Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

It's byelection day in three Alberta provincial electoral districts

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...icts-1.7567336

Edmonton-Ellerslie I think could go either way.

Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills I think is guaranteed to be UCP.

I think Nenshi is as much of a shoe-in as you can expect. I can't see the "traditional" NDP voters turning their back on him.

I voted early on Friday.

It really feels like a two horse race. The AB republican party has been pounding the pavement. They clearly have a lot of money, and have the support of the evangelical community. They have signs everywhere. Many on peoples lawns. They call you twice a day, have taken out local radio spots. They are really working hard.

The UCP should win, Tara Sawyer is the most qualified candidate. The Other large voting block, farmers, should back her. Though it depends on their opinion of the Grain Growers of Canada. The UCP and Danielle Smith have been all over the place attending as many local events as possible. This also tells me that they hear foot steps.

Lots of folks talk about supporting the ANDP but the visual markers are not there. I think that they show a very strong outcome, but the odds of them Bev Toews winning are low.

My gut feeling is that the AB republican win. The evangelical vote is simply too strong. Historically this is the last riding that the Social Credit Party held seats in. It is also one of the most conservative in Canada.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Still would have preferred for Nenshi to go after a seat in Calgary but it is what it is.

He still could and probably should in the general election, but it's important for him to spend a few years in Edmonton to build his brand there

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

He still could and probably should in the general election, but it's important for him to spend a few years in Edmonton to build his brand there

It probably makes sense for him to run in a slightly suburban Calgary riding that the ANDP wouldn't win without him running but will win easily with him running. I'm not saying Calgary West or anything like that, but one of the ones that might be close.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

He still could and probably should in the general election, but it's important for him to spend a few years in Edmonton to build his brand there

Look at the right wing losers Calgary tends to vote in Provincially.

He'll probably get more votes in Edmonton than if he ran in Calgary. Too many people who ended up disliking him by the end of his run as mayor, and probably too many people in Calgary who think he's too far left on the political spectrum.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

Look at the right wing losers Calgary tends to vote in Provincially.

He'll probably get more votes in Edmonton than if he ran in Calgary. Too many people who ended up disliking him by the end of his run as mayor, and probably too many people in Calgary who think he's too far left on the political spectrum.

I don’t think he’s going to try and run in a Calgary riding during the general election but my thinking is that if he can’t win a seat in Calgary then the NDP doesn’t have a chance of flipping enough seats here with him as party leader.

I do think that he could probably flip a seat in Calgary if he were to run here while another NDP candidate would still likely win the seat he is currently running for in Edmonton. If their strategy isn’t going to be focusing on flipping as many seats as possible in Calgary then they aren’t going to win a majority, in which case it doesn’t matter where Nenshi ends up.

[TheIronMaiden]

Looks like a couple of wins for the NDP in Edmonton, and a UCP win in the bible belt.


https://results.elections.ab.ca/8487

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Looks like a couple of wins for the NDP in Edmonton, and a UCP win in the bible belt.


https://results.elections.ab.ca/8487

Nice to see the NDP ahead of the RPA.

[TheIronMaiden]

I think a marker of how responsible and organized a candidate is, is how quickly they remove their lawn signs from public land.

Cam Davies has a million and one out and about. I wonder how many I see tomorrow.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Whynotnow

Nice to see the NDP ahead of the RPA.

I'd like the RPA get more votes in the election so they can start vote splitting the mother.

and yay Nenshi!

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

I'd like the RPA get more votes in the election so they can start vote splitting the mother.

and yay Nenshi!

That never works for long. Eventually they gain enough power and support to take over the existing Conservative party, and then you are governed by what you were trying to avoid.


Still only one workable solution I can come up with.

[Muta]

Those rural Republican Party supporters should sell their land (cheaply, and to me / others here on CP) and move directly to the USA to live in their libertarian paradise (see: Grafton, New Hampshire for an example of this paradise). I whole-heartedly support this recommendation and believe these GOP supporters should act on it as soon as possible to ensure it is a smooth and comfortable process.

