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Old 07-07-2025, 02:36 PM   #4201
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Ya, it depends on who is in the mix. Maybe the Mammoth finally put it together and are looking at a playoff run. They could be super motivated to solidify their D and hope that they can win Andersson over for the extension and not just the playoff run.

I still think Andersson is bluffing about testing free agency (if there was ever any truth to that rumour). Getting an 8 year extension instead of a 6 year UFA contract is a big difference. Whichever team that gets his rights will have a lot of leverage because of that.

That should be one of Conroy's selling points, even if we are just talking rental prices. The Leafs got Roy out of Vegas to just do some paperwork before July 1.
I don't think Ras is bluffing, I think he is betting on himself. I think he had a bad year and has been trending in the wrong direction the last 3. Teams want him, but at a certain price based on how he has played the last 3 years. I think he thinks he is better than that and deserve more than teams are offering.
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Old 07-07-2025, 02:41 PM   #4202
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Vegas is the only "contender" that has improved IMO...a bunch of teams need some bold moves.
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Old 07-07-2025, 02:42 PM   #4203
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The Stars are going to have to make tough calls next summer. I would go for their 1st in 2027 unprotected. It won't be top 10, but it could be 11-20. If they miss the playoffs, it's in the lottery. Realistically they are probably a wild card team. If the Flames miss the playoffs and they are a wild card team. You end up with 2 1sts in the 8-16 ranges and 1 around 20, unless they go on a run in the playoffs.

Getting a first are the deadline is almost a sure 24-32 OV pick for a rental player.

Stars also probably value the small cap hit this year as anyone. Vegas is the other team. Other teams don't need the 50% RS so they won't need to pay more.

I agree with you - I would much rather get the pick in the off-season, or trade now for 2027 picks. There is that logic, though the other argument is that given Dallas' age, they may improve by then too. It is a bit of a gamble, but I would take that gamble as well.


I don't think the market for retention is all that high. Too many teams have a lot of it right now. So if the Flames wouldn't be willing to retain for a late pick, I am sure that Dallas would find someone that would be willing to. The last few years were the optimal years for weaponizing cap space. Conroy can still weaponize it, but I think it is more likely weaponized by grabbing a negative contract from a contender. It may not be worth the retention spot for a late pick - and/or Edwards may not be ok with buying a late pick for 2.275 million. Flames just gave up the 16th pick for $6.375 million (and $6.0 million in actual dollars).
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Old 07-07-2025, 03:06 PM   #4204
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Vegas is the only "contender" that has improved IMO...a bunch of teams need some bold moves.
I'm not even sure they did. They gained Marner, but lost Pietrangelo.
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Old 07-07-2025, 03:32 PM   #4205
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I'm not even sure they did. They gained Marner, but lost Pietrangelo.
We aren't talking prime Pietrangelo though. They did add Prime Marner.

Theodore and McNabb were their top unit, if they get a depth dman, they will be better.

But it doesn't just come down to players in vs players out. Vets that decline, injuries and young players that improve all factor in. Mark Stone is trending towards a decline with his health, but if he hangs for another year at his current level, I think Vegas is better.

LA made some bad moves, but they have more growth potential than decline. Doughty is old, but he missed half the year. Kopitar is old and maybe he declines, but Byfield and Clarke could add a ton to that team next year. Turcotte and Helinuis too.

IMO Edmonton is worse.

Dallas is young, how good is Johnston and Harley? Heiskanen was hurt. They have gained tons of experience making in far in the playoffs. They could get better even though they lost a couple key players.

Hard to say who is better or worse until we see who makes the team out of camp.
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Old 07-07-2025, 03:40 PM   #4206
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I don't think Ras is bluffing, I think he is betting on himself. I think he had a bad year and has been trending in the wrong direction the last 3. Teams want him, but at a certain price based on how he has played the last 3 years. I think he thinks he is better than that and deserve more than teams are offering.
That is a difficult bet to make. I think most teams would be comfortable extending him for 8x$8.5M, maybe more with the cap going up. For the sake of argument, we could pretend he is going to maintain his fitness levels enough to play until he is 37, which would be the end of his 8 year deal.

8x$8.5M gets him $68M.

On a 6 year deal he would need to get $11.3M to get equivalent earnings to the 8 year deal at $8.5M. Even with the cap going up, I do not believe he can get into those numbers / cap hit. Which means he would need big money on his 35yo contract.

6x$10M + 2x$4M would also get him to $68M by 37. Any kind of injury or significant decline next season and his career earnings would take a huge hit (see Klingberg), not to mention the contract he would need to sign at 35.

There is a lot of risk in the 6 year plan.
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Old 07-07-2025, 03:42 PM   #4207
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That is a difficult bet to make. I think most teams would be comfortable extending him for 8x$8.5M, maybe more with the cap going up. For the sake of argument, we could pretend he is going to maintain his fitness levels enough to play until he is 37, which would be the end of his 8 year deal.

8x$8.5M gets him $68M.

On a 6 year deal he would need to get $11.3M to get equivalent earnings to the 8 year deal at $8.5M. Even with the cap going up, I do not believe he can get into those numbers / cap hit. Which means he would need big money on his 35yo contract.

6x$10M + 2x$4M would also get him to $68M by 37. Any kind of injury or significant decline next season and his career earnings would take a huge hit (see Klingberg), not to mention the contract he would need to sign at 35.

