agency after being a part of Tkachuk walking).

Most likely need $10-$12mil if you want him to commit to a contract that takes him to 30+ years old. 8 year term is asking him to sign his payday contract in his career that takes him through his prime.

Well that's not a leak lol. 7.5m aav is top 10 in the league, as I said. If the number starts with a 10 I expect an absolute lights out season, which is why the Flames are hopefully making a strong pitch now.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

As noted, realistically impossible though not technically statistically impossible.

Every team would need the exact same number of wins, losses, and overtime losses against a very specific set of opponents with little to no room for variation.

The most generous way to achieve it, which is the 1/4x10^42 likelihood, requires ignoring a bunch of factors anyway. More realistic scenarios make it far less likely than any NHL season repeating exactly (ie each team getting the exact same number of wins, points, against the same teams, etc.)

Which just illustrates the point further. Even coming up with a realistically impossible season standings that adheres close to the average would not be more accurate than JFresh’s model, so as unimpressive as a 10.4 variation seems, it’s hard to achieve.

I created a mathematical model (using no information whatsoever about hockey or the NHL, other than teams' points totals at the end of the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons) to create a model that had an average error of 10.5 for last season. The reason why the error was so high for my model was the disastrous season the Predators had last year - they accounted for 10% of my total error after dropping from 99 points and trending upwards to just 68 points, and they were probably the reason JFresh's predictions were not as good last season as they were the season before.

My model, if you're interested, averages the points totals from the two previous seasons (to reduce the effects of random events like injuries), then averages that number with the average number of points all teams obtained in the previous season (to account for potential regression to the mean), then adds half the difference between the points the team accumulated in the previous two seasons (to account for trends).

Not perfect, but remarkably close to the performance of the much more sophisticated JFresh model, without taking the effects of any individual players (trades, injuries, retirements, progression/regression/decline) into account.

[White Out 403]

I just saw Toews for the first time in a Jets practice jersey. Looks great. Realistically speaking, I don't think there's any kind of ceiling for the amount of goals and points he puts up. 150 points? 200 points? Sky is the limit

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

I just saw Toews for the first time in a Jets practice jersey. Looks great. Realistically speaking, I don't think there's any kind of ceiling for the amount of goals and points he puts up. 150 points? 200 points? Sky is the limit

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

I just saw Toews for the first time in a Jets practice jersey. Looks great. Realistically speaking, I don't think there's any kind of ceiling for the amount of goals and points he puts up. 150 points? 200 points? Sky is the limit

LOL. Realistically speaking... and then he will get zero points in 4 games in the playoffs.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

its the 2025 off season thread. is this for flames only? if so the title is a little misleading

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

I created a mathematical model (using no information whatsoever about hockey or the NHL, other than teams' points totals at the end of the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons) to create a model that had an average error of 10.5 for last season. The reason why the error was so high for my model was the disastrous season the Predators had last year - they accounted for 10% of my total error after dropping from 99 points and trending upwards to just 68 points, and they were probably the reason JFresh's predictions were not as good last season as they were the season before.

My model, if you're interested, averages the points totals from the two previous seasons (to reduce the effects of random events like injuries), then averages that number with the average number of points all teams obtained in the previous season (to account for potential regression to the mean), then adds half the difference between the points the team accumulated in the previous two seasons (to account for trends).

Not perfect, but remarkably close to the performance of the much more sophisticated JFresh model, without taking the effects of any individual players (trades, injuries, retirements, progression/regression/decline) into account.

I think you’re totally missing the point (you’re not alone, as Enoch and a couple others aren’t getting it either). The point isn’t to create the most accurate model by eliminating inputs and reducing the sophistication of the model. The point is creating a sophisticated model with these necessary inputs that is as accurate as possible.

For example. I “fixed” your model by removing the redundant addition of adding half the difference. Got it to 10.2. I “fixed” it further by adding the redundant addition back and reducing it to 1/8 instead of 1/2. Got it to 10.0. So the question is: how useful is the model? What do we learn from it if I can change one arbitrary number we just made up and make it more accurate? The answers are probably “not at all” and “nothing.”

Go back and apply your model to the year previous. 10.7. JFresh? 9.9. You’re solely trying to reverse engineer a model with the lowest error rate by ignoring as many inputs as possible, while he has a model with a laundry list of inputs and simply hopes it’s among the least inaccurate.

The point of the whole thing is the inputs. It’s a reflection of how a team should perform based on all of the inputs you ignored or eliminated. It’s more about the “why” and less about the result. The closer the result, the more we learn about the accuracy of the why and how (not the reverse). Without any why or how there’s really nothing to learn and no point to having developed a model in the first place.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I think you’re totally missing the point (you’re not alone, as Enoch and a couple others aren’t getting it either). The point isn’t to create the most accurate model by eliminating inputs and reducing the sophistication of the model. The point is creating a sophisticated model with these necessary inputs that is as accurate as possible.

