[PGT] Oilers 3 Flames 2 in OT

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

I think the toll of the first season workload and the overall grind has worn him out a bit. That’s definitely a learning experience for a rookie NHL goalie.

In my opinion, the team is also just not playing as good in front of him for the last 10 games. They are bleeding more high danger chances against in the last 10 and more chances against period.

Their expected goals is cratering with their expected goals against increasing.

And that's with the Dallas and Edmonton game skewing it to the positive.

They are not a good team, they have a good system which took a lot of advantage of a good goalie but a little PDO blip here is showing they do not have the horses to weather the storm.

i don't even think its too many games for Wolf. He has played more games in a season in the AHL under worse circumstances.

It's just that the team in front of him is no good and even a great goalie can only do so much.

It's Weegar and his partner playing at a NHL level and everyone else at replacement level. No goalie can succeed in that situation over a whole season. Look at Shesterkin. Did he suddenly become worn out? Or is the team in front of him trash at 5v5 (the answer is yes they are and no he didn't).

[Manhattanboy]

Two drive by comments:

- love Backlund for what he’s done for the team and the community but it’s time to move on. He’s a liability on the ice. I hope our next captain hates losing.

- Drycyle’s first game back. Had multiple scoring chances. Forget OT because 3-3 is stupid and silly but really how hard is it to plant a guy on him full time. He’s not even that fast, doesn’t even try to skate all that hard and is predictable in terms of positioning and where he wants the puck. I know not that easy but man he was alone a lot last night.

[Paulie Walnuts]

5-7-4 in the last 16 starts with Wolf. A .4375 points %. If we played at that pace we would be at 63 points at 72 games. Obviously he wouldn’t play all 72 games but you can still have a top goalie and finish in the bottom 5. All this talk that we won’t ever be able to draft high with him in net.

[topfiverecords]

You guys need to pace yourselves. There’s a few more years of this middling retool to bicker about.

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1906461422432985519

The fan did not die.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’s not insane, it’s just not based on reality. Relax.

It’s more likely that 12 additional goals let in would have no impact on their standing or how many points they have than it is that it would drop them 13 points. If you look at the actual scores of Wolf’s games you’ll see how absurd it sounds.

Those goals would come in games they would win even with an additional goal let in, games where they lost regardless, and then maybe a small handful of games where they would lose 1-2 points.

Realistically 12 additional goals let in drops us 3-6 points… maybe. It might not even change where we are in the standings.

Just look into this stuff and put some critical thought into it before you post. Will sound less silly.

All we know is less goals will have a negative effect on wins. How much is debatable and with such a small sample size we can't know where those goals would happen.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

If Vladar could return a second I think he would have been gone
I think dropping into the top 10 was a long shot even with a couple deadline moves unless they just stopped starting Wolf

I doubt that.

Heavily throughout the first half of the year they used Vladar to play against the top teams while sheltering Wolf. If they dumped Vladar, what would their game plan be? All in on the guy you have been sheltering? If Wolf plays Vegas, who gets to play Chicago?

Even on that East trip they went 50/50 and gave Vladar the top team in the league, Washington, and the defending Cup champs

Now they are giving Wolf some looks at good teams and he is looking human


Now to the people talking about the number of sub .900 games Wolf has had, it is pretty nit picky… 4 of his last 9 have been 3 goals on 29 shots or .897. An extra meaningless shot would put him past that threshold

He has had a couple of tough ones in there but Draisaitl is a pretty good shooter. He leads the league in goals by a good amount

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

All we know is less goals will have a negative effect on wins. How much is debatable and with such a small sample size we can't know where those goals would happen.

Which is part of the reason why saying “without Wolf they’d be bottom five” is such a bad take based on virtually nothing.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I doubt that.

Heavily throughout the first half of the year they used Vladar to play against the top teams while sheltering Wolf. If they dumped Vladar, what would their game plan be? All in on the guy you have been sheltering? If Wolf plays Vegas, who gets to play Chicago?

Even on that East trip they went 50/50 and gave Vladar the top team in the league, Washington, and the defending Cup champs

Now they are giving Wolf some looks at good teams and he is looking human


Now to the people talking about the number of sub .900 games Wolf has had, it is pretty nit picky… 4 of his last 9 have been 3 goals on 29 shots or .897. An extra meaningless shot would put him past that threshold

He has had a couple of tough ones in there but Draisaitl is a pretty good shooter. He leads the league in goals by a good amount

Ok, let's assume he was at .900 instead of .897 for those games. Doesn't substantively take away from the point being made. Wolf's level of play has dropped noticeably over his past 7 starts. Some of that is quality of opponent, but some of that is, I think, the pressure of carrying the team starting to get to him. He's only 23.

[Paulie Walnuts]

I don’t think the pressure is getting to him at all. He’s facing better shooters and the team in front of him is not playing as well in their end.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Which is part of the reason why saying “without Wolf they’d be bottom five” is such a bad take based on virtually nothing.

They are 22nd in xGf% on the year and they score the 3rd fewest goals in the NHL. Predicting losing Wolf and his 12 GSAE having a significant impact and dropping them down to bottom 5 is not impossible as you suggest.

