Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Locke]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

here we go again. The issues from last year never were resolved and the new deadline is near.


Canada Post pauses talks with union ahead of looming possible strike

https://globalnews.ca/news/11179238/...news-on-talks/

Thats interesting. One would have thought that considering on their last strike people hardly noticed they were gone that their bargaining position would have softened.

[indes]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I'm always way out of my depth when it comes to the pipeline debates, so I try to ask questions rather than chime in.

Can someone explain to me like I'm 5 why what he's saying is incorrect?

Transmountain utilization was 77% over 2024 but they save 20% for spot shipments. They plan on being 97% (scheduled) utilized by 2028. Other than that fact he's not necessarily wrong about anything. It's just disingenuous on his part to imply that world peak oil demand is the only thing that would be considered as part of building an east west pipeline. It was also disingenuous to imply that demand is the only reason no companies want to build a pipeline like that.

There are many other factors to consider:
Energy independence
Price differential for current production
Canadian refining potential
Market share (just because demand has peaked doesn't mean there isn't demand)
"Ethically sourced Oil" Market share
Industry and job creation
Spurring innovation
Environmental impacts
Cost/Risk


EDIT: I mean it's not his portfolio and it's an extremely complex situation - he should have deferred instead of speaking for the government on a file that's not his.

I'm 100% on board with an east west pipeline but who knows if it ever gets done. The government would have to do it so not sure the appetite will be there.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Locke

Thats interesting. One would have thought that considering on their last strike people hardly noticed they were gone that their bargaining position would have softened.

I think the union lost a lot of goodwill in November/December, also.

A lot of businesses lost a good chunk of their yearly income because of the strike and then all the people who had delayed Christmas packages.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by indes

I'm 100% on board with an east west pipeline but who knows if it ever gets done. The government would have to do it so not sure the appetite will be there.

Can't remember where I read it, but I think Quebecers are actually warming to the idea due to Trump's threats/tariffs, etc... Considering what we're facing as a country, I could absolutely see this getting done at some point.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Locke

Thats interesting. One would have thought that considering on their last strike people hardly noticed they were gone that their bargaining position would have softened.

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I think the union lost a lot of goodwill in November/December, also.

A lot of businesses lost a good chunk of their yearly income because of the strike and then all the people who had delayed Christmas packages.

I can't imagine a strike today having the same impact as before Christmas. I guess they only have so many levers to pull, but this seems like a bad strategy for a business that is already under a lot of pressure.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Slava

I can't imagine a strike today having the same impact as before Christmas. I guess they only have so many levers to pull, but this seems like a bad strategy for a business that is already under a lot of pressure.

Anecdotally of course, but I have a number of letter carriers as clients and they all triggered early retirement the second they could.

Essentially with the same mindset of 'this ship is going down.'

[indes]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Can't remember where I read it, but I think Quebecers are actually warming to the idea due to Trump's threats/tariffs, etc... Considering what we're facing as a country, I could absolutely see this getting done at some point.

I hope so. I think when you start looking at the cost and timeline to get something like that done the interest will fade. Does Carney have the political capital to invest $120bn on a 4600km (3x as long, 3x the cost?) pipeline that will take a decade to build and will most likely never pay for itself?

Optimistically maybe they have pipeline companies in every province work on their section, and it could get done in a few years? I just don't see it. I'm a mechanical project planner for a major and it just seems so far-fetched that this would ever get done.

[Manhattanboy]

Here's the story in the NP:

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...uilbeault-says

That's the thing about Liberals. They always know better. The private sector may say there's demand for new facilities, but no, the Guilbeault and the Liberals always know better.

And they love to govern. They love to regulate. They dream about new ways to interfere and regulate.

Here's one example, the Competition Bureau's new greenwashing regulations have actually caused issuers to stop disclosing their climate initiatives. What the #### does the Competition Bureau have to do with environmental policy? Oh and now they are considering striking down exclusivity clauses in shopping centre leases. Yes, apparently common arrangements that have been in leases for years where a landlord agrees that Shoppers Drug Mart gets to be the only drug store in the landlord's neighbourhood shopping centre is now suddenly a threat to competition in Canada. Incredible.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by indes

Transmountain utilization was 77% over 2024 but they save 20% for spot shipments.

Is it 77% for both lines combined, or just the new one? If that figure is the combined total, then the new line's utilization would be a bit lower than that (given that the prior one was normally at 99%), probably around 60-65%.

Still not near 40% though, so I suspect Guilbeault is either lying/misinformed, or perhaps bending things by intentionally omitting the volume of refined product that goes through the pipeline.

[indes]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Here's the story in the NP:

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...uilbeault-says

That's the thing about Liberals. They always know better. The private sector may say there's demand for new facilities, but no, the Guilbeault and the Liberals always know better.

And they love to govern. They love to regulate. They dream about new ways to interfere and regulate.

Here's one example, the Competition Bureau's new greenwashing regulations have actually caused issuers to stop disclosing their climate initiatives. What the #### does the Competition Bureau have to do with environmental policy? Oh and now they are considering striking down exclusivity clauses in shopping centre leases. Yes, apparently common arrangements that have been in leases for years where a landlord agrees that Shoppers Drug Mart gets to be the only drug store in the landlord's neighbourhood shopping centre is now suddenly a threat to competition in Canada. Incredible.

Loving the NP opinion piece followed by 3 complaints, all unrelated to the article with no source, facts or actual thoughts. You might as well just post the tweets.

[indes]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Is it 77% for both lines combined, or just the new one? If that figure is the combined total, then the new line's utilization would be a bit lower than that (given that the prior one was normally at 99%), probably around 60-65%.

