The Tariff Thread

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Azure

Hey, I'm well aware of this, and I also don't understand why Congress is allowing Trump to continue these tariffs when they're obviously no longer part of any national security issue.

But even with that I think we can see that nobody is going to stop him.

Nor is he going to honour USMCA.

But he's also reaching out for a reason. So there needs to be some kind of conclusion to this whole matter. Trudeau was usually able to get him to back off after a few days, so I guess we'll see if Carney has any success.

And how many times do you recommend we do this song and dance? We are on number 3 right now. Is 10 reasonable? or perhaps his full term - 48 times? At some point we are going to need to end this silliness and its going to be painful. But right now what's even worse is the uncertainty these tariffs are causing.

In the O&G industry alone there is billions and billions of capital on the sidelines due to the uncertainty of the impact of tariffs on the supply chain. Mega projects that were going to create tens of thousands of jobs are on hold because a 25% tariff running through the supply chain changes an ROI of 15 - 20% negative.

Looking at the auto industry there is no way the US is going to reshore their manufacturing by the time Trump's term is up. Its just not going to happen and thats just look at the capital component of the projects, not skill of labor and ramp up. What is far more likely to happen is the US consumer faced with a scarcity of vehicles produced in the US are going to have to bite the bullet and pay the 25% tariff on them. My point is demand won't go to 0.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Leondros

And how many times do you recommend we do this song and dance? We are on number 3 right now. Is 10 reasonable? or perhaps his full term - 48 times? At some point we are going to need to end this silliness and its going to be painful. But right now what's even worse is the uncertainty these tariffs are causing.

In the O&G industry alone there is billions and billions of capital on the sidelines due to the uncertainty of the impact of tariffs on the supply chain. Mega projects that were going to create tens of thousands of jobs are on hold because a 25% tariff running through the supply chain changes an ROI of 15 - 20% negative.

Looking at the auto industry there is no way the US is going to reshore their manufacturing by the time Trump's term is up. Its just not going to happen and thats just look at the capital component of the projects, not skill of labor and ramp up. What is far more likely to happen is the US consumer faced with a scarcity of vehicles produced in the US are going to have to bite the bullet and pay the 25% tariff on them. My point is demand won't go to 0.

The secondary issue is even if the US reshores their auto industry, a lot of parts & raw materials to make the cars are still going to come from Canada which adds cost regardless of if 75% of everything else is done in the US. The F-150 is a great example of this.

I think there is a reason Ford has toned down the rhetoric this time around. Last time it was 'I dare you to do it and I'll immediately tax your power', but now he's saying 'well I guess we will see.' Why? My guess is he sees a way out of this.

Everyone also needs to remember Trump was this unreasonable during his first administration as well, and the Trudeau government found a way to deal with him.

[Azure]

Liberal delusion. This 'all in Canada' manufacturing is going to sell where? Canada has a VERY limited market, plus we are competing against Asian manufacturers, and with time will have no choice but to allow BYD and others from China to sell here. So, how exactly is this going to work?

Oh right, typical dumb Liberal bull####.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1905050644341195127

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Azure

Liberal delusion. This 'all in Canada' manufacturing is going to sell where? Canada has a VERY limited market, plus we are competing against Asian manufacturers, and with time will have no choice but to allow BYD and others from China to sell here. So, how exactly is this going to work?

Oh right, typical dumb Liberal bull####.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1905050644341195127

If this were to happen it would probably be a good time to buy some Magna International stock. They would likely really benefit from that.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Azure

Liberal delusion. This 'all in Canada' manufacturing is going to sell where? Canada has a VERY limited market, plus we are competing against Asian manufacturers, and with time will have no choice but to allow BYD and others from China to sell here. So, how exactly is this going to work?

Oh right, typical dumb Liberal bull####.

Take a breath, guy.

Didn't Trump announce automotive sector tariffs yesterday? Or was that this morning...I can't even remember. Anyway, we have expertise and factories here. It's a basic statement to reassure the automotive sector that they will be supported as we look for ways to utilize our factories and labour force.

You need to stop with your partisan freak outs. Yes, this is concerning. The feds acknowledging the impact on Canada's auto manufacturing industry is Carney just doing a basic part of the job. Literally every PM regardless of party would have said a similar thing.

Your choices - as PM - are "well, we're fkd and the sky is falling...better shutter these factories and all the employees can go on welfare" or you can say something along the lines of, "we have one of the most skilled auto manufacturing sectors in the world and we will find new opportunities using our abundant resources, factories and labour force to carry on in this challenging time."

By all means, if the plan is stupid let's all crap on it, but can you maybe give it a couple days? This just sounds dumb.

[Looch City]

Carney pledges ‘all in Canada’ auto network amid tariff threats

The Liberals are pledging to build an “all in Canada” auto network to help protect Canadian workers from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney unveiled his party’s plan on Wednesday for the country’s auto sector, which will create a $2-billion “strategic response fund.”

