American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[direwolf]

The orange goblin changing his mind again? This whole thing is just f'n ridiculous.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/n...arch-1-sources

Sources tell Reuters there could be a process for Canada, Mexico to seek specific exemptions for some imports

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce new tariffs against Canada and Mexico that will begin on March 1, but will include a process for the countries to seek specific exemptions for certain imports, three people familiar with the planning told Reuters.

The tariff situation remained fluid on Friday and no decision is final until Trump makes a public announcement.


The sources, who asked not to be named because they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said they did not have details on a final tariff rate, but noted Trump has consistently said that he plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from the two countries on Saturday.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by direwolf

The orange goblin changing his mind again? This whole thing is just f'n ridiculous.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/n...arch-1-sources

That seems like old news. CTV says Tuesday:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/arti...rumps-tariffs/

1:38 p.m. EST: Canada was notified this morning of tariffs
CTV News' chief political correspondent Vassy Kapelos says Canada was notified this morning by the U.S. that China, Mexico and Canada will be subject to tariffs: 25 per cent across the board with the exception of energy, which will be 10 per cent.


It would take effect on Tuesday and would be in place until the fentanyl overdose issue is sorted.

Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and Minister of Finance Dominic LeBlanc and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will announce a Canadian response at 6 p.m. ET tonight.

A senior government source tells CTV News that Ottawa is expecting something formal at 2 p.m. EST. Cabinet is set to meet at 3 p.m. EST.

[Flabbibulin]

That entire march 1 thing was shot down though by the 10 press secretary.

[calgarygeologist]

Rosie Barton on CBC claims that experts are saying that Canada will be plunged into a deep recession in six months if the tariffs last and one million jobs will be lost in that time.

[SutterBrother]

A shame that people (and especially the media) are pretending Trump is a normal rational person, and that actions or discussion are going to affect his thinking.

He’s an empty windbag with no brain. But he is an attention whore.

There are going to be at least 4 years of this lunacy. Settle in a and wait for the actual policy to be put in writing. Until then it’s like reading Twitter.

It’s not true and it doesn’t matter.

[opendoor]

I think the only real hope is that he becomes so unpopular that he's a political liability for swing state Republicans and there's some legislative pushback.

And that's not too far fetched. His net approval rating at his inauguration was the lowest in modern history and he's the only President since approval polling began to ever have a negative approval rating at this point (Biden was 2nd lowest at +20 at this point in his tenure).

[Azure]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I think the only real hope is that he becomes so unpopular that he's a political liability for swing state Republicans and there's some legislative pushback.

And that's not too far fetched. His net approval rating at his inauguration was the lowest in modern history and he's the only President since approval polling began to ever have a negative approval rating at this point (Biden was 2nd lowest at +20 at this point in his tenure).

Doesn't change anything for at least 2 years and by that time the Canadian economy is not doing very well.

If there is any truth to the fentanyl stuff, and knowing of course that tomorrow they could say something else, pretty sure Canada could move pretty fast on being more aggressive in dealing with it. The problem is that the goal posts will be moved again tomorrow.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Azure

Doesn't change anything for at least 2 years and by that time the Canadian economy is not doing very well.

If there is any truth to the fentanyl stuff, and knowing of course that tomorrow they could say something else, pretty sure Canada could move pretty fast on being more aggressive in dealing with it. The problem is that the goal posts will be moved again tomorrow.

And how does Canada prove they have stopped all fentanyl going into the States(or even reduced it?) This is an impossible game. Playing it is dumb. We can pretend, sure. Fentanyl Scanner 7000. Job done. Anything more is deluding ourselves and wasting our time and resources because there is no way to prove effectiveness given the small amounts.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

Doesn't change anything for at least 2 years and by that time the Canadian economy is not doing very well.

If there is any truth to the fentanyl stuff, and knowing of course that tomorrow they could say something else, pretty sure Canada could move pretty fast on being more aggressive in dealing with it. The problem is that the goal posts will be moved again tomorrow.

Stuff can change long before the next election. If Trump has an approval rating in the 30s a couple of months from now, Republicans in blue states who enjoy their cushy jobs in Congress are going to start to get nervous about the blowback affecting them. Same with representatives in regions that will be hit hard by tariffs. Look at what happened from 2017-2019; Republicans had a 50-seat majority in the House, but Trump wasn't able to do a whole lot. Now they have a 4-seat majority.

