2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Psytic

You work with the hand you are dealt of course, but statistically it hasn't worked out when this happens is what the data is saying. Now if we trade Coleman, Andersson and maybe even someone else to sink enough to draft a 1C...things change, because they look like they already have the elite D in the pipe.

No offence but the data isn’t really saying that, it’s just saying what you want it to say which is what ChatGPT does if you frame things with a bias. Some of those examples clearly don’t fit, and other examples actually go against what you’re saying. For example, Montreal DID draft a center in the top 3… who just didn’t work out. Not sure how that’s on Price or the fact that he was drafted first.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

No offence but the data isn’t really saying that, it’s just saying what you want it to say which is what ChatGPT does if you frame things with a bias. Some of those examples clearly don’t fit, and other examples actually go against what you’re saying. For example, Montreal DID draft a center in the top 3… who just didn’t work out. Not sure how that’s on Price or the fact that he was drafted first.

Holding the right draft position does not exclude a team from being stupid. What Montreal did was stupid. They drafted for positional need when all things weren't equal. It should always be BPA, or when all things equal C>D>W.

Drafting Kotkaniemi when Tkachuk (better) and Hughes (better) were right there was just bad management, and no matter the pick position you just can't overcome being bad at managing a hockey team...unless you're the Oilers and you get McDavid and Draisaitl, two talents so good that you can in fact overcome stupidity.

Consensus (I know, doesn't exist) had Kotkaniemi back at like 10th overall that year. What Montreal did was stupid.

From the hockey writers consensus, 2018:

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Tkachuk
5. Hughes
6. Wahlstrom
7. Dobson
8. Bouchard
9. Boqvist
10. Kotkaniemi

How the draft played out:

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Kotkaniemi - haha MTL
4. Tkachuk
5. Hayton - haha ARZ (consensus: 11)
6. Zadina
7. Hughes
8. Boqvist
9. Kravtsov (consensus: 19)
10. Bouchard
11. Wahlstrom
12. Dobson

[Ped]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Holding the right draft position does not exclude a team from being stupid. What Montreal did was stupid. They drafted for positional need when all things weren't equal. It should always be BPA, or when all things equal C>D>W.

Drafting Kotkaniemi when Tkachuk (better) and Hughes (better) were right there was just bad management, and no matter the pick position you just can't overcome being bad at managing a hockey team...unless you're the Oilers and you get McDavid and Draisaitl, two talents so good that you can in fact overcome stupidity.

Consensus (I know, doesn't exist) had Kotkaniemi back at like 10th overall that year. What Montreal did was stupid.

That's all true, but obviously there are other factors. That's why Draisatl went 4th, and looked like he could be heading to bust territory early.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Ped

That's all true, but obviously there are other factors. That's why Draisatl went 4th, and looked like he could be heading to bust territory early.

I don't think he was ever looked at as heading into bust territory. He went 3rd because Buffalo (dumb team) messed up and thought too little of Draisaitl's skating, and Florida got their #1 top end defenceman (Ekblad) because they already had Barkov in the previous years draft.

Drafted in 14, and in 37 games in 14/15, Draisaitl put up 9 points.

In 15/16, put up 51 in 72
In 16/17, put up 77 in 82.

Draisaitl was never in bust territory.

Buffalo screwed up, because that's what stupid teams do...they also made it even worse when they dealt Reinhart who they took at #2 for pennies.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Holding the right draft position does not exclude a team from being stupid. What Montreal did was stupid. They drafted for positional need when all things weren't equal. It should always be BPA, or when all things equal C>D>W.

Drafting Kotkaniemi when Tkachuk (better) and Hughes (better) were right there was just bad management, and no matter the pick position you just can't overcome being bad at managing a hockey team...unless you're the Oilers and you get McDavid and Draisaitl, two talents so good that you can in fact overcome stupidity.

Consensus (I know, doesn't exist) had Kotkaniemi back at like 10th overall that year. What Montreal did was stupid.

From the hockey writers consensus, 2018:

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Tkachuk
5. Hughes
6. Wahlstrom
7. Dobson
8. Bouchard
9. Boqvist
10. Kotkaniemi

How the draft played out:

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Kotkaniemi - haha MTL
4. Tkachuk
5. Hayton - haha ARZ (consensus: 11)
6. Zadina
7. Hughes
8. Boqvist
9. Kravtsov (consensus: 19)
10. Bouchard
11. Wahlstrom
12. Dobson

Cool, I’m talking about Alex Galchenyuk.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Whatever happened to the rumours of the Kings putting Brandt Clarke on the block? Now there’s a kid I would back up the truck for.

If I recall it was a total nothing burger. Fan blogger stuff with no basis in reality. In fact I believe Blake at the time laugh out loud hard at the idea.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Cool, I’m talking about Alex Galchenyuk.

Citing the worst draft in modern NHL history, fair enough.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Psytic

You work with the hand you are dealt of course, but statistically it hasn't worked out when this happens is what the data is saying. Now if we trade Coleman, Andersson and maybe even someone else to sink enough to draft a 1C...things change, because they look like they already have the elite D in the pipe.