Speaking at an election campaign stop in Windsor, Ont., Carney said this money will protect the jobs of workers affected by Trump’s tariffs and “fortify the entire Canadian auto supply chain from raw materials to finished vehicles.”

“Our auto sector has always been there for our country, so in this time of uncertainty and need, Canada will be there for our auto workers,” he said.

Under the Liberal plan, Carney said his government would build an “all in Canada network for auto manufacturing components” to avoid having parts cross the border multiple times before final assembly, which he said was a “huge vulnerability” in a trade war.

Not much details yet but it's basically a fund to ensure there's no giant job losses?









....Thanks Carney, I'm gonna vote for Trump now!

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Azure

There are a lot of people in Canada running around with the elbows up mentality thinking we can go punch for punch with the Americans and win.

We won't win.

We can hurt them A LOT by not buying American and buying Canadian, yes.

But an extended amount of time with these tariffs and who knows what else coming April 2 is going to blow up the Canadian economy.

Our government needs to come to an agreement going forward.

We are also not going to be making cars in Canada to avoid any of this. Anyone suggesting that is a giant moron, Carney included. No car manufacturer is going to invest a dime in Canada knowing it costs a 25% tariff to ship their cars to the US. The fact that it was even suggested was complete stupidity, but hey gotta take advantage of naive Liberal voters.

FFS Azure there is no agreement to be had here, Trump wants to hurt us, he wants to hurt everyone, including the US, it plays to his base, he and his rube followers want to break everything, there is no economic rationale to any of this it is just performative economic cruelty so Trump can look powerful, he doesn't care about manufacturing jobs for the US, he doesn't care about the balance of trade or the US economy, he is breaking things just for the sake of breaking things because it makes him look tough.

Trump is the worst kind of bully, a physical and mental coward who has never stepped up to anyone in his life, who suddenly finds himself able to hurt people without it having any risk for him, he is getting back at a world that he thinks has effed him over his whole life, he is both stupid and burning with resentment for a lifetime of slights and being the butt of jokes and laughter by all the rich folks he aspires to be like

Canada, the US and the world are just going to get poorer and there is nothing we can do to stop it, nothing, we just have to ride it out as best we can as a country and as individuals

[Azure]

I think that mentality is false, and I say that because the Trudeau government was able to deal with his same stupidity with Canadian steel & aluminum during his first term, and they were quite effective.

But hey, Carney should take the first phone call with Trump and instead of figuring stuff out hey should instead say

"Donald, you are the worst kind of bully, a physical and mental coward who has never stepped up to anyone in his life, who suddenly finds himself able to hurt people without it having any risk for him, and now you're getting back at a world that you think has effed you over your whole life. You are both stupid and burning with resentment for a lifetime of slights and being the butt of jokes and laughter by all the rich folks you aspire to be like. Elbows up you loser"

And hang up.

Should work fine.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Take a breath, guy.
You need to stop with your partisan freak outs. Yes, this is concerning. The feds acknowledging the impact on Canada's auto manufacturing industry is Carney just doing a basic part of the job. Literally every PM regardless of party would have said a similar thing. .

I mean Poilievre literally just conveyed nearly the exact same message just a few hours ago

https://twitter.com/user/status/1905340308319060425

This is the first actual full defending of Canada clip against Trump I have seen him done without resorting to bashing Carney or Liberals in the process (well for 2 minutes anyways).

CPC may be finally figuring out that having people like Smith going around at Mar-a-Lago and saying how weak Canada has become isn't going to change what Trump really wants to do, the destruction and submission of Canada. A little too late IMO but they had a choice.

The partisan stuff is small fry compared to the very real threat against Canada. If Liberals are the party beneficiary of this paradigm shift in a moment of existential threat, so be it, we need a united front.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Azure

I think that mentality is false, and I say that because the Trudeau government was able to deal with his same stupidity with Canadian steel & aluminum during his first term, and they were quite effective.

But hey, Liberals are bad, am I right?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Azure

I think that mentality is false, and I say that because the Trudeau government was able to deal with his same stupidity with Canadian steel & aluminum during his first term, and they were quite effective.

But hey, Carney should take the first phone call with Trump and instead of figuring stuff out hey should instead say

"Donald, you are the worst kind of bully, a physical and mental coward who has never stepped up to anyone in his life, who suddenly finds himself able to hurt people without it having any risk for him, and now you're getting back at a world that you think has effed you over your whole life. You are both stupid and burning with resentment for a lifetime of slights and being the butt of jokes and laughter by all the rich folks you aspire to be like. Elbows up you loser"

And hang up.

Should work fine.

He is older, angrier, surrounded by morons and nothing he is doing makes any economic sense, what is it we can offer him? do we volunteer to close all our car plants down ourselves?

