2025 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Roof-Daddy]

Not a great job with the money, but 92, 91 and 89 win seasons along with 3 out 4 times making the playoffs is nothing to sneeze at. And a lot of that was done despite Bo and Vlad, not because of them.

They're good players a lot of the time, great players for small stretches, and complete ass at times too. Not really who you want to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to and then try to build around them. Vlad doesn't even play a premier position, and Bo plays one at a below average level.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I struggle with this one. I’m not a big Vlad fan. And maybe that’s my bias. I just don’t think he’s serious about the game.
I long thought between the two, Bo would be the one that I commit to, but that obviously is not happening.
I’m not sure signing Vlad to a massive contract leads to any team level success. It’s easy for him to say he wants to be here – but at what price?
It feels like, more than ever, MLB is concentrating talent into a small number of major markets. It’s quite discouraging from a fan POV. From time to time a small team will squeak in and win something, but it’s hard not to ignore the distinct advantages that certain markets hold.

Bo isn’t nearly as good offensively as Vlad and is worse defensively. Not sure I understand the reasoning of preferring Bo over Vlad.

They both should be, signed long term.

Shapiro doesn’t understand how much of a drop off in viewership and attendance will be with no star players and no wins. This isn’t the Leafs, people aren’t going to show up and watch just because.

[howard_the_duck]

Put me in the camp that wanted to see Vladdy sign long term. I'd have been willing to go in the $400-450 range. $500 gets too rich for a first baseman, IMO, let alone if he's asking north of that.

The FO messed up not having locked him up earlier but not paying him premium after one of his best seasons might not be a bad decision long term.

I think trading him is the only option now. A one and done season isn't all that interesting to me. Dealing Vladdy could reshape their farm system.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I don't think this is a fair complaint from a Jays fan point of view. The Jays payroll is "major-market" level, imo. They aren't the As or Marlins or something, they're spending well into CBT.

Are they doing a great job with that money, well, that's a different question altogether...

They have to overpay to get free agents and can't retain their own.
But I'm not looking at this from the POV as a Jays fan but moreso from the perspective of the sport overall.

I think it is, and will remain, highly imbalanced.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by JTech780

Vladdy is a top 10 offensive player in baseball, does he have warts, sure, so does Soto who just got $760m. Vladdy’s defense is not that bad, he was a -1 DRS, would you like it to be better of course, but that’s not horrible.

Is he worth $500m, no, Soto isn’t worth $760m either, but they don’t have anyone in the system that is remotely close to Vladdy and they aren’t going to be able to sign or trade for one either. You have to be willing to pay up if you want to win. This team will never be a winning franchise as long as Shapiro is around, and he isn’t going anywhere any time soon.

The last player that the Jays developed at Vladdy’s level was probably Delgado. Are we ready to wait another 20+ years to get another Vladdy? That’s where this team is at.

Vladdy has the 15th best wRC+ in MLB the last three seasons, and is ranked 49th in fWAR over those same three years.

When you add in the body type, and the really bad mental errors, IMO he is not really a guy you should be giving a mega contract to.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Vladdy has the 15th best wRC+ in MLB the last three seasons, and is ranked 49th in fWAR over those same three years.

When you add in the body type, and the really bad mental errors, IMO he is not really a guy you should be giving a mega contract to.

When you look at 1B, he's probably the best in the league? If not, top 3, and given his age he's got a ton of runway to be the best for a while.

Still, there needs to be a ceiling to what you pay this position. The Soto comp goes out the window at a non-premium position like 1st, and for the latter part of the deal, likely DH.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Vladdy has the 15th best wRC+ in MLB the last three seasons, and is ranked 49th in fWAR over those same three years.

When you add in the body type, and the really bad mental errors, IMO he is not really a guy you should be giving a mega contract to.

Counter point is he's also only 26 (when the season starts), and his body type has improved these past two seasons.

Honestly think he could easily become a super star that consistently hits 40 HRs and above .300, just as likely as he could become a Prince Fielder type of story.

In the end based if the Jays were offering $450 - $500 for 10-12 years it was a fair contract. $40M+ for a 1st baseman would smash the salary record for a 1B.

Seems like Vladdy wanted to be closer to the Soto range of $50M per season, for 12+ years. And Vladdy might get that in free agency...but even though Vladdy's been great he doesn't really deserve to be a top 5 paid player in the MLB so I can see why the Jays would hesitate.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Counter point is he's also only 26 (when the season starts), and his body type has improved these past two seasons.

Honestly think he could easily become a super star that consistently hits 40 HRs and above .300, just as likely as he could become a Prince Fielder type of story.

In the end based if the Jays were offering $450 - $500 for 10-12 years it was a fair contract. $40M+ for a 1st baseman would smash the salary record for a 1B.

Seems like Vladdy wanted to be closer to the Soto range of $50M per season, for 12+ years. And Vladdy might get that in free agency...but even though Vladdy's been great he doesn't really deserve to be a top 5 paid player in the MLB so I can see why the Jays would hesitate.

I honestly think that in the end we're going to be glad the Jays didn't cave to his (supposed) demands. He is nowhere close to being a top 5 player in baseball. Top 50 maybe.

[flamingred89]

WAR isn't really a good metric for determining contract value. As we've seen with the Ohtani and Soto contracts it's more about marketing star players, selling jerseys, and creating hype. Which is what the Jays desperately need. So the market is now saying something totally different than what the stats are. Hell, both Ohtani and Soto will likely be fulltime DH's sooner rather than later. Which could be the case for Vlad in the coming years. Which will greatly affect WAR.

