WCR1: Edmonton Oilers (P3) vs Los Angeles Kings (P2) - Oilers win 4-2

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

The funny part to me is how he skates hard to get the puck after it already went in the net.

It reminds me of whatever player it was last year who gave the puck away then tried to skate off fast enough to not be on the ice for the minus.

Seriously though, does Bouchard have a vision impairment? The way he plays and the mistakes he makes, he seems like his is extremely farsighted.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Everything inside the offensive zone is counted. Not a few things.

An outside shot is low danger (a corsi event that doesn't register as a scoring chance or high danger), and then shot attempts inside the home plate as a scoring chance, ... same chance elevates to a high danger if it comes on a tip, rebound or direct pass.

They're all counted.

Over the course of time each type of shot is graded by chance of going in and then builds expected goals.

So in a game a player that is on the ice when the opposition is able to shoot more from in close, and on dangerous measures (tips, rebounds, wide open passes) then his xGA goes up and it generally matches the eye test.

What shouldn't be done is focusing on xGF% in an individual game because players are deployed differently.

If Kevin Rooney has the highest xGA60 on the team in a game he has a problem because his job is to make sure nothing bad happens. But he may generate little offensively (not his job), and be 1st in xGA60 but still at the bottom in xGF% because he doesn't generate much.

I'm all for the evaluation to provide more shades of gray (more disparity in events so a tighter expected goals answer), but for now it's the best way of assessing a player as eye test is often correct, but almost always subjective.

No, all events are not counted. For example, you win a board battle and get possession and try to pass to a team-mate - great play, but the pass bounces over their stick or is deflected, resulting in no shot and no stat. MOST events generate no points for xGF/A.

And again, it has no measure for time and space. You have not addressed that in any way. And you can't because it is a fact.

The last argument is always "it's the best we've got". Yes, it is. But that doesn't make it good, or useful. What it does though, is make it regularly referenced, and accepted as useful, simply by existing.

But for small sample sizes - where it is used most often, unfortunately - it is highly misleading and rarely of much value.

[Wastedyouth]

Rhett evaluating Bouchard and Nurse playing "Defense" is the highlight of my day.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I was confused, it seemed like you were saying his offence dried up. But I guess you are saying he's like a cold blooded killer.

I'm old so I doubletake at a lot of meaning changes. When did "selling out" start to mean putting your body on the line for a block, instead of betraying someone?

I'm in the same boat, but I just try to roll with it. I'm constantly hearing new colloquialisms that make my head spin.

[Dion]

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I'm in the same boat, but I just try to roll with it. I'm constantly hearing new colloquialisms that make my head spin.

Just wait till you guys hear what the word "goon" or "gooning" means nowadays

[CalgaryFan1988]

It always amazes me how the Oilers can make me hate them a little more every season. If you look up the word entitled it should be an Oilers logo.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I can only surmise that his wife likes the look of frizzled out hair and leather skin. I hope that guy gets himself checked out frequently at skin cancer clinics as it looks like he lives under a UV lamp.

TBF, he's the most tolerable of their broadcasting team. He mentions McDavid in every player interview of course, and his jokes are the worst, but he seems to do a fair bit of charity work.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

No, all events are not counted. For example, you win a board battle and get possession and try to pass to a team-mate - great play, but the pass bounces over their stick or is deflected, resulting in no shot and no stat. MOST events generate no points for xGF/A.

And again, it has no measure for time and space. You have not addressed that in any way. And you can't because it is a fact.

The last argument is always "it's the best we've got". Yes, it is. But that doesn't make it good, or useful. What it does though, is make it regularly referenced, and accepted as useful, simply by existing.

But for small sample sizes - where it is used most often, unfortunately - it is highly misleading and rarely of much value.

Yeah I meant all shot attempts are counted.

I'd say it is useful in that it's the best tool we have and often matches the eye test really well.

I've never heard an argument for why a measure that counts bad and good things would ever be useless or irrelevant in determining if a player had a good game.

If you spend more time in your own zone there will be more shot attempts against. If, while you are on the ice, more of those shots are dangerous I'd say you had a rough game if these occurrences are less by average over the season.