You cannot make an offer if Trumps aims aren't rationale and they just aren't, I aint saying you try to tee him off but there is nothing we can offer except joining the US and I'd rather be poor

[afc wimbledon]

What I would like to see just as a huge warning to the US is Canada making a very high profile completely performative application to join the EU along with a Trump like bull #### announcement that Canada and the EU are signing a deal to fast track a natural gas pipeline and LNG plant to sell gas to the EU

If Trump has taught us one thing it's the power of bull#### to move arguments, we need to start making our own ridiculous claims that effectively paint a picture of where we will have to go anyway, we are already thinking about a pipeline so announce it as a done deal that will be operating in a few years, give the EU and Quebec a heads up to go along with the story

[Manhattanboy]

Saw a headline that tourism and related business in the US represents something like 30% of their GDP (that can’t be right can it) and that Canadian travel to the US is down 80%.

That has got to be hurting a ton of businesses.

Is Trump among the biggest idiots to ever hold any leadership position?

Edit: I checked and it’s around 10%. Still huge.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Azure

Liberal delusion. This 'all in Canada' manufacturing is going to sell where? Canada has a VERY limited market, plus we are competing against Asian manufacturers, and with time will have no choice but to allow BYD and others from China to sell here. So, how exactly is this going to work?

Oh right, typical dumb Liberal bull####.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1905050644341195127

I think you are the delusional one- I don't even understand your rage here.

What exactly can't we do? We already market products internationally to other markets that aren't the US. And if the US is going to start trade wars everywhere, then perhaps canadian made cars take the place of american made in EU markets, for example.

We have the people, management, and actual factories who have been making these very cars for these very markets for decades. They were just owned by corporations across the river (i'm very specifically referencing windsor-detroit here.)

IMO this is an excellent scenario. If Ford or GM are forced to sell or vacate destressed assets I hope there are canadian firms to take them up and start production.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Is Trump among the biggest idiots ever?

Yes

[Firebot]

It's 3% according to this

https://www.trade.gov/travel-tourism...cial%20Service.

Inbound international travel to the United States plays a vital role in the Nation’s economy and promotes cultural exchange and understanding. Travel and tourism is the largest single services export for the United States, accounting for 22 percent of the country’s services exports and 7 percent of all exports in 2023. The travel and tourism industry contributed $2.3 trillion to the U.S. economy in 2022 (2.97 percent of the country’s GDP), supporting 9.5 million jobs.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

What I would like to see just as a huge warning to the US is Canada making a very high profile completely performative application to join the EU along with a Trump like bull #### announcement that Canada and the EU are signing a deal to fast track a natural gas pipeline and LNG plant to sell gas to the EU

If Trump has taught us one thing it's the power of bull#### to move arguments, we need to start making our own ridiculous claims that effectively paint a picture of where we will have to go anyway, we are already thinking about a pipeline so announce it as a done deal that will be operating in a few years, give the EU and Quebec a heads up to go along with the story

Love this idea. Do it in the hall of mirrors in the palace of Versailles. All that gold an opulence will piss him off all the more.

The 27 EU leaders and Carney sign some hokey ass document stating intention to begin process of exploring potential ascension to EU candidate status with no dates cited.

Have some knights in medieval armor standing by as they sign it. Fighter jets flyby.

And make Zelenskyy the guest of honor.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Love this idea. Do it in the hall of mirrors in the palace of Versailles. All that gold an opulence will piss him off all the more.

The 27 EU leaders and Carney sign some hokey ass document stating intention to begin process of exploring potential ascension to EU candidate status with no dates cited.

Have some knights in medieval armor standing by as they sign it. Fighter jets flyby.

And make Zelenskyy the guest of honor.

La Piece de Resistance could be that the reception port that must be expropriated by the king for use in this critical project is right on top of the Trump Aberdeen Golf course. Too bad!

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Love this idea. Do it in the hall of mirrors in the palace of Versailles. All that gold an opulence will piss him off all the more.

The 27 EU leaders and Carney sign some hokey ass document stating intention to begin process of exploring potential ascension to EU candidate status with no dates cited.

Have some knights in medieval armor standing by as they sign it. Fighter jets flyby.

And make Zelenskyy the guest of honor.

Yes, we have lived through the steam age, the petrol age and briefly nuclear, we now live in the age of bull#### and our leaders have to adapt to that right quick

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Love this idea. Do it in the hall of mirrors in the palace of Versailles. All that gold an opulence will piss him off all the more.

The 27 EU leaders and Carney sign some hokey ass document stating intention to begin process of exploring potential ascension to EU candidate status with no dates cited.

Have some knights in medieval armor standing by as they sign it. Fighter jets flyby.

And make Zelenskyy the guest of honor.

Alternatively, do it in Greenland.