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Old 06-11-2025, 07:58 AM   #2721
fotze2
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Old 06-11-2025, 09:41 AM   #2722
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Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Updated rankings list.

17 rankings
7 needed to get an "average"

Flames ranges in red



Code:
1	M Schaefer	D	1.18

2	Michael Misa	C	2.00

3	James Hagens	C	4.12
4	Porter Martone	RW	4.47
5	Anton Frondell	C	5.18

6	C Desnoyers	C	6.76

7	Victor Eklund	LW	8.35
8	Jake O’Brien	C	9.53

9	Jackson Smith	D	11.06
10	Radim Mrtka	D	11.53
11	Roger McQueen	C	11.82
12	Brady Martin	C	12.12

13	Carter Bear	C	14.18

14	K Aitcheson	D	17.50
15	Braeden Cootes	C	17.80
16	J Carbonneau	RW	17.81
17	Lynden Lakovic	LW	18.35

18	Cole Reschny	C	19.53
19	Logan Hensler	D	20.47
20	Cameron Reid	D	20.63

21	Benjamin Kindel	RW	21.13
22	Malcolm Spence	LW	21.38

23	Cullen Potter	C	23.00
24	J Ravensbergen	G	24.92

25	Ivan Ryabkin	C	26.38
26	Cam Schmidt	RW	26.80
27	Jack Nesbitt	C	27.21
28	Bill Zonnon	Lw	27.63

29	Blake Fiddler	D	29.07
30	S Boumedienne	D	30.07
31	Milton Gästrin	C	30.46
32	Jack Murtagh	C	32.07
33	William Moore	C	33.42
34	J Ihs-Wozniak	RW	34.67
35	Cole McKinney	C	35.00
36	H Brzustewicz	D	36.55
37	Shane Vansaghi	C	37.50
38	Eric  Nilson	C	37.73
39	Adam Benák	C	39.33
40	Ryker   Lee	RW	41.00
41	William Horcoff	C	41.82
42	Kurban Limatov	D	42.57
43	Eddie Genborg	LW	42.70
44	Jack Ivankovic	G	43.00
45	Alex Zharovsky	RW	47.20
46	Haoxi Wang	D	50.00
47	Ethan Czata	C	50.25
48	Nathan Behm	LW	50.89
49	Luca Romano	C	52.89
50	Vaclav Nestrasil	RW	54.80
51	Vojtech Cihar	LW	55.43
52	C Trethewey	D	55.50
53	Owen Conrad	D	56.57
54	Benjamin Kevan	RW	57.73
55	Conrad Fondrk	C	58.33
56	L.J. Mooney	RW	59.88
57	K Epperson	LW	60.00
58	P Andreyanov	G	60.86
59	Matthew Gard	C	61.00
60	Alex Huang	D	64.63

So taking from our ranges I would want:

Reschny, Murtagh then Mooney>Gard>Fondrk>Epperson.

So potentially 3 centers in the first 2 rounds.
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Old 06-11-2025, 10:06 AM   #2723
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19 Logan Hensler D 20.47
I'm unaccountably amused that Hensler finally moved... one spot.
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Old 06-11-2025, 04:59 PM   #2724
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Updated rankings list.

17 rankings
7 needed to get an "average"

Flames ranges in red



Code:
1	M Schaefer	D	1.18

2	Michael Misa	C	2.00

3	James Hagens	C	4.12
4	Porter Martone	RW	4.47
5	Anton Frondell	C	5.18

6	C Desnoyers	C	6.76

7	Victor Eklund	LW	8.35
8	Jake O’Brien	C	9.53

9	Jackson Smith	D	11.06
10	Radim Mrtka	D	11.53
11	Roger McQueen	C	11.82
12	Brady Martin	C	12.12

13	Carter Bear	C	14.18

14	K Aitcheson	D	17.50
15	Braeden Cootes	C	17.80
16	J Carbonneau	RW	17.81
17	Lynden Lakovic	LW	18.35

18	Cole Reschny	C	19.53
19	Logan Hensler	D	20.47
20	Cameron Reid	D	20.63

21	Benjamin Kindel	RW	21.13
22	Malcolm Spence	LW	21.38

23	Cullen Potter	C	23.00
24	J Ravensbergen	G	24.92

25	Ivan Ryabkin	C	26.38
26	Cam Schmidt	RW	26.80
27	Jack Nesbitt	C	27.21
28	Bill Zonnon	Lw	27.63

29	Blake Fiddler	D	29.07
30	S Boumedienne	D	30.07
31	Milton Gästrin	C	30.46
32	Jack Murtagh	C	32.07
33	William Moore	C	33.42
34	J Ihs-Wozniak	RW	34.67
35	Cole McKinney	C	35.00
36	H Brzustewicz	D	36.55
37	Shane Vansaghi	C	37.50
38	Eric  Nilson	C	37.73
39	Adam Benák	C	39.33
40	Ryker   Lee	RW	41.00
41	William Horcoff	C	41.82
42	Kurban Limatov	D	42.57
43	Eddie Genborg	LW	42.70
44	Jack Ivankovic	G	43.00
45	Alex Zharovsky	RW	47.20
46	Haoxi Wang	D	50.00
47	Ethan Czata	C	50.25
48	Nathan Behm	LW	50.89
49	Luca Romano	C	52.89
50	Vaclav Nestrasil	RW	54.80
51	Vojtech Cihar	LW	55.43
52	C Trethewey	D	55.50
53	Owen Conrad	D	56.57
54	Benjamin Kevan	RW	57.73
55	Conrad Fondrk	C	58.33
56	L.J. Mooney	RW	59.88
57	K Epperson	LW	60.00
58	P Andreyanov	G	60.86
59	Matthew Gard	C	61.00
60	Alex Huang	D	64.63
Added this awesome resource to OP for ease of access (below Sandman's FInal Rankings)

Also back from Invermere (shouda stayed) and getting back to some Upside Hockey updates...
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Old 06-11-2025, 10:35 PM   #2725
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Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina View Post
Never claimed they were

Again I simply enjoy reading a variety of opinions.

