What will Coronato be next year?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

Dylan Gunther was signed 8 months ago after these two seasons
45 games, 18 goals, 17 assists in 23/24
33 games, 6 goals, 9 assists in 22/23
AHL stats 29 games, 10 goals, 18 assists 22/23

Coronato last two seasons
64 games, 20 goals, 17 assists so far in 24/25
34 games 3 goals, 6 assists 23/24
AHL stats 41 games 15 goals 27 assists 23/24

Guenther was 2 years younger than Coronato in comparing those stats.

So besides producing more, Guenther was doing it when he was 2 years younger.

They really are not that comparable.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Guenther was 2 years younger than Coronato in comparing those stats.

So besides producing more, Guenther was doing it when he was 2 years younger.

They really are not that comparable.

The age difference is really only because Coronato went the US/university route. In experience they are similar. Guenther is a better producer, to date, by a little.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The age difference is really only because Coronato went the US/university route. In experience they are similar. Guenther is a better producer, to date, by a little.

Playing in the NHL vs playing in college is a world of difference.

The age difference is because Guenther was good enough to play in the NHL at an earlier age.

At the age of 21, Guenther is producing at a 35-35-70 pace for 82 games.

At 21, Coronato produced at a 7-13 -20 pace in the NHL.

No one is giving Coronato Guenther's contract.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

recent 2nd contract signings for his age group

Wyatt Johnson 5 x $8.4M
Dylan Gunthier 8 x $7.1M
Matt Beniers 7 x $7.1M
Seth Jarvis 8 x $7.4M
Jake Neighbours 2 x $3.75M
Cole Sillinger 2 x $2.25M
Kent Johnson 3 x $1.8M

None of those really fit. Interesting. Maybe 2x4mm? or 7x6mm?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I don't think players who are likely to bust out will sign for 8 year contracts in the 6MM range, especially with a rising cap.

Unless Calgary is prepared to go above $7M, they'll go shorter term to increase their leverage when the cap is highest and they are coming off excellent years.

Signing contracts walking themselves to UFA is not necessarily about being a UFA, it's about increasing their leverage.

That's what I'm saying. I think a bridge deal is probably what happens, but I hope they go for an 8 year deal. The question is what do I think the team should offer to get it done and convince Coronato, Zary and Frost to stay for 8 years.

Frost and Zary are older so buying more UFA years.

Coronato appears to have the higher upside though.

I wouldn't be upset with:

Coronato - 8 years $7.25 mil

Frost - 8 years $6.75 mil

Zary - 8 years $6.5 mil

I think all 3 would have to consider these amounts. Frost is closest to UFA but never exceeded 50 points in a season yet so taking this big pay day has to be his first choice.

The other 2 are young enough to get 1 more big payday.

[Canada 02]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Guenther was 2 years younger than Coronato in comparing those stats.

So besides producing more, Guenther was doing it when he was 2 years younger.

They really are not that comparable.

it doesn't have to be perfect comparison to be informative. You say Guenther is better. That's fine. How much better? $250K, 500K, a million?

I'd guess that the Flames and the agent have this modelled out for both short term bridge and long term. I'd also guess that several options for term and salary will be discussed.

I personally hope the Flames go long term.

[Monahammer]

I would do 6x6 and think that's a good balance of overpay early and value at end. Of course 7x 6 mil would also be palatable but I suspect Coronato would disagree.

I don't see this contract going over 6 though. And Zary's contract should be around x- 0.5 mil on the same year term.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I would do 6x6 and think that's a good balance of overpay early and value at end. Of course 7x 6 mil would also be palatable but I suspect Coronato would disagree.

I don't see this contract going over 6 though. And Zary's contract should be around x- 0.5 mil on the same year term.

But we did before and everyone was upset when players contract were up and due for huge raises.

If the Flames aren't contending in the next 3-5 years, I'd rather go 8 or bridge.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

That's what I'm saying. I think a bridge deal is probably what happens, but I hope they go for an 8 year deal. The question is what do I think the team should offer to get it done and convince Coronato, Zary and Frost to stay for 8 years.

Frost and Zary are older so buying more UFA years.

Coronato appears to have the higher upside though.

I wouldn't be upset with:

Coronato - 8 years $7.25 mil

Frost - 8 years $6.75 mil

Zary - 8 years $6.5 mil

I think all 3 would have to consider these amounts. Frost is closest to UFA but never exceeded 50 points in a season yet so taking this big pay day has to be his first choice.

The other 2 are young enough to get 1 more big payday.

If they can make the above three signings and get Wolf to sign for 8 X 8, the Flames' salary cap well be well set up to add a 1C in their contention window.

[Hot_Flatus]

I'd sign Coronato to an 8x$7M deal in a heartbeat if his camp was willing. Well worth the risk and at worst you've got a sparkplug, play any situation second liner who can also score 20g.

At best....he's possibly a consistent 35 goal, point per game guy rounding into form here. No point in risking pulling a Treliving here and walking him to his prime years where he signs elsewhere.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

If they can make the above three signings and get Wolf to sign for 8 X 8, the Flames' salary cap well be well set up to add a 1C in their contention window.

