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Old 01-25-2025, 11:40 AM   #321
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Originally Posted by Iniggywetrust View Post
At first this makes no sense for the Blackhawks but I wonder how much of this deal was them wanting their own 3rd round back in order to facilitate an offer sheet in the summer.

With top defensemen like Hughes, Dobson, and (yuck) Bouchard, not to mention Center Wyatt Johnston all coming up as RFAs and the offer sheet door squeaked open by Armstrong in St. Louis, there may be an appetite for go big game RFA hunting for Chicago.
By the time they can offer anybody an offer sheet the draft will be over. So, none of this deal was about that.
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Old 01-25-2025, 11:43 AM   #322
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We have one exception to the rule (rule being, do it more than once): Gretzky

Even Crosby only has one
If your threshold is 100 points we will have another this year, Kucherov will have his two best seasons past the age of 20.

There are 38 players in league history that have had 3 or more 100 points seasons (presumably the bar for getting 2 in your 30’s because you would theoretically need to have one in your 20’s). M

McDavid and Draisaitl have not had the opportunity to do it, dropping your denominator to 36. Bossy and Orr never played in there 30’s so I think it is reasonable to remove them. Brings the denominator down to 34.

Mario, Wayne, Dionne, Esposito, Sakic, Francis, Kucherov and Crosby have done it. So 8/34 have had at least 2 seasons where they got 100 points when they were 30 or older.

Last edited by Aarongavey; 01-25-2025 at 11:56 AM.
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Old 01-25-2025, 11:56 AM   #323
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Bergeron would be an exception as well, he produced better in his 30’s. Stamkos had his best PPG season at the age of 32. Which players are the example of the rule?

Kopitar’s best season was

Age 30 - best season 1.12 PPG

There is literally no difference between his PPG average in his 20’s and now. In fact this season his PPG average at the age 37 is higher than it was in his 20’s.

I think we are up to 8 or 9 exceptions to the rule, I am curious which elite first line forwards are the rule.
PPG means less when you fail to compare it to the average goals per game as well and the PPG among top line players. It wasn't that long ago where Jamie Benn won the Art Ross scoring less than 90 points and very few players topped 100 points. The goals per game has increased from 2.65 per team per game to 3.14.

Elite players are still elite in their 30s but their numbers are potentially inflated due to the game changing as well. Also the NHL has done a better job of protecting their stars, no matter what the Oilers fans think about holding not being called, so they are injured less, relative to an era that saw players like Kariya, Lindros, LaFontaine, Savard, and others retire early or saw their productiveness take a massive hit due to concussions and headshots.
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Old 01-25-2025, 12:02 PM   #324
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If your threshold is 100 points we will have another this year, Kucherov will have his two best seasons past the age of 20.

There are 38 players in league history that have had 3 or more 100 points seasons (presumably the bar for getting 2 in your 30’s because you would theoretically need to have one in your 20’s). M

McDavid and Draisaitl have not had the opportunity to do it, dropping your denominator to 36. Bossy and Orr never played in there 30’s so I think it is reasonable to remove them. Brings the denominator down to 34.

Mario, Wayne, Dionne, Esposito, Sakic, Francis, Kucherov and Crosby have done it. So 8/34 have had at least 2 seasons where they got 100 points when they were 30 or older.
Why is reasonable to remove injured players? Perhaps those in their 30s may be more susceptible to injury than those in their 20s?
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Old 01-25-2025, 12:06 PM   #325
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Necas seems like he will fit in this style with the Avs. They are off but that should come with more time.
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Old 01-25-2025, 12:12 PM   #326
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If your threshold is 100 points we will have another this year, Kucherov will have his two best seasons past the age of 20.

There are 38 players in league history that have had 3 or more 100 points seasons (presumably the bar for getting 2 in your 30’s because you would theoretically need to have one in your 20’s). M

McDavid and Draisaitl have not had the opportunity to do it, dropping your denominator to 36. Bossy and Orr never played in there 30’s so I think it is reasonable to remove them. Brings the denominator down to 34.

Mario, Wayne, Dionne, Esposito, Sakic, Francis, Kucherov and Crosby have done it. So 8/34 have had at least 2 seasons where they got 100 points when they were 30 or older.
And for pretty much every one of the 8, one of the 2 was the year they were 30
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Old 01-25-2025, 12:15 PM   #327
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Why is reasonable to remove injured players? Perhaps those in their 30s may be more susceptible to injury than those in their 20s?
When you sign a player in their 30s, injuries are part of the equation - they are taking up cap space, whether they are playing or not. I don't think there's any doubt that players sustain more injuries in their 30s than their 20s. They're older, and they're worn down.

