2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Toonage

No mention of the 2025 picks which is interesting

I think it is simply because of the draft being weak, and knowing exactly where those draft picks are.


They don't want to trade those future unknown picks since they could be very high.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Parallex

He'll need to start making some bigger gambles if that's the case. I don't see a Stanley Cup favorite core here right now so he's gonna need to connect on some all-or-nothing home-run cuts.

I mean unless Dustin Wolf is a flash in the pan (I don't think he is) or has a sophmore slump (no reason to think he will) surefire star level core players aren't coming from the draft, they're hard to get in trade, and cost a fortune on the free agent market if you can convince them to sign. So he's gonna need to get lucky somewhere.

Gambling on Rossi/Byram/Zegras is exactly that kind of move. Will need luck for them to breakout but they aren’t getting an Eichel until a franchise loses it mind.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

So weird why the Blues didn't go all-in given the fit. He would have been an even bigger star in that city. That said looking back on things I'm not sure if they are better today with Tkachuk over Thomas.

Tkachuk is one of the very best players in the league and I would take him over Thomas on my team any day. I agree with your take it is pretty wild the Blues wouldn’t have been more aggressive in their pursuit unless they had some false sense of confidence that Tkachuk was going to force his way there.

Let’s say in 5 years Tij Iginla is coming off a season where he just got 40 goals and 100+ points for the first time. He is a RFA and does the same move as Tkachuk and wants to be dealt with the Flames as one of his preferred teams. I absolutely would want Conroy to do almost anything to make that happen. That is how Armstrong should have handled the Tkachuk situation in my opinion

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

The requirement of luck is really no different than it is for any other team.

Not even #1 overalls are surefire star level core players. If you expect the impossible you’re just trying to disappoint yourself.

I show from 2004-2018 that 46% of players drafted 1OV not only are 1st liners but Hall of famers/Cup Winners or guys that are in the Hart, Art Ross or Rocket Richard race annually.

Crosby
Ovechkin
McDavid
MacKinnon
Matthews
Stamkos
Kane

7 out of 15 and you still have

Tavares
Dahlin
Hall
Nuge
Hischier
Ekblad

I would say at least 10 are #1 guys that can be massive parts of winning a cup.

2OV is very similar.

It's once you get to 3OV that the odds go way down and trading players just to tank and missing the top 2 picks that it really gets questionable if it's worth it.

But tanking by trading Kadri, Coleman and Rasmus IMO makes the most sense. Get assets even if they are middling and increase our odds of drafting a star if we dip down far enough to pick in the top 5.

Also adding bullets in the draft helps. Odds of getting 2 top 6 forwards, top 4 d or a #1 goalie when you have 9+ picks in a draft past the top 5 vs 5 or less is

My data is not complete, but I show the following for 2004 -2018 (Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, Calgary and Carolina completed)

Teams with a draft of 9+ - 5 drafts and 7 players draft that meet the above criteria
6-8 picks - 33 drafts and 22 players that meet the criteria
5 or less picks - 14 drafts and 9 players that meet the criteria

Teams that have extra picks rarely go the entire draft without at least 1 impact player selected vs 5 or less picks the odds of completely striking out are high.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Gambling on Rossi/Byram/Zegras is exactly that kind of move. Will need luck for them to breakout but they aren’t getting an Eichel until a franchise loses it mind.

That is why I brought up Thomas for Tkachuk discussion. Even if the rumor wasn't legit, many viewed him as someone who isn't a #1 center and not in Tkachuk's level.

Fast forward and he is a #1 center and has a long-term steal contract.

Thomas might be better than Rossi but the rumored ask and upside is no brainer to make the move. Just not sure why we keep Kadri over Frost, and someone has to go if we add him.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

That is why I brought up Thomas for Tkachuk discussion. Even if the rumor wasn't legit, many viewed him as someone who isn't a #1 center and not in Tkachuk's level.

Fast forward and he is a #1 center and has a long-term steal contract.

Thomas might be better than Rossi but the rumored ask and upside is no brainer to make the move. Just not sure why we keep Kadri over Frost, and someone has to go if we add him.

I'm in favour of trading for Rossi, but a quibble on Thomas, as he was clearly already seen as a number 1 centre, which is why he wasn't being offered up in a Tkachuk deal.

