NCAA and NIL with the NHL

[GFG#1]

I am not going to pretend that I fully understand the NIL rules or the NHL or NCAA rules, so someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I think this could have a major impact on the true superstars in the NHL and drafting them. For example, Mckenna.

This is what I am basing my thoughts on.

NHL- under the CBA there is an entry level deal Maximum plus bonuses a player can receive, with max bonus I believe it is around 1.3mil/year 3 year max term.

NCAA NIL- Schools can now pay players for sports using the NIL agreement, this money typically comes from boosters and shell corporations in a round about way, but they can also use Social media to get paid as influencers etc.

NCAA and NHL, after 4 years of College if not signed to an NHL deal the player becomes a UFA. in order to play in NCAA a player can not be signed to an NHL deal(not 1005 sure this last part is still true.)

Understanding that Hockey is not Football, basketball in the NCAA so I don't necessarily see it as a problem for most Players in the NCAA that have been drafted, but Mckenna is different and suspect it would be pretty easy for him to get to $1 million + in NIL agreements. So what incentive does he have to go to the NHL, it used to be to get to the NHL money sooner, but not sure he will need that now.

Why would he put himself in a Bedard or McDavid situation, where you have to go to a losing organization for multiple years until the team finally gets competitive. He could play his 4 years in Collage and then pick any contender he wants.

This concerns me due to Adam Fox, and I really hope the Flames have a chance to draft Mckenna, Ideally with Vegas's pick.

[blankall]

McKenna is not forgoing 4 years of NHL play to get a college degree just so he can pick which team he wants to go to. At the end of the day, if McKenna really wants out of where he's drafted, he can just pressure the team to trade him or sign deals in ways that let the team know he is going to walk for nothing at the first opportunity. See Matthew Tkachuk.

Adam Fox was a 3rd round pick, and a d-man, who wasn't going to start his career in the NHL right away. McKenna would be losing huge amounts of cash to wait things out in the NCAA. Plus, who knows, maybe he gets injured there or has another health issue. Nothing is a guarantee, even at the first overall pick. McKenna 100% signs and plays right away.

[nickerjones]

Good points.


For a kid like McKenna I’m not sure staying in NCAA just to delay NHL entry makes a ton of financial sense unless they’re really focused on controlling where they land (Adam Fox style).

And , unless the NIL market really explodes for hockey, I guess if pure money was the main driver, going to Europe like Auston Matthews did might actually make more sense than staying in NCAA. He went over there and made real money before signing his NHL deal.

NIL is such a tricky thing right now. You’re right it’s mostly football and basketball players seeing the huge NIL deals. I’ve heard about some softball pitchers hitting $1M, but I don’t think we’re seeing that kind of money in hockey yet (I could be wrong though).

But it’ll be interesting to see if this starts to change how teams draft NCAA-bound players. Or if there is now an opportunity for GMs to try to close to 4 year NCAA loophole.

[GFG#1]

Originally Posted by blankall

McKenna is not forgoing 4 years of NHL play to get a college degree just so he can pick which team he wants to go to. At the end of the day, if McKenna really wants out of where he's drafted, he can just pressure the team to trade him or sign deals in ways that let the team know he is going to walk for nothing at the first opportunity. See Matthew Tkachuk.

Adam Fox was a 3rd round pick, and a d-man, who wasn't going to start his career in the NHL right away. McKenna would be losing huge amounts of cash to wait things out in the NCAA. Plus, who knows, maybe he gets injured there or has another health issue. Nothing is a guarantee, even at the first overall pick. McKenna 100% signs and plays right away.

He may want to make his mark sooner rather then later, start getting NHL stats etc. I believe they still have to sign an entry level deal after 4 years, but I think its only for 1 or 2 years?(again not certain) so that may play a role in the decision.

