[Rumour] Dreger: Bowen Byram trade talks heating up. Calgary one of many teams interested

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Originally Posted by Jason14h

It’s not negative - it’s statistics and odds

2nd rounders have a 10-20% chance of even making 100 games in the nhl .

Late firsts - 20+ are around 30%

That’s not being stars - that’s making the NHL and carving out any sort of a career

So when people are slotting in all our 2nd and 3rd rounders , and our mid and late firsts as our go forward teams and saying we are short 1 player - it statistically is delusional

The same fans then say how SJ and Chicago will be bad for a decade despite having better prospects than us . I guess their prospects will be all the ones to fail and ours will all hit

This team has a good - not great - prospect base right now . There is very little star level talent though . We can hope some of these guys develop into star level quality - but the odds are more won’t even make the NHL .

Our 1st rounders this year have a better chance of never playing then being impact 2nd liners statistically . Obviously scouting and development play a part it isn’t completely random- but the odds are still very low at development into an above average or star level player

There’s a reason 45 players get taken before our 2nd rounders . And of those 45 less then half will end up even having a career

If we get 2 top 6 forwards out of our current crop that is a success . If we find 2 top 4 D (Parekh looks like a safe bet ) that is a success. A few more might end up on your lower lines or 5/6 D if you’re lucky

We are still missing a ton of top end talent and thinking we’re developing 4-5 top 6 forwards and 3-4 top 4 D out of what we currently have is statistically astronomically unlikely

Statistically, you should find a new team to cheer for If this is your outlook.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Who is saying San Jose and Chicago will be bad for a decade?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Mitch

The Hamilton trade came out of nowhere if I remember correctly. Teams were upset they didnt get the chance to bid on him

Which Hamilton trade?

In 2015 it was somewhat similar to Dobson the Bruins could not afford to keep him and he turned down a 6x$5.5 deal and the buzz really picked up draft morning that he was being dealt and it happened quickly.

2018 it was rumored the Flames wanted to shake it up and Hamilton was the piece they were moving. When he went to the Hurricanes it came after rumors the Flames were after Lindholm. Apparently the Blues were very close to getting Dougie before the Hurricanes deal came together. That one seemed to be more drawn out. Similar to Rasmus where we know he is going.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

What a lot of people on this board classify as “super negative” is anyone who doesn’t think Conroy is the greatest GM , that we don’t have the best scouts in the NHL finding us every hidden superstar , that winning culture isn’t actually that important , and that every Flames player will develop into a star !

There’s actually not one person on the board who holds this definition of “super negative.”

This isn’t some psychological quandary or complex assessment. The vast majority of people have pretty common, shared definitions of negativity. And you’re doing yourself no favours by pretending you’re being victimized by some obscure definition that you made up.

[MikePatton]

Seems to me Jason14h has projected GullFoss' opinion onto CP at large. I don't know if it's a misread of fan excitement when discussing prospects or what, but I think that's an inaccurate portrayal.

[FlamesFanInEdmonton]

Yay. Another prospect thread.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

What a lot of people on this board classify as “super negative” is anyone who doesn’t think Conroy is the greatest GM , that we don’t have the best scouts in the NHL finding us every hidden superstar , that winning culture isn’t actually that important , and that every Flames player will develop into a star !

so much unnecessary hyperbole.

There's a lot of balanced opinions on this board. You can be optimistic about the prospect pool and the general direction of the team without classifying Conroy as the greatest GM or our scouts as the best in the league. You can also criticize certain moves or decisions without trashing the whole organization. This isn't black or white. In any case, your description certainly doesn't fit the vast majority of posters on this board.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Which Hamilton trade?

In 2015 it was somewhat similar to Dobson the Bruins could not afford to keep him and he turned down a 6x$5.5 deal and the buzz really picked up draft morning that he was being dealt and it happened quickly.

2018 it was rumored the Flames wanted to shake it up and Hamilton was the piece they were moving. When he went to the Hurricanes it came after rumors the Flames were after Lindholm. Apparently the Blues were very close to getting Dougie before the Hurricanes deal came together. That one seemed to be more drawn out. Similar to Rasmus where we know he is going.

2015. Similar situations to the Dobson and Hamilton.

This one is tricky because they want players.

[MikePatton]

Originally Posted by FlamesFanInEdmonton

Yay. Another prospect thread.

Bring your dish, there's gold in these waters

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Who is saying San Jose and Chicago will be bad for a decade?