I'm not arguing that the Flames should build around Wolf and not try and draft an elite center. But when you have an elite young goalie you shouldn't take it for granted.

These suggestions even if the person knows it won't happen that they should maybe try and trade Wolf for a chance to draft an elite center are silly.

And as it's already been stated, you can manipulate ChatGPT into telling you what you want to hear.

[RedHawk12]

Originally Posted by Psytic

Fair enough. I rephrased the question to Chat GPT.

What number of NHL teams in the last 15 years have become contenders when they have an elite goaltender early in their retool or rebuild.


ChatGPT said:


(Total: 6)

Montreal Canadiens – Carey Price

Buffalo Sabres – Ryan Miller

Florida Panthers – Roberto Luongo

NY Islanders – Rick DiPietro

Minnesota Wild – Niklas Bäckström

Calgary Flames – Miikka Kiprusoff

✅ How Many Became Real Contenders or Cup Teams?
0 out of 6 became true, sustained contenders (multiple playoff rounds, consistent Cup potential).

Montreal made one Final (2021) but was not a sustained contender.

Even giving Montreal partial credit, that’s 1 out of 6, or roughly 17% success rate.

📊 Estimated Success Rate:
🔥 ~0–17% of teams that built starting with an elite goaltender early in a rebuild became contenders in the last 15 years.

In contrast, nearly every modern Cup winner or finalist had elite skaters in place before goaltending solidified.

AI isnt the end all be all obviously, and I don't really think DiPietro would be considered elite at the NHL lvl either but food for thought.

I think you need something like a good goaltender, 2 elite forwards and 1 elite defenseman as a core to win a cup. Your chances diminish significantly if you don't have any of those.

Just because we don't have an elite forward yet, doesn't mean we need to trade our young elite goaltender to get one. You'd then waste prime years of your elite forward trying to find an elite goaltender (see Flames post-Kiprusoff).

It is also premature to say that Wolf is preventing us from getting an elite forward because he's too good. Luongo didn't prevent Florida from drafting 3rd OA in '03 (Nathan Horton) and 7th OA in '04 (Rustislav Olesz). MAF didn't prevent Pittsburgh from getting Crosby and Malkin.

On the other hand, Celebrini didn't prevent SJ from finishing last this season. Bedard didn't prevent Chicago from finishing second last this season and last season. A big part of the reason they're bad is because they have Blackwood/Vanacek and Mrazek in net.

The order in which you get these elite players do not matter. You just need to get them all.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Holding the right draft position does not exclude a team from being stupid. What Montreal did was stupid. They drafted for positional need when all things weren't equal. It should always be BPA, or when all things equal C>D>W.

Drafting Kotkaniemi when Tkachuk (better) and Hughes (better) were right there was just bad management, and no matter the pick position you just can't overcome being bad at managing a hockey team...unless you're the Oilers and you get McDavid and Draisaitl, two talents so good that you can in fact overcome stupidity.

Consensus (I know, doesn't exist) had Kotkaniemi back at like 10th overall that year. What Montreal did was stupid.

From the hockey writers consensus, 2018:

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Tkachuk
5. Hughes
6. Wahlstrom
7. Dobson
8. Bouchard
9. Boqvist
10. Kotkaniemi

How the draft played out:

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Kotkaniemi - haha MTL
4. Tkachuk
5. Hayton - haha ARZ (consensus: 11)
6. Zadina
7. Hughes
8. Boqvist
9. Kravtsov (consensus: 19)
10. Bouchard
11. Wahlstrom
12. Dobson

Every team should get it right every time in projecting what 18 year old players will be like in 5-10 years.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I like Byram. I remember watching one of his Mic'd up/behind the scenes videos and he's hungry to be a #1 defenceman.

I doubt it's possible, but if you could somehow get Buffalo (worst run team in the league by a good stretch) to bite on a package somewhere in the value of Hamonic's return, it's not a bad one to go with. Late 1st + 2nd + 2nd or equivalent (Late 1st + 2nd + Pospisil?), that'd be a great move - but understand Buffalo is probably more focused on their immediate needs.

I doubt they want picks. If I were BUF I would probably ask for a package around Coronato.
Something like Coronato + Andersson for Byram + Tuch.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Cool, I’m talking about Alex Galchenyuk.

Doesn't go counter to any of the stats. If your team has an elite goalie early in the cycle and you are still bad enough to draft high, statistically you have a better chance of getting the players you need to be a contender (ie. Tampa). Because Montreal drafted a bust doesn't disprove the rule that drafting higher is better. The Flames however are not in a position to be drafting top 10 while they have the elite goalie unless we start moving more vets.... it needs to happen if they really want to win the cup. This is where people get off on bringing Kadri up all the time along with Coleman and Andersson.

If you have Wolf and start trying to money puck picks for young middle sixers to inch this thing into a wild card 1 team... its not going to allow you to get the high picks you need that statistically have a higher chance to get an impact player. The plan of "we will just hope we hit a home run on our mid round picks" doesn't work. I'm also not sure, same as Moustache, that elite goaltending is the end all be all.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Ped

Agreed. But what is the likelihood of that continuing?