In fact, over the last 20 games the Flames XGf% is 5th worst in the NHL.

You can believe these analytics are "nothing" if you want to, but to suggest people who disagree with you are out of touch with reality is a bit excessive. Maybe you could start a thread titles "PepsiFree's guide to analytics and their permissable use on calgarypuck.com". Could save you some time running around being the thought police.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

They are 22nd in xGf% on the year and they score the 3rd fewest goals in the NHL. Predicting losing Wolf and his 12 GSAE having a significant impact and dropping them down to bottom 5 is not impossible as you suggest.

In fact, over the last 20 games the Flames XGf% is 5th worst in the NHL.

You can believe these analytics are "nothing" if you want to, but to suggest people who disagree with you are out of touch with reality is a bit excessive. Maybe you could start a thread called "PepsiFree's guide to analytics and their permissable use on calgarypuck.com". Could save you some time running around being the though police.

You're taking specific analytics and applying your own random end-result analysis. There are actual analytics that can be used and they highlight at most a 6 point drop without Wolf. WAR for example. They've been shared in another topic so no need to go through it all again here.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Groot

You're taking specific analytics and applying your own random end-result analysis. There are actual analytics that can be used and they highlight at most a 6 point drop without Wolf. WAR for example. They've been shared in another topic so no need to go through it all again here.

No I'm not. What I'm saying is after watching the games I think this is a bottom 5 team without Wolf. I then pointed to some analytics to say that's not an insane proposal that is divorced from reality.

I have not once said the analytics prove that without Wolf this team is guaranteed to be bottom 5. I said I think the Flames are bottom 5 without Wolf and as to support my opinion I said a team in the bottom 1/3 (and trending to the bottom 1/6) in xgf%, that scores the third fewest goals in the league, could possibly see an outsized impact of losing 12 goals.

You are the one saying based on WAR that at most the Flames would see a six point drop. Maybe that's the most likely drop, but to say there is no possibility of more than a 6 point drop just seems too extreme.

I've watched the games and seen Wolf make multiple 10 bell saves in the first to give the Flames time to get their poop together and come back to even the chances in the game and win.

Team analytics are hard enough to make sense of, and isolating one player out of that team and removing them and predicting that impact would be even harder. It's why people watch and have opinions. If WAR or whatever system was perfect we would never see bad hockey trades, as each players worth would be clear outside of any team related impacts.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

They are 22nd in xGf% on the year and they score the 3rd fewest goals in the NHL. Predicting losing Wolf and his 12 GSAE having a significant impact and dropping them down to bottom 5 is not impossible as you suggest.

In fact, over the last 20 games the Flames XGf% is 5th worst in the NHL.

You can believe these analytics are "nothing" if you want to, but to suggest people who disagree with you are out of touch with reality is a bit excessive. Maybe you could start a thread titles "PepsiFree's guide to analytics and their permissable use on calgarypuck.com". Could save you some time running around being the thought police.

It’s not me giving you permission, or an issue with you disagreeing with me, it’s just me using my brain and you… not? I guess?

It’s not that the analytics are “nothing,” it’s that you don’t know what they mean and don’t know how to apply them. Case in point: bringing up xGF to justify your bad bottom 5 take.

Just think about it for a second. If the Flames lose 6-1 instead of 3-1, that’s the GSAE dropping in action, and yet xGF has no relevance and it didn’t impact their record.

You’re just not actually thinking about what a realistic change looks like. Boston, with just three more goals, has let in THIRTY more goals. THIRTY. Their goal difference is -27 WORSE than the Flames (-51… wild)…. and they’re seventh.

Saying if we let in 12 more goals we’d be bottom five is just you not actually thinking about it at all. Which is fine, but don’t act like it’s anything but a you issue.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by the cobra

calgary's prospect pool ranks around the middle of the pack team wise right now, based on major publications. Big improvement but they have only one elite prospect.

The road to calagry becoming a contender is likely long, as they will get worse before they get better.

100%

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Flames had 8 prospects with an NHLe of over 30 this year.

Forgive my ignorance but what does that mean in terms of building a contender?

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's unlikely but not over.

The Blues are never going to lose again, so that's probably over.

But Wild just lost to the Devils at home, and now go play Devils, Rangers and Islanders on the road with all those teams in the middle of a playoff battle and then come back to play the Stars at home.

I don't think 3-5-0 is impossible for the Wild and that would put them at 93 points

Flames go 7-3-0 and it's 94 points.

Just beat the Avs and you go from there

That would be a very unlikely scenario but I'm cheering for it.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

You guys need to pace yourselves. There’s a few more years of this middling retool to bicker about.

Absolutely. It'll get way worse before it gets better, while many fans are thinking we're coming OUT of the rebuild, lol.

[sch19lks]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Forgive my ignorance but what does that mean in terms of building a contender?

I’m assuming that’s Bader, his model is junk. Based on points and nothing else. Bader is beyond a hack

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by sch19lks

I’m assuming that’s Bader, his model is junk. Based on points and nothing else. Bader is beyond a hack

But even if this guy's NHLe wasn't junk what does 30 point NHLe players do for us in terms of a league where stars mean everything in contending?