2025/2026 Season Trade Rumours and Speculation Thread

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I would be surprised if the Flames disagreed with you. The more probable scenario in my opinion is that Zary wants shorter term for the same dollar figure. The question is what is the highest you would go for the Flames on AAV on a 6 to 7 year contract? Similarly, what is the highest you would go for the Flames on AAV for a 2 to 3 year contract if Zary won't sign for longer?

Personally I think $5.5-$6.0M but if I had to go as rich as Coronato's deal I'd be comfortable with that.

I try not to look at arbitrary 82 game seasons as some type of indicator of performance because I think that's how teams make bad long term decisions. They can over pay because of a good arbitrary 82 game sample, and then panic too soon because of a bad 82 game sample.

If I look at the last two seasons:

Coronato: 27 goals and 56 points in 111 NHL games (0.51 P/GP) / 44 points in 43 career AHL games
Zary: 27 goals and 61 points in 117 NHL games (0.52 P/GP) / 100 points in 140 career AHL games

My personal feeling is if you thought that Coronato was a great signing for $6.5M long term then there should be no issue with Zary getting the same $6-$6.5M range. And if the injury issues let you get it done in the $5.5-$6.0 range then that's even better.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I still think if you can get him for 6+ years at $5.5 to $6M then that's the right move.

Logan Stankoven just got $6M and he has 37 points as a career high too.

Connor Garland is a career 45-50 point guy, and he just got $6M.

With a rising cap a guy who puts up 45-50 points is going to get $6M. Zary averages a p/pg rate of 42 points per 82 games.

If you can get him for 7 years at $5.5M to $6M that would be a very shrewd signing IMO, even if he never progresses past being around a 0.5 point per game guy it's barely an overpayment.

Wingers that can average 0.5 points per game are a dime a dozen. I'm exaggerating a bit but Flames don't need to pay $6 million for that, you can find those players every year.

But Zary has upside. $40 million over 7 years?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Personally I think $5.5-$6.0M but if I had to go as rich as Coronato's deal I'd be comfortable with that.

I try not to look at arbitrary 82 game seasons as some type of indicator of performance because I think that's how teams make bad long term decisions. They can over pay because of a good arbitrary 82 game sample, and then panic too soon because of a bad 82 game sample.

If I look at the last two seasons:

Coronato: 27 goals and 56 points in 111 NHL games (0.51 P/GP) / 44 points in 43 career AHL games
Zary: 27 goals and 61 points in 117 NHL games (0.52 P/GP) / 100 points in 140 career AHL games

My personal feeling is if you thought that Coronato was a great signing for $6.5M long term then there should be no issue with Zary getting the same $6-$6.5M range.

Are you not accounting for any of the risks from two knee injuries? We haven't seen him play since the second one.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Are you not accounting for any of the risks from two knee injuries? We haven't seen him play since the second one.

Not really. Neither required surgery, so shouldn't be any long term impacts.

My personal feeling remains that if the team has concerns about the injury history or his ability to progress then they shouldn't hesitate to move him in a trade for a Byram or previously Cozens.

If they think he's too good to be moved for one of those guys, then you should have faith in that assessment and try to lock him up long term.

Personally I think he has the potential to be a pretty dynamic 60 point forward, and I'd be trying to lock that up now for around $6M if I could.

[Bingo]

I'm all for getting Zary done as I think he pops.

But if you look at the last 50 games of their careers Coronato has popped and that's why he gets the contract in my opinion.

Last 50 games

Zary 11 goals 22 points
Coronato 16 goals 33 points

Last 50 games

Goals/60
Zary 0.83
Coronato 1.05

Pts/60
Zary 1.66
Coronato 2.16

I'm not saying Zary can't achieve those results but Coronato did a 2/3 season pop right at contract time and was likely the better bet.

[Lewis_D]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1948063708749676858

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I would be surprised if the Flames disagreed with you. The more probable scenario in my opinion is that Zary wants shorter term for the same dollar figure. The question is what is the highest you would go for the Flames on AAV on a 6 to 7 year contract? Similarly, what is the highest you would go for the Flames on AAV for a 2 to 3 year contract if Zary won't sign for longer?

For me, the highest I would go for a long term contract is $6.5 (no more than Coronato).

For a 2 or 3 year deal, I would keep it under $4M

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Not really. Neither required surgery, so shouldn't be any long term impacts.

My personal feeling remains that if the team has concerns about the injury history or his ability to progress then they shouldn't hesitate to move him in a trade for a Byram or previously Cozens.

If they think he's too good to be moved for one of those guys, then you should have faith in that assessment and try to lock him up long term.

Personally I think he has the potential to be a pretty dynamic 60 point forward, and I'd be trying to lock that up now for around $6M if I could.

I don't think it's that binary.
Two knee injuries, in the same year, simply changes the risk profile, and therefore the type of deal you would be willing to make, and specifically the degree of commitment.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm all for getting Zary done as I think he pops.