Obviously top athletes in College are football and basketball, again not arguing that.
https://www.si.com/college-basketbal...-via-nil-deals

Olivia Dunne is on this list at 4.1 million gymnastics and she wasn't even the best gymnast, she was an alternate for a lot of her time at LSU. (I also get her gymnastic skills are also not the reason for the majority of her followers)

But looking at the list it really doesn't look like it would be that hard for someone like McKenna to make 1 mil plus at a school with a good hockey program and a following. I don't think he would be giving up much money.

looking at getting 4 years of stats, think about if Bedard had gone this route and then after his 4 years are up picked Toronto, Florida, Edmonton. Nuggent Hopkins had 100 point season in Edmonton, I would think Bedard could top that, so it wouldn't take too many seasons to probably jump ahead in the stat line over 4 years of 60-80 point seasons.

NIL is just getting started, I am not saying it is 100% going to be an issue with McKenna just that in the future it could be, and who knows. The money was a big factor when they couldn't make money in the NCAA but they can now, and IMO it may become a problem in the future.

[Geeoff]

Well, you'd have to assume that someone like McKenna would like to burn through that ELC ASAP, so they can get to the real money. As before, I think the greatest risk to play out their NCAA career and go to free agency are late bloomers that got drafted later in the draft

[Kipper_3434]

1.3m excludes performance bonus' I believe. Also not except from sponsorship deals in the NHL. I would imagine McKenna will make 6-10m in the first 3 years in the league.

Most important point is that even in your scenario, McKenna would still have to sign an entry-level contract after college, and wait another 2 (I think) seasons before making the BIG bucks.

[ForeverFlameFan]

^ McKenna is better off just signing a 5 year deal post-ELC if he really hates the team he plays for. If you’re good enough, it’s better to make the NHL asap.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GFG#1

He may want to make his mark sooner rather then later, start getting NHL stats etc. I believe they still have to sign an entry level deal after 4 years, but I think its only for 1 or 2 years?(again not certain) so that may play a role in the decision.

Obviously top athletes in College are football and basketball, again not arguing that.
https://www.si.com/college-basketbal...-via-nil-deals

Olivia Dunne is on this list at 4.1 million gymnastics and she wasn't even the best gymnast, she was an alternate for a lot of her time at LSU. (I also get her gymnastic skills are also not the reason for the majority of her followers)

But looking at the list it really doesn't look like it would be that hard for someone like McKenna to make 1 mil plus at a school with a good hockey program and a following. I don't think he would be giving up much money.

looking at getting 4 years of stats, think about if Bedard had gone this route and then after his 4 years are up picked Toronto, Florida, Edmonton. Nuggent Hopkins had 100 point season in Edmonton, I would think Bedard could top that, so it wouldn't take too many seasons to probably jump ahead in the stat line over 4 years of 60-80 point seasons.

NIL is just getting started, I am not saying it is 100% going to be an issue with McKenna just that in the future it could be, and who knows. The money was a big factor when they couldn't make money in the NCAA but they can now, and IMO it may become a problem in the future.

College athletes don't get paid. They are allowed to make money off their image. No one is paying college hockey players big money for endorsements.

I think I posted it in another thread, about how ridiculous it was that Karprizov, after winning the Calder, was doing an ad for Supercuts, and that add had to state who he was.

College Basketball/Football are huge sports. Many times bigger than the NHL. Particularly in a few states.

Many college gymnasts are in the olympics, before they go to college. Also, Livvy Dunne is very good looking and has a huge social media following. According to her wiki page, she has over 8 million followers on social media.

Bedard is also already earning $4,450,000/year. It's way too much money to leave on the table. Plus, the other option of just being a prima donna and forcing a trade is so much better.

[FlamesAddiction]

I would be shocked if McKenna doesn't sign a contract right after being drafted. Players with that pedigree typically go right to the NHL.

A big reason for junior players to opt for university is simply to have access to better facilities. I would imagine most NCAA Division I teams have it more comfortable than most small city WHL teams. Plus someone like McKenna is probably way better served focussing on training and strength, which college athletes get to do. He doesn't need to do another WHL full season grind to get better.

[Finger Cookin]

This is an interesting discussion. Poking around online a little bit after reading the OP, a few things jumped out to me that could help inform this discussion.

