Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[dino7c]

The LA game at the end could mean nothing for them...probably likely. That reschedule might help the Flames vs. the back to back scenario they were in.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

Actually, those games in hand are as follows:

January 30 vs. Anaheim;
April 3 vs. Anaheim; and
(for the 3rd game in hand vis a vis Colorado): April 9 vs. Anaheim...

Why are those the games in hand, and not the next three games on the schedule?

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Why is Pissy listed as a #1?

Oops typo. 1st in scoring but draft 3rd. I will change that.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Why are those the games in hand, and not the next three games on the schedule?

I was simply trying to illustrate that the "games in hand" could arguably be any game on the schedule.

If we are comparing to the Avs, as at the end of January we will still have three games in hand, so it should not be the next three games.

If we are comparing to the Blues, we will still have two games in hand as at Jan. 31, so again, not the next three games.

If we move it out to Feb. 21, being the end of the 4-Nations break, as compared to the Avs we will have 2 games in hand, and as to the Blues we will have 1 game in hand.

During that time we play 6 at home and 1 on the road;
Avs play 2 and home and 4 on the road;
Blues play 4 at home and 2 on the road.

So there is no reason to state the "games in hand" are necessarily the next 2 or 3, but any 1 of those 7 is one of the games in hand we will play as compared to those two teams...

Interestingly enough, we then gain another game on both those teams coming right out of the break, as they each have a back-to-back the first weekend (Blues host Jets and Avs, and Avs are in Nash. and StL.) putting us back to 2 and 3 games in hand respectively.

All three teams then play 2 more to close out February, so at the end of February we will still have 3 and 2 games in hand vs. Avs and Blues, again respectively.

Avs and Blues each have 7 games in April, while we have 9, including the Kings make-up game.

Our last 9 games are:
Utah, Ducks, Knights, Sharks, Ducks, Wild, Sharks, Knights and Kings, with no back to backs (although the Utah game is the 2nd half of a back-to-back coming from Colorado)...

It is quite arguable the games in hand are the Sharks, Knights and Kings...

Edit to add: I could try the same analysis vis a vis Boston (currently 3 games in hand), Ottawa (currently 2) Columbus (currently 2), Habs (currently 1), and Rags (currently 1), but that took quite a while to compare, and I gotta get back to work...

[EDMONTONisNG]

The flames will make the playoffs if Vancouver decides to stay in decision paralysis mode. It's as simple as that.

I do think a significant change to the nucks will light some sort of fire under their asses

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by EDMONTONisNG

The flames will make the playoffs if Vancouver decides to stay in decision paralysis mode. It's as simple as that.

I do think a significant change to the nucks will light some sort of fire under their asses

I wonder if Tocchet’s shelf life has come and gone.

[Sylvanfan]

I did some projections based on each teams remaining schedule, their home or road winning percentage to date, their opponents home or road winning percentage and the average number of points being awarded per game played in the league.

I have Calgary projected at 91.3 points finishing 8th and Vancouver finishing 9th at 89.6 after tonight's game. Colorado projects to 95.6, Minnesota to 97.5. Kings project at 99 due to their home record and number of home games left. Utah and St.Louis are 83.3 and 82.

Obviously a flawed method, but it does account for points at the time of last game plus dynamic values for other teams based on their results to date and how teams have been at home vs on the road. For example Winnipeg being a strong home team vs Calgary being a weak road team last night had the Jets with a 1.32 expected points to the Flames 0.78. If both teams were .500 point percentage each team would have 1.05 projected points.

In the last 7 games this expected the Flames to get 7.05 points, they actually got 8. In the next 8 it currently projects 9.55. I'll see how close this ends up coming.

I have average game awarding 2.1 points so far. Eerily close to 1 in 10 games going to OT this year.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

I was simply trying to illustrate that the "games in hand" could arguably be any game on the schedule.

That is a fun exercise but picking specific games doesn't really prove a point. You could pick the easiest opponents and someone else could pick the hardest...

In the end, having games in hand gives a team more opportunities to win games and earn points than the other team. But to compare the two you need to compare games in hand as well as how difficult their respective remaining schedules are.

