Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Qwerty

Rookie numbers, this is CalgaryPuck! Gotta pump up those numbers. I expect at least $20mm

I like your thinking!

[Cappy]

I think there is more to this market than just tariff uncertainty. The US has been seeing a growing gap in inequality and the lower classes are stretched thin. The longer this continues without a fix (and Trump ain't fixing that) then the bigger the issue becomes.

Coupled with the massive increases in stock market caused by retailer investors, sooner or later a lot of that money is going to get pulled out. The issue is so many of those investors bought ETF's (as did almost all of us i am sure).

ETF funds don't hold cash. When a customer withdraws their money from ETFs they have to sell those shares (worse if its a derivative ETF) which can cause a huge swing in stock prices.

I can see a huge swing sometime this year, ala 2008. Am i prepared to convert all my investments into cash? no. But Im currently at about 35% cash

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Cappy

I think there is more to this market than just tariff uncertainty. The US has been seeing a growing gap in inequality and the lower classes are stretched thin. The longer this continues without a fix (and Trump ain't fixing that) then the bigger the issue becomes.

Coupled with the massive increases in stock market caused by retailer investors, sooner or later a lot of that money is going to get pulled out. The issue is so many of those investors bought ETF's (as did almost all of us i am sure).

ETF funds don't hold cash. When a customer withdraws their money from ETFs they have to sell those shares (worse if its a derivative ETF) which can cause a huge swing in stock prices.

I can see a huge swing sometime this year, ala 2008. Am i prepared to convert all my investments into cash? no. But Im currently at about 35% cash

Just on the ETF point - Not entirely true. Most ETFs hold a small amount of cash for liquidity and operational purposes. However, they are typically fully invested in their underlying assets to track their benchmark index effectively. When an investor sells an ETF on the stock exchange, they are selling it to another market participant, just like a regular stock. This doesn’t directly impact the ETF’s holdings. The large ETFs are relatively cushioned against this and don't often have to rely on the market makers to redeem issued ETF shares.

[Table 5]

I know we're all focused on US markets, but there are some interesting things happing with global equities right now. While the SPX has been faltering, a large amount of international markets have been ripping...Europe especially.

A couple of days old, but here's a comparison of Country ETF performance:

Spoiler!

One interesting fact I heard was that about 40% of US equity is owned by foreign investors (which translates to meaning that about 28% of global market cap is foreigners owning US stuff). We're talking trillions.

And yet, it seems like everything in the news suggested that countries are, or will be, repatriating some of these funds for one reason or another. Europe talking about rearmament, China divesting from US treasuries, Tariff threats on Canada, Europe, China, Japan etc...

That 40% foreign ownership won't go to zero...but if it goes to even 30%, that's still an assload of money going into markets that have been extremely underfunded and undervalued for years. International equities have underperformed for what seems like forever, but the world seems to be changing, so maybe their prospects are too. I guess we'll see.

[Shazam]

Man y'all must just have RRSP and TFSA accounts. Cap gains matter.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Man y'all must just have RRSP and TFSA accounts. Cap gains matter.

Do you understand how most Canadians live?



Oh, ya, I've maxed my RRSP, TFSA, bought three houses and have all these capital gains to worry about now. Said 0.0001% of the population.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Do you understand how most Canadians live?



Oh, ya, I've maxed my RRSP, TFSA, bought three houses and have all these capital gains to worry about now. Said 0.0001% of the population.

Bow to your lord Shazam.

[Table 5]

I swear some people would rather watch all their gains disappear than pay some tax. Maybe I'm not dealing in size like many here, but I have no problem locking in a win, paying the tax, and moving on to the next thing...there's always a next thing.

That and at least for me, there's always some hilariously bad performer to offset the gains by year end anyway.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I know we're all focused on US markets, but there are some interesting things happing with global equities right now. While the SPX has been faltering, a large amount of international markets have been ripping...Europe especially.

A couple of days old, but here's a comparison of Country ETF performance:

Spoiler!

One interesting fact I heard was that about 40% of US equity is owned by foreign investors (which translates to meaning that about 28% of global market cap is foreigners owning US stuff). We're talking trillions.

And yet, it seems like everything in the news suggested that countries are, or will be, repatriating some of these funds for one reason or another. Europe talking about rearmament, China divesting from US treasuries, Tariff threats on Canada, Europe, China, Japan etc...

