2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I'd like to know the odds of Rasmus signing a below market contract without a full NMC that would permit Conroy to trade him without his consent.

You need to assume if Rasmus signs, he's here for the foreseeable future.

I think the odds are very low. My point is that there are underlying assumptions in the whole trade Rasmus anxiety. Conroy's job is to figure out where the best return for this asset is located. If Rasmus is willing to sign for $7M a year but he wants trade protection, then the Flames would need to seriously consider that. It's still an asset that they have retained.



For the record, I think that the Flames should trade him but in the summer. However, I am less bullish on the Flames getting a lot of assets for him. I think most teams can see that he's a good top 4 defenceman who can play in the top 2. He's struggled the last while. I think that if he has a good stretch drive (and maybe playoffs) then his value will be peak this summer. Of course, I think that most on here will be disappointed with the return.



These are just my opinions.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

The Sharks tried to keep the band together for too long, and even went and acquired Karlsson in 2018. They went to the conference finals in 2019. Then they hung around for a few years trying to stay competitive before being forced into ripping their band-aid off. They didn't start selling until arguably the Brent Burns trade in July 2022. I said arguably since it seemed they were just trying to balance out their roster and give themselves some cap room to maneuver. They just tanked by trying to win for too long. They really started taking to down in February 2023 and onwards. Now they are probably selling quite a number of Celebrini jerseys.



Bedard's Jersey was the #1 selling jersey in the NHL last year:
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...l-jersey-sales


Calgary will never have jerseys that outsell McDavid or Draisaitl unless they get a young superstar. I would bet my life that if Calgary drafts McKenna next season, that his jersey will out-sell McDavid and Draisaitl combined.



Aside from jersey sales, what matters most is overall revenue and team valuation.



https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/cnbc...ions-2024.html


Edmonton is 6th, and they are generating 379M. Yes, their building absolutely makes it easier to generate revenue, and I expect that the Flames' new building will do the same when it opens up. However, McDavid's worth to that organization is immense. He allows for increased ticket prices and he puts seats in every building he plays in. The entire league watches him all the time. Americans want to see him play, and I assume Oilers games are much more watched on average than Flames' games. Plus, they made it to the Finals. Their 'brand power' has completely eclipsed Calgary's.

I think the ignores market size too much. Calgary fans have an inflated sense of their own relevance overall.

You look at the top sellers and they aren’t just the best players, but the best players playing in the most popular, most dedicated markets. Celebrini is probably selling some jerseys in San Jose, no doubt, but he’s not going to outsell Bedard and that comes down to the fact that he plays for San Jose and Bedard plays for Chicago.

Calgary is below Edmonton in terms of fan base size. And that’s ignoring factors like star power and team performance. I would certainly not bet your life someone like McKenna on Calgary would ever outsell McDavid, let alone McDavid and Draisatl combined. I would be surprised if McKenna in a Flames jersey even cracked the top 10.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'd count Reg as a star in his particular category.

That years was kind of an anomoly however. Sean Donovan had a career year. Gelinas had a ridiculous POs - like lots of other players have and then can't replicate in regular seasons or later POs. Nilson and Neimenen come in, have a great PO and never do it again.

And they sure rode a goalie.

Belief, like actual belief and not just words, is a strong force and that '04 team definitely believed in themselves. I'd guess it didn't come until the 2nd round either and likely took hold in the middle of that round.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I said several times last summer that the time to trade Rasmus was now. After 10 points in 8 games with a +6 rating he has 11 points in 53 games and is -28. His value is going down every game. What contending team thinks he is a lock to be in their top pairing? Maybe 2nd pairing at best. We might get a 1st still but the big return isn't happening anymore.

Trade him now while we can still get a 1st.

I just don't think this is how it works. Just as teams would not have suddenly valued Rasmus way more because of a hot start in 8 games, his value isn't going to plummet with teams understanding he's slotted wrong.
Everything we hear is that if the Flames decide to move him - they will get value. Value doesn't "go down every game".