He offers a compete different perspective which is interesting to me

I think his model has flaws including not factoring in other attributes like size so you see smaller skilled players higher

But that also means he was right about guys like Hutson and Stankoven
If you read his descriptions for each player you see that he did take size into his account in slotting the rankings, for instance it looks like Kindel and Reschny would have been higher if they were bigger.

His rankings are not exclusively based on his model; he says
Quote:
The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve (i.e., how much time do they have to make the big jumps prior to certain age milestones indicative of impactful NHLers), league-specific patterns/anomalies and reputation/rank with reliable resources. These are not scouting reports or a ranking of where we think players will actually be drafted. Rather, our rankings provide a glimpse into who we see making the NHL and becoming stars in the NHL, based on 30+ years of history and distinct pattern detection.
I do enjoy seeing the player comparisons that arise from his model. For instance, he's got McQueen's model comparable as Kirby Dach, which might temper expectations to some degree as to what McQueen might become. But then again drafting at 18, a middle of the lineup player is probably what you can hope for.
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Old 06-11-2025, 11:34 PM   #2726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarus View Post
If you read his descriptions for each player you see that he did take size into his account in slotting the rankings, for instance it looks like Kindel and Reschny would have been higher if they were bigger.

His rankings are not exclusively based on his model; he says


I do enjoy seeing the player comparisons that arise from his model. For instance, he's got McQueen's model comparable as Kirby Dach, which might temper expectations to some degree as to what McQueen might become. But then again drafting at 18, a middle of the lineup player is probably what you can hope for.
I like what Bader does. I have watched videos with him where he talks about prospects, ranking them, statistics, and he doesn't come across as trying to be smarter than everyone. He openly states that the eye tests matter and he can't provide those for every player. He's a stats guy and hockey aficionado. I am sure he saw Zubek and Lisy rank high in the model and was surprised, but he isn't afraid to put his neck out there. I think it actually says a lot of positive things about his model that many of the players that model well and are in his top 32 rank relatively close to the lists of people who actually are scouting the players.
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Old 06-12-2025, 02:28 AM   #2727
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That ranking list is becoming worst case scenario lol. Early centre run likely, weak draft overall …not a great recipe for our pick.
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Old 06-12-2025, 04:04 PM   #2728
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1933266231655870692
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Old 06-12-2025, 04:06 PM   #2729
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More on Ryabkin

https://twitter.com/user/status/1933268160331083977
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Old 06-12-2025, 04:15 PM   #2730
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Old 06-12-2025, 04:36 PM   #2731
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That’s almost where if you have a group of guys that you like at 32, trade back and try and grab an extra 2nd or 3rd. Likely get a guy in the same tier from your list, and then swing for the fences on ryabkin with the extra pick
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Old 06-12-2025, 08:38 PM   #2732
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1933266231655870692
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Old 06-12-2025, 09:27 PM   #2733
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Reschny had a bit of a growth spurt this year I heard. Up to 5'11 at the combine.
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Old 06-12-2025, 11:48 PM   #2734
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Reschny had a bit of a growth spurt this year I heard. Up to 5'11 at the combine.
Yeah I’m having a hard time thinking he’s going to make it to 18 at this point.
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Old 06-13-2025, 12:33 AM   #2735
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Yeah I’m having a hard time thinking he’s going to make it to 18 at this point.
I think he's gone with one of the Montreal picks.
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Old 06-13-2025, 07:26 AM   #2736
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Originally Posted by Samonadreau View Post
I think he's gone with one of the Montreal picks.
I don’t know
They already have a bunch of smaller forwards and you simply can’t have too many on your team
I don’t think they take him
I think they take a guy like Lakovic and a d
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Old 06-13-2025, 07:41 AM   #2737
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I keep thinking that Nesbitt might jump into the middle of the first…
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Old 06-13-2025, 09:15 AM   #2738
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I keep thinking that Nesbitt might jump into the middle of the first…
Hey, if some team ahead of CGY wants to take Nesbitt by all means. Teams must really like the size and net front because from all the video I've seen, there's not much else to vault him into the middle round.
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Old 06-13-2025, 09:23 AM   #2739
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I don’t know
They already have a bunch of smaller forwards and you simply can’t have too many on your team
I don’t think they take him
I think they take a guy like Lakovic and a d
Forward and D makes sense, I think they take a Center, though. Could be Cootes if hes available.

I know you draft by BPA, but with Demidov, Caufeild and Slafkovsky they are pretty stacked on wing already.

Last edited by Samonadreau; 06-13-2025 at 09:26 AM.
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Old 06-13-2025, 09:47 AM   #2740
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Just ran an FC mock and it had
16 - Kindel
17 - Martin

No chance Martin falls that far but if it played out this way, damn.
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