ECR2: Florida Panthers (A3) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (A1) - PANTHERS WIN 4-3

[Erick Estrada]

I realize he's supposedly not 100% but he's the forward version of Hellebuyck. The regular season player and the playoff player are simply not the same guy.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Andrew

He is from Toronto right. It's comes down to money. I am sure he believes they can turn it around? I am going go stop posting. Clearly spending too much time on here dealing with ppl like you.. somebody that has addiction to arguing with ppl on internet. Nothing better to do i guess?

Dont worry bro, I know it's a difficult truth for OOT fans to grasp that this is a Flames-centric forum that brings a high probability of Flames-centric opinions that won't be particularly flattering towards teams like Toronto and Edmonton.

It's tough to digest.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I hate that there are three different ways of laying out points for four players.

If we just go with all playoffs games for the same set of players since 2019:

Nylander: 50 points in 52 games
Tavares: 33 points in 49 games
Matthews: 51 points in 53 games
Marner: 49 points in 55 games

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Nelson

Okay, I disagree. I think you can look at things like players’ positions, birth months, stats, and skill sets and get a good idea of which players would be good for your team in the draft. These players are not completely unpredictable. Teams don’t have to be agnostic. They make decisions based on concrete information. And based on mock drafts and rankings, I think the later you go in the first round of this draft, the more likely you are to be picking a player who turns into nothing at all based on his numbers. It’s about probabilities. Of course, you’re right. You can also find drafts where the best player is taken in the 2nd round, etc. But I think moving down 7-10 spots in the draft, from 22 to 29-32, will hurt the Flames’ chances of getting a really good prospect out of this draft.

I definitely understand your position is it’s a crapshoot whether it’s 22 or 29-32. And I have to admit that the specific players, whom I want for the Flames, could all be gone by 22. In that case, I will agree with you. Haha

With Ottawa losing their pick the Flames were looking at getting the 21st player in the draft, now we'll likely beg that it's the 31st as we'll need the Panthers to beat the Oilers again.

So statistically, you can still find a NHL player in that range, but the odds do that do start to dwindle. Even picking 28 vs 30 seems to make a difference. When you're down that far, you need other teams around you to miss and a bit of luck. Realistically that pick has about a 25% chance of playing 200 games as a Flame, whereas 10 spots higher it would likely be more in the 35% range, and a better chance of it being a more impactful player.

By quick browsing Adrian Kempe is far and away the best player picked in that 28 to 31 range since like 2012 and he was pick 29. So with Florida likely being pick 30 or 31 that group is Ryan Hartman and Henri Jokiharju. Now there are others picked after that who are quite good. But yeah, this pick has a 75% bust rate if we're being honest.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

With Ottawa losing their pick the Flames were looking at getting the 21st player in the draft, now we'll likely beg that it's the 31st as we'll need the Panthers to beat the Oilers again.

So statistically, you can still find a NHL player in that range, but the odds do that do start to dwindle. Even picking 28 vs 30 seems to make a difference. When you're down that far, you need other teams around you to miss and a bit of luck. Realistically that pick has about a 25% chance of playing 200 games as a Flame, whereas 10 spots higher it would likely be more in the 35% range, and a better chance of it being a more impactful player.

By quick browsing Adrian Kempe is far and away the best player picked in that 28 to 31 range since like 2012 and he was pick 29. So with Florida likely being pick 30 or 31 that group is Ryan Hartman and Henri Jokiharju. Now there are others picked after that who are quite good. But yeah, this pick has a 75% bust rate if we're being honest.

Then hopefully we're that 25%!

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Auston Matthews has 3 Goals in 16 Playoff games this season and last season. Also no Goals in the 4 Nations. Seems like he doesnt have the next gear to pick it up to Playoff mode.

Auston 3:16 says "Playoffs? We talking 'bout Playoffs?"

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by activeStick

If we just go with all playoffs games for the same set of players since 2019:

Nylander: 50 points in 52 games
Tavares: 33 points in 49 games
Matthews: 51 points in 53 games
Marner: 49 points in 55 games

But that wasn’t the point. Games 6 and 7 are elimination games, and game 5 is either also an elimination game or it sets up an elimination game.

[FanSince'01]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

With Ottawa losing their pick the Flames were looking at getting the 21st player in the draft, now we'll likely beg that it's the 31st as we'll need the Panthers to beat the Oilers again.

So statistically, you can still find a NHL player in that range, but the odds do that do start to dwindle. Even picking 28 vs 30 seems to make a difference. When you're down that far, you need other teams around you to miss and a bit of luck. Realistically that pick has about a 25% chance of playing 200 games as a Flame, whereas 10 spots higher it would likely be more in the 35% range, and a better chance of it being a more impactful player.

By quick browsing Adrian Kempe is far and away the best player picked in that 28 to 31 range since like 2012 and he was pick 29. So with Florida likely being pick 30 or 31 that group is Ryan Hartman and Henri Jokiharju. Now there are others picked after that who are quite good. But yeah, this pick has a 75% bust rate if we're being honest.

Apparently, Ottawa decided to keep their 2025 first:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1922724505916469381

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Don’t let Dino7c see those stats.

Do you just talk about me all day long lol?

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Ped

If you watch that Dangle video above, the stats are illuminating..


Since 2019, in Games 5, 6, and 7 in the playoffs:
Nylander - 16 points in 19 games
Tavares - 5 goals and 10 points in 16 games
Matthews - 7 goals and 4 assists in 17 games
Marner - 0 goals and 6 assists in 19 games

Outside of Marner, those aren't terrible numbers.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Marner is leaving regardless from what I have heard since almost the start of the season.

Didn't you say, numerous times, that Marner will not leave?

Originally Posted by bluejays

I've said numerous times that Marner will eventually go. He just doesn't want to give up his position that he's willing to go to anyone. He's a fragile guy when it comes to criticism (I get it, at times I can be the same especially if I feel it's undue). The second he or the team goes through a tough stretch, eyes will immediately turn to him. He knows it. If it's a compelling city for him, I have no doubt he'll go. There just has to be an incentive. Marner for Askarov would be giving up too much for the Leafs though. Probably a bigger set of stuff going from Nashville, I'd guess.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I have said numerous times he won't. He doesn't want to go anywhere and holds all the cards. The Leafs will absolutely re-sign Marner. It will be fun to see who has the scoop here.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

My understanding with Marner is both the team and the player want him to stay. He will either get an extension done with the Leafs or become a UFA. He has no reason to waive his NMC.

On Tavares, looks like he is leaving, or staying, or both.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Tavares will be off the books or back at a very cheap price. They absolutely can do it if they fill the bottom half of the roster with cheap players and entry level guys.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Tavares is definitely signing.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Itse

Outside of Marner, those aren't terrible numbers.

Except if you look at what ActiveStick posted, it's clear their numbers take a huge drop (with the exception of Tavares, who still drops but much less) from Games 1-4, through Games 5-7.


Nylander:
Games 1-4 34 points in 33 games 1.03 PPG
Games 5-7 16 points in 19 games 0.84 PPG


Matthews:
Games 1-4 40 points in 36 games 1.11 PPG
Games 5-7 11 points in 17 games 0.65 PPG


Tavares:
Games 1-4 23 points in 33 games 0.70 PPG
Games 5-7 10 points in 16 games 0.63 PPG


Marner:
Games 1-4 43 points in 36 games 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 6 points (0 goals) in 19 games 0.32 PPG

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Woof. Marner drops off a cliff in the back half of series.

[Zulu29]

Maybe I’m in the minority here, but I’m quite comfortable with the thought of us picking 32 with Florida’s pick…

[ResAlien]

The way Marner is being run down by some for being a huge useless sack of crap only makes me want him more. Feels like that treatment is usually reserved for guys who inevitably flourish somewhere else. Member when people had no interest in Eichel because his neck was a pez dispenser? Or "can't win with him" O'Reilly? Or "product of playing with MacKinnon" Rantanen?

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

The way Marner is being run down by some for being a huge useless sack of crap only makes me want him more. Feels like that treatment is usually reserved for guys who inevitably flourish somewhere else. Member when people had no interest in Eichel because his neck was a pez dispenser? Or "can't win with him" O'Reilly? Or "product of playing with MacKinnon" Rantanen?

Yep. There's a huge unpredtability factor in changing scenery, especially if it's the first move they've made.

Trying to predict what they'll be based on how they've performed in the same place they've been all their career is a fools errand.

In as many cases as not, it turns out that they were held back or plateaud as a result of the team/role/environment and a bigger role elsewhere served as a catalyst.

[dino7c]

Without out Marner the Leafs wouldn't get to the back half of the series or the playoffs even.

My prediction is Marner goes to Carolina, is a great player, wins a cup...Leaf fans pokemon face

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Maybe I’m in the minority here, but I’m quite comfortable with the thought of us picking 32 with Florida’s pick…

certainly not the worst possible outcome

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Yep. There's a huge unpredtability factor in changing scenery, especially if it's the first move they've made.

Trying to predict what they'll be based on how they've performed in the same place they've been all their career is a fools errand.

In as many cases as not, it turns out that they were held back or plateaud as a result of the team/role/environment and a bigger role elsewhere served as a catalyst.

What gives you any indication that Marner is being "held back or plateaud" by feeding passes to Matthews/Nylander/Tavares, and would flourish in a place like Calgary that does not have such scorers on the roster (aside from maybe Kadri)?

[Paulie Walnuts]

I think the guy averaging 52 goals per season has a lot more to do with the Leafs making the playoffs with or without Marner.