[SuperMatt18]

Regehr made team Canada in 2004 and 2006 for best on best tournaments, IMO that makes him a star even if he didn't have the points

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'd count Reg as a star in his particular category.

That years was kind of an anomoly however. Sean Donovan had a career year. Gelinas had a ridiculous POs - like lots of other players have and then can't replicate in regular seasons or later POs. Nilson and Neimenen come in, have a great PO and never do it again.

And they sure rode a goalie.

And we were one goal away from a first round exit as well . That happens and the miracle run never exists

[YyjFlames]

I do wonder if the tariff stuff could push a team like Calgary to trade Andersson rather than re-sign him. Nobody can really nail down what the US is doing, but the uncertainty and the significant effect these tariffs are going to have on both economies will impact the salary cap and team budgets if they stay in place for a long time.

I'd be a little more willing to trade him now if he's wanting $8m, as if I were management, I'd be projecting at least internal budget in Calgary's future. And cost controlled futures become even more appealing.

Other than a few players, it's unlikely to really effect this trade deadline, but the uncertainty will at least start showing up in the summer free agency season.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I think the ignores market size too much. Calgary fans have an inflated sense of their own relevance overall.

You look at the top sellers and they aren’t just the best players, but the best players playing in the most popular, most dedicated markets. Celebrini is probably selling some jerseys in San Jose, no doubt, but he’s not going to outsell Bedard and that comes down to the fact that he plays for San Jose and Bedard plays for Chicago.

Calgary is below Edmonton in terms of fan base size. And that’s ignoring factors like star power and team performance. I would certainly not bet your life someone like McKenna on Calgary would ever outsell McDavid, let alone McDavid and Draisatl combined. I would be surprised if McKenna in a Flames jersey even cracked the top 10.

It's a chicken and egg thing though.

Calgary is below Edmonton in fan base size, but isn't that because we traditionally haven't had the same star power.

If we had a history of these all time greats I bet our fan base would be just as big.

The star players are what draws kids in, who become lifetime fans.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I just don't think this is how it works. Just as teams would not have suddenly valued Rasmus way more because of a hot start in 8 games, his value isn't going to plummet with teams understanding he's slotted wrong.
Everything we hear is that if the Flames decide to move him - they will get value. Value doesn't "go down every game".

Just like Seth Jones, his value may well be higher if teams believe he can play better on a true contender and be slotted properly on the second pairing.

But if anything, he's proven to be a 3-4 dmen, not a top pairing guy.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Regehr made team Canada in 2004 and 2006 for best on best tournaments, IMO that makes him a star even if he didn't have the points

That one World Cup he was tasked with checking peak Jagr and succeeded well.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Does it not seem a little quiet for actual rumours? We're only 48 hours from it being over with.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by traptor

It's a chicken and egg thing though.

Calgary is below Edmonton in fan base size, but isn't that because we traditionally haven't had the same star power.

If we had a history of these all time greats I bet our fan base would be just as big.

The star players are what draws kids in, who become lifetime fans.

Sure, but we can’t go back and rewrite history. Chicago, Toronto, or Montreal being an original six team with a long history of success and the Oilers having a dynasty that included who many consider the best player in the history of the league are legacy factors that the Flames are just never going to overcome.

If and buts and all that. All we have is reality today, and yeah, Iginla and that squad turned a whole generation onto the Flames, but a pretty geographically isolated generation. That’s not going to change any time soon, if ever.

Washington currently has the best goal scorer in the history of the league. Generational by any measure. They’re still looking up at a whole bunch of other teams in terms of popularity, and when Ovi retires, they’ll fall further outside the conversation.

There are things mid-market teams will a limited legacy can just never overcome. If you swapped the last ten years of history between Calgary and Edmonton (complete with McDavid on the Flames, all that) I still can’t see a reality where that hypothetical Calgary team is more popular than Edmonton is today.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Does it not seem a little quiet for actual rumours? We're only 48 hours from it being over with.

