Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Andy83]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

None of those are monopolies. Not even close.

The amazon one will be interesting for me. If you'd have asked me what percentage market share would be a practical monopoly, I'd have said something like 70% minimum, and probably laughed at the suggestion a company with less than at least 50% of the market being considered a monopoly. Amazon accounted for just over a third of online sales in the US in 2023, yet it feels a lot closer to what a monopoly actually is in practice. Interesting.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Azure

Isn't it amusing and sad watching our pathetic government now try to actually do something about the tariff threat?

Example.

Liquor sales. Ford wants LCBO to remove all American liquor from the shelves if the tariffs go through. LCBO is one of the biggest buyers of alcohol in the world. Obviously that would devastate many American producers.

My question is, why have we prioritized for so many years American producers, and not let Canadian companies compete more? Specifically why has our government worked for so many years to restrict inter provincial trade on alcohol sales? Up till 2019 it was a CRIME to transport beer across provincial lines. Many provinces still don't allow direct to consumer sales across Canada, etc, etc.

And now these folks in charge want to tell us they will change all that? What a bloody joke.

Wow. you whine as good as your dear leader! lol Preston Manning would be so proud of you.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Except that Poilievre himself is not popular - much less popular than his party - and many people find him off-putting despite agreeing with many of his positions. If they can get the same positions from someone the feel more comfortable with they way swing back to the liberals. The polls have narrowed already.

That person would be Carney at least on first appearance...if he could get away from what he said in the past and distance away from Trudeau. Poilievre has never been a strong leader.

That's why I don't get the play to go for PM now outside of it solely to stop Freeland from leading from a long term perspective (due to Liberal leadership rules). This election is a lost cause for the Liberals and they need a full rebuild with a new plan.

Polls have not narrowed as of yet, unless you follow EKOS, who's owner Frank Graves has personally vowed to make sure Poilievre never gets elected. Abacus makes a mocking comment on it and discrediting their IVR methods.
https://abacusdata.ca/latest-findings/

Our latest Abacus Data poll finds the Conservatives maintaining a 26-point lead, even as two recent polls suggest the gap may be tightening.

Other findings

Finally, the desire for change continues to loom large over the federal political landscape. Fully 88% believe it is time for change, either because they see a good alternative (52%) or simply want to replace the Liberals despite hesitations about the alternatives (36%). Only 12% think the Liberals deserve another term. Since Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement, his name has been removed from the re-election question, but the overall results have shifted little, indicating negligible impact so far on how Canadians view the Liberals’ electoral prospects.

Ipsos polling shows 77% of Canadians wanting an election immediately.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/three-qu...diate-election

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Andy83

The amazon one will be interesting for me. If you'd have asked me what percentage market share would be a practical monopoly, I'd have said something like 70% minimum, and probably laughed at the suggestion a company with less than at least 50% of the market being considered a monopoly. Amazon accounted for just over a third of online sales in the US in 2023, yet it feels a lot closer to what a monopoly actually is in practice. Interesting.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveba...trust-problem/
That’s probably a good summation of why it is a concern. They edged up to 40% of the US in 2024. They also have significant cloud computing market share. If the US doesn’t do anything with antitrust I think Amazon will eventually split like GE

[Andy83]

Originally Posted by Firebot

That person would be Carney at least on first appearance...if he could get away from what he said in the past and distance away from Trudeau. Poilievre has never been a strong leader.

That's why I don't get the play to go for PM now outside of it solely to stop Freeland from leading from a long term perspective (due to Liberal leadership rules). This election is a lost cause for the Liberals and they need a full rebuild with a new plan.

Polls have not narrowed as of yet, unless you follow EKOS, who's owner Frank Graves has personally vowed to make sure Poilievre never gets elected. Abacus makes a mocking comment on it and discrediting their IVR methods.
https://abacusdata.ca/latest-findings/



Other findings



Ipsos polling shows 77% of Canadians wanting an election immediately.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/three-qu...diate-election

That Frank Graves/ekos poll gave serious Ann Selzer Iowa poll vibes.

[opendoor]

It’s not just EKOS. Mainstreet’s last poll showed the race being 10 points tighter than its December poll. Obviously the Conservatives still have a massive lead even after that, so I don’t know if it means a whole lot electorally. But I imagine the Liberals would be happier getting the 70-80 seats that the Mainstreet poll projects rather then being wiped out.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Andy83

That Frank Graves/ekos poll gave serious Ann Selzer Iowa poll vibes.

It's the same guy that said this yet wants to present his polls as unbiased.



I swear he's probably a poster on this forum saying PP instead of Poilievre. He's now on the defense on X about Abacus's commentary on IVR.

[Bonded]

I can't see the Conservatives losing outside of a terrible PP campaign and it would have to be reallllly bad. Whoever ends up the Liberal leader is really just trying to stop the devastation to take a run at the next election.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

It’s not just EKOS. Mainstreet’s last poll showed the race being 10 points tighter than its December poll. Obviously the Conservatives still have a massive lead even after that, so I don’t know if it means a whole lot electorally. But I imagine the Liberals would be happier getting the 70-80 seats that the Mainstreet poll projects rather then being wiped out.