So yes, injuries should definitely not be removed from the equation.
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Old 01-25-2025, 12:16 PM   #328
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Although I think it’s a smart move by the Avs if they weren’t going to sign Rantanen long term, I do feel they are downgrading overall with this move. Which I’m not a big fan of because I want them to be an another team in the playoffs that can stop the Oilers from coming out of the west. Vancouver at this point is no longer a real threat for that so the biggest threat to the oilers in the West is likely Vegas.
The biggest threat will be Wolf.
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Old 01-25-2025, 12:39 PM   #329
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The biggest threat will be Wolf.
Maybe in 2-3 years. This year’s flames aren’t threatening much more than a wild card spot.
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Old 01-25-2025, 12:42 PM   #330
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Why is reasonable to remove injured players? Perhaps those in their 30s may be more susceptible to injury than those in their 20s?
Well those players got injured in their 20’s so maybe players in their 20’s are more susceptible to injuries?
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Old 01-25-2025, 12:44 PM   #331
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We looked at this in the Draisaitl signing thread. I'll see if I can find it.
Did you find the list for the rule that elite players drop off in their 30’s?
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Old 01-25-2025, 12:49 PM   #332
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Did you find the list for the rule that elite players drop off in their 30’s?
I linked it in post 319.

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Old 01-25-2025, 01:11 PM   #333
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I wonder if Necas will be given a long look at the #2C position, rather than playing on MacKinnon's line? Maybe they see how he does there before making another move to try and solidify their top 6.
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Old 01-25-2025, 01:23 PM   #334
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Trade makes sense for all 3.

Carolina is definitely more cup desperate than Colorado, so I can see why they’d go for a superstar rental (and heck, might be able to re-sign him).

Colorado gets more cost controlled assets and depth.

And for Chicago, getting their third round pick back (arguably a 2nd round and a half pick given how high it will be) for Hall is a good get. Any time you can trade a rental for picks ahead of the deadline, you take it.
This might be irrational hatred, but this phrase drives me nuts.
It’s not arguably anything except what it is: a 3rd round pick.
It’s an early 3rd round pick for sure, but it’s simply a 3rd round pick.

/end rant.
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Old 01-25-2025, 01:41 PM   #335
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Old 01-25-2025, 02:00 PM   #336
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Carolina will be better but it's also a gamble on the 25 playoffs because if they're eliminated and rantanen has his sights set on another destination then you create a hole beyond this year.

Do the canes have the cap to give him a draisaitl extension?
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Old 01-25-2025, 02:09 PM   #337
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Do the canes have the cap to give him a draisaitl extension?

Yep, even if they have to pay him 14M.
Orlov (7.75M) + Burns (5.28M) + Hall (6.0M) will be gone (are UFAs) and Necas (6.5M) was traded
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Old 01-25-2025, 02:15 PM   #338
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"I think it was just a tough business decision here for us," MacFarland said Saturday before the Avalanche faced the Boston Bruins. "I felt that the pieces we got made sense to strike now."

"It hurts, right. He's a home-grown talent. He's a superstar person, he's a superstar human being," he said. "I think that's sports, right. We're going talk about it, people are going to talk about it. Your heart strings get tugged. That's why we all do this.

"I'd be lying, I'm like that. He's that good of a hockey player. ... He had the UFA card and we felt this is what we had to do."

"You lose a superstar and we're going to have to try and replace him in the aggregate - fifty-goal scorers don't grow on trees," MacFarland said. "You have to usually draft and develop them. Mikko was a home run for us for many, many years."

"You feel that you do what's best for the logo and best for the team," MacFarland said.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...iness-decision
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Old 01-25-2025, 02:22 PM   #339
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I hope that the Flames are looking at this and reminding themselves that if Colorado can make a decision this tough, in the middle of their cup window, then surely the Flames, who are 'focused on the long term' can have the backbone to make similar decisions.
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Old 01-25-2025, 02:32 PM   #340
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I hope that the Flames are looking at this and reminding themselves that if Colorado can make a decision this tough, in the middle of their cup window, then surely the Flames, who are 'focused on the long term' can have the backbone to make similar decisions.
The backbone to move a guy that is going to be a UFA and they will not be able to sign? I think that Conroy has already shown that backbone. It is not like Rantanen was traded three years ago, he was traded because the Avs were not going to be able to sign him.

The Flames should try to move guys in similar spots on this team (Kuzmenko, Barrie, Rooney, Hanley, Vladar) and I am sure they will move some of those guys.
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