It seems like some of the maximum money for hockey players earning NIL currently is around $100K or so a season. A player like McKenna could conceivably top that quite easily, but even doing so doesn't bring him close to ELC money.

Under an ELC, with maximum signing, Type A, and Type B bonuses, a player could conceivably earn up to nearly $4.5M a season. Practically, that would mean a near impossible run of absolute league and team dominance. Realistically, anyone earning $2M per season while signed to an ELC is doing exceptionally well.

McKenna is a late birthday, still 17 until December 20 this year. If he goes NCAA, doesn't sign with his draft team, and bides his four years in order to handpick his team, he'll still be 21 on Sept 15 of the first year of any NHL contract. Meaning he would still be subject to a 3 year ELC. So, assuming all goes well and he's the player people expect he will be, he would be cashing in for a big contract in his Draft +8 year.

If he simply goes the traditional NHL route and makes the league as a 17 or 18 year old, by the time he's in his Draft +8 year he could be only 1 or 2 years into a monstrous 8 year extension.

I think NIL is a great thing for all college athletes. It may continue to grow to the point where it is a legitimate consideration between signing a pro contract or not. But it's nowhere near there yet, I don't think. Not when you're a tip-top prospect comparing earnings of possibly $6M-$8M in your 7 years after being drafted and sticking with the NCAA/choose your pro team route, vs. what could amount to something like potentially $25M-$40M in those same 7 years by going pro right away.

Interesting discussion though, for sure.

[Canada 02]

Here is the long list of CHL players who have committed to the NCAA. This list does not include Ryder Ritchie who is going to BU. By my count, there are 170 players so far

https://www.sportsnet.ca/juniors/art...college-ranks/

[getbak]

I think the fact that any player would still need to sign an ELC after he graduates makes this less attractive of an option. Also, for the top players, the ELC "A" bonuses are pretty attainable, which would bring their total close to $2 million, and those ELC years get you even closer to signing the big second contract.


One thing I think we might see more of is mid-first rounders not signing their ELCs during the summer after the draft and going to training camp, but choosing to play one or two years in the NCAA.

It won't likely change the decision for a player like McKenna, who's likely to make the jump to the NHL right away, but it will probably change things for guys like Parekh and Gridin.

[Tbull8]

McKenna signs with Penn State

[GFG#1]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

This is an interesting discussion. Poking around online a little bit after reading the OP, a few things jumped out to me that could help inform this discussion.

It seems like some of the maximum money for hockey players earning NIL currently is around $100K or so a season. A player like McKenna could conceivably top that quite easily, but even doing so doesn't bring him close to ELC money.

Under an ELC, with maximum signing, Type A, and Type B bonuses, a player could conceivably earn up to nearly $4.5M a season. Practically, that would mean a near impossible run of absolute league and team dominance. Realistically, anyone earning $2M per season while signed to an ELC is doing exceptionally well.

McKenna is a late birthday, still 17 until December 20 this year. If he goes NCAA, doesn't sign with his draft team, and bides his four years in order to handpick his team, he'll still be 21 on Sept 15 of the first year of any NHL contract. Meaning he would still be subject to a 3 year ELC. So, assuming all goes well and he's the player people expect he will be, he would be cashing in for a big contract in his Draft +8 year.

If he simply goes the traditional NHL route and makes the league as a 17 or 18 year old, by the time he's in his Draft +8 year he could be only 1 or 2 years into a monstrous 8 year extension.

I think NIL is a great thing for all college athletes. It may continue to grow to the point where it is a legitimate consideration between signing a pro contract or not. But it's nowhere near there yet, I don't think. Not when you're a tip-top prospect comparing earnings of possibly $6M-$8M in your 7 years after being drafted and sticking with the NCAA/choose your pro team route, vs. what could amount to something like potentially $25M-$40M in those same 7 years by going pro right away.

Interesting discussion though, for sure.

Yeah I am not certain it is there yet for McKenna either as NIL is still in its very early stages, I just used him as an example as he is well above average so could earn top dollars. There would definitely be risk going College route as injuries could happen through everything off course.

