Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

During Carney's speech last night he reinterated his plan on making Canada an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy. Smith's congratulatory note expressed her desire to work with the federal government. I think there's a possiblity Carney will do to Smith what he did to Pollievre. Listen and act. Which was one of the reasons for Pollievre's downfall. I do believe Trudeau's disdain for the west, Alberta in particular, was real. I also believe that's not the case with Carney. It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds.

It would be really great if Alberta was a willing participant and doesn't just throw up barriers constantly. I'm not sure that Trudeau has disdain for Alberta per se, but more likely disdain for Alberta politicians who have been nothing but a giant pain in the ass to deal with. Nothing is ever good enough for Alberta.

[The Fisher Account]

You can't placate someone who believes that their sole reason for being in office is to oppose you.

[opendoor]

Can't say they don't deserve it, but what a fumble by the Conservatives. Literally all they had to do was be relatively normal, and they'd have probably easily won a majority. But the party leadership just can't help themselves and had to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

You'd think a cursory look at favorability ratings would have made them dial back on pushing Poilievre so hard as the face of the party (even at peak popularity, he was never better than -15 or so in the polls I've seen), but instead they doubled down. Basically 1/3rd of their platform document was pictures of him (the Liberals' platform at a single picture of Carney on the cover). Not that the average person reads platforms, but that's just an example of their mindset.

I guess they assumed as long as they got 35-40% of the vote they'd win no matter what, but they truly underestimated how unlikeable he is to the majority of the population. That's why the NDP and Bloc votes shifted Liberal and why he lost his own seat.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

In that way (though it may have had something to do with his pension). But there's no doubt that the way the election was going, the NDP involvement made a few seats go Conservative due to a vote split and also cost the Liberals seats that the NDP won.

Singh doesn't care about the pension and he has no need for the money. That whole line of thinking is just a Conservative attack, which is hilarious because PP got his pension 15 years ago.

Rick Mercer: Pierre Poilievre's Pension

[Manhattanboy]

Man that’s what I was calling for all along from the CONS - just be normal!

[woob]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I guess they assumed as long as they got 35-40% of the vote they'd win no matter what, but they truly underestimated how unlikeable he is to the majority of the population. That's why the NDP and Bloc votes shifted Liberal and why he lost his own seat.

And yet he made headway in many Ontario ridings, ousting the NDP in some of them. 13 of 17 last I heard.

I still think he needs to go.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Can't say they don't deserve it, but what a fumble by the Conservatives. Literally all they had to do was be relatively normal, and they'd have probably easily won a majority. But the party leadership just can't help themselves and had to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

You'd think a cursory look at favorability ratings would have made them dial back on pushing Poilievre so hard as the face of the party (even at peak popularity, he was never better than -15 or so in the polls I've seen), but instead they doubled down. Basically 1/3rd of their platform document was pictures of him (the Liberals' platform at a single picture of Carney on the cover). Not that the average person reads platforms, but that's just an example of their mindset.

I guess they assumed as long as they got 35-40% of the vote they'd win no matter what, but they truly underestimated how unlikeable he is to the majority of the population. That's why the NDP and Bloc votes shifted Liberal and why he lost his own seat.

They ain't Conservatives, the Conservatives would have won with ease and people would be comparing their leader to Mulrooney this morning, Reform lost as Reform always do because they are at their heart nutters

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Can't say they don't deserve it, but what a fumble by the Conservatives. Literally all they had to do was be relatively normal, and they'd have probably easily won a majority. But the party leadership just can't help themselves and had to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

You'd think a cursory look at favorability ratings would have made them dial back on pushing Poilievre so hard as the face of the party (even at peak popularity, he was never better than -15 or so in the polls I've seen), but instead they doubled down. Basically 1/3rd of their platform document was pictures of him (the Liberals' platform at a single picture of Carney on the cover). Not that the average person reads platforms, but that's just an example of their mindset.

I guess they assumed as long as they got 35-40% of the vote they'd win no matter what, but they truly underestimated how unlikeable he is to the majority of the population. That's why the NDP and Bloc votes shifted Liberal and why he lost his own seat.

Jenni Byrne probably wears a lot of that.

