The Tariff Thread

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Sure, but at the same time I don't see Trump as being the type that's able to keep his real intentions under wraps if there was a specific ulterior motive that required such outlandish smoke and mirrors.

I think there's an equally good chance that he's doing things for the sake of doing them and running with narratives he made up or heard from someone in his inner circle and is finding out the consequences along the way.

We may be overestimating the method to the madness.

I do believe his real intentions are to reduce the US trade deficit. I listened to a speech about three weeks ago from a guy that was formerly chief of staff for McConnell and still works in DC. He stated that there was widespread consensus on both sides of the aisle that globalisation has not been an overall positive for the average American worker. And so there is this general sentiment to bring jobs back to the US. Which is hard for me to really understand since the unemployment rate is so low. People have jobs. But that's what he said.

Anyway tariffs would at some point bring some jobs back, but not to the overall benefit of the economy or the average American IMO.

But for the sake or argument let's say that tariffs in the long run would help America (not my view). Trump does not have the discipline to follow through on a policy that would cause such short term pain and economic disruption. He does not have the spine for it. At the heart of it, he is a populist, self interested politician who does not stand on principle.

Which is why today's result was relatively predictable.

He will rattle his sabre. Make threats and take some actions to be sure but long term conviction is not his thing. So Canadian and Mexican leaders just need to tread carefully and play the game wisely.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by opendoor

No they're not. There is no current ranking I'm aware of that has Italy above Canada in GDP per capita.

And the only reason they're even close to Canada in any rankings is because of PPP adjustments. Because Italy is a place that has had a declining population for over 10 years now, some things like real estate are quite cheap. But having a declining population is not a good thing for a country or an economy. In terms of actual GDP per capita, Canada is about 35-40% higher than Italy.

The one I just quoted? Here's the link, if it's fake then you can tell me. It's on slide 3 about 2/5 of the way down the page.

https://www.ft.com/content/b8b59846-...3-d0dda791c06b

Edit: It may be paywalled. In that case, just search for "Canada, Trump and the new world order" by Michael Ignatieff and it should work from a search engine link.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GGG

The sum of all financial inflows and outflow of a country balances to zero otherwise currencies adjust to make it zero. This is true across all trading partners not each specific one.

Toombes alludes to this affect

That is double entry accounting since imports and exports result in corresponding capital outflows and inflows. It doesn't mean that you can dismiss trade deficits and surpluses, it's more about what you believe is optimal.

Your guy Tombe (I've never heard of him but he sure seems to know more about economics than I do) wants a stronger Canadian economy which he argues results in a trade deficit which then solves the problem with Trump.

So he says deregulate and stimulate. Of course he only has to write an article about it. Not figure out how to do it.

[RogerWilco]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You sound exactly like this individual. Be proud, I suppose.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1886101457495109669

She has obviously never had a Canadian made Oreo.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You sound exactly like this individual. Be proud, I suppose.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1886101457495109669

It was a jest, but other than food stuff, I can't even think of a US product I buy. I guess the appliances tend to be better than those from overseas, if mostly because you can get parts for them.

[Looch City]

CAD is back up to where it was at 0.69. Stonks are basically back up too.

A giant nothing burger.

We will rebuild.

Canada as we know it is basically over.

[KTrain]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

It was a jest, but other than food stuff, I can't even think of a US product I buy. I guess the appliances tend to be better than those from overseas, if mostly because you can get parts for them.

Other than food, I can't think of any MADE in America products I purchase. Lots that are produced/imported by American companies. Apple is technically an American company but is any of their stuff actually made in America?

My made in America purchases seem to be all digital/entertainment based.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by KTrain

Other than food, I can't think of any MADE in America products I purchase. Lots that are produced/imported by American companies. Apple is technically an American company but is any of their stuff actually made in America?

My made in America purchases seem to be all digital/entertainment based.

The only thing I know off the top of my head that is made in America that I buy are various Milwaukee blades/drill bits.

[Drak]

I've been buying Diablo Blades (Italy) and Metabo tools.

[flylock shox]

I was thinking that maybe this tariff thing - or the timing of it - was largely a shiny ball distraction from the steps Trump is taking to dismantle government and entrench authoritarianism in the US. That would be a fairly classic Putin move, but then again Trump has not been shy about doing bad things openly in the past. Still, Musk's move to take control of Treasury information yesterday was the biggest thing that actually did happen and I think generally got second billing to the trade war.

In addition to no longer being complacent on matters of trade - which was and remains the most urgent individual crisis - Canadians and Canada as a whole are going to have to figure out how we survive alongside a non-democratic and increasingly fascist USA. They are moving so fast that country won't be recognizable at the federal level in another month.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Maybe we should ask India, Venezuela, and Korea who lead the world with their refining facilities conveniently located right on their respective coasts.

We don't need more refineries in North America, let alone Canada. We have plenty to satisfy our refined products (gasoline, diesel, jet) demand. So much so that we've been shuttering them over the past decades are likely to shutter more in the coming decades of potential gasoline demand destruction.

Those places (the new Indian and Chinese super refineries in particular) are building them to satisfy growing demand in the region from population growth and standard of living growth.

It doesn't make sense for us to spend tens of billions on refineries to chop our oil molecules into smaller batches of products molecules to ship over there. Save all that capital and just ship them the oil.

[Harry Lime]

Late to the Fentynol Tsar talk, but the one thing that will make it all okay for Canadians, is if we make them wear a really rad, pimping uniform.

Something out of the Chappelle's Haters Ball.

That would be awesome to see them stand side by side at media availabilities with their US counterpart.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I do believe his real intentions are to reduce the US trade deficit.