And that doesn't even get into the fact that a lot of the hardline libertarian members don't necessarily support what he's doing either. Rand Paul has come out against the tariffs, calling them a tax increase on Americans. Right now everyone is showing fealty to Trump coming off his recent election win, but that won't necessarily continue.

[Ped]

THere is no hope that he will listen to other Republicans. the only hope is he will listen to the money people who support him (Musk, Bezos, etc)

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

And how does Canada prove they have stopped all fentanyl going into the States(or even reduced it?) This is an impossible game. Playing it is dumb. We can pretend, sure. Fentanyl Scanner 7000. Job done. Anything more is deluding ourselves and wasting our time and resources because there is no way to prove effectiveness given the small amounts.

exactly correct and so the solution is what I have been saying recently.

Get new customers / partners. Requires ability to get our stuff out of our country. Pretty simple.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Stuff can change long before the next election. If Trump has an approval rating in the 30s a couple of months from now, Republicans in blue states who enjoy their cushy jobs in Congress are going to start to get nervous about the blowback affecting them. Same with representatives in regions that will be hit hard by tariffs. Look at what happened from 2017-2019; Republicans had a 50-seat majority in the House, but Trump wasn't able to do a whole lot. Now they have a 4-seat majority.

And that doesn't even get into the fact that a lot of the hardline libertarian members don't necessarily support what he's doing either. Rand Paul has come out against the tariffs, calling them a tax increase on Americans. Right now everyone is showing fealty to Trump coming off his recent election win, but that won't necessarily continue.

Do you think Trump plans on leaving the White House in 4 years?

[WideReceiver]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Do you think Trump plans on leaving the White House in 4 years?

He’ll have to claw his way through six feet of dirt to run again.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

exactly correct and so the solution is what I have been saying recently.

Get new customers / partners. Requires ability to get our stuff out of our country. Pretty simple.

I agree, in principle, as a long term plan - but moving 600, 000,000 tons of goods to somewhere other than the US is far from simple.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Azure

Doesn't change anything for at least 2 years and by that time the Canadian economy is not doing very well.

If there is any truth to the fentanyl stuff, and knowing of course that tomorrow they could say something else, pretty sure Canada could move pretty fast on being more aggressive in dealing with it. The problem is that the goal posts will be moved again tomorrow.

Steel and aluminum were made subject to high tariffs by previous Trump administration due to 'national security'. It's got nothing to do with fentanyl.

Regarding counter-tariffs, 100% tariffs on Tesla's is a good start.

[BigThief]

Wonder how long until the whispers of no mid term elections happen. Trump, Musk and company aren't going to let their Oligarchy be interrupted by pesky elections.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Steel and aluminum were made subject to high tariffs by previous Trump administration due to 'national security'. It's got nothing to do with fentanyl.

Regarding counter-tariffs, 100% tariffs on Tesla's is a good start.

But but but no gas powered cars by 2035…

Oh well I guess biking in minus 30 isn’t too bad. Our ancestors walked.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I agree, in principle, as a long term plan - but moving 600, 000,000 tons of goods to somewhere other than the US is far from simple.

It's far from simple because Canada has not invested in its infrastructure. Is it easy for US, China, Korea, Mexico, India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, EU, UK? Why?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I agree, in principle, as a long term plan - but moving 600, 000,000 tons of goods to somewhere other than the US is far from simple.

Looks like we should start immediately then.

[Cowboy89]

Trump needs to claim there’s some sort of ‘national emergency’ to use IEEPA which is the legal mechanism required to provide executive powers to levy tariffs swiftly with no review period or congressional approval. Fentanyl is convienenly pretty much the only plausible place where the Venn Diagram overlaps on all three countries he laid tariffs against (it comes from China, the cartel smuggles it through Mexico and Canada and Canada launders the money (see what TD got fined $3 Billion for)).

Therefore the whole Fentanyl thing is a smokescreen to give him emergency powers. So really it’a not about Fentanyl and not going to be rectified by any action on it any time soon. There’s clearly a bigger ask of Canada coming and it’s incumbent of Canadians to figure that out as quickly as possible.

Think of Trump as an autocratic CEO approaching corporate governance in his way of doing what he wants. That’s the exact approach he’s taking in the US government. The stuff he says is more about what he has to say to grant him the emergency powers required to do what he actually wants. So focus less on what he says and more on the impact of what he’s trying to implement in attempt to discover the real motive of his actions.