But Byrne will fight until the end. Everyone I spoke to for this story—colleagues, acquaintances and observers—characterized her as a political operator who has consistently and defiantly stuck to her principles, even when they’ve thrust her into conflict with allies or landed her on the wrong side of public sentiment. Friends and enemies alike describe her as focused, ruthless, tactically brilliant, detail-oriented, loyal to a point and merciless beyond that point, and perhaps the best practitioner of grievance politics in Canadian history. Her reputation is fearsome; some people were afraid to talk or be quoted. One figure in the Conservative Party said, “I fear attribution because I fear retribution.”

If Poilievre becomes prime minister, Byrne could easily be appointed his chief of staff, and she will certainly be one of the most powerful people in Canada. If he loses, the party will turn on her, just as it did before—perhaps this time forever.

https://macleans.ca/longforms/jenni-byrnes-big-gamble/

Not the type who can pivot. That she was trying to get her old romantic partner re-elected probably didn't help in guiding her to change tactics, because the ones she selected were honed over decades. There was nothing to pivot to in her head.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Can't say they don't deserve it, but what a fumble by the Conservatives. Literally all they had to do was be relatively normal, and they'd have probably easily won a majority. But the party leadership just can't help themselves and had to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

You'd think a cursory look at favorability ratings would have made them dial back on pushing Poilievre so hard as the face of the party (even at peak popularity, he was never better than -15 or so in the polls I've seen), but instead they doubled down. Basically 1/3rd of their platform document was pictures of him (the Liberals' platform at a single picture of Carney on the cover). Not that the average person reads platforms, but that's just an example of their mindset.

I guess they assumed as long as they got 35-40% of the vote they'd win no matter what, but they truly underestimated how unlikeable he is to the majority of the population. That's why the NDP and Bloc votes shifted Liberal and why he lost his own seat.

Poilievre had his ex as the campaign manager who is a devoted Maple MAGA supporter. Their disaster of a campaign was only bested by Singh's complete disappearance and claiming this is what he wanted all along...

https://nationalpost.com/news/politi...ager-doug-ford

Kory Teneycke, who was Ford’s campaign manager during his triumphant February election campaign, has been the sharpest and most public critic, saying last month that the Conservatives will be “obliterated” if the party doesn’t shift its message. And, last week, Teneycke said Poilievre’s campaign has committed “malpractice” by losing its huge polling lead over the Liberals.

On Friday, Poilievre dismissed the criticisms as coming from “Liberals and lobbyists” who are keen for him to pivot away from affordability issues.

On Monday, Ford backed his campaign manager.

Article content
“As for Kory, I’ve said right from Day One, he’s tough as nails but he’s the best campaign manager in the country. And to be very frank, if Kory was running that campaign I don’t think Mr. Poilievre would be in the position he’s in right now,” said Ford.

It's like he wanted to lose.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by woob

And yet he made headway in many Ontario ridings, ousting the NDP in some of them. 13 of 17 last I heard.

I still think he needs to go.

Sure, they did make some progress. But within the context of the situation, it was a massive failure.

In the last year and half, virtually every single national election in developed nations has resulted in the incumbent party losing vote share, often significantly. There has been a massive anti-incumbent wave worldwide since 2022, so simply by default, the Conservatives should have had a pretty easy path to victory. Instead, the Liberals gained 11 points overall and are currently +3.3 points compared to the Conservatives relative to 2021.

People chalk it up to Trump, but the only reason Trump could be weaponized against the Conservatives is because they made the fatal error of cozying up to his brand of conservatism. Conservative Premiers in Canada had no issues winning reelection in the same climate.

So sure, they picked up some seats and some votes which I guess can be considered progress. But a monkey running could have probably produced a better result. So relative to the expectations and within the current context, it was a failure, punctuated by their leader not even winning his own seat that he has held for 2 decades.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Jenni Byrne probably wears a lot of that.


https://macleans.ca/longforms/jenni-byrnes-big-gamble/

Not the type who can pivot. That she was trying to get her old romantic partner re-elected probably didn't help in guiding her to change tactics, because the ones she selected were honed over decades. There was nothing to pivot to in her head.

They also made the classic mistake of misreading Trudeau unpopularity as Conservative popularity, which parties full of extremists always do regardless of left or right leanings, they always think there is a vast 'silent majority' of racist anti abortionists or militant socialists

[rubecube]

I've said before that Singh was past his expiration date, but how are CPC voters not seeing the collapse of the NDP towards the Liberals as anything but a wholesale rejection of PP?