But if you look at the last 50 games of their careers Coronato has popped and that's why he gets the contract in my opinion.

Last 50 games

Zary 11 goals 22 points
Coronato 16 goals 33 points

Last 50 games

Goals/60
Zary 0.83
Coronato 1.05

Pts/60
Zary 1.66
Coronato 2.16

I'm not saying Zary can't achieve those results but Coronato did a 2/3 season pop right at contract time and was likely the better bet.

How much of that was just injury and opportunity:

Zary played 22 of the Flames final 50 games last year.

5v5 G: 6
5v5 A: 2
5v5 P: 8 (1.72 P/60)

PP G: 0
PP A: 2
PP P: 0 (2.83 P/60)

Coronato played 50 of the Flames final 50 games last year.

5v5 G: 10
5v5 A: 7
5v5 P: 17 (1.52 P/60)

PP G: 4
PP A: 8
PP P: 12 (4.87 P/60)

Personally I think if Zary doesn't get hurt we are probably talking about him getting a bigger contract than Coronato got. The underlying and rate numbers still show Zary as more impactful and a better play driver.

If you can lock him up long term at a rate that's similar or even cheaper than Coronato then it would likely be a good move. As long as you think the injuries were just a bit of a fluke and not some long term issue.

[Sec214]

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't think it's that binary.
Two knee injuries, in the same year, simply changes the risk profile, and therefore the type of deal you would be willing to make, and specifically the degree of commitment.

If the Flames are offering a long term deal, they likely have a very good idea of the state of his knee.

If there is any uncertainty at all, then there will only be a 2-3 year deal offered.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Sec214

contract talks broke down?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If the Flames are offering a long term deal, they likely have a very good idea of the state of his knee.

If there is any uncertainty at all, then there will only be a 2-3 year deal offered.

And it seems like what we've heard is indeed their mindset is more the latter? And perhaps that changed after the second injury?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

How much of that was just injury and opportunity:

Zary played 22 of the Flames final 50 games last year.

5v5 G: 6
5v5 A: 2
5v5 P: 8 (1.72 P/60)

PP G: 0
PP A: 2
PP P: 0 (2.83 P/60)

Coronato played 50 of the Flames final 50 games last year.

5v5 G: 10
5v5 A: 7
5v5 P: 17 (1.52 P/60)

PP G: 4
PP A: 8
PP P: 12 (4.87 P/60)

Personally I think if Zary doesn't get hurt we are probably talking about him getting a bigger contract than Coronato got. The underlying and rate numbers still show Zary as more impactful and a better play driver.

If you can lock him up long term at a rate that's similar or even cheaper than Coronato then it would likely be a good move. As long as you think the injuries were just a bit of a fluke and not some long term issue.

Injuries hurt his numbers as he had to adjust back to playing twice.

But I just took the last 50 games period.

And you could be right ... but he did get hurt.

(once again I'm all for locking him up)

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

contract talks broke down?

Andersson trade talks broke down is my guess

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

And it seems like what we've heard is indeed their mindset is more the latter? And perhaps that changed after the second injury?

Is it? My impression was that the Flames are looking for term and Zary would like it short term

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Is it? My impression was that the Flames are looking for term and Zary would like it short term

If I'm Zary, I wouldn't want to sign a contract based on value from last year's injury riddled season. He's clearly capable of more.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Injuries hurt his numbers as he had to adjust back to playing twice.

But I just took the last 50 games period.

And you could be right ... but he did get hurt.

(once again I'm all for locking him up)

Coronato got a spike in ice starting December 10th. He had a few games before that where he got good ice, but he got around 18 a night after that. He put up 60-point pace from that game on.

Zary was getting big ice time until about November 29. He was pacing for 48 points. Zary's ice dipped quite a bit for about a month before he got hurt, and his numbers were still good in December despite around 15 a night vs 17. Even with a slight dip, he was still on pace for 46 points, but even at his best he wasn't producing like Coronato did. But he also has never had a month where he got 19 mins a game like Coronato has.

This issue with Zary not signed is more than likely coming down to ice time. If the Flames prefer to bridge him, if I was him, I would be wanting more ice to earn a big contract and, in his opinion, I bet he feels he deserves more ice.

This all comes down to having 11 top 9 forwards.

Zary also got off to a hot start and road those numbers for a few months before his ice dipped. He had 7 in the 1st 8 games and things started to slip.

This is why we should be trading him now. I just don't see him progressing into a player like Coronato has and with the log jam of players, a few players are going to struggles to produce with 13-14 minutes a game.

If we did sign him long term, I think that number needs to be less than $5.5 per year. 8 years, maybe ok a bit higher, but less than $6 mil

[SilverKast]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Andersson trade talks broke down is my guess

Or it's just summer time and guys have put the phone away and gone on holiday for a bit. Can't always just assume the worst.

[HighLifeMan]

Let Zary choose between a 2x3ish or a 7x5.75M

I'd prefer the longer deal myself, and there is risks associated for both sides on either option.