I think Rossi will take that next step, but there's a better deal to be had than trying to pry Thomas from St. Louis at the time, because Minnesota doesn't want to sign Rossi for what he thinks he's worth and he's short, so fewer teams will be in on him. There's big value there.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

That is why I brought up Thomas for Tkachuk discussion. Even if the rumor wasn't legit, many viewed him as someone who isn't a #1 center and not in Tkachuk's level.

Fast forward and he is a #1 center and has a long-term steal contract.

Thomas might be better than Rossi but the rumored ask and upside is no brainer to make the move. Just not sure why we keep Kadri over Frost, and someone has to go if we add him.

They keep Kadri because he doesn’t want to move. It’s that simple

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Tkachuk is one of the very best players in the league and I would take him over Thomas on my team any day.

At the time of the trade, most posters felt that Calagry was getting the best player in the trade. And that Tkachuk was simply a function of Johnny, and he'd wouldn't reach those scoring heights ever again.

It was only Florida's GM who labelled Tkachuk a unicorn, and many posters here made fun of him for saying that.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Bonded

They keep Kadri because he doesn’t want to move. It’s that simple

For 1 more year and then they can trade him to 18 teams without asking.

Kadri would move to a few teams, I think it the situation presents itself you move on it even if the return isn't great.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

I'm in favour of trading for Rossi, but a quibble on Thomas, as he was clearly already seen as a number 1 centre, which is why he wasn't being offered up in a Tkachuk deal.

I think Rossi will take that next step, but there's a better deal to be had than trying to pry Thomas from St. Louis at the time, because Minnesota doesn't want to sign Rossi for what he thinks he's worth and he's short, so fewer teams will be in on him. There's big value there.

Easy to say now when he was over a PPG for the last 2 years. Not the feedback I got when I said that we should do that trade, if possible, a few summers ago.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

For 1 more year and then they can trade him to 18 teams without asking.

Kadri would move to a few teams, I think it the situation presents itself you move on it even if the return isn't great.

I think if he was open to moving he’d be on the Avs or Leafs

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I think if he was open to moving he’d be on the Avs or Leafs

Yes, but if he knows he is going to move at some point does he open that list up knowing he can move to 18 teams next summer. I'm sure he has a few places he might be interested in over all the 18 teams that he can't block just 1 year from now.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Easy to say now when he was over a PPG for the last 2 years. Not the feedback I got when I said that we should do that trade, if possible, a few summers ago.

No, it's just the facts.

Read the section of that article that talks about Thomas becoming the 1A centre over O'Reilly, as it was written right after the Tkachuk trade and referred to the previous season before the trade. He scored 77 points in 72 games that season. He was clearly a number 1.

I'm not disagreeing with you that some people might have disagreed with you to go after him for Tkachuk, but he had already established himself as a number 1. Rossi hasn't done that yet.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Easy to say now when he was over a PPG for the last 2 years. Not the feedback I got when I said that we should do that trade, if possible, a few summers ago.

I don't recall much discussion about Thomas but there are always a myriad of opinions about different things. Are you sure you aren't getting a little too focused on what a small number of posters said?

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't recall much discussion about Thomas but there are always a myriad of opinions about different things. Are you sure you aren't getting a little too focused on what a small number of posters said?

Yep. In fairness to Macho, message boards can certainly feel like the whole board disagrees if a couple aggressive posters pile on a particular opinion!

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

No, it's just the facts.

Read the section of that article that talks about Thomas becoming the 1A centre over O'Reilly, as it was written right after the Tkachuk trade and referred to the previous season before the trade. He scored 77 points in 72 games that season. He was clearly a number 1.

I'm not disagreeing with you that some people might have disagreed with you to go after him for Tkachuk, but he had already established himself as a number 1. Rossi hasn't done that yet.

How many people wrote the article? Just one person's opinion.

Both Thomas and Tage Thompson were 2 RFAs that signed that summer (Tage a year early). Both had 1 break out season under their belt and both were wanting big money, and a fair number of posters didn't think they had proven enough to command the money. Both proved that to be wrong immediately.

There was a fair number of people that thought Tkachuk was worth quite a bit more than Thomas and there was at least 1 page of straight bashing Buffalo for Tage's contract before I jumped in saying it was a good deal for Buffalo. People needed to see more.