Not particularly high but if the team is managed right the overall impact becomes negligible. If kadri gets anywhere near thirty goals again im happy.

To me as i have mention its the gaping chasm between kadri and frost and backs thats the issue. Dont know a 100 % if Rossi is the guy to fill the gap but to me the gap is there.

We need a pseudo first line center to push kadri and begin filling the age gap for kadri and the chasm between kadri and backs. We need a couple of center prospects to fill the need as backs and kadri age out.

Kadri
Rossi
Frost
Backs

Thats really deep as i expect much better from frost this year.
I am all for using some of our wing depth to get near the top ten and hope one of mqueen or obrien or martin falls.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Citing the worst draft in modern NHL history, fair enough.

lol pay attention to what is being talked about if you’re going to respond. The position was that drafting Price early stopped Montreal from drafting their elite center, when in fact drafting Price early had literally nothing to do with it, as noted by the fact that they were able to draft a center in the top three (which in any other draft would have been much better).

Originally Posted by Psytic

Doesn't go counter to any of the stats. If your team has an elite goalie early in the cycle and you are still bad enough to draft high, statistically you have a better chance of getting the players you need to be a contender (ie. Tampa). Because Montreal drafted a bust doesn't disprove the rule that drafting higher is better. The Flames however are not in a position to be drafting top 10 while they have the elite goalie unless we start moving more vets.... it needs to happen if they really want to win the cup. This is where people get off on bringing Kadri up all the time along with Coleman and Andersson.

If you have Wolf and start trying to money puck picks for young middle sixers to inch this thing into a wild card 1 team... its not going to allow you to get the high picks you need that statistically have a higher chance to get an impact player. The plan of "we will just hope we hit a home run on our mid round picks" doesn't work. I'm also not sure, same as Moustache, that elite goaltending is the end all be all.

OK, but you suggested that drafting a good to elite goalie early makes it harder for you to become a contender, which on even basic human analysis (doing the work and citing the Price/Montreal example) seems to have very little to do with it.

If you want to move the goalposts and pretend that’s never what the stats were showing, fine, because I don’t think the ChatGPT stats show anything at all.

Some of you guys are so obsessed with maintaining this narrative that you’re debating points that were never made.

Just to drive this point home, go look at Montreal’s roster in the year they drafted their top 3 center and think again about “we need to move more vets.” They’re just one from that list that doesn’t support any part of this argument.

[Johnny Makarov]

you guys wanting the Flames to tank are inzayne. We play in the worst division in the league and we will be in the playoff race every year.

We have a better chance of a top 10 pick with the Vegas pick than ours. They are going down next year!

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Fan69

He just had a thirty plus goal season. Thats first line numbers 30+ or not.

He’d be a#2C on a contender like he has was when he won a cup. It’s not a dig against him but he is just slotted too high and on the wrong side of 30.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Whatever happened to the rumours of the Kings putting Brandt Clarke on the block? Now there’s a kid I would back up the truck for.

Probably just noise like the McTavish stuff

[Royle9]

Kings have interest in Andersson and Pospisil but I haven’t heard Brandt being available at this point. Building a deal around that would be fun tho!

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Holding the right draft position does not exclude a team from being stupid. What Montreal did was stupid. They drafted for positional need when all things weren't equal. It should always be BPA, or when all things equal C>D>W.

Drafting Kotkaniemi when Tkachuk (better) and Hughes (better) were right there was just bad management, and no matter the pick position you just can't overcome being bad at managing a hockey team...unless you're the Oilers and you get McDavid and Draisaitl, two talents so good that you can in fact overcome stupidity.

Consensus (I know, doesn't exist) had Kotkaniemi back at like 10th overall that year. What Montreal did was stupid.

From the hockey writers consensus, 2018:

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Tkachuk
5. Hughes
6. Wahlstrom
7. Dobson
8. Bouchard
9. Boqvist
10. Kotkaniemi

How the draft played out:

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Kotkaniemi - haha MTL
4. Tkachuk
5. Hayton - haha ARZ (consensus: 11)
6. Zadina
7. Hughes
8. Boqvist
9. Kravtsov (consensus: 19)
10. Bouchard
11. Wahlstrom
12. Dobson

Kotkaniemi wasn't as much of a reach as the Hockey Writers' list makes it out to be. Mckenzie's final analysis is insightful, as he was one of the big risers in the draft during the year and shot up to top five in the scout's consensus rankings because of his play at the World under 18. Martin might get the same love this year, just like Sennecke last year.

The reason why it sticks out is because Tkachuk and Zadina had been locked into the top 5 the whole year... so they were expected to go earlier... and because of the Montreal fans at the draft's reaction, which was hilarious.

In saying that, their list was pretty great that year--better than McKenzie's consensus.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

We have a better chance of a top 10 pick with the Vegas pick than ours. They are going down next year!

Why would Vegas, regress?

Forward core and defense core are all under contract,

Where is the regress coming from?