Kypreos just said that the idea of Crosby and Marchand going to Colorado is "real" and it is all essentially pending a thumbs up from Sidney. Would be wild.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Sure, but we can’t go back and rewrite history. Chicago, Toronto, or Montreal being an original six team with a long history of success and the Oilers having a dynasty that included who many consider the best player in the history of the league are legacy factors that the Flames are just never going to overcome.

If and buts and all that. All we have is reality today, and yeah, Iginla and that squad turned a whole generation onto the Flames, but a pretty geographically isolated generation. That’s not going to change any time soon, if ever.

Washington currently has the best goal scorer in the history of the league. Generational by any measure. They’re still looking up at a whole bunch of other teams in terms of popularity, and when Ovi retires, they’ll fall further outside the conversation.

There are things mid-market teams will a limited legacy can just never overcome. If you swapped the last ten years of history between Calgary and Edmonton (complete with McDavid on the Flames, all that) I still can’t see a reality where that hypothetical Calgary team is more popular than Edmonton is today.

The Canada factor matters too, though.

A generational player in Washington is different than that same player on a Canadian team.

There are still many folks out there that will blindly cheer for a Canadian team in the playoffs just because. Attach a top flight player, gets all the Canadian media outlets talking about it, it's a different comp.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Kypreos just said that the idea of Crosby and Marchand going to Colorado is "real" and it is all essentially pending a thumbs up from Sidney. Would be wild.

Would be the biggest trade in decades. Just on the significance of it being Crosby… let alone the cost. Since Crosby holds all the cards here and there is likely only one team he would waive for, it’s really tough to gauge the return.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Sure, but we can’t go back and rewrite history. Chicago, Toronto, or Montreal being an original six team with a long history of success and the Oilers having a dynasty that included who many consider the best player in the history of the league are legacy factors that the Flames are just never going to overcome.

If and buts and all that. All we have is reality today, and yeah, Iginla and that squad turned a whole generation onto the Flames, but a pretty geographically isolated generation. That’s not going to change any time soon, if ever.

Washington currently has the best goal scorer in the history of the league. Generational by any measure. They’re still looking up at a whole bunch of other teams in terms of popularity, and when Ovi retires, they’ll fall further outside the conversation.

There are things mid-market teams will a limited legacy can just never overcome. If you swapped the last ten years of history between Calgary and Edmonton (complete with McDavid on the Flames, all that) I still can’t see a reality where that hypothetical Calgary team is more popular than Edmonton is today.

I do think if you swapped Oilers and Flames rosters, the flames would be the more popular team right now.

Oilers and Flames are fighting over a market. There's diehards like ourselves who could never cheer for the other side, but for alot of casual Alberta/Saskatchewan fans, they just cheer for whoever is more exciting and succesful. Then you throw in the kids all over, who just watch the best player highlights and cheer for that team.

It is a long term investment that plays dividends too. Because those kids are between 5-15. They grow up and stay fans on those teams with the players they idolized and start spending money.


Yeah the flames have had some of this, most predominantly with Iggy. I think that's where many of us Millennials got locked in. Gaudreau too.

I think Wolf can start to be that. I'm not sure that Goalies always have the same magnetism as a star forward though.

[dammage79]

I just don't see Sid leaving Pittsburgh no matter the state of the team. He's always seemed like a lifer.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Kypreos just said that the idea of Crosby and Marchand going to Colorado is "real" and it is all essentially pending a thumbs up from Sidney. Would be wild.

That would be crazy. I hope it happens.

Would love to see Crosby, MacK and Makar knock out McD and Dry

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by traptor

That would be crazy. I hope it happens.

Would love to see Crosby, MacK and Makar knock out McD and Dry

Edmonton is cooked in round 1 so I don't think we'll get to see that unfortunately.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Kypreos just said that the idea of Crosby and Marchand going to Colorado is "real" and it is all essentially pending a thumbs up from Sidney. Would be wild.

I don’t think kypreos has ever been right about any rumour. I have my doubts this is real.