You are right. Though Mainstreet still shows CPC polling at 45% and actually gaining support since December, with the Liberals gaining solely at the NDP's expense and Green party (with May losing her seat).

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dashboard/canada

EKOS's suddenly showing an 11 point gap while the norm has been closer to 25 is not an outlier, it's a clear fabrication.

Mainstreet's polling at least makes some type of logical sense, EKOS does not (and they generally have CPC lower than other polls).

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Firebot

It's the same guy that said this yet wants to present his polls as unbiased.



I swear he's probably a poster on this forum saying PP instead of Poilievre. He's now on the defense on X about Abacus's commentary on IVR.

I don't fully understand that post. Is he saying that he going to go out and do some polling to collect data on racism but he already has a predetermined result? Is he just going to go out and try to "find" data that supports his racism predetermination?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I don't fully understand that post. Is he saying that he going to go out and do some polling to collect data on racism but he already has a predetermined result? Is he just going to go out and try to "find" data that supports his racism predetermination?

He may have done that but I read it more he thinks he has data that racists like PP. Although there is a big difference between all people who like PP are racists vs racists like PP. The latter isn't shocking

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Andy83

The amazon one will be interesting for me. If you'd have asked me what percentage market share would be a practical monopoly, I'd have said something like 70% minimum, and probably laughed at the suggestion a company with less than at least 50% of the market being considered a monopoly. Amazon accounted for just over a third of online sales in the US in 2023, yet it feels a lot closer to what a monopoly actually is in practice. Interesting.

Monopoly should be a relatively high bar.

Amazon does not have anywhere close to anything resembling a monopoly. MS, google, and even oracle have competitors.

In terms of their shopping platform, shopify came in and are competing with them directly....never mind the temus, aliexpress, etsy, ebay, propriety retailer platforms.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Bonded

He may have done that but I read it more he thinks he has data that racists like PP. Although there is a big difference between all people who like PP are racists vs racists like PP. The latter isn't shocking

Does he have the data already, actually done the polling and is releasing the results this week, or is he going out to collect data this week to a series of poll questions?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Does he have the data already, actually done the polling and is releasing the results this week, or is he going out to collect data this week to a series of poll questions?

I read it as he has it already but it's wording is confusing. Also what is the point, it doesn't really add much either way. White nationalists voting for conservatives isn't a PP thing.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Thank you for this.

Well, I acknowledge that asking whether the prime minister wields too much power or influence is a legitimate question, I definitely disagree that a PM with a majority has "essentially unfettered power over the whole country".

I also disagree that achieving "some sort of coalition between Quebec and Ontario" is something easily achieved. In any event, there are plenty of other coalition opportunities out there, including, for example, the western provinces-GTA suburbs coalition that elected Stephen Harper's government for over a decade.

Lastly, even accepting your premise as true (which I obviously don't), I don't really see great evidence that Prime Ministers have wielded this power to plunder Alberta for the benefit of people in Ontario/Quebec. Alberta, not Ontario or Quebec, is the wealthiest, most prosperous province. Obviously, some legislation or policies will, from time to time, benefit some provinces more than others, but Alberta generally seems to be doing just fine under Confederation (and all of its rules, etc). What am I missing?

I don't disagree with much of this. However, the non-ontario coalitions can only exist to the degree they don't threaten the benefits conferred upon central canada by Confederation. Conservative parties still tend to be protest vote destinations, even in the case of longer term PMs like Harper. There's a reason why central Canada likes Liberals and Red Tories.

This might sound pedantic (and it is), but I think it's probably more accurate to say that Alberta is the most productive province, rather than the wealthiest. But that distinction is probably not as significant to most people as it is to me.

As for what you are missing: the recent rhetoric around tariff strategy is an excellent indicator of the larger issues I'm referencing. Central Canada is willing to elect politicians that are highly adversarial to the best interests of Western Canada.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I can't see the Conservatives losing outside of a terrible PP campaign and it would have to be reallllly bad. Whoever ends up the Liberal leader is really just trying to stop the devastation to take a run at the next election.

Both Scheerasaurs and THE Tool had double digit leads in polling a few months before the election.

No one in Southern Ontario is going to vote for mini maga now that Turdeau is gone.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

i don't fully understand that post. Is he saying that he going to go out and do some polling to collect data on racism but he already has a predetermined result? Is he just going to go out and try to "find" data that supports his racism predetermination?

Yes. He's been on a personal mission to use the tools he has to ensure he will never be PM. I'm honestly surprised he never made Fuzz's misinformation thread as a non-partisan considering his power as owner of a polling company.

Spoiler!

https://twitter.com/user/status/1825999302402970083

https://twitter.com/user/status/1506089221203066883

https://twitter.com/user/status/1836932082477514880

[Andy83]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

Monopoly should be a relatively high bar.

Amazon does not have anywhere close to anything resembling a monopoly. MS, google, and even oracle have competitors.

In terms of their shopping platform, shopify came in and are competing with them directly....never mind the temus, aliexpress, etsy, ebay, propriety retailer platforms.

The bar should be high. As for