Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Wolf couldn't take a bottom-feeder to the playoffs, but he could probably take a bottom-feeder out of the bottom 5.

I also agree with this.

My hope for the results of this season is that the team either makes the playoffs or drops into the top10 (I still think top10 is more likely between the two).

If we are in the top10, I would hope that Conroy tries to bundle up our two first round picks and our second and get high enough to try to draft Misa or McQueen.

I know a lot of posters here prefer quantity of picks, and that it is unlikely that any team in the top 10 will be willing to trade down any number of spots, but I would rather see a consolidation of draft capital into a single targeted selection to help our depth at C.

After this season I expect we keep graduating successfully developed prospects and I believe our roster may improve away from the "top10 draft" faster than anticipated. (A lot of people thought we would bottom out this year and 2 more seasons.)

Consider just replacing UFA vets over the summer.

Out: Mantha, Rooney, Barrie, Hanley, Vladar
In: Stromgren, Gridin, Kuznetsov, Poirier, Cooley

It may not be this group exactly coming in, but any package of our prospects graduating feels like an upgrade to the names going out and if our roster is upgrading, then it doesn't make sense to expect the team to perform worse.

[Matty81]

With the flames sliding a bit and now holding the 14th pick.. got me thinking about the gd monahan trade again.

Have we ever got 100% certainty on the montreal conditions?

I've read all the stuff online and know it has to be top 10 for calgary to keep it. but some people have claimed calgary keeps any lotto pick.

And then what happens if it is top 10 and the flames move up or move down in the lotto? get bumped from 10 to 11 for example would we lose the pick then?

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Matty81

With the flames sliding a bit and now holding the 14th pick.. got me thinking about the gd monahan trade again.

Have we ever got 100% certainty on the montreal conditions?

I've read all the stuff online and know it has to be top 10 for calgary to keep it. but some people have claimed calgary keeps any lotto pick.

And then what happens if it is top 10 and the flames move up or move down in the lotto? get bumped from 10 to 11 for example would we lose the pick then?

Yes, we're 100% certain. The pick is determined after the draft lottery.

If both Calgary's own 2025 first (1st) round choice and Florida's 2025 first (1st) round choice (previously acquired by Calgary) are not in the top-10 selections of the 2025 NHL Draft (following the determination of the 2025 NHL Draft lottery results), then Montreal shall receive the earlier of the two

source

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Yes, we're 100% certain. The pick is determined after the draft lottery.

source

Might need to bank on some lottery luck to get into the top ten…

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Might need to bank on some lottery luck to get into the top ten…

Getting pretty tight now, lots of teams just below the Flames but they're only 4 points up on the 10th pick, and 7 points up on 6th overall. Like a lot of people I don't actively choose for them to lose, but if the playoffs fall out of view I won't be disappointed to see a loss after it actually happens

Absolute worst case scenario is finishing with the 11th-16th pick

[delayedreflex]

Still can't believe that Treliving agreed to the better pick between Calgary and Florida instead of the worse pick. I would be shocked if Montreal wouldn't budge on that, even the lower of 2 first rounders would have been a solid return for Montreal to take on 1 year of cap dump (as Monahan was essentially seen at the time).

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Getting pretty tight now, lots of teams just below the Flames but they're only 4 points up on the 10th pick, and 7 points up on 6th overall. Like a lot of people I don't actively choose for them to lose, but if the playoffs fall out of view I won't be disappointed to see a loss after it actually happens

Absolute worst case scenario is finishing with the 11th-16th pick

If the Flames lose to the Kraken tonight, they would be 7 points up for 5th overall. Very close margins.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

If the Flames lose to the Kraken tonight, they would be 7 points up for 5th overall. Very close margins.

A ton of teams in between

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

If the Flames lose to the Kraken tonight, they would be 7 points up for 5th overall. Very close margins.

Hopefully they go on a streak either way, win or lose.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Getting pretty tight now, lots of teams just below the Flames but they're only 4 points up on the 10th pick, and 7 points up on 6th overall. Like a lot of people I don't actively choose for them to lose, but if the playoffs fall out of view I won't be disappointed to see a loss after it actually happens

Absolute worst case scenario is finishing with the 11th-16th pick

I’m actually not fussed about losing the pick now. I pretty much only cared when giving up a top ten pick was on the table. 11th would sting but wouldn’t be end of the world.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I’m actually not fussed about losing the pick now. I pretty much only cared when giving up a top ten pick was on the table. 11th would sting but wouldn’t be end of the world.

The Flames have made their bed for this season by playing half decent.

If I’m management I see enough promising young guys that what I’m going to try and ingrain is to avoid the other flames tendency of always ####ting the bed when opportunity knocks.

This is the point in the season when you learn how to be a winner. They’ve put themselves in the race. Finish the race for the love of god. I would be pushing hard if I was the coaching staff and trying to help if I could if I was Conroy.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Quick update following the Avs game because it changed the standings a bunch.

Marching to the Trade Deadline:

• Expected Wins: Sharks (H)
• Likely Wins: Kraken (H)
• Likely Losses: Flyers (A)
• Expected Losses: Capitals (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H), Avalanche (H),

*Defied expectation

Playoff standings update:
The team is now outside of a playoff spot. Ouch. 2 points back on the Canucks with even games played.