I'll say it again ... I'm not married to this as a final solution, and look forward to better definition of chances going forward, but it beats every other measure available including the eye test that is subjective.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Rollin22x

The Raz death stare but Kempe is aimed at the Oiler players. "I dare you too look me in the eyes!"

This is what I like, the Kings are rolling their lines and they are focused.

"Theres a job to be done."

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

It always amazes me how the Oilers can make me hate them a little more every season. If you look up the word entitled it should be an Oilers logo.

The weird part? I LOVE to hate them.

Every time the Kings score, it feels like the Flames scored a playoff goal.

[Saqe]

LA's road record is very pedestrian, that's a big worry for me. If they can find a way to win one road game that would be heck of an insurance.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

The weird part? I LOVE to hate them.

Every time the Kings score, it feels like the Flames scored a playoff goal.

A love hating them relationship.

[MissTeeks]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1915805330338124045

Sorry Skinner.

[united]

Originally Posted by Bingo

An outside shot is low danger (a corsi event that doesn't register as a scoring chance or high danger), and then shot attempts inside the home plate as a scoring chance, ... same chance elevates to a high danger if it comes on a tip, rebound or direct pass.

Passing data is only incorporated by private data providers, such as SportsLogIQ. Unless you are paying tens of thousands of dollars for access, xG is not including passing information.

Originally Posted by Bingo

They're all counted.

No, they aren't. Corsi includes blocked shots whereas no xG model includes blocked shots because the NHL records blocked shots where the block is made, not where the shot is taken. Do you mean Fenwick?

Originally Posted by Bingo

Over the course of time each type of shot is graded by chance of going in and then builds expected goals.

Important nuance is publicly available xG assumes league average shooter by position and league average goaltender. For instance this is why Ovechkin has outperformed xG in 18 of 20 seasons. I suspect, anyway. Could be a hot streak.

Originally Posted by Bingo

So in a game a player that is on the ice when the opposition is able to shoot more from in close, and on dangerous measures (tips, rebounds, wide open passes) then his xGA goes up and it generally matches the eye test.

Passing data is not publicly available.

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah I meant all shot attempts are counted.

Not all shot attempts are counted. Blocked shots are not counted. As about 30% of shot attempts are blocked, xG excludes ~30% of data in a given game hence should never be used on a single-game basis. This is why Corsi is more positively correlated to goal differential in small samples but xG surpasses Corsi in larger samples (20 games or so).

Originally Posted by Bingo

I've never heard an argument for why a measure that counts bad and good things would ever be useless or irrelevant in determining if a player had a good game.

Because the sample is too small to be representative as 30% of shot attempts are disregarded in xG. Corsi performs better in small samples, though all measures by nature perform poorly in single-game analysis.

I love stats, obviously, and the fact they are publicly available and free has been such a huge development for hockey. But, unfortunately, a small downside is the ease of misapplication when the numbers are copy-pasted rather than truly understood.

[Erick Estrada]

Looks like Picard is starting game three. Honestly I don't think he's much of an upgrade over Skinner.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Looks like Picard is starting game three. Honestly I don't think he's much of an upgrade over Skinner.

Its just a little too soon for me. Yeah they're up 2-0 but the Oilers havent lost at home yet, if the Kings take game 3 or 4? Okay.

That being said however....

Foot. Firmly. On. Gas.

[direwolf]

Kings better be ready to play tonight. If they can weather the storm in the first 5 minutes and just stick to playing their usual game, they'll be fine. Just don't get sucked into playing loosey goosey pond hockey, because that favours the Oilers.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Kings better be ready to play tonight. If they can weather the storm in the first 5 minutes and just stick to playing their usual game, they'll be fine. Just don't get sucked into playing loosey goosey pond hockey, because that favours the Oilers.

They have to run up a lead because the Oilers will get calls late in the game if it's close.

[Mass_nerder]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Looks like Picard is starting game three. Honestly I don't think he's much of an upgrade over Skinner.

Skinner looks like he really gets down on himself when he lets in a bad goal, so maybe Picard is an upgrade mentally?
They don't really have any other moves available to them that could potentially have a bigger impact.