There is a lot of risk in the 6 year plan.
I’m saying bet on himself this year to get better offer. I bet most teams aren’t offering $8.5 mil. Good season this year he will get it.
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Old 07-07-2025, 03:48 PM   #4208
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I'm not even sure they did. They gained Marner, but lost Pietrangelo.

Also some really good depth players in Roy, Olofsson, and Pearson.
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Old 07-07-2025, 04:03 PM   #4209
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Also some really good depth players in Roy, Olofsson, and Pearson.
Scissions is a good player. I show they have 12 good forwards still.

Marner plays 22 a night and plays 82 a year. Plays on the PP and the PK.

If they stay healthy and Stone can play similar games as he did last year, they are better.

AP wasn't very good last year anyways.
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Old 07-07-2025, 04:10 PM   #4210
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Scissions is a good player. I show they have 12 good forwards still.

Marner plays 22 a night and plays 82 a year. Plays on the PP and the PK.

If they stay healthy and Stone can play similar games as he did last year, they are better.

AP wasn't very good last year anyways.
Yeah. What sucks (as far the 1st round pick that Calgary got from them) is that Marner is a regular season machine - on both sides of the puck. He likely improves their regular season over last year.
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Old 07-07-2025, 04:38 PM   #4211
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Soooo did I miss any juicy rumours over the past few days?
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Old 07-07-2025, 04:45 PM   #4212
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Marner was the Leafs best player at both ends of the rink...their fans and media are about to find out.

Without the ridiculous pressure he will be even better
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Old 07-07-2025, 04:58 PM   #4213
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I’m saying bet on himself this year to get better offer. I bet most teams aren’t offering $8.5 mil. Good season this year he will get it.
But it is absolutely certain that if he doesn't sign an extension early, nobody can offer him 8 years, and if he goes to UFA he can only get 6.
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Old 07-07-2025, 05:01 PM   #4214
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Marner was the Leafs best player at both ends of the rink...their fans and media are about to find out.

Without the ridiculous pressure he will be even better

That would be news to fans in general. Matthews has really good two way defensive stats but doesn't lay out the body at all. Marner loafted a lot, especially in the playoffs where it really mattered. It sucks they'll lose a 100 point player but he wasn't a good fit with the mix at the upper ends not doing anything physical to punch through the tight checking. He was the weakest link in that regard. It had to be done. Sucks they couldn't get anything for him but they signed the baby to the NTC.
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Old 07-07-2025, 06:49 PM   #4215
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Marner reminded me a lot of Matt Stajan.
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Old 07-07-2025, 08:53 PM   #4216
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Soooo did I miss any juicy rumours over the past few days?
Nope.
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Old 07-07-2025, 09:20 PM   #4217
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That would be news to fans in general. Matthews has really good two way defensive stats but doesn't lay out the body at all. Marner loafted a lot, especially in the playoffs where it really mattered. It sucks they'll lose a 100 point player but he wasn't a good fit with the mix at the upper ends not doing anything physical to punch through the tight checking. He was the weakest link in that regard. It had to be done. Sucks they couldn't get anything for him but they signed the baby to the NTC.
This won't age well IMO
Every player in the NHL doesn't have to be big and physical, Marner has a great stick, he was 3rd in take aways in the entire league. There is a reason Berube chose him to play D when they were in a pinch.

Also only in TO does PPG in the playoffs get you booed off the ice and chased out of town lol. Panthers shut down McDavid in the last few games, I guess he can't play either. Leafs had an incredibly hard 2nd round matchup and were an OT win away from advancing...but sure blame your best player and blow up the team. (works for me)
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Old 07-07-2025, 09:54 PM   #4218
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He would be eligible for a 7 year deal. Changes don’t take alleged til sept 2026 I believe

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That is a difficult bet to make. I think most teams would be comfortable extending him for 8x$8.5M, maybe more with the cap going up. For the sake of argument, we could pretend he is going to maintain his fitness levels enough to play until he is 37, which would be the end of his 8 year deal.

8x$8.5M gets him $68M.

On a 6 year deal he would need to get $11.3M to get equivalent earnings to the 8 year deal at $8.5M. Even with the cap going up, I do not believe he can get into those numbers / cap hit. Which means he would need big money on his 35yo contract.

6x$10M + 2x$4M would also get him to $68M by 37. Any kind of injury or significant decline next season and his career earnings would take a huge hit (see Klingberg), not to mention the contract he would need to sign at 35.

There is a lot of risk in the 6 year plan.
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Old 07-07-2025, 09:58 PM   #4219
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I’m saying bet on himself this year to get better offer. I bet most teams aren’t offering $8.5 mil. Good season this year he will get it.
I would be shocked if there isn't a team offering that. $8.5M isn't close to top dollar anymore. Karlsson got $11.5M 6 years ago. Trouba got $8M 6 years ago.

With the cap going up and the shortage of top pair RD, I think it is likely that he is getting $8.5M offers. My concern is that he expects to get $9.5M because Dobson did.
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Old 07-07-2025, 10:01 PM   #4220
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He would be eligible for a 7 year deal. Changes don’t take alleged til sept 2026 I believe
Fair enough. 8 year deals are still better than 7.
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