Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[BigThief]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Someone talk me out of making a massive financial mistake. It seems very obvious to me that the Liberals will win comfortably. Right now they are about -283 (bet 3 to win 1) on the online gambling sites. I have quite a bit of money on them to win the most seats already, but I'm wondering why the odds aren't bet 10 to win 1? Does anyone see this being even close to being close in terms of seats won?

No, who cares lol

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Someone talk me out of making a massive financial mistake. It seems very obvious to me that the Liberals will win comfortably. Right now they are about -283 (bet 3 to win 1) on the online gambling sites. I have quite a bit of money on them to win the most seats already, but I'm wondering why the odds aren't bet 10 to win 1? Does anyone see this being even close to being close in terms of seats won?

I bet about $150 for Carney to win on Polymarket before he shot up, so I should get about $275 back for a winning bet. Polymarket accurately called the U.S. election, but I can’t explain why the odds are what they are on whichever site you’re viewing.

[MegaErtz]

Pinnacle have them at -283 to win the most seats. I got them at -219 a month ago. It just seems hard to see a path to the most seats for the Conservatives at this point, so my concern is more about why the Liberals aren't favoured by much more.

[puffnstuff]

Because, hopefully, theres no billionaires wth their thumbs on the scale

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Someone talk me out of making a massive financial mistake. It seems very obvious to me that the Liberals will win comfortably. Right now they are about -283 (bet 3 to win 1) on the online gambling sites. I have quite a bit of money on them to win the most seats already, but I'm wondering why the odds aren't bet 10 to win 1? Does anyone see this being even close to being close in terms of seats won?

Do you believe a random Monte Carlo simulation based on federal polling data weighted by demographics at the rising level is the correct way to model current polling?

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

If so 10 : 1 would be correct…..

But I think there are scenarios where a region could move independently from the federal level. That likelyhood is t really considered in the 338 models. 338 is also an of an election was held today. The election is not being held today. 75% of it will be held a week from now. So the model doesn’t consider the likelihood of something chnaging.

I think the better way to bet elections is to bet on trends on places like polymarket. You don’t have to be right on the outcome. You just need to be right on the public’s perception of the outcome.

Polymarket is only 75/25 right now. Personally I think that is close to accurate.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Pinnacle have them at -283 to win the most seats. I got them at -219 a month ago. It just seems hard to see a path to the most seats for the Conservatives at this point, so my concern is more about why the Liberals aren't favoured by much more.

The CPC vote has been consistently mid-high 30s, down a bit from the low forties pre-Trump/Carney, but would normally give them government or close to it. I believe the CPC vote is pretty solid. The Liberals have been consistently low-mid 40s since Trump/Carney but that includes a lot of support bled from the NDP and BQ which I don't think is as solid. It's quite possible that the CPC will over-perform and LPC will underperform on election day. Most seats? Still hard to imagine that going to CPC.

I'm interested to see Mainstreet's 2 most recent polls on 338 have CPC leading. Outliers at this point.

Edit: I don't have access to the full poll details, but they show Poilievre having slightly higher favourable and lower unfavourables than Carney. It doesn't pass the smell test to me.

[Mathgod]

Looks like the race is tightening. And there's still a week to go. I'd say the polymarket odds of 74/26 are correct.

[TorqueDog]

Calgary Centre has tightened, changing from an LPC-leaning toss-up to a CPC-leaning toss-up.

[Mathgod]

NDP/Green voters annoyingly splitting the vote.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Slava

This guy on Twitter used ChatGPT to put together the costs for the CPC and says it’s about $60-70bn per year for the deficit. That’s with an optimistic view of $2-3bn in consulting savings and not including the roughly $19bn in defence spending to get to 2% GDP. Obviously this could be inaccurate.

Thing is, the CPC was practically begging for an election for two years and hasn’t put together a costed platform? Yet somehow they want to form government? Pretty poor showing.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1914024700683964521

Kory Tenycke suggested maybe they should not release one. With all their talk of balancing the budget, the only way they can come close with their promises would be massive cuts to social programs. So it might be better not to put that out there.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

NDP/Green voters annoyingly splitting the vote.

A principled idiot is still an idiot. [shrug]

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Kory Tenycke suggested maybe they should not release one. With all their talk of balancing the budget, the only way they can come close with their promises would be massive cuts to social programs. So it might be better not to put that out there.

so the Smith strategy of ignoring what you plan to do until in power? Great.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

Calgary Centre has tightened, changing from an LPC-leaning toss-up to a CPC-leaning toss-up.

Originally Posted by Mathgod

NDP/Green voters annoyingly splitting the vote.

McLean won Calgary-Centre handily the past two elections, beyond the vote split. Even the idea it’s just a toss-up seems far fetched.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Looks like the race is tightening. And there's still a week to go. I'd say the polymarket odds of 74/26 are correct.

I don't know if that's a very robust model though, as the tightening trend appears to be entirely due to a single pollster (Mainstreet). The trendline is based on a 30-poll average, but because Mainstreet releases new polls every day, they make up over 1/4 of the latest sample. Maybe they're picking up on a trend that other pollsters aren't (similar to when EKOS showed heavy movement towards the Liberals before anyone else), but so far at least the non-Mainstreet pollsters aren't showing a tightening race.

And it's also worth remembering that the popular vote doesn't directly equate to seats or who the PM is (which is what betting markets generally cover). Even Mainstreet's recent poll showing the Conservatives up by 4.1 points (a 9 point swing from 338's average) still has the Liberals winning the most seats.

[WideReceiver]

Anyone else a little nervous that Poilievre might make this a race he could win? I think Carney wins but I’m anxious. Maybe the skullduggery that happened in the States could happen here?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by WideReceiver

Anyone else a little nervous that Poilievre might make this a race he could win? I think Carney wins but I’m anxious. Maybe the skullduggery that happened in the States could happen here?

What skullduggery happened in the states?

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Roughneck

McLean won Calgary-Centre handily the past two elections, beyond the vote split. Even the idea it’s just a toss-up seems far fetched.

Yeah, but this is the first time that the vote split has become less pronounced, which is why I was hopeful it might flip this time around. They were a lot closer and LPC even showed an advantage on 338 just a week ago.

Saddest part is that people like Greg McLean are precisely the sort of Conservatives that we should wish there were *more of* in the CPC instead of these far-right kooks that are permeating the party membership.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by WideReceiver

Anyone else a little nervous that Poilievre might make this a race he could win? I think Carney wins but I’m anxious. Maybe the skullduggery that happened in the States could happen here?

There’s no skullduggery at work. The Liberal party’s rise from the ashes was mainly down to Trump’s threats and antagonism to Canada. But Trump hasn’t said anything about Canada for several weeks now, so the threat from the U.S. is receding from the electorate’s consciousness.

Two weeks is a long time in the news cycle, which is why two weeks is a long time in politics. A lot can change in that timeframe.

[madmike]

Originally Posted by WideReceiver

Anyone else a little nervous that Poilievre might make this a race he could win? I think Carney wins but I’m anxious. Maybe the skullduggery that happened in the States could happen here?

I’ve always thought he had a shot at a minority gov. I think he still does. It wouldn’t be the worst-case scenario. He wouldn’t be able to pass any crazy legislation. And he’d have to prove he can govern competently.

I don’t think there’s any chance the Cons get a majority now.

[WideReceiver]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

What skullduggery happened in the states?

I’m no conspiracy theorist but that election was stolen. I don’t know how but no way Trump won that legitimately.