[TheIronMaiden]

After the by election there isn't much to talk about RE: AB separatism. 17% of the voter margin in the most conservative/evangelical riding in the province is the high water mark.

[Fuzz]

A tally by Reuters of Alberta Energy Regulator data shows oil and gas producers in the province flared approximately 912.7 million cubic metres of natural gas in 2024, exceeding the annual provincial limit of 670 million cubic metres by 36 per cent.
The province had exceeded the limit in 2023, with regulatory data showing total annual flare volumes of 753 million cubic metres that year.

Bad news: We blew through our gas flaring limit in 2023 and 2024.


Good news: the limit has been eliminated, so that won't be an embarrassment any longer.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...569189?cmp=rss

[KelVarnsen]

The environment is stupid anyways

[Locke]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

The environment is stupid anyways

Whats it even done for us lately? Nothing but complaints and wacky weather!

Stupid environment!

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Bad news: We blew through our gas flaring limit in 2023 and 2024.


Good news: the limit has been eliminated, so that won't be an embarrassment any longer.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...569189?cmp=rss

This is a pretty shallow view of this issue. Facility startups play into it, along with some unplanned outages and equipment malfunctions.

We have a real struggle here to get facilities built. The Capital Cost for a facility in our region is approximately 1.5X cost of competitor. We could add regulations that diminish or eliminate flaring, but that would increase the capital cost of new projects, sometimes substantially. The flares are generally safety related as well- have to have somewhere to put the pressurized gas that doesnt trap it and create other problems. Right now we have strategies to address the additional capital cost and bring us to parity with near competitors like the Gulf Coast. But adding additional capital costs through regulation will likely be a death march for future facility capture, unless we meet it with an incentive to match.

Do we, the taxpayers, want an incentive for flair mitigation? Or do we want to have no more facility development? Or status quo and let it burn?

It's more complex than just Flairing bad and we are really bad!

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

This is a pretty shallow view of this issue. Facility startups play into it, along with some unplanned outages and equipment malfunctions.

We have a real struggle here to get facilities built. The Capital Cost for a facility in our region is approximately 1.5X cost of competitor. We could add regulations that diminish or eliminate flaring, but that would increase the capital cost of new projects, sometimes substantially. The flares are generally safety related as well- have to have somewhere to put the pressurized gas that doesnt trap it and create other problems. Right now we have strategies to address the additional capital cost and bring us to parity with near competitors like the Gulf Coast. But adding additional capital costs through regulation will likely be a death march for future facility capture, unless we meet it with an incentive to match.

Do we, the taxpayers, want an incentive for flair mitigation? Or do we want to have no more facility development? Or status quo and let it burn?

It's more complex than just Flairing bad and we are really bad!

I'd be OK if we were just worrying about Rick Flairing(though the current government may take issue with that, too!)





I do get the complications of flaring, I'm just always amused when we fail to hit targets we don't alter the target to make it more realistic, or find ways to hit them, we just get rid of them. It was a general governance guffaw, not a specific one.

[Monahammer]

Wooooooooooo!

[Barnes]

Saskatchewan has way less production than we do and they flare almost as much as Alberta. Also, increase in flare activity has also seen a reduction in gas venting in Alberta. Flared gas reduces the carbon footprint by 85% vs just dumping it into the air.

[Fuzz]

Saskatchewan, can they do ANYTHING right? Speaking of them and pollution they also decided stopping burning coal was a dumb idea, so are gonna keep at it. Coal will be their bridge to nuclear, which I'm sure is going to happen any day now and is totally not a cop out wishful thinking magic plan.

The good news is Alberta doesn't need gas exports to overseas anymore. The whole pitch is that natural gas can displace coal in the developing world, and we will reduce global pollution that way, right? Well since we apparently have part of the developing world next store, the pipe can be a lot shorter, and so much cheaper and less polluting too! I expect Danielle Smith to start pushing this initiative immediately, it's really a no brainier and she'd be kind of a hypocrite to not do it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saska...ants-1.7564935

I swear we get dumber by the week.