He is that unpalatable that NDP and Green voters would rather have Carney than him.

The argument that he got the best results a CPC candidate has had in a generation also kind of falls flat when you consider the surrounding circumstances. People were clamoring for a change and they CPC still topped out at 41% of the vote.

That means that nearly 60% of voters still want nothing to do with the either the party or PP. Their strategy seems to solely be hoping the Liberals fail hard enough to make people want to vote for them, rather than putting forward policies that make people want to vote for them.

[madmike]

Have to laugh about Conservative MP Jivani accusing Doug Ford of sabotaging the Cons’ campaign. PP treated Ford like a turd for years. And then suddenly when PP needs help in Ontario he comes begging. Why would Ford even think of helping him?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by rubecube

He is that unpalatable that NDP and Green voters would rather have Carney than him.

Is this surprising though? They're far-left voters, of course they're going to prefer the center-left leader over the guy to his political right. I think you could have said the same thing about Scheer and even O'Toole.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

Don't be an A$$hole there are 2 side to each party and you can't say with any honesty extreme left socialist views aren't a part of the Liberal agenda especially if they end up having to align with NDP.

As a socialist, I'd be very excited to hear which socialist views are part of Carney's agenda.

Do you mind elaborating?

[Coach]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

They also made the classic mistake of misreading Trudeau unpopularity as Conservative popularity, which parties full of extremists always do regardless of left or right leanings, they always think there is a vast 'silent majority' of racist anti abortionists or militant socialists

This is it in the head for sure. I definitely could have been convinced to vote Conservatives, and I fully acknowledge the fact that we are not ready for the US threat already because of inaction towards growth largely under the Liberal government. I also don't really think that "governor of Bank of Canada through the financial crisis, and governor of Bank of England through Brexit" are really the feathers in the cap that they seem. Like, those are famously bad things. It's like "he was good at steering that rudderless ship for those moments that it was crashing".

But they mistook American ignorance and equated it to Canadians forgetting the populace is on masse more educated and liberal in general. They have an unlikable leader whining like a prep-school kid. In a previous world, Carney would have been a prime Conservative candidate, one I would have happily voted for even a "liberal" person. They thought they had a lay-up because people hated Trudeau, but that's not enough for Canadians. You have to have some substance behind you too.

Originally Posted by rubecube

As a socialist, I'd be very excited to hear which socialist views are part of Carney's agenda.

Do you mind elaborating?

Actually he said EXTREME socialist. So yes, I'm also curious.

[Cappy]

PP said he's staying on as leader? Doesn't that make him an unelected leader of the party, ala CPC attacks on Carney?

I think the NDP need to pivot back to their pro-worker, pro-union roots. They cannot be losing that to the CPC. An NDP party should loathe the increase in immigration at the expense of wages.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Is this surprising though? They're far-left voters, of course they're going to prefer the center-left leader over the guy to his political right. I think you could have said the same thing about Scheer and even O'Toole.

The NDP and Greens combined to get 20% of the popular vote in 2019 and 2021. As it stands, they're going to get 7.5%. So yes, I think most leftist voters viewed PP as a bigger threat than the previous two leaders.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Man that’s what I was calling for all along from the CONS - just be normal!

Open your closed mind a little. Mark Carney would have ran for the Cons instead of the Libs, if the Cons didn't turn into the effing Reform Party.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by simmer2

You realize adding more debt makes the debt servicing more expensive? And then as individuals we pay more in taxes to cover that debt?

Yes, I'm aware of this. The problem, as posters like Cliff have pointed out, is that Canadians don't want to foot the bill for the services we use. Our tax rates should be higher in order to keep our deficits lower. Many EU countries are able to pull this off because they don't have a bunch of lunatics who froth at the mouth anytime the subject of taxation is brought up.

But don't worry, the Liberals are also really efficient at spending our tax dollars. Actually, all governments are very inefficient with how our tax dollars get spent and not just the Libs. They just happen to be extra good at it. 10 Billion in Consultants? Sure. Good idea. Government run affordability housing infrastructure program? What could go wrong? They did such a great job running Trans-Mountain (sadly no private group was going to do it because of all the insane regulatory hurdles now in place to get a development done).

So are you one of those people that thinks privatization is a good thing? Let's just leave our services up to our very benevolent corporate daddies?