Flames top prospects according to FAN960

[edslunch]

If the average career for a solid NHL player is 7 years (wild guess) and every team has say 9 solid F, 4 solid D, 1 solid G, and a bunch of replacement players, then teams need to graduate 2 solid NHL players on average each year. and add to the fairly large pool of replacement players.

Following this logic, which I totally made up, 2 of these players should make the Flames this coming season, or at least play their way into a full time role the following season like Klapka did. 2 more the following year, then they start to age out, so maybe one more. Meanwhile new picks are coming in to fill the pipeline. I don't see the Flames ever graduating more than 2 players a year into full-time roles.

Based on this I could see Parekh and one of Suniev/Honzek/Brzustewicz making the team next season in terms of players who are the most ready. Gridin looks like a lock in a year or two. The guys going to NCAA probably 2 years away. The rest I don't know. It's also likely that one or two of the main spots will be taken by less sexy picks, particularly on D, and players like Morton will rotate into the replacement player slots.

Not a great analysis, but it does suggest that while the Flames might have more than 5 really good prospects on the list it's unlikely they will all play for the Flames or even other teams due to the numbers game.

[Funkhouser]

Parekh
Brz
Suniev
Battaglia
Basha
Morin
Gridin
Mews
Honzek
Misa


I think Honzek and Gridin will disappoint
I think Basha, Battaglia and Suniev will exceed expectations

[HighLifeMan]

It’s interesting to see the handful of guys here limiting the upside of Honzek (a 20 year old kid) based on his rookie year as a professional where the majority of his draft class was still playing junior hockey. That jump for a 19 year old kid is tremendously difficult. Do we forget how great Honzek looked in camp? His upside is obvious. His skating, size, and hands give him an edge up on 95% of our pool.The inability to stay healthy is the major concern at the moment. It just amazes me how quick we can be to disregard these kids. It’s funny how playing and sticking at a much higher level of hockey is viewed as a bad thing to some.

Look at a guy like Will Cuylle who put up 48 points in 78 games during his D+3 year in the AHL and is now an untouchable piece for the Rangers after his D+5 year. Kaspar was also called a bust after being under .5 in the ahl at 19.

[prizefighterinferno]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

It’s interesting to see the handful of guys here limiting the upside of Honzek (a 20 year old kid) based on his rookie year as a professional where the majority of his draft class was still playing junior hockey. That jump for a 19 year old kid is tremendously difficult. Do we forget how great Honzek looked in camp? His upside is obvious. His skating, size, and hands give him an edge up on 95% of our pool.The inability to stay healthy is the major concern at the moment. It just amazes me how quick we can be to disregard these kids. It’s funny how playing and sticking at a much higher level of hockey is viewed as a bad thing to some.

Look at a guy like Will Cuylle who put up 48 points in 78 games during his D+3 year in the AHL and is now an untouchable piece for the Rangers after his D+5 year. Kaspar was also called a bust after being under .5 in the ahl at 19.

Fair points.

Again, the biggest thing for me is that the high-end production has just never really been there. That's not to say that with his skating,PK ability, shot and versatility that he couldn't still become a useful bottom-sixer at some point if his health holds up. I just don't see a guy who can think it well enough (or consistently enough maybe) to be a real impact guy at any point.

[FlamesAddiction]

It's easy to forget that Honzek was good enough to make the team out of camp this past season and looked pretty good. He really needs to stay healthy to get his career back on track though. I get ranking him a little lower because a young player missing so much development time is never a great sign for their future, but I think there is still a lot of potential there. It's hard to be optimistic at this point though.

Stromgren is one that I have a hard time getting a handle on. People more dialed in than me seem to rank him pretty high, but I don't see it. If he makes it, I think it will be in the bottom 6, likely as a 4th liner. He isn't old by any means, buy I think typically when a player is in the 22/23 year old and 3rd pro season, you want to see them get a few NHL games by that point if they are going to make it. Next season is a big one for him. Plus, if things go as we hope they do, there is going to be an influx of young forwards into the system in the next couple of seasons. You never want to be older guy left over when that happens.

Here is my laymen's list:

1. Parekh
2. Gridin
3. Brz
4. Mews
5. Battaglia
6. Suniev
7. Basha
8. Honzek
9. Sergeev
10. Morin

HM: Stromgren, Zarubin, Kerins, Misa, Grushnikov

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by prizefighterinferno

Fair points.

Again, the biggest thing for me is that the high-end production has just never really been there. That's not to say that with his skating,PK ability, shot and versatility that he couldn't still become a useful bottom-sixer at some point if his health holds up. I just don't see a guy who can think it well enough (or consistently enough maybe) to be a real impact guy at any point.

If he becomes a 25 goal, 55 point second line winger that’s great value for a 16th overall pick. I certainly believe he has the ability to get there. I know we all hope for more with 1st round picks but the reality is most struggle to become NHL regulars.

