The Energy Transition and technologies

[MelBridgeman]

Fan Boys are here !

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

Fan Boys are here !

50+ posts today.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The issue is not unique to nuclear technology in my opinion. It's that the West cannot build big things. Just cannot. It's a cultural/skill gap issue that has worsened since the 60's

It's more of an anglosphere issue than simply a West issue.



What makes English speaking countries worse than their funny speaking economic peers is less apparent, but there's definitely a gap.

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

50+ posts today.

Well people keep responding and being the nice chap that I am, I respond back if it's worthwhile.

Don't want to disappoint my fans.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

And yet, it got built. I was responding to this:


That doesn't say we make it harder on ourselves, or more expensive, or take longer. It says we can't. I presented cases where we did. Hence the disagreement. Comprende?

I don’t think it was meant to be taken literally.

It’s just that when we go over budget and late in schedule it means the next one is much tougher to build and you never get to that economy of scale you need.

You essentially need state backing to build these types of mega projects due to how bad we are at them.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Elon builds stuff he can get government handouts for. I'd have to assume there aren't enough government hand outs for nuclear plants to make it worthwhile for him.

Some of your posts are thoughtful, some of your posts are idiotic. This is the latter.

Thanks for derailing this thread

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Elon builds stuff he can get government handouts for. I'd have to assume there aren't enough government hand outs for nuclear plants to make it worthwhile for him.

Nuclear "hand outs" far exceed anything the EV industry and space x get

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Nuclear "hand outs" far exceed anything the EV industry and space x get

Care to expand on this? I suspect I know what you mean, but would like to offer that if the state demands camping on the use of a certain technology, you're going to see a consequence of "future involvement" if you want it to continue to be a thing.

I do agree with you about major projects (~ >1B) being vulnerable to manipulation, and nuclear related projects especially so. I think it's as true in the west as anywhere else, given how projects happen.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by SeeGeeWhy

Care to expand on this? I suspect I know what you mean, but would like to offer that if the state demands camping on the use of a certain technology, you're going to see a consequence of "future involvement" if you want it to continue to be a thing.



I do agree with you about major projects (~ >1B) being vulnerable to manipulation, and nuclear related projects especially so. I think it's as true in the west as anywhere else, given how projects happen.

I didn't mean it perjoratively, just that if the only reason Musk didn't do nuclear was because he was only after government incentives ("hand outs"), nuclear would be a great option. Any non-carbon emitting generation would be getting subsidies and that's reasonable and fine.

As for "subsidies" if you look at the billions added to rate payers bills, local, State, and Federal loans, land, tax credits, and direct money and the rest, I'm certain it is a lot more than what Tesla and space X get.

[Street Pharmacist]

So, is the great "data centers will double our electricity needs!" another boy who cried wolf?

In the late 90's and early 2000's a new technology called the internet caused much wringing of hands due to an expected explosion of power demand. Crazy statements like "a lump of coal is burned for every book ordered from Amazon". The next thing that happened was innovation that drove efficiency way, way up and the demand increase was never seen. In 2006 days center demand was 1.5% of total electricity demand. By 2014 out was 1.8% and hovers now around 2%.

When the AI hype started, there was a bunch more hand wringing by some in the industry. Now we see deep seek using software to decrease energy demand by 95% and Nvidia announcing a chip that decreased energy demand by 25x. Is this another episode of crying wolf?

[Street Pharmacist]

Aaaaaaand another nuclear cost explosion:

Unit 3 at the Flamanville Plant in France started construction in 2007 with a cost estimate of €3.3B. Almost 20 years later and it's still not operational and has a cost estimate of €23.7B.

The French Court of Auditors asserts that to reach a 4% profit the minimum seeing price would have to be €138/MWh, which is higher than the target negotiated between the developers (EDF) and the government at €70/MWh.

Reminder, France had to re-nationalize the energy company after the 2022 energy crisis mixed with a lot of Reactors being down meant that EDF would be wiped out. It has since cost their tax payers tens of billions to keep afloat.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Aaaaaaand another nuclear cost explosion:

Unit 3 at the Flamanville Plant in France started construction in 2007 with a cost estimate of €3.3B. Almost 20 years later and it's still not operational and has a cost estimate of €23.7B.

The French Court of Auditors asserts that to reach a 4% profit the minimum seeing price would have to be €138/MWh, which is higher than the target negotiated between the developers (EDF) and the government at €70/MWh.

Reminder, France had to re-nationalize the energy company after the 2022 energy crisis mixed with a lot of Reactors being down meant that EDF would be wiped out. It has since cost their tax payers tens of billions to keep afloat.

Maybe this is splitting atoms but Flamanville 3 is operational in the sense that it is connected to the grid and has supplied power. It isn't fully powered up though because that takes many months to get to 100%.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Maybe this is splitting atoms but Flamanville 3 is operational in the sense that it is connected to the grid and has supplied power. It isn't fully powered up though because that takes many months to get to 100%.

Good point that I had missed. It was connected to the grid a month ago, so still almost 20 years

[woob]

As someone not well versed in Nuclear power plant building, is 20 years the norm for completion and operational startup of a plant??

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

So, is the great "data centers will double our electricity needs!" another boy who cried wolf?

No. The world will be compute constrained for several years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by woob

As someone not well versed in Nuclear power plant building, is 20 years the norm for completion and operational startup of a plant??

I don't think there really is a norm because it seems like most of these projects go off the rails for various reasons. Half a dozen years should probably be the norm if a project is run properly. With this one in France the original operator building found that they were in over their heads and this caused a massive delay and some rework due to ####ty construction.

[Geraldsh]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

No. The world will be compute constrained for several years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

I find it ironic that Jevon’s paradox was developed in regards to the use of coal and now we are burning more coal to power more efficient computers.

[Nancy]

Originally Posted by woob

As someone not well versed in Nuclear power plant building, is 20 years the norm for completion and operational startup of a plant??

About double the normal timeline, but the cost is on par:

• Astravets, Belarus - 11 years from ground breaking to commercial operation in 2021, est. US$23B, 1,110 MWe.
  
• Barakah, UAE - 10 years from ground breaking to commercial operation in 2021, US$32B, 4035MWe
  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...power_stations

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Geraldsh

I find it ironic that Jevon’s paradox was developed in regards to the use of coal and now we are burning more coal to power more efficient computers.

Ironic, no. Prescient, yes.

[calgarygeologist]

This is surprising news because it seemed like an interesting project but that big solar field outside of Las Vegas will be decommissioned. I've driven past this quite a few times when driving between Vegas and Palm Springs/LA and I've always been really intrigued by it.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/13/clima...ing/index.html