Using the fun Tankathon website I learned about earlier in this thread, and assuming I am reading it right, the data suggests this:
- Flames have 34 games remaining and the 12th hardest schedule out of all of the teams.
- The Canucks have 33 games remaining and the 19th hardest schedule
- Blues are sitting at 31 games remaining with the 17th hardest schedule
- Avs only have 31 games remaining but they have the 29th hardest (4th easiest) schedule remaining
- Kings have 35 games remaining and the 14th hardest remaining schedule
Note: Oilers, Leafs, and Preds are the 3 easier schedules than the Avs

The Flames have the hardest schedule of the Western bubble teams. Not only is the competition tougher but we still have our big, ugly, 6 game road trip leading up to the trade deadline. (Our road record is noticeably worse than our home record)

If everything goes by the numbers one could suggest some ideas:
- It will be hard to catch the Avs because of their easy schedule compared to our hard schedule.
- The Canucks would be the biggest threat to our playoff spot because they have similar games remaining and an easier schedule (also, the Canucks stomped on the Blues tonight) but hopefully their drama keeps tripping them up.
- Catching LA might be more likely than catching the Avs but they do have a game in hand and a slightly easier schedule than the Flames.

That would be how I look at the games in hand conversation.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Wolven

That is a fun exercise but picking specific games doesn't really prove a point. You could pick the easiest opponents and someone else could pick the hardest...

In the end, having games in hand gives a team more opportunities to win games and earn points than the other team. But to compare the two you need to compare games in hand as well as how difficult their respective remaining schedules are.

Using the fun Tankathon website I learned about earlier in this thread, and assuming I am reading it right, the data suggests this:
- Flames have 34 games remaining and the 12th hardest schedule out of all of the teams.
- The Canucks have 33 games remaining and the 19th hardest schedule
- Blues are sitting at 31 games remaining with the 17th hardest schedule
- Avs only have 31 games remaining but they have the 29th hardest (4th easiest) schedule remaining
- Kings have 35 games remaining and the 14th hardest remaining schedule
Note: Oilers, Leafs, and Preds are the 3 easier schedules than the Avs

The Flames have the hardest schedule of the Western bubble teams. Not only is the competition tougher but we still have our big, ugly, 6 game road trip leading up to the trade deadline. (Our road record is noticeably worse than our home record)

If everything goes by the numbers one could suggest some ideas:
- It will be hard to catch the Avs because of their easy schedule compared to our hard schedule.
- The Canucks would be the biggest threat to our playoff spot because they have similar games remaining and an easier schedule (also, the Canucks stomped on the Blues tonight) but hopefully their drama keeps tripping them up.
- Catching LA might be more likely than catching the Avs but they do have a game in hand and a slightly easier schedule than the Flames.

That would be how I look at the games in hand conversation.

I was originally responding to a post suggesting the games in hand were on the road against playoff teams. To show that made no sense I decided to randomly pick three Ducks games, which is arguably equally as valid.

I then did the actual analysis of when we no longer would have games in hand.

The truest version would be to compare each actual opponent, which this appears to be closer to doing.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

I was originally responding to a post suggesting the games in hand were on the road against playoff teams. To show that made no sense I decided to randomly pick three Ducks games, which is arguably equally as valid.

I then did the actual analysis of when we no longer would have games in hand.

The truest version would be to compare each actual opponent, which this appears to be closer to doing.

At the time of that post, the Flames had more road games in their remaining schedule than home games. Also, we have more outstanding games against playoff teams against non-playoff teams. Thus, I was pointing out that with more outstanding road games, against stronger teams, and a significantly worse road record than home record, that games in hand have a less value.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Made me curious as to the amount of cup winners in the lot, so players with a cup are bolded. 23 cup winners on the list. 8 were drafted in the top 10. One of those was Seguin, so you could debate his impact as a rookie on the Bruins cup team. Either way, with him included less that half of the players on the list were drafted top 10. There is talent outside of the top ten that can help a team win a cup. It is not top 10 or bust.

8 players drafted in the top 10
9 players drafted in the first round outside the top 10
6 players drafted outside the 1st round

Note also that a few of those high drafted guys weren't playing for their draft team when they won a cup: Eichel, Tkachuk, Reinhart. Others like Stone and Burkaovsky as well of course.

Note: Rob Thomas is like Seguin - rookie cup winner.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I don't think this team needs to talk about doing more to try to intentionally tank. Either they will continue to defy expectations and hold off the Blues and Canucks from passing them or they will lose games that are one the road and/or to the playoff contenders.

This is how I look at the schedule leading up to the trade deadline.

