Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Of course teams can and will change places in the standings if they maintain the same points percentage. Some teams are behind in the standings ONLY because they have games in hand……..

That is the crux of this misunderstanding I read this in the original post

“If we look at the flames current points percentage (0.567) and apply that same points percentage to the remainder of available points to be had in the season…..”

And assumed the poster meant, if we apply the current points percentages to the remaining games, how would the standings change?

It appears Enoch assumed it meant, if the current points percentage don’t change, will it change?


The dumb part is that it’s bad way to forecast final standings anyway

[Enoch Root]

I didn't assume, I explicitly stated that it was based on starting with points percentage, and staying with points percentage.

Anyway, it was a simple point, and already covered, but let the debates commence!

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I didn't assume, I explicitly stated that it was based on starting with points percentage, and staying with points percentage.

Anyway, it was a simple point, and already covered, but let the debates commence!

Ok

I thought that when you wrote this

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If you assume everyone will continue at their current pace, then the order of the standings will remain the same.

It doesn't matter what the points are in that scenario…….

…..

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I didn't assume, I explicitly stated that it was based on starting with points percentage, and staying with points percentage.

You said the order of the standings would not change. But the standings are not based on points percentage.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

You said the order of the standings would not change. But the standings are not based on points percentage.

JC, do you have nothing better to do? Here is what I said.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I don't want to be picky either, but if you were already ranking them by points percentage (as I would), then no, there would be no further changes.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

but if you start with points percentage, and keep them all the same, then no, the standings wouldn't change

can we move on now?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I don't think this team needs to talk about doing more to try to intentionally tank. Either they will continue to defy expectations and hold off the Blues and Canucks from passing them or they will lose games that are one the road and/or to the playoff contenders.

This is how I look at the schedule leading up to the trade deadline.

Expected Wins: Sabres (H), Ducks (H), Sharks (H)
Likely Wins: Red Wings (H), Kraken (H)
Likely Losses: Kraken (A), Flyers (A)
Expected Losses: Wild (A), Jets (A), Caps (H), Leafs (H), Avs (H), Caps (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

The X factor to this list is determining which games Wolf will play. Maybe he can move a bunch of those games into the win column... but I think these are safe and objective expectations for the upcoming schedule.

Anyone want to punch holes in this post instead? @Enoch or @Jay, do you think I am being unfair with my expected loss list going up to the trade deadline??

https://www.nhl.com/flames/schedule/2025-01-01

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Anyone want to punch holes in this post instead? @Enoch or @Jay, do you think I am being unfair with my expected loss list going up to the trade deadline??

https://www.nhl.com/flames/schedule/2025-01-01

I don't think you're being unfair, but of course things never turn out the way one expects. They'll win some games they ‘should’ lose, and lose some they ‘should’ win, so I imagine their record will be somewhat better than your list.

To do very much better, they'll either need Wolf in God mode, or someone like Kuzmenko to wake up and start scoring goals.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Canucks point % reduced further with their loss tonight.
Now everyone re calculate and fight about math again!

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Canucks point % reduced further with their loss tonight.
Now everyone re calculate and fight about math again!

No need
The wizards decreed the points % will not change and therefore the standings won’t
Cause
You know
Math is hard

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Anyone want to punch holes in this post instead? @Enoch or @Jay, do you think I am being unfair with my expected loss list going up to the trade deadline??

https://www.nhl.com/flames/schedule/2025-01-01

Calgary's remaining strength of schedule is the 9th toughest, so you're not wrong. That said, VAN, and STL have the 12th and 11th hardest schedule respectively, so they're pretty much in the same boat. The two teams that could benefit from the remaining strength of schedule are UTA at 22, and NSH with the easiest schedule remaining.

As for the games themselves I prefer to watch them, but the DET game is a scheduled loss because they had our number for a while, similar to STL. SEA, FLA, PHI, WSH(split), and MIN would all be wins.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

But the standings are not based on points percentage.

Correct with how they are listed.

But point percentage is much more relevant, as it’s a more realistic measure. If you want to believe a team which is one point ahead of another who has 3 games in hand, good for you.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

You said the order of the standings would not change. But the standings are not based on points percentage.