Has to be the 1st option for the team. They are not a top destination, so they need to create long term cap space even if it costs them now.

Cap supposed to go up to $113 mil in the next few years. No guarantee that happens so the players should be reasonable when demanding too much inflation from their comparable.

Flames need to take this chance; they just can't be losing guys when it matters and right now, I don't see anyone getting more than Huberdeau until Parekh comes up (assuming he meets his potential)

Flames have 3 years before they have anyone to really be concerned about.

Over the next few years, Backlund, Coleman will be off the books and Kadri could be traded before his contract is up.

I don't see any cap issues for a long time.

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

recent 2nd contract signings for his age group

Wyatt Johnson 5 x $8.4M - $130AAV/pt
Dylan Gunthier 8 x $7.1M - $112AAV/pt
Matt Beniers 7 x $7.1M - $122AAV/pt
Seth Jarvis 8 x $7.4M - $110AAV/pt
Jake Neighbours 2 x $3.75M
Cole Sillinger 2 x $2.25M
Kent Johnson 3 x $1.8M

The long term contracts range from $110k - $130k AAV per point (based on their PPG in the preceding season to their 2nd contract). Assuming those are representative comps, applying the low to middle end of that range to Coronato (assume he finishes strong and gets 50pts), you get an AAV of $5.5M to $6M on a long term contract.

Obviously this analysis over simplifies things and doesn't take into account a whole host of items, but high level, a $5M - $6M AAV for 6-8years seems about right for a guy who on the low end projects to be a 25/25 guy for the duration of the contract.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Well when Guenther broke out he was getting 16 plus minutes of ice time. Last year Coronato was getting 12 minutes and now he is getting 17 and scored 20 goals.

I would bet on the player with a long-term deal that pays him, or we can bridge him and nickel and dime guys and chase them away.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

The long term contracts range from $110k - $130k AAV per point (based on their PPG in the preceding season to their 2nd contract). Assuming those are representative comps, applying the low to middle end of that range to Coronato (assume he finishes strong and gets 50pts), you get an AAV of $5.5M to $6M on a long term contract.

Obviously this analysis over simplifies things and doesn't take into account a whole host of items, but high level, a $5M - $6M AAV for 6-8years seems about right for a guy who on the low end projects to be a 25/25 guy for the duration of the contract.

You have to take into consideration age and year away from when cap inflation slows up. Johnston signed recently and took the highest points per $ amount on the shortest term. I think your assessment probably work if Coronato also take 5 years. I believe then he probably gets $6 mil a year or so. Need to go up to get 8 years as the market has changed.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

That's what I'm saying. I think a bridge deal is probably what happens, but I hope they go for an 8 year deal. The question is what do I think the team should offer to get it done and convince Coronato, Zary and Frost to stay for 8 years.

Frost and Zary are older so buying more UFA years.

Coronato appears to have the higher upside though.

I wouldn't be upset with:

Coronato - 8 years $7.25 mil

Frost - 8 years $6.75 mil

Zary - 8 years $6.5 mil

I think all 3 would have to consider these amounts. Frost is closest to UFA but never exceeded 50 points in a season yet so taking this big pay day has to be his first choice.

The other 2 are young enough to get 1 more big payday.

No way I' giving Frost any kind of long term deal, he's hasn't proved anything with the Flames.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

No way I' giving Frost any kind of long term deal, he's hasn't proved anything with the Flames.

You are good at shooting down ideas without saying what you think is the better option.

He's 26 in a month, sign him 2 years and trade him?

I'd rather trade Kadri.

$6.75 mil is going to be cheap 2nd line money soon. A bit expensive 3rd line money. I see him as either a 2nd liner or 3rd liner.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Frost is an interesting case. His numbers are similar to Lindholm when we got him.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Frost is an interesting case. His numbers are similar to Lindholm when we got him.

I think that is why Philly did the trade. What do you offer Frost? Is Farabee worth his contract too.

Frost probably wants 1 or 2 years or 6+. Philly probably knows this and moved him. Will Conroy commit or view him as a trade asset.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The Flames should not do 5 years as it will take him to UFA.

If you can't get 8, than I'd go 3. Still gives you a chance to sign him at age 25 for 8 years on the next deal and doesnt give him the one year QO to UFA. He's still 5 years from UFA so you do have an extra year to use. Paying a 25 year old who's producing top dollar doesn't sink a team..so I'm okay if he earns a raise if it looks like he'll keep producing. I'd rather avoid a Mangiapane situation where you pay a 15 goal guy like a 30 goal one. I think Coronato has a better pedigree so he's more likely to be in the 30 goal range going forward consistently so long as he's healthy.

Never go 3, one, two or long term

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

You are good at shooting down ideas without saying what you think is the better option.

He's 26 in a month, sign him 2 years and trade him?

I'd rather trade Kadri.

$6.75 mil is going to be cheap 2nd line money soon. A bit expensive 3rd line money. I see him as either a 2nd liner or 3rd liner.

I just checked and saw he's a UFA after next season. Wow. I see now why the Flyers traded him.

Not sure what to do tbh. I wouldn't sign him for 8 years, he's proven little. I think I go 2 years and hope he proves worthy of an additional contract after that.