I do think it could be in the future, and the NHL should probably start looking at this and trying to close the loophole.

[Bonded]

There would have to be real money for it to be an impact on the draft. If it does pick up traction then I wonder if they’d lift the age of the draftees

[Sylvanfan]

I don't see college hockey ever matching what the NHL can pay. The other factor...level of Competition. Unlike most of us regulars hoping to pay for our next meal...NHL players are driven by competition. So really beating up on inferior players for 4 years is not the best competition, and might ultimately limit what a player becomes. It's one thing for a guy like McKenna where Junior isn't really offering up a new challenge, but he can't play pro in North America. So for one year the NCAA offers a step up against older players. But I doubt a player this good stays there for more than a year, and a lesser prospect (note he's being compared to McKenna) like a Parehk might stay for two type of thing.

This all said, as much as NCAA teams will want the best players, a lot of coaches want to build a program and them winning still matters. So if you're cycling in new players every season and don't have guys staying for 3 and 4..that program is harder to build.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

McKenna signs with Penn State

He hasn't signed anywhere yet.

He hasn't even met with any NCAA teams yet.

[getbak]

One thing the NHL could do (and probably should do) is significantly increase in ELC compensation limits.


Twenty years ago, when the salary cap was first introduced, the cap was $39 million and the maximum ELC compensation was $850,000. The maximum for Schedule A bonuses (for individual performance) was $850,000 (4 x $212,5000) and for Schedule B bonuses (for major league awards) was $2,000,000 total.


Under the current CBA rules, a player drafted in 2025 can sign an ELC with a maximum salary of $975,000 (increasing to $1 million next year) and the maximum for "A" bonuses is $1,000,000 (4 x $250,000) and the "B" maximum is $2.5 million. Next year's cap will be $95.5 million.



The cap is 2.45 times what it was 20 years ago. Meanwhile, the ELC maximum is only 1.15 times larger, the Schedule A limit is 1.18 times larger, and the Schedule B limit is 1.25 times larger.

Entry level players have lost significant ground since the salary cap was introduced. If ELC compensation had kept pace with the growth in the cap, the ELC max would be over $2 million now.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by getbak

One thing the NHL could do (and probably should do) is significantly increase in ELC compensation limits.


Twenty years ago, when the salary cap was first introduced, the cap was $39 million and the maximum ELC compensation was $850,000. The maximum for Schedule A bonuses (for individual performance) was $850,000 (4 x $212,5000) and for Schedule B bonuses (for major league awards) was $2,000,000 total.


Under the current CBA rules, a player drafted in 2025 can sign an ELC with a maximum salary of $975,000 (increasing to $1 million next year) and the maximum for "A" bonuses is $1,000,000 (4 x $250,000) and the "B" maximum is $2.5 million. Next year's cap will be $95.5 million.



The cap is 2.45 times what it was 20 years ago. Meanwhile, the ELC maximum is only 1.15 times larger, the Schedule A limit is 1.18 times larger, and the Schedule B limit is 1.25 times larger.

Entry level players have lost significant ground since the salary cap was introduced. If ELC compensation had kept pace with the growth in the cap, the ELC max would be over $2 million now.

They should also make it so the team that drafted the player can offer more on an ELC to discourage players from not signing with the team that drafted them. Either in term, dollars, or both.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by getbak

One thing the NHL could do (and probably should do) is significantly increase in ELC compensation limits.

The cap is 2.45 times what it was 20 years ago. Meanwhile, the ELC maximum is only 1.15 times larger, the Schedule A limit is 1.18 times larger, and the Schedule B limit is 1.25 times larger.

Entry level players have lost significant ground since the salary cap was introduced. If ELC compensation had kept pace with the growth in the cap, the ELC max would be over $2 million now.

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

They should also make it so the team that drafted the player can offer more on an ELC to discourage players from not signing with the team that drafted them. Either in term, dollars, or both.

I like this idea. What if ELC did not count towards the cap at all for teams that drafted a player? They must be a fairly small percentage of the payroll for a team anyway generally speaking?