[PGT] Colorado 4 Calgary 2

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Wait, you're arguing that they are never tired? That they never have bad games?

Do you believe that some players play at their very best, every time they play?

Oh they get tired, I'm sure. But they're still able to come up big in enough moments of those games to make an impact on it.

These guys can't muster a goal without a two man advantage, even with the two new talents they brought in.

I've seen non-talented teams in Calgary that were still able to will even strength goals out of games in the dog days of the season.

This group must be dealing with a few factors. But it's not measuring up in preparedness to some of the teams rolling through town lately.

Not sure a talent discrepancy fully excuses being this inept at 5 on 5 (we have some good players on this roster, for as much flak as people give it).

Regardless, the break can't come soon enough. They need players back, to heal injuries and get some practice together.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So you don't think three games in four nights with a back to back in less than 21 hours would have an affect on any hockey team?

Flames got demolished in the first period. It was hidden by a five on three opportunity that gave them the lead and some scoring chances.

I'm open to believing it has an effect. Show me with analysis. Otherwise we'll sit around talking about rustiness, chemistry, confidence, and all kinds of hockey myths that don't exist in reality.

PP/PK is part of hockey. It isn't exclusively a 5v5 game.

[FBI]

Are we missing Pelletier’s energy and charisma?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by FBI

Are we missing Pelletier’s energy and charisma?

Yes. And rest. But not too much, then we'll be rusty.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I'm open to believing it has an effect. Show me with analysis. Otherwise we'll sit around talking about rustiness, chemistry, confidence, and all kinds of hockey myths that don't exist in reality.

PP/PK is part of hockey. It isn't exclusively a 5v5 game.

No you go prove it.

You're the one with the bizzarro theory that schedule has no affect on athletes ability to play their best?

Confidence is a myth?

This is getting stranger and stranger by the minute.

I think some like to argue so much that they paint themself into an odd ball corner and then just revert to "I know you are but what am I" for hours to avoid letting it go.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bingo

No you go prove it.

You're the one with the bizzarro theory that schedule has no affect on athletes ability to play their best?

Confidence is a myth?

This is getting stranger and stranger by the minute.

I think some like to argue so much that they paint themself into an odd ball corner and then just revert to "I know you are but what am I" for hours to avoid letting it go.

Then why would a confident, rested line ever give up a goal to a nervous overworked line?

Maybe because it has no effect or (more likely) you're overrating the effect it has.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I'm now convinced that butterfly is an AI program.

Concepts like human fatigue, confidence, chemistry (read as: ability to anticipate each other's decisions on a line), or just even being rusty (read as: ability to process the game at a high speed required for NHL success), is completely beyond a computer program like butterfly. There's no point in arguing with a robot who does not feel.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bingo

No you go prove it.

You make a claim and it’s up to me to disprove it. Is this the new scientific method? Lol

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I'm now convinced that butterfly is an AI program.

Concepts like human fatigue, confidence, chemistry (read as: ability to anticipate each other's decisions on a line), or just even being rusty (read as: ability to process the game at a high speed required for NHL success), is completely beyond a computer program like butterfly. There's no point in arguing with a robot who does not feel.

If your theory is that these things impact results of games, quantify it. I’d love to see it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Then why would a confident, rested line ever give up a goal to a nervous overworked line?

Maybe because it has no effect or (more likely) you're overrating the effect it has.

This is a ridiculous question - and you know it.

There can be more than one thing at play at the same time. A worse team can better a better team; a tired team can beat a rested team; a player who is concentrating fiercely can lose to a player who is not trying.

None of that suggests, let alone proves, that talent, fatigue and concentration don't exist.

One of the biggest problems with stats, is its limitations. Just because you can't see the effects of something in the stats, does not mean it isn't there. Just because the standard error is expected to be zero, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Just because the averages wash out the randomness in the aggregate, doesn't mean that luck doesn't exist.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by FBI

Are we missing Pelletier’s energy and charisma?

I think we're underestimating the impact of charisma on the locker room.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

If your theory is that these things impact results of games, quantify it. I’d love to see it.

Which is the more plausible hypothesis?

Despite the fact that we believe we experience these effects, we can't quantify them with statistics, therefore they don't exist.

Stats, as we apply them, aren't capable of quantifying these effects

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Oh they get tired, I'm sure. But they're still able to come up big in enough moments of those games to make an impact on it.

These guys can't muster a goal without a two man advantage, even with the two new talents they brought in.

I've seen non-talented teams in Calgary that were still able to will even strength goals out of games in the dog days of the season.

This group must be dealing with a few factors. But it's not measuring up in preparedness to some of the teams rolling through town lately.

Not sure a talent discrepancy fully excuses being this inept at 5 on 5 (we have some good players on this roster, for as much flak as people give it).

Regardless, the break can't come soon enough. They need players back, to heal injuries and get some practice together.

No one is arguing that those players aren't good. Are you arguing that they don't get tired? Are you arguing that fatigue doesn't affect performance?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This is a ridiculous question - and you know it.

There can be more than one thing at play at the same time. A worse team can better a better team; a tired team can beat a rested team; a player who is concentrating fiercely can lose to a player who is not trying.

None of that suggests, let alone proves, that talent, fatigue and concentration don't exist.

One of the biggest problems with stats, is its limitations. Just because you can't see the effects of something in the stats, does not mean it isn't there. Just because the standard error is expected to be zero, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Just because the averages wash out the randomness in the aggregate, doesn't mean that luck doesn't exist.

That’s the point. Luck is a major factor in hockey.

If you’re so convinced that rest matters, quantify it.

[dammage79]

If human factors don't affect statistics, then why isn't everything the same? Why cant any player replicate their production every single season consistently regardless of schedule, teammates, teams they play on. Why cant say Kadris linemates produce at the same clips as any other line mates he may have had over his career?

It's just an inquantifiable fact that chemistry, teams, age, fitness and mental acuity are all factors in whether or not any single player can produce equally, worse or better than their previous years efforts. It's the same in any team sports.

There's an infinite amount of probabilities. Heck there's 49 numbers in lotto 6/49 and what are the odds of replicating the same numbers twice? 1 in 53 million or something?

And those are based on set numerical values let alone 1000s of different aged human with varying degrees of talent and skill in one leagues and 32 teams.

No team is the same, no player is the same.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by dammage79

If human factors don't affect statistics, then why isn't everything the same? Why cant any player replicate their production every single season consistently regardless of schedule, teammates, teams they play on. Why cant say Kadris linemates produce at the same clips as any other line mates he may have had over his career?

It's just an inquantifiable fact that chemistry, teams, age, fitness and mental acuity are all factors in whether or not any single player can produce equally, worse or better than their previous years efforts. It's the same in any team sports.

There's an infinite amount of probabilities. Heck there's 49 numbers in lotto 6/49 and what are the odds of replicating the same numbers twice? 1 in 53 million or something?

And those are based on set numerical values let alone 1000s of different aged human with varying degrees of talent and skill in one leagues and 32 teams.

No team is the same, no player is the same.

Random variation. Why would you assume rest matters more than having players born on a Wednesday? Quantify it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Random variation. Why would you assume rest matters more than having players born on a Wednesday? Quantify it.

You quantify that there is no difference.

[Enoch Root]

I have already explained that stats can't quantify everything. You are going to need to convince us that it can, and that you are right that these things don't exist and are all just random variation.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Random variation. Why would you assume rest matters more than having players born on a Wednesday? Quantify it.

I literally just said you can't. But it matters regardless of your position on the matter.

[MegaErtz]

We've only won two of the last seven games, and it feels as though the wheels are starting to come off.