I dont get the argument about Vlad's body build and weight. The dude is looking as trim as his body type likely dictates. He's been dedicated to training and having a healthier diet. His dad wasn't exactly an Adonis type and he sure had a great career. There have been lots of thicker players picking and playing well into their late 30's and beyond at 1b. Dude just has a big dumper.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Vladdy has the 15th best wRC+ in MLB the last three seasons, and is ranked 49th in fWAR over those same three years.

When you add in the body type, and the really bad mental errors, IMO he is not really a guy you should be giving a mega contract to.

Over the last 4 seasons he has the 9th best wRC+ and 11th best OPS, he also younger than anyone ahead of him on either list. He is just now entering his prime years.

[Jason14h]

I’m fine with notsigning Bo and Vlad - I actually think their prime isn’t really fitting with this teams being competitive if they are honest with themselves and the cost will be an issue long term when this team (should) be on the upswing again

But what the whole strategy / point of any of the offseason moves for the long term

If you knew you weren’t able or wanting to sign these two guys , would t it make sense to deal both , deal your older pitchers , cut payroll for a few years while you build up the farm and then properly reset

Feels like this season is a Hail Mary being thrown from their own 30 yard line with no time left on the clock

[flamingred89]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I honestly think that in the end we're going to be glad the Jays didn't cave to his (supposed) demands. He is nowhere close to being a top 5 player in baseball. Top 50 maybe.

Ha. He's had MVP caliber seasons 2 of the last 4 seasons. I think anyone who can compete for the MVP every second season is a top 20 player. To suggest that he's maybe a top 50 is laughable. And when you come to marketability and star power he's probably top 10.

[bluejays]

To me Vlad has a higher ceiling than Bo but both are stars. There have to be limits to what you pay them though. They can’t just demand x and expect management to give in. I don’t think the Jays should go above 7 years for either. To think that they’re worth $50 per season is crazy. Soto and Ohtani were overpaid, period. I don’t blame them for trying but to lock those guys up for that length of time at that price isn’t worth it. I’m on the record as an Atkins hater, but putting biases aside, there have to be values on each player. Great someone will pay his price but glad it won’t be here. Fans understand. As long as there’s hope and a compelling story fans will show. There’s no other summer sport like it. They’ll be fine as long as they get good value. I’m still thinking some more attempts will be made eventually.

[SuperMatt18]

He's a top 15 player being asked to be paid like a top 5 player...honestly think it's as simple as that.

The 3 guys he's comparing himself to are Judge, Soto, and Ohtani...and let's be serious that Ohtani contract isn't even comparable due to the pitching aspect.

So really it's 2 guys

Soto: 26 WAR the last 4 seasons, $51M
Judge: 31.9 WAR the last 4 seasons, $40M

Guerrero: 18.9 WAR the past 4 seasons

So really he's not in the same realm as those guys right now, but seems like he wants to be paid like it.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I honestly think that in the end we're going to be glad the Jays didn't cave to his (supposed) demands. He is nowhere close to being a top 5 player in baseball. Top 50 maybe.

MLB just ranked him as the 13th best player in baseball, 12th best offensive player, and the only players younger than him that are in that group are Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson.

Your bias is showing really strong on this one, because the facts are all pointing to you being very wrong on your assesment.

[Roof-Daddy]

Top 15 player?

Maybe a top 15 hitter, but not a top 15 player.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by JTech780

MLB just ranked him as the 13th best player in baseball, 12th best offensive player, and the only players younger than him that are in that group are Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson.

Your bias is showing really strong on this one, because the facts are all pointing to you being very wrong on your assesment.

Ah, so we'll discount things like fWAR but if MLB arbitrarily ranks him that high then I guess we'll just chug that kool-aid?

If I have an overly negative bias, you certainly have an overly positive bias at the same time. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

[Roof-Daddy]

I will say this, Vladdy had the 11th highest fWAR in MLB in 2024 and most of that happened after June when he clipped his hair. If he can keep doing that this season I will be very happy. It's much more fun watching him succeed as a Jay than fail.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He's a top 15 player being asked to be paid like a top 5 player...honestly think it's as simple as that.

The 3 guys he's comparing himself to are Judge, Soto, and Ohtani...and let's be serious that Ohtani contract isn't even comparable due to the pitching aspect.

So really it's 2 guys

Soto: 26 WAR the last 4 seasons, $51M
Judge: 31.9 WAR the last 4 seasons, $40M

Guerrero: 18.9 WAR the past 4 seasons

So really he's not in the same realm as those guys right now, but seems like he wants to be paid like it.

Aaron Judge wsn't Aaron Judge till he was 25, the same age as Vladdy now, then he had 3 seasons of struggling to stay on the field, then had a massive season in '22 at age 30 and then got paid.

Would you rather pay a guy who is just about to enter his prime, and get all of his prime years, who has shown that he can be a great offensive player, or pay a guy who is in the 2nd half of his prime, and will still be paid like a star into his late 30's. I would rather pay the guy just heading into his prime.

I get there is risk, just like any other signing, but I will take the risk on a player just entering his prime. As far as I know he isn't asking for $760m, in fact it sounds like he is asking for $260-300m less than that. That's a whole Trea Turner contract of difference.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by JTech780

Aaron Judge wsn't Aaron Judge till he was 25, the same age as Vladdy now, then he had 3 seasons of struggling to stay on the field, then had a massive season in '22 at age 30 and then got paid.

Would you rather pay a guy who is just about to enter his prime, and get all of his prime years, who has shown that he can be a great offensive player, or pay a guy who is in the 2nd half of his prime, and will still be paid like a star into his late 30's. I would rather pay the guy just heading into his prime.

I get there is risk, just like any other signing, but I will take the risk on a player just entering his prime. As far as I know he isn't asking for $760m, in fact it sounds like he is asking for $260-300m less than that. That's a whole Trea Turner contract of difference.

What's the max you would pay him on term and $$?