That 40% foreign ownership won't go to zero...but if it goes to even 30%, that's still an assload of money going into markets that have been extremely underfunded and undervalued for years. International equities have underperformed for what seems like forever, but the world seems to be changing, so maybe their prospects are too. I guess we'll see.

This has been helpful for sure. I have about 20% holdings in foreign markets, which have certainly cushioned US losses.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I swear some people would rather watch all their gains disappear than pay some tax. Maybe I'm not dealing in size like many here, but I have no problem locking in a win, paying the tax, and moving on to the next thing...there's always a next thing.

That and at least for me, there's always some hilariously bad performer to offset the gains by year end anyway.

I have some cash and am looking for the next thing.

I was thinking about European defense stocks given the political climate, but Rheinmetall (for example) is already at its all-time peak. Thinking maybe Saab and Airbus.

Any other ideas or industries?

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Any other ideas or industries?

Well, Im just some random Joe, so don't take any of this as advice... but the things I'm holding on that front are below. Nothing too spicy...

EZU - General Eurozone ETF. Nothing sexy, but gives you good exposure to the larger caps.
GVAL - Global Value ETF. Pretty bombed out compared to SPX, but showing signs of life https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/..._1450x1189.png
DVYE - Emerging Market ETF. Also looks to be bottoming long term. Pays a great dividend while waiting.
KWEB/FXI - China ETF. Been on fire the last year due to stimulus...probably due for a pullback though.
EWZ - Brazil - Usually a complete basket case, but hoping eventually they will have their own Argentina/Milei type turnaround. In the meantime, pays a nice dividend.

I'm not dumping half my retirement into these things or anything, and I remain skeptical about Europe and Brazil, but sometimes the biggest gains are when something goes from truly awful to merely really bad (ie. look at Argentina).

[Shazam]

VEE and VIU in whatever proportion you see fit.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Cappy

I think there is more to this market than just tariff uncertainty. The US has been seeing a growing gap in inequality and the lower classes are stretched thin. The longer this continues without a fix (and Trump ain't fixing that) then the bigger the issue becomes.

Coupled with the massive increases in stock market caused by retailer investors, sooner or later a lot of that money is going to get pulled out. The issue is so many of those investors bought ETF's (as did almost all of us i am sure).

ETF funds don't hold cash. When a customer withdraws their money from ETFs they have to sell those shares (worse if its a derivative ETF) which can cause a huge swing in stock prices.

I can see a huge swing sometime this year, ala 2008. Am i prepared to convert all my investments into cash? no. But Im currently at about 35% cash

HXS performed exactly the same as VFV during 2020, if you're wondering how a swap based ETF would fare during a black swan event.

[Nancy]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I have some cash and am looking for the next thing.

I was thinking about European defense stocks given the political climate, but Rheinmetall (for example) is already at its all-time peak. Thinking maybe Saab and Airbus.

Any other ideas or industries?

It feels like the boat has already been missed on most of the other alternatives. Every alternative I've looked into has been massively run up in the past two months. (Like dividend and/or European stocks.) For curiosity, I just checked Saab... up 61% over the past 70 days!

Originally Posted by Shazam

HXS performed exactly the same as VFV during 2020, if you're wondering how a swap based ETF would fare during a black swan event.

I am not familiar with these swap ETFs. They look interesting, but the fees on these seem quite steep, like 0.9%. Do you really save enough on the taxes on your dividends to justify that, or am I missing something?

[Table 5]

In other news, gold hit $3000. Up 14% on the year.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Nancy

I am not familiar with these swap ETFs. They look interesting, but the fees on these seem quite steep, like 0.9%. Do you really save enough on the taxes on your dividends to justify that, or am I missing something?

You'd have to do the marth.

[GranteedEV]

]

I just want to point out that the issue with capital gains isn't consumer level investing, it's corporations being discouraged from creating jobs

[Shazam]

Wut.

[Table 5]

Sooo....how we doing fellas? The dip keeps dipping...

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Sooo....how we doing fellas? The dip keeps dipping...

These are the times where stupid people lose lots of money by panicking and selling.

Don't touch your investments. If anything, make your regular contributions.

It's been so long since a downtown in the market that people came to believe that things only go up.

Time in the market beats timing the market.