So the Election is tomorrow, and the AfD with a lot of help from Elon Musk, might get as much as 25% of the popular vote. Seems that Nazi salute of his was no mistake.
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So the Election is tomorrow, and the AfD with a lot of help from Elon Musk, might get as much as 25% of the popular vote. Seems that Nazi salute of his was no mistake.
And before anyone thinks that 25% popular vote is still low, it is worth noting that the party currently with the most seats in government has 28% of the seats with roughly 25.7% of the populare vote last time around..
I'm not familiar enough with German politics to know how popular vote correlates to seats in government, but I assume there is some relationship there just based on the results from the last election. For example, in the last election, the AFD had 10.4% of the popular vote and 11% of the seats in government.
So if 25% of the popular vote gets them around that in seats, they could be the most, or second most powerful party in the government. At least when it comes to single party power excluding coalitions and alliances.
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Germany has a proportional representation system so, yes, they are going to be close to matching the % of seats to the % of pop vote. The Christian Democrats (CDU) are likely going to be the leading party trying to form a coalition. It will be tough to create a coalition without the AfD which is pretty scary. The Social Democrats and Greens are taking a big hit and might be open to forming a broad coalition with the CDU to keep AfD sidelined.
Moderate right wing parties used to completely avoid negotiating with the far right but we’ve seen a bunch of them form coalitions with them recently. Not good.
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28.7% CDU/CSU
19.8% AFD
16.4% SPD
12.3% Green Party
8.9% Die Linke
still painful to see a fifth of the electorate vote for Nazis, but that could have gone way, way worse. Not the brutal shift to the right that many feared.
Early results show the Christian Democrat Union with 28.9% of the vote, the AfD at 19.7, the SDP (Olaf Schulz Party) at 16.1. The Grune or Greens with 13.2% The Far Left Die Linke (The Left a party with roots from the East German Communist days) is at 8.6. Another extreme type party but with hard left economic policy, but a lot of similar policy on other issues to the AfD called the BSW is just under 5% at 4.8 which is the minimum to get into the "Bundestag."
Looks like some type of Coalition with the CDU, SPD, and Greens will be needed.
Still there's about 1/3 of the population going to the extremes of the spectrum in either direction.
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kudos to Friedrich Merz though, it takes a special talent to not even get the CDU to 30 percent in this particular moment. They were polling around 37 percent in November, I think.
Can't say I'm surprised though, him accepting the AfD votes to try to pass his immigration bill was unforgiveable. No wonder the AfD is already talking about supporting "sensible" CDU bills in the future ... Merz has legitimized them. Still hope BSW falls below 5 percent. If everything else fails, I'm sure Putin has a cushy position ready for a willing Russian asset like Wagenknecht.
Biggest positive today: incredible voter turnout, around 84 percent.
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Die Linke’s surge (if exit polls are correct) is surprising but could be East German voters who reconsidered their AfD support late in the game. Even though they are far apart on the spectrum, there is a surprising overlap in their voter pool. It will be interesting to see how BSW does as they were making gains in the polls at Die Linke’s expense…if they crack the 5% threshold, they could be a long term player.
Still hope BSW falls below 5 percent. If everything else fails, I'm sure Putin has a cushy position ready for a willing Russian asset like Wagenknecht.
finished with 4.972 percent lol. They are already crying voter fraud.
With both FDP and BSW missing the Bundestag, a coalition between CDU and SPD will be enough to have a majority.
One of these is the election map, one is East and West Germany. Part of the reason for this is that in West Germany they learned their history. In East Germany they lived under the Soviets, and did not learn much of the holocaust. Turns out, history is important to learn. East Germany also remains poorer.
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The fact that the AfD is trotting out the granddaughter of Hitler's finance minister as their public face is... something.
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I mean, she and her partner have been living in Switzerland for many years. Even among hypocritical fascists, she sticks out like a sore thumb.
But her sexuality has led AfD voters to say #### like "well, she's gay herself, so her party can't possibly be against LGBTQ+ rights", so I guess it's working.
I'm pretty certain that none of us know anything about the government in Greenland but it looks like one of their right-centre parties won a minority government this week. They went from 9% in the previous election to 30% this time. The two leftist parties that currently governed finished third and fourth.
By all accounts, the Greenland election was decided on the issue of independence from Denmark (which all parties agree to, but differ on the speed of that independence), and fisheries issues.
A professor from Nuuk said that the last governing coalition instituted new fishing legislation that was roundly hated - i suspect those were fishing limits etc. which resulted in a large change for government.
Independence was another issue. Closer ties to the US has been supported by one party over the last few years. They saw an increase, but tough to say it was for that specifically.
All parties have resoundingly rejected US annexation.
I'm pretty certain that none of us know anything about the government in Greenland but it looks like one of their right-centre parties won a minority government this week. They went from 9% in the previous election to 30% this time. The two leftist parties that currently governed finished third and fourth.
I don't know much about Greenland politics, but the party that won 30%, coincidentally called the Democrats, is descried in Wikipedia as "center to center-right" with a ideologies of social liberalism and independence.
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