The Playoff Hunt. Flames Vs Wild Vs Blues

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The Kings are 10 points ahead of the Flames and would have the tie breaker. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Neither the Flames nor the Canucks are catching them.

Kings are also by far the NHL's best home team and have 8 of 11 at home. Better chance they run down Vegas for first than fall back. They're 100% in the playoffs.

I think with the Wild besting the Caps last night that might have been the equivalent of tossing Joe Pesci's beat to schaat body in the grave for the Flames. They needed to go Luke 3-7-1 to be threatened. Now it's just a matter of getting the dirt shoveled on them.

[Sylvanfan]

Right now the Flames are 1-8-1 collectively against the top 4 teams in the West. They still have at Colorado, and two at home vs Vegas. At best they might split the home games vs. Vegas and end up 2-10-1.

The narrative is that the Flames soil the sheets against bad teams. I'd look at this and say that it's an overmatched team that can't play with the big boys. They fight and play hard. But the horses are not there. Hopefully they see this as a long term flaw and don't stray trying to fix it quickly.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

lol no

WTF?

If they win out they'll have 101 points dude, they'd be guaranteed in at that point.

So, how does losing one game mean they are done?

[Bandwagon Surfer]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

So, how does losing one game mean they are done?

I see is as more the complete picture including other team's records, than a single game.

The Flames were in a position where to make the playoffs they needed to both win at a higher rate themselves, and for the competing teams to slow down. The Flames have been doing well, but the competition has not slowed down. The net result is that the Flame's playoff chances have been getting worse.

The point as the odds drop that you want to "stick a fork in them" is up to the person. Some will cling on until it is fully 0, while others will give up on them earlier. But it makes sense to me that dropping odds are resulting in more people giving up hope.

[SuperMatt18]

Yeah that game doesn't 100% kill them but the result combined with the OOT just makes it harder.

Based on current trend 94 points is probably the fewest the Flames could get to have a chance.

Oilers: 3-6-1 - 94 points
Wild: 3-6-0 - 94 points
Blues: 4-3-1 - 94 points
---------------------------------
Canucks: 7-3-0 - 94 points
Flames: 7-3-1 - 94 points
Utah: 9-0-1 - 94 points

It's not unheard of...but it's going to be very tough and really need to get something out of these next two games because ideally they needed 4/6 from the 3 games against Dallas, Edmonton, and Colorado. Really they need another 4 games winning streak here (@ Oilers, @ Avs, @ Utah, vs Ducks).

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

So, how does losing one game mean they are done?

Do you not know what "IMO" stands for?

IMO they aren't going to win enough games to get past any of the teams they are chasing.

In the last 10 games they've:

Gained 1 point on Edmonton, need to gain 7 points on them in 11 games
Gained 1 point on Minnesota, need to gain 7 points on them in 11 games
Lost 6 points to St. Louis, need to gain 5 points on them in 11 games

Hopefully they do something monumental, but odds are they are finito

[hwy19man]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah that game doesn't 100% kill them but the result combined with the OOT just makes it harder.

Based on current trend 94 points is probably the fewest the Flames could get to have a chance.

Kings: 2-8-1 - 94 points
Oilers: 3-6-1 - 94 points
Wild: 3-6-0 - 94 points
Blues: 4-3-1 - 94 points
---------------------------------
Canucks: 7-3-0 - 94 points
Flames: 7-3-1 - 94 points
Utah: 9-0-1 - 94 points

Added the Kings since they are only two points ahead of the Oilers.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Do you not know what "IMO" stands for?

IMO they aren't going to win enough games to get past any of the teams they are chasing.

In the last 10 games they've:

Gained 1 point on Edmonton, need to gain 7 points on them in 11 games
Gained 1 point on Minnesota, need to gain 7 points on them in 11 games
Lost 6 points to St. Louis, need to gain 5 points on them in 11 games

Hopefully they do something monumental, but odds are they are finito

Calgary plays a Edmonton team missing their 2 stars and the Blues play Colorado.

If it plays out well, we're right back to where we were before last night. Things can change that quickly. It's far from settled.

[Toonage]

I still think the Flames win tomorrow if they bring the dame game they played against Dallas but I'm also 99.999% sure Draisaitl is back tomorrow.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by Toonage

I still think the Flames win tomorrow if they bring the dame game they played against Dallas but I'm also 99.999% sure Draisaitl is back tomorrow.

Will they have to beat the refs as well? Or will the league continue to F the Flames?

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Will they have to beat the refs as well? Or will the league continue to F the Flames?

I mentioned that in another thread (or may have been this one, haven't looked) that we can probably expect some equally ####acular calls coming in the Oilers favour.

So yeah, probably have to beat the refs at least a few times. Especially if one of the wonder twins is back.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah that game doesn't 100% kill them but the result combined with the OOT just makes it harder.

Based on current trend 94 points is probably the fewest the Flames could get to have a chance.