[TheScorpion]

I would be surprised and happy if Honzek becomes a 30 point guy in the NHL

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

It’s interesting to see the handful of guys here limiting the upside of Honzek (a 20 year old kid) based on his rookie year as a professional where the majority of his draft class was still playing junior hockey. That jump for a 19 year old kid is tremendously difficult. Do we forget how great Honzek looked in camp? His upside is obvious. His skating, size, and hands give him an edge up on 95% of our pool.The inability to stay healthy is the major concern at the moment. It just amazes me how quick we can be to disregard these kids. It’s funny how playing and sticking at a much higher level of hockey is viewed as a bad thing to some.

Look at a guy like Will Cuylle who put up 48 points in 78 games during his D+3 year in the AHL and is now an untouchable piece for the Rangers after his D+5 year. Kaspar was also called a bust after being under .5 in the ahl at 19.

Not limiting his upside, nor am I "disregarding him". His AHL play hasn't been consistent enough for my liking, but it's his 1st year. I'm really high on some of the other prospects, and like their ceiling better at the NHL level, that's all.

[Finger Cookin]

I'll be thrilled if 4-5 of these listed prospects become regular FT NHLers. The future does look bright. Need to add to it this draft.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I would be surprised and happy if Honzek becomes a 30 point guy in the NHL

Awaiting your Samuel Frickin' Honzek thread and avatar change if he scores 30 points in a season someday. He'll be like a younger faster David Jones.

[dammage79]

Honzek is going to be a slow burn development. Flames just need to be a bit more patient.

[Dan403]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Honzek is going to be a slow burn development. Flames just need to be a bit more patient.

The Flames are patient.

The “brain trust” here, no so much.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I'd put Basha as high as 5th. Reminds me a lot of Jake Guentzel.

I don't get the love for Honzek. He's had flashes, but is still a long way from NHL ready and didn't look that great in the AHL last year. I know that development may take a little longer for the taller guys, but I don't know that I have him in my top 10 right now.

The way some people talk about Honzek now reminds me of me of how some people used to talk about Zary.

Too early to write this kid off, especially invite of his injuries. I’d be interested to see what a full year injury free might mean for his development.

[FlamesPuck12]

Slightly off topic, how does Parekh compare to Iggy Jr. after this year? I remember a lot of fans were annoyed with missing out on Iggy but did we end up with a better prospect?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Honzek is a project but he's not far off from guys like Ciona for me at this point. Bottom-six upside and still far away.

If he were a second rounder he wouldn't even be on the radar.

Some of the Honzek takes are just wild. He is the only guy on these lists that made the NHL out of camp, as a 20 year old. Parekh will be the only other.

Calling him Ciona is just wild. 30 pt upside in the NHL? Wild.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I would be surprised and happy if Honzek becomes a 30 point guy in the NHL

One comparison I saw recently for Honzek was Michael Handzus. Honestly, if he can provide that level of play for a 3rd liner (3C hopefully) won’t catch me complaining.

I’ll be interested to see how he does at the WC’s.

[Enoch Root]

My list:

Parekh
Gridin
Brzustewicz
Honzek
Morin
Suniev
Battaglia / Basha / Mews
Sergeev

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

My list:

Parekh
Gridin
Brzustewicz
Honzek
Morin
Suniev
Battaglia / Basha / Mews
Sergeev

Lol, my list would be quite similar to this, except Suniev would be after Mews.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Honzek is a project but he's not far off from guys like Ciona for me at this point. Bottom-six upside and still far away.

If he were a second rounder he wouldn't even be on the radar.

I think the opposite. I think some fans expe t 1st rounders to be good immediately, and get impatient when they aren’t.

If Honzek was a 2nd or 3rd rounder, fans would be all excited about him as found money, like they are with Suniev

[Nelson]

Below, I have the prospect’s birth month, followed by their draft year NHLe, draft +1 year NHLe, etc. Looking at these numbers, my generalization is the Flames need to draft more high scoring forwards. I don’t really think the Flames have any game-breaking forwards in the system, maybe some solid NHLers though, don’t get me wrong. But, for example, if the Flames were to draft Cole Reschny and Ben Kindel, those two prospects would be ranked 2 and 1 in terms of draft year NHLe amongst the Flames’ forward prospects and only behind Parekh overall. (So, I’m really hoping the Flames draft those two prospects and give their pool a nice boost.)

Zayne Parekh - February - 38.5, 46.5
Henry Mews - March - 24.9, 31.9
Hunter Brzustewicz - November - 22.2, 36.4, 18.2
Rory Kerins - April - 24.4, 46.6
Jacob Battaglia - March - 25.7, 35.5
Luke Misa - November - 32.5, 33.6
Matvei Gridin - March - 30.6, 32.9
Andrew Basha - November - 33.4, 31.2*
Aydar Suniev - November - 19.2, 22.4, 35.0
Etienne Morin - March - 25.0, 19.7, 21.8
Samuel Honzek - November - 32.3*, 23.3*, 16.1

William Stromgren - June - D+3 = 15.8, D+4 = 27.9