Buffalo fans.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Let’s for arguments sake say we are 10th - we didn’t have a top 15 first rounder this year - an extra 32nd overall pick doesn’t really move the needle TBH

And on the roster for young impact players we have Wolf and Cornato

So a 10h ranked farm and 2 impact core players. It’s a ok/good start - but no where near being “almost complete “ or realistically near a competitive core

Yes, but you need a few high end franchise players and depth layers to win. And the flames are doing an A+ job getting those depth layers. And they arguably have two franchise players. The flames are 1-2 franchise forwards away from having a contender imo.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by MikePatton

Bring your dish, there's gold in these waters

Yup..and works both ways.

Johnny Gaudreau, Brett Hull, Pavel Datsyuk and Luc Robitaille among others went after the third round and had terrific careers.


On the other hand, Nail Yakupov (LOL) says hello.

Picking high is no guarantee of diddly-squat. The odds might be better…but they’re still odds. Remind me again what the Greasers have done with those high picks? (that’s for Jason 14h).

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

Yup..and works both ways.

Johnny Gaudreau, Brett Hull, Pavel Datsyuk and Luc Robitaille among others went after the third round and had terrific careers.


On the other hand, Nail Yakupov (LOL) says hello.

Picking high is no guarantee of diddly-squat. The odds might be better…but they’re still odds. Remind me again what the Greasers have done with those high picks? (that’s for Jason 14h).

While it is true you can find talent later in the draft, it is statistically much less likely.

You can use the Oilers as an example but that is a failure by them to surround elite talent with help. If you add McDavid and Draisaitl to any team, that team should have a good chance to win it all. We are just lucky they surrounded them with no goaltending, no depth and bad defense.

Also, the Oilers have won 6 playoff rounds the last 2 years. That is double what we have won in the last 2 decades. While they failed to win a cup, and it is hilarious, most teams would love that level of playoff ticket revenue.

[InternationalVillager]

Byron Bader's prospects model for has the Flames ranked 10th in Skaters with 3 expected Stars and 9.7 expected NHLers.

I'm just referencing the Skaters because we have Wolf in net and he's no longer in the "prospect" list.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

While it is true you can find talent later in the draft, it is statistically much less likely.

You can use the Oilers as an example but that is a failure by them to surround elite talent with help. If you add McDavid and Draisaitl to any team, that team should have a good chance to win it all. We are just lucky they surrounded them with no goaltending, no depth and bad defense.

Also, the Oilers have won 6 playoff rounds the last 2 years. That is double what we have won in the last 2 decades. While they failed to win a cup, and it is hilarious, most teams would love that level of playoff ticket revenue.

A high pick poorly managed can likely/will probably be a flop (Yakupov as above...Bennett for the Flames eg).


A crap pick managed well (any of the others) can blossom.


The issue isn't the picks to me...it's the development and management. I was in management for four decades and some of my crappiest staff originally turned into wonderful employees....because I spent time training and developing them in a careful and considered (IMNSHO) manner.


Personally, I'd rather have a team of generally well-developed players, with a star if possible, who work toegether and communicate well, versus, well...a team like any of those who just don't do that, regardless of whom they have (in theory) on their team. There's examples of generally successful franchises that live in the middle zone of generally being competitive, with the occasional blip up or down (BOS, PIT come to mind).


IMO that's the baseline...build well, be competitive...that will attract others (with any luck at all).

[Paulie Walnuts]

Having a well developed team with maybe a star doesn’t win championships.

[Rhett44]

It is annoying that tanking gets rewarded but it does. The Oilers had no business being in the cup finals twice but McDavid and Draisaitl are the reason.

The Sharks in a few years are going to likely be the next elite team. Drafting 2 elite centers at the top of the draft along with the other talent.

[Enoch Root]

"Flames prospect base is over-rated, because 'statistically, not all prospects make it.'"

Umm, yeah, we know. Interesting counter-point though: neither do other teams'.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

It is annoying that tanking gets rewarded but it does. The Oilers had no business being in the cup finals twice but McDavid and Draisaitl are the reason.

The Sharks in a few years are going to likely be the next elite team. Drafting 2 elite centers at the top of the draft along with the other talent.

The Oilers have 2 elite players, something no team can expect, tank or not tank.

The Sharks have some solid prospects, but the standings are littered with teams who had a bunch of solid prospects. There are no guarantees.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

Picking high is no guarantee of diddly-squat. The odds might be better…but they’re still odds. Remind me again what the Greasers have done with those high picks? (that’s for Jason 14h).

I assume you watched the playoffs the last 2 years where they went to game 7 of the Stanley cup finals and game 5 of the Stanley cup finals?

They are the 2nd most successful franchise over the last 2 seasons behind Florida

If they are the argument that drafting superstars doesn’t work I don’t know what to say . They are the perfect example that a couple superstars can make up for many other deficiencies

I only hope we can experience this level of failure in the future (straight Stanley cup appearances)