For example. I “fixed” your model by removing the redundant addition of adding half the difference. Got it to 10.2. I “fixed” it further by adding the redundant addition back and reducing it to 1/8 instead of 1/2. Got it to 10.0. So the question is: how useful is the model? What do we learn from it if I can change one arbitrary number we just made up and make it more accurate? The answers are probably “not at all” and “nothing.”

Go back and apply your model to the year previous. 10.7. JFresh? 9.9. You’re solely trying to reverse engineer a model with the lowest error rate by ignoring as many inputs as possible, while he has a model with a laundry list of inputs and simply hopes it’s among the least inaccurate.

The point of the whole thing is the inputs. It’s a reflection of how a team should perform based on all of the inputs you ignored or eliminated. It’s more about the “why” and less about the result. The closer the result, the more we learn about the accuracy of the why and how (not the reverse). Without any why or how there’s really nothing to learn and no point to having developed a model in the first place.

I was trying to prove that an average error of 10.4 is not good, only slightly better than picking random numbers. All of those inputs in the JFresh model make it no better than some simple model that has nothing at all to do with the sport or the league. So there's something wrong with it. If the JFresh model is any good, it should be measurably better, regardless of how that result was reached. If you're inputting a whole bunch of information that you think is relevant but your results are no more accurate, then maybe what you think is relevant isn't, or isn't weighted properly. It's not the concept of the JFresh model that's the problem, it's the model's design.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

its the 2025 off season thread. is this for flames only? if so the title is a little misleading

Duuhhh

[Icon]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

its the 2025 off season thread. is this for flames only? if so the title is a little misleading

I don't care either way, that response was perfect.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

I was trying to prove that an average error of 10.4 is not good, only slightly better than picking random numbers. All of those inputs in the JFresh model make it no better than some simple model that has nothing at all to do with the sport or the league. So there's something wrong with it. If the JFresh model is any good, it should be measurably better, regardless of how that result was reached. If you're inputting a whole bunch of information that you think is relevant but your results are no more accurate, then maybe what you think is relevant isn't, or isn't weighted properly. It's not the concept of the JFresh model that's the problem, it's the model's design.

Then you failed. You didn’t even pick random numbers, you picked specific ones using a set formula where you already knew the result you were trying to accurately predict… and his was still measurably better.

Predicting 1312 events with a 88.6% average accuracy is pretty good or at least interesting.

Predicting 32 datas points you already actually know and only hitting 88.6% accuracy is actually kind of terrible. “I put it on easy mode for myself and knew the answers and was almost as accurate as the complex model that didn’t!” isn’t really a flex.

But as I said, I think you’re just missing the point here, which is fine, though I think my math teachers would have spit on me if I told them how you reach the result and whether you can do so consistently doesn’t matter, all that matters is getting pretty close if you already know the answer you’re trying to find lol.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

its the 2025 off season thread. is this for flames only? if so the title is a little misleading

Is the offseason thread on a dedicated Flames forum about the Flames? What would ever give anyone that idea.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He could win the Venzina this year and not get into the high end of the 10-12 range.

You are paying him like it's a certainty he'll be an elite goalie.

He had a very good year for a rookie, but he's going to have to be much better before he is considered an elite goalie.

At his stage, if he wants to sign a long term deal years before UFA he'll need to accept less than his high side, or there is little reason for the Flames to do it.

Bur that's what him and his agent will want if the Flames want to get him for max term, making his next contract in his 30's. That's why they're likely pushing hard for a shorter term that would be potentially disastrous for the Flames.

Wolf is very confident and will want to bet on himself, and an 8 year deal at under $10mil takes that away from him. Not saying he's proven enough to be worth $10+mil, but we need to gamble a bit that he'll realize his potential if we want him for 8 years. Otherwise it's going to be another Tkachuk situation with a 3-4 year deal.

[jayswin]

Expecting a goalie with this trajectory and potential to sign for second line forward money for max term through his prime (7.5mil aav) just isn't realistic, even if he hasnt proven to be worth more than that, yet.

[BigThief]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Are you his agent? $12M for an undersized RFA goaltender with one NHL season under his belt? That would make him the highest paid goaltender in the league, paid more than Stanley Cup and Vézina winners. I love him as a player, but he hasn’t proven that he’s a $12M goaltender yet, and you have to account for the RFA years in the contract.

Are you the Flames GM? Why are you still using undersized to value him. It doesn't matter. The Flames have a star goalie on their hands, it's time to start investing long term in guys like him.