Expected Wins: Sabres (H), Ducks (H), Sharks (H)
Likely Wins: Red Wings (H), Kraken (H)
Likely Losses: Kraken (A), Flyers (A)
Expected Losses: Wild (A), Jets (A), Caps (H), Leafs (H), Avs (H), Caps (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

The X factor to this list is determining which games Wolf will play. Maybe he can move a bunch of those games into the win column... but I think these are safe and objective expectations for the upcoming schedule.

Now the schedule is even split between home and road games and we are about to have a pile of home games (7 of the next 8 games are at home). The team needs to capitalize on these home stands, even with the tough competition. In this string of home games, I expect we'll see a lot of Wolf but I doubt he gets all 7 games. It'll be interesting to see how the goalies are deployed.

Update to my schedule prediction heading into the trade deadline:

Expected Wins: Ducks (H), Sharks (H)
Likely Wins: Red Wings (H), Kraken (H)
Likely Losses: Kraken (A), Flyers (A)
Expected Losses: Capitals (H), Leafs (H), Avalanche (H), Capitals (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*,
Confirmed Losses: Jets (A),

*Defied expectation

[jg13]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1884118534432907404

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Note also that a few of those high drafted guys weren't playing for their draft team when they won a cup: Eichel, Tkachuk, Reinhart. Others like Stone and Burkaovsky as well of course.

Note: Rob Thomas is like Seguin - rookie cup winner.

To your point. I only started at 2010, but in the almost 15 year there has only been 2 teams that have drafted and developed a top 5 pick that went on to win a cup. Colorado and Florida. Florida had a bunch of higher picks traded to them to help.

Although I bet if you did this exercise going back another 5 years I think you would find twice as many teams with players from 2005-2009 (off the top of my head Washington, Pittsburgh, LA, and Chicago). Curious if that is more of an indication of the cap world back then (crazy long contracts) and maybe analytics or approach drafting is creating a bit more parity. I find it interesting that draft spanning a handful for years after the lock out is what is really driving the burn it to the foundation. Didn't work for Buffalo and we will hopefully see Edmonton fall flat. Those 2 were probably the biggest culprits of the forced/debacle of monumental proportions tank jobs.

[Jason14h]

Buffalo would be elite if they stopped trading all their stars !

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Robbob

To your point. I only started at 2010, but in the almost 15 year there has only been 2 teams that have drafted and developed a top 5 pick that went on to win a cup. Colorado and Florida. Florida had a bunch of higher picks traded to them to help.

Although I bet if you did this exercise going back another 5 years I think you would find twice as many teams with players from 2005-2009 (off the top of my head Washington, Pittsburgh, LA, and Chicago). Curious if that is more of an indication of the cap world back then (crazy long contracts) and maybe analytics or approach drafting is creating a bit more parity. I find it interesting that draft spanning a handful for years after the lock out is what is really driving the burn it to the foundation. Didn't work for Buffalo and we will hopefully see Edmonton fall flat. Those 2 were probably the biggest culprits of the forced/debacle of monumental proportions tank jobs.

Tampa Bay. St. Louis. Chicago. La Pittsburgh that’s 11 cups right there.

[Robbob]

That is kind of what I am getting that. Those teams won in a stretch from 2009 to 2020. Tampa won near the end of that stretch and it had more to do with Kucherov and Point than Stamkos. Prior to Tampa going back to back, you have a few teams that were able to draft develop and win. Off the top of my head only LA didn't benefit from a 8 plus year contract, but I could be wrong on that.

If I have some time maybe I will do the same thing but do the top 10 scoring in playoffs. At the end of the day, that is what can swing a series.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Robbob

That is kind of what I am getting that. Those teams won in a stretch from 2009 to 2020. Tampa won near the end of that stretch and it had more to do with Kucherov and Point than Stamkos. Prior to Tampa going back to back, you have a few teams that were able to draft develop and win. Off the top of my head only LA didn't benefit from a 8 plus year contract, but I could be wrong on that.

If I have some time maybe I will do the same thing but do the top 10 scoring in playoffs. At the end of the day, that is what can swing a series.

What about Hedman ?

[Robbob]

Kucherov (34)and Point (33) were 1st and 2nd in points. And again the following year Kucherov 33 and Point 23. Vasilesky won the con smythe. They drove the bus.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Hedman had 22 18 and 19 points and played over 25 minutes a night against the best players. Let’s not discount his contributions to the team.