Rossi seems to be in a similar boat with a fair number of posters saying similar things. You are flat out saying the same thing that he is not #1 because of 1 60-point season.

If you can trade a late 1st and sign him long term even if the AAV is north of $8M, you do it. Cap is escalating quickly for the next few years and he's a potential #1 center that would be a good #2 and that money will be #2 money and I really doubt the contract moves into an untradeable contract.

Only issue I have is 4 centers who need more than 15 minutes of ice. Kadri should be the one that goes but if you flip Frost out, I guess that is an ok plan B.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I show from 2004-2018 that 46% of players drafted 1OV not only are 1st liners but Hall of famers/Cup Winners or guys that are in the Hart, Art Ross or Rocket Richard race annually.

No doubt, but the point is that it isn’t a guarantee, and as you pointed out, the chances drop dramatically while still in the tank range.

Luck still plays a huge factor as to whether you end up with the next Sidney Crosby, which can’t be found anywhere else, or the next RNH, which can be found all over the 1st round (if you’re lucky).

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

Yep. In fairness to Macho, message boards can certainly feel like the whole board disagrees if a couple aggressive posters pile on a particular opinion!

And you are right it might be 15 posters out of 1000 that thought that. I'm just presenting a case that Rossi situation is similar to Thomas situation and I'm not arguing with the Blues management or the hockey writers, just CP posters.

Minnesota doesn't think he is worth the money, let's take advantage of that

[Just a guy]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

How many people wrote the article? Just one person's opinion.

Both Thomas and Tage Thompson were 2 RFAs that signed that summer (Tage a year early). Both had 1 break out season under their belt and both were wanting big money, and a fair number of posters didn't think they had proven enough to command the money. Both proved that to be wrong immediately.

There was a fair number of people that thought Tkachuk was worth quite a bit more than Thomas and there was at least 1 page of straight bashing Buffalo for Tage's contract before I jumped in saying it was a good deal for Buffalo. People needed to see more.

Rossi seems to be in a similar boat with a fair number of posters saying similar things. You are flat out saying the same thing that he is not #1 because of 1 60-point season.

If you can trade a late 1st and sign him long term even if the AAV is north of $8M, you do it. Cap is escalating quickly for the next few years and he's a potential #1 center that would be a good #2 and that money will be #2 money and I really doubt the contract moves into an untradeable contract.

Only issue I have is 4 centers who need more than 15 minutes of ice. Kadri should be the one that goes but if you flip Frost out, I guess that is an ok plan B.

I disagree with flipping Kadri at this point. If you bring in Rossi you move Frost or Zary to the wing. It is not like the Flames have a lot of depth at center and having an "extra" on the wing is good in my opinion. I suspect that if we traded Kadri we would regret it soon afterwards once an injury hit or someone goes cold.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

No doubt, but the point is that it isn’t a guarantee, and as you pointed out, the chances drop dramatically while still in the tank range.

Luck still plays a huge factor as to whether you end up with the next Sidney Crosby, which can’t be found anywhere else, or the next RNH, which can be found all over the 1st round (if you’re lucky).

I 100% agree I just don't see the current Flames roster as full of players we can't move.

Wolf
Coronato
Parekh

IMO that's all we have and 1 hasn't even played a season yet. We have tons of key contributors that could move in a tank and are not in the long-term plans or don't project to be top tier players. I trust that out scouts with extra picks will keep the system full of potential. If they don't, most teams that fail at drafting have no hope anyways.

I think Conroy's list is the correct list and that is what is exciting and maybe keeping some vets and moving the young players that have got a look and clearly do not project to be top line can move. I just feel there is more risk with that than trading a Kadri.

Rasmus probably is gone

Kadri and Coleman stay, fine if the return isn't great but then you need to look at other options

Frost
Zary
Sharangovich
Farabee

I just don't see the young guys bringing more in a trade and there is risk if you identify a young player as having limited potential and you are wrong, that player moves on and elevates his play and you end up with a Bennett type scenario. You could end up with a Valimaki scenario to and it works out, just have to except there is some risk as a GM you are wrong.

Coleman and Kadri don't have much risk as there years contributing are numbered and I think we have enough vets to support young players.

The chance at a superstar vs Kadri and Coleman moving for nothing is still worth it. The difference of a late 1st vs 2nd turning into a star is around 1%