Points percentage is a trend of where a team is expected to finish in the standings while standings on any given day are simply a time stamped snapshot. Are you people really arguing about this?

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Points percentage is a trend of where a team is expected to finish in the standings while standings on any given day are simply a time stamped snapshot. Are you people really arguing about this?

Ha ha
What I’m disputing is the poster said this

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If you assume everyone will continue at their current pace, then the order of the standings will remain the same…….

Which is untrue

[Bingo]

Man was that a rabbit hole.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

Ha ha
What I’m disputing is the poster said this



Which is untrue

You can't be serious.
The poster Enoch & I specifically replied to asked do the Flames make the playoffs if point % stays the same for all teams?

The discussion was about point % and he was obviously talking about the standings in order of point %.
If you follow the conversation, this rabbit hole wasn't needed.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

You can't be serious.
The poster Enoch & I specifically replied to asked do the Flames make the playoffs if point % stays the same for all teams?

The discussion was about point % and he was obviously talking about the standings in order of point %.
If you follow the conversation, this rabbit hole wasn't needed.

My god
All I was saying is that Enochs original reply was

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If you assume everyone will continue at their current pace, then the order of the standings will remain the same.

It doesn't matter what the points are in that scenario.

If we DON'T assume that other teams will continue on their current paces, then no, 93 points probably won't be enough.

Nowhere does it say "if we order everybody by points percentage to begin with"

and

I made the grave mistake of assuming that
"order of the standings will remain the same....."
meant the order of the standings wouldn't change simply because I assumed the standings are ordered by points.

My mistake

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Calgary's remaining strength of schedule is the 9th toughest, so you're not wrong. That said, VAN, and STL have the 12th and 11th hardest schedule respectively, so they're pretty much in the same boat. The two teams that could benefit from the remaining strength of schedule are UTA at 22, and NSH with the easiest schedule remaining.

As for the games themselves I prefer to watch them, but the DET game is a scheduled loss because they had our number for a while, similar to STL. SEA, FLA, PHI, WSH(split), and MIN would all be wins.

Today I learned about the Tankathon website.... here I was gauging the remaining schedule manually like a sucker. Thanks for upskilling my NHL analysis!

Having the 9th hardest schedule to close out the season is going to be a tough hill to climb. It definitely favors the result of a "top 10 pick". Now it is up to the players to see if they can overcome this schedule (especially March).

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Today I learned about the Tankathon website.... here I was gauging the remaining schedule manually like a sucker. Thanks for upskilling my NHL analysis!

Having the 9th hardest schedule to close out the season is going to be a tough hill to climb. It definitely favors the result of a "top 10 pick". Now it is up to the players to see if they can overcome this schedule (especially March).

I think if favours the result of the mushy middle between a playoff spot and top 10 pick. If I was an odds maker, that's likely where the Flames end up unfortunately.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Having the 9th hardest schedule to close out the season is going to be a tough hill to climb. It definitely favors the result of a "top 10 pick". Now it is up to the players to see if they can overcome this schedule (especially March).

I don't think it matters all that much as there is no discernable difference between our schedule and Vancouver and St. Louis' down the stretch.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I am excited to see how the Flames finish off their season. Do they continue defying expectations? Or do they crater like Arizona did last season? They are a fun bunch to watch this season, and overall a likable bunch. I have no idea how the rest of the season will unfold.


If you told me that the Flames would find themselves in a playoffs spot, I would have called you crazy, especially given their cap hit. If you told me that they were there even though Kuzmenko, Sharangovich and even Coleman were FAR DOWN from their scoring rates last season and still in a playoff spot, even crazier. To have them 8th best in GA thus far into the season with THAT inexperienced defence? Who would have really believed it? Yet here we are.


This is a fun season. I have anxiety of that pick going to Montreal and potentially how much of a building block it could be. I want to pick top 5 this year. However, what can I really control here? Absolutely nothing. So I can either just get angry about the Flames not 'rebuilding like I would personally want them to" or simply enjoy this season for what it is - and unexpectedly fun season.



Besides, there is next season and the season after to worry about picking high, especially with who is available then vs now. Whatever happens this season, there will be positives and negatives. I may lament some of the negatives, but i don't see a point of living there for long. I trust Conroy to continue with whatever plan he has beyond this season.