Tankathon Update:

• The Flames have the 16th hardest remaining schedule
• Canucks have the 9th hardest (big jump after their Sharks game!)
• Kings have the 20st hardest
• Blues are 23rd hardest (no change)

"Top10 draft" Update:
Flames have dropped down to 19th overall. Both New York teams are 2-3 points behind with a game in hand but they both have difficult schedules in front of them. Canadiens and UHC are both 4 points back and even games played and they have pretty easy schedules (25 and 21, respectively). Top10 is not likely but it is possible.

Marching to the Trade Deadline - 7 games remaining:

• Expected Wins: Sharks (H)
• Likely Wins:
• Likely Losses: Flyers (A)
• Expected Losses: Capitals (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*,
• Confirmed OTL: Kraken (H)*
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H), Avalanche (H),

*Defied expectation

Playoff standings update:
The team has lost ground on the playoff spot and are now 3 points back on the Canucks with even games played.
Demko was injured again in their game against the Leafs but reports are it wasn’t serious and he has a couple of weeks to rest up during the break.

Tankathon Update:

• The Flames have the 11th hardest remaining schedule
• Canucks have the 12th hardest
• Kings have the 20st hardest
• Blues are 14th hardest

"Top10 draft" Update:
Flames are back to the 3-way tie for 17th overall.
Both New York teams and UHC are 2-3 points behind.
Canadiens, Blues, Penguins, and Flyers are all 5 points back.

[SuperMatt18]

I still think a bottom 10 finish is very unlikely even with the tough schedule: taking a somewhat pessimistic view of the Flames remaining scheduled I came out with:

Sharks - win
@ Capitals - OTL
@ Lightning - loss
@ Panthers - loss
@ Hurricanes - OTL
@ Flyers - win
@ Stars - loss
Canadiens - win
Canucks - win
Avalanche - loss
@ Leafs - loss
@ Rangers - OTL
@ Devils - loss
@ Islanders - win
Kraken - win
Stars - loss
@ Oilers - win
@ Avs - loss
@ Utah - win
Ducks - win
Knights - loss
@ Sharks - loss
@ Ducks - win
Wild - loss
Sharks - win
Knights - loss
Kings - win

12-12-3

That would make them finish with 87 points and most likely 9th place in the West. In order to get to bottom 10 they likely can't finish with more than 80 points.

So that would be 9-16-2...or getting 20 out of a possible 54 points remaining (.370 points percentage).

Very unlikely. My hope is they keep winning because I'd rather make the playoffs than lose now and give up the 12th OV pick. Which if they start to struggle is a way more likely than dropping enough to pick bottom 10.

[Enoch Root]

Getting hot, or getting cold, is never 'predictable'. But it happens all the time, anyway.

[kyuss275]

Flames are 5 points up on 10th place. Unfortunately they have been around 5 points up for over a month. I believe they have gone 6-8 durring this time. It kind of shows how hard it is to drop to top 10. Yes flames are losing but so are the teams in the top 10. I don’t see it happening and might as well cheer for playoffs.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Getting hot, or getting cold, is never 'predictable'. But it happens all the time, anyway.

It's more just "how cold" they would need to get.

Last year the Flames traded a bunch of pieces, shutdown Markstrom, and had a worse roster than they have right now...and they went 13-14-0.

Last year the bottom 5 teams over their last 27 games were:

San Jose: .222
Anaheim: .315
Chicago: .352
Columbus: .370
New Jersey: .389

Flames will have to be a bottom 4 team the rest of the season to get a top 10 pick. So I'm just hoping they "Get hot" instead of "getting cold" because getting cold likely doesn't mean we get a top 10 pick, it more likely means we give Montreal a pick in the 11-13 range.

Even with this last little slide they are 13-11-3 in their last 27 games. The only team in the west that is currently behind them that actually gained points on them in that time is Anaheim (30 points vs 29 points).

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by delayedreflex

Still can't believe that Treliving agreed to the better pick between Calgary and Florida instead of the worse pick. I would be shocked if Montreal wouldn't budge on that, even the lower of 2 first rounders would have been a solid return for Montreal to take on 1 year of cap dump (as Monahan was essentially seen at the time).

Remember that Monny had a limited NTC, Montreal may have been the only team with available cap space that was on his list.

And no one can really speculate what went on in negotiations.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Remember that Monny had a limited NTC, Montreal may have been the only team with available cap space that was on his list.

And no one can really speculate what went on in negotiations.

Yeah I think assuming that Treliving didn't ask for a better deal then he ended up with has about a 3% likelihood.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Remember that Monny had a limited NTC, Montreal may have been the only team with available cap space that was on his list.

And no one can really speculate what went on in negotiations.

That trade was one of the worst in franchise history. When Monahan was having to adjust the way he took faceoffs due to pain in both hips, they should have just shut him down and put him on LTIR until after his surgery, rather than trading him as damaged goods with a sweetener to get rid of him. Awful asset management, he has subsequently turned out to have significant value.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

41 points and +17 for Mony in Columbus this season..

Treliving was a goof.