Oilers: 3-6-1 - 94 points
Wild: 3-6-0 - 94 points
Blues: 4-3-1 - 94 points
---------------------------------
Canucks: 7-3-0 - 94 points
Flames: 7-3-1 - 94 points
Utah: 9-0-1 - 94 points

It's not unheard of...but it's going to be very tough and really need to get something out of these next two games because ideally they needed 4/6 from the 3 games against Dallas, Edmonton, and Colorado. Really they need another 4 games winning streak here (@ Oilers, @ Avs, @ Utah, vs Ducks).

Tankathon actually supports the chances that the Flames can get back into this thing. To steal from myself:

Tankathon

• The Flames have the 20th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-3-2)
• Canucks have the 4th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-4-1)
• Blues are 10th hardest... last update showed the leap from 32nd to 14th. (L10 = 8-1-1)
• UHC are 18th hardest (L10 = 4-4-2)
• Wild are 24th hardest (L10 = 5-4-1)

The Flames need to win out against the Ducks and Sharks, beat UHC, take out the Oilers and Wild. That would get them to 7 wins. Then, hopefully we get a resting Vegas and Kings to close out the season where they are secure in their playoff positions. Some combination of that would get us to 95 points, which feels hugely optimistic.

The Blues remaining games can hopefully play out like this:
@ Avs = Loss
vs Red Wings = Win
vs Penguins = Win
vs Avs = Loss
@ Jets = Loss
@ Oilers = Loss
@ Kraken = Win
vs UHC = Win

4-4-0 would leave them at 93 points.

Canucks remaining schedule:
@ CBJ = Win
@ Jets = Loss
vs Kraken = Win
vs Ducks = Win
vs VGK = Loss
@ Stars = Loss
@ Avs = Loss
vs Wild = Win
vs Sharks = Win
vs VGK = Win

The last 3 games of the season for the Canucks, they are getting all of the Wild, Sharks, and VGK where the team plays in Calgary the night before. Even the earlier VGK game the Canucks are getting them straight from Calgary. Pretty gross April scheduling advantage for the Canucks. Hopefully they get 6 or less wins out of that schedule and land at 92.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

The path there is shrinking, but...

[Jiggy_12]

Here is my Flames-centric optimistic prognosis...trying to look at this in a smaller window of time:

Looking at the next small-ish segment of the season for the Flames, Canucks, & Blues from now until April 5th.

Blues play: Avs x2, wings and Pens. I'm thinking a 2-2 record is likely
Canucks play: CBJ, Jets, Kraken and Ducks. 3-1 is likely
Flames play: Oilers, Avs, Utah, Ducks, Knights. lets be optimistic here and say we go 4-1 with a loss against the Avs

Blues would have 89 points and 4 games left
Flames would have 87 points and 6 games left
Canucks would have 86 points and 6 games left

The Blue and Canucks record in the next 5 doesn't seem too unrealistic (to me at least) so if the Flames can take 4 of 5, it's anyone's game.

We have to take care of business tomorrow

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Updated.

Removed Utah because they're 10 points back. Basically they have to win out to even have a shot. No chance.

Then add the Oilers and Kings, especially if both teams lose tonight.
The Wild are tied with the Oilers now at 87 points

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Tsawwassen

Then add the Oilers and Kings, especially if both teams lose tonight.
The Wild are tied with the Oilers now at 87 points

The Kings are way too far ahead. If they go 4-7 in their remaining 11 games (and considering they are both hot and the NHL's best home team, and 8 of those games are at home), Calgary would need to get to 98 points, going 9-1-1. And if Calagry can do that, they'll be in the playoffs anyway.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The Kings are way too far ahead. If they go 4-7 in their remaining 11 games (and considering they are both hot and the NHL's best home team, and 8 of those games are at home), Calgary would need to get to 98 points, going 9-1-1. And if Calagry can do that, they'll be in the playoffs anyway.

I know the chances are low that the Flames can catch them, but, with sports you never know until the possibility is mathematically impossible.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Tsawwassen

Then add the Oilers and Kings, especially if both teams lose tonight.
The Wild are tied with the Oilers now at 87 points

I would track the Kings too, not because I think we can catch them but because I would want to understand where they are at for that final game of the season.

If they are comfortably locked into the #2 spot in the division then they will likely be resting their stars for that final game in preparation for another playoff series against the Oilers.

However, if they are needing the win to secure home ice advantage then they will likely bring their A game against us.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I would track the Kings too, not because I think we can catch them but because I would want to understand where they are at for that final game of the season.

If they are comfortably locked into the #2 spot in the division then they will likely be resting their stars for that final game in preparation for another playoff series against the Oilers.

However, if they are needing the win to secure home ice advantage then they will likely bring their A game against us.

Again, the Oilers are not a shoe in yet. Everyone keeps banking they are a lock and I see them as a pretty big risk to miss. The Canucks blew it last night only getting a single point. I think that they have a realistic chance of catching the Oilers.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

Again, the Oilers are not a shoe in yet. Everyone keeps banking they are a lock and I see them as a pretty big risk to miss. The Canucks blew it last night only getting a single point. I think that they have a realistic chance of catching the Oilers.

Not a shoo-in for sure. But they need to be caught be either VAN or CGY to miss, and that remains a long shot at this point.

EDM: +15
CGY:+8
VAN: +8

A regulation win tonight would really change things though - get within 5 with 10 games to go, and there's at least a chance.