Spoiler!

I listened to a speech about three weeks ago from a guy that was formerly chief of staff for McConnell and still works in DC. He stated that there was widespread consensus on both sides of the aisle that globalisation has not been an overall positive for the average American worker. And so there is this general sentiment to bring jobs back to the US. Which is hard for me to really understand since the unemployment rate is so low. People have jobs. But that's what he said.

Anyway tariffs would at some point bring some jobs back, but not to the overall benefit of the economy or the average American IMO.

But for the sake or argument let's say that tariffs in the long run would help America (not my view). Trump does not have the discipline to follow through on a policy that would cause such short term pain and economic disruption. He does not have the spine for it. At the heart of it, he is a populist, self interested politician who does not stand on principle.

Which is why today's result was relatively predictable.

He will rattle his sabre. Make threats and take some actions to be sure but long term conviction is not his thing. So Canadian and Mexican leaders just need to tread carefully and play the game wisely.

I think this is 100% accurate, because he doesn't really understand what a trade deficit is (which is actually a pretty common problem). Because globally the US exports so many services (media, IP, social media, ERPs, consulting...) they are functionally able to consume more goods than they produce, therefor trade deficit. The assumption he is making, is that they can produce what they consume, and export those services, but if other countries don't have stable economies, where are they going to export those services? So the policy is explicitly to reduce the number of accountants and engineers in favor of having more cherry pickers and automobile assemblers.

I think the long game for Canada is to somehow get Trump to understand that Canada actually has a functional trade deficit with the US, the commodities they buy from us they upgrade and re-sell for a profit, if you remove those commodities we actually have a rather large deficit on consumer goods, and if you start to add in services we have a huge deficit. There are 2 real risks here in losing Canada as a market for consumer goods, and losing access to supply of raw material on things that they do manufacture and profit from. Both of those things are good for the US, separate from weather they are good for Canada or not.

*I do appreciate that anything that takes more than 1 sentence to explain is a heavy lift to get Trump to understand, but that is the market position that Canada is in.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Late to the Fentynol Tsar talk, but the one thing that will make it all okay for Canadians, is if we make them wear a really rad, pimping uniform.

Something out of the Chappelle's Haters Ball.

That would be awesome to see them stand side by side at media availabilities with their US counterpart.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Late to the Fentynol Tsar talk, but the one thing that will make it all okay for Canadians, is if we make them wear a really rad, pimping uniform.

Something out of the Chappelle's Haters Ball.

That would be awesome to see them stand side by side at media availabilities with their US counterpart.

The Cape and hat are absolutely mandatory!

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by KTrain

Other than food, I can't think of any MADE in America products I purchase. Lots that are produced/imported by American companies. Apple is technically an American company but is any of their stuff actually made in America?

My made in America purchases seem to be all digital/entertainment based.

They do make some neat ####.

In the past eight years in my company I've bought one piece of equipment for $35k USD and another for $11k USD. On one of those an American dude had to fly up to set it up for us and train my staff on its use.

I think a lot of people in manufacturing in Canada are in the same boat. Lots of specialized equipment we need that is then used to increase Canada's output and employ Canadians is made down there.

[indes]

Okay so tariffs are gone for now and everyone is beating the drum for Canadian purchasing and more financial independence from the US.

Is anyone working on this? I mean here in Alberta it's easy for us to point to oil and say we should get it out east, but what else could be transferred east west? It would be awesome if there was some organization (government or otherwise) looking into our exports/imports province to province to find some overlap. They say not to waste a crisis and I hope we don't. It would be great to look at improving interprovincial trade right now.

It may be easier to ship south right now, but if we actually put the work into creating some east west infrastructure, we could bridge the gap a bit.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Sliver

They do make some neat ####.

In the past eight years in my company I've bought one piece of equipment for $35k USD and another for $11k USD. On one of those an American dude had to fly up to set it up for us and train my staff on its use.

I think a lot of people in manufacturing in Canada are in the same boat. Lots of specialized equipment we need that is then used to increase Canada's output and employ Canadians is made down there.

Ya, when you get into the industrial side, both Canada and the US have good products. But for consumer goods, it seems like it's mostly appliances and vehicles as far as goods go. Loads of services we use though.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Late to the Fentynol Tsar talk, but the one thing that will make it all okay for Canadians, is if we make them wear a really rad, pimping uniform.

Something out of the Chappelle's Haters Ball.

That would be awesome to see them stand side by side at media availabilities with their US counterpart.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by indes

Okay so tariffs are gone for now and everyone is beating the drum for Canadian purchasing and more financial independence from the US.

Is anyone working on this? I mean here in Alberta it's easy for us to point to oil and say we should get it out east, but what else could be transferred east west? It would be awesome if there was some organization (government or otherwise) looking into our exports/imports province to province to find some overlap. They say not to waste a crisis and I hope we don't. It would be great to look at improving interprovincial trade right now.

It may be easier to ship south right now, but if we actually put the work into creating some east west infrastructure, we could bridge the gap a bit.

PP came out yesterday and said that him and his government were going to focus on removing interprovincial trade barriers.

He has four key parts:

- Holding a meeting with Canada's premiers within 30 days of becoming prime minister to discuss removing trade barriers.

- Work on developing a national standard for trucking rules to encourage east-west shipping over north-south shipping.

- Create a professional qualification recognized in all provinces that would allow doctors, nurses and engineers to work anywhere in the country.

- Offering a "free trade bonus" to provinces who drop trade barriers. Poilievre said the bonus would be funded out of the revenues realized by increased trade activity that takes place once trade barriers are dropped.