Still not near 40% though, so I suspect Guilbeault is either lying/misinformed, or perhaps bending things by intentionally omitting the volume of refined product that goes through the pipeline.

That's for both lines combined. They left 20% open for spot shipments, which ended up being lower than expected and are slowly ramping up scheduled shipments to be at 97% capacity for 2028. Subject to change if they start getting more spot shipments but it's looking unlikely.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Yes, apparently common arrangements that have been in leases for years where a landlord agrees that Shoppers Drug Mart gets to be the only drug store in the landlord's neighbourhood shopping centre is now suddenly a threat to competition in Canada. Incredible.

I mean, yeah. That's a pretty blatant example of anti-competition.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by indes

Loving the NP opinion piece followed by 3 complaints, all unrelated to the article with no source, facts or actual thoughts. You might as well just post the tweets.

Sorry I did not split my thoughts into separate posts for your convenience or otherwise live up to your standards.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I mean, yeah. That's a pretty blatant example of anti-competition.

But my point is why now? Exclusivity clauses are common and have been around for decades. It’s how landlords are able to attract stable tenants with good covenants.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

But my point is why now?

Because it's anti-competitive. If that's your logic, why do anything at anytime that's never been done before? It's a failure of previous governments that nothing has been done until now.

Exclusivity clauses are common and have been around for decades.

That doesn't mean they're good or right. That's what's known as an appeal to tradition fallacy.

It’s how landlords are able to attract stable tenants with good covenants.

Being good for landlords doesn't mean it's good for consumers. Isn't the main argument in favour of capitalism, competition is good for consumers?

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Titan2

I would like to hear some specifics on why you feel the people you are criticizing did not measure up. "Lost Trudeau Years" is not an answer. I would like to hear your specific concerns.

It seems like a double edge sword. Someone with experience in a portfolio is biased. But someone with no experience has no experience. What is it we want out of our Cabinet Ministers?

Steven Guilbeault:

• The guy is literally a Greenpeace extremist activist that's been arrested for activist activities, and chained himself to oil equipment, etc.
• Has championed the emissions cap, which is essentially a production cap for Canadian producers. It makes zero sense for a resource & export economy like Canada to shoot ourselves in the foot with self-induced caps
• He introduced Bill C-10, which became its successor C-11, which IMO is a an atrocious piece of legislation that has resulted in significant destruction in Canada having a free media. If this legislation was passed by Conservatives, the amount of uproar you would have seen would have been insane.
• Continued layering of red tape and bureaucracy to the regulatory framework of infrastructure projects in Canada. The environmental assessment framework of the country is completely broken and convoluted and contributes to the lack of investment in the country.

Chrystia Freeland:

• Grossly incompetent finance minister that did nothing to control the government's spending while running up insane deficits even post-COVID, while adding ~50% more public service jobs
• Continually gaslit Canadians multiple times that it was not the government spending that was out of control, but Canadians just didn't understand. Then completely flipped and turned the tables on her biggest advocate when she stepped down, not taking any responsibility for her part in why Canadians were upset
• Obviously knew that releasing the fiscal outlook this past year would outrage Canadians, so kept being cagey and delaying the release of the numbers
• Did nothing as a senior cabinet member to prevent any government scandals and obvious conflicts of interest like the WE Charity scandal

Sean Fraser:

• Has been the cabinet minister for both housing and immigration, which are arguably the two places the government has failed the most and what most Canadians are upset with.
• By Trudeau's own admission, Canada's immigration policy got too big for its britches, which Fraser is accountable for. You've brought in record numbers of immigrants with limited additional housing, health care infrastructure, employment, etc.
• Looking at the G7, housing costs in Canada have gone up over the last decade significantly more than any other country. Is that all Fraser's fault? Of course not, but as housing minister for part of that, he should have some accountability

What I want out of cabinet ministers is competence, first and foremost. I don't care whatsoever how much experience they have, you won't see any mention of that in my posts. Competence in their field is the number one criteria. I see the above three, through their incompetence, as heavily contributing to the factors that made myself and other Canadians upset at the previous administration, so I am disappointed to see them have positions in the current cabinet. Does that mean I don't think Carney will do a good job? No, just disappointed with these choices.

[Manhattanboy]

Rube I’m going to dig into this further because I doubt this was the result of consumers or small businesses lobbying for years for change. I suspect the bureaucrats came up with it on their own.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by indes

I'm 100% on board with an east west pipeline but who knows if it ever gets done. The government would have to do it so not sure the appetite will be there.

This is where people need to pay attention. Carney said "if there is interprovincial appetite" he will support, knowing full well Quebec has said no.

He has retained the eviro-nut and is allowing him to speak on environmentalism. Not the Quebec stuff he is supposed to.

Then you have Caney with that background of his.

I don't think we can decide if Carney will be a better friend to Canada (not oil patch, oil patch benefits all Canadians). Mr. Fantastic Sam's haircut sure isn't, and Carney has a taste for the green BS that has hampered our country for a decade.

Likely same plan, with some careful new messaging is my bet.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Looks like we have already heard from him and already causing controversy. Unless he gets muzzled by Carney, we will hear a lot more.

Who cares?

It's not his portfolio. When he talks about subject X or Y and it's not part of his portfolio then what he says is about as meaningful as what you, I, or a random hobo in the alley says about X or Y.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Rube I’m going to dig into this further because I doubt this was the result of consumers or small businesses lobbying for years for change. I suspect the bureaucrats came up with it on their own.

Are you for or against removing inter-provincial trade barriers? If for removal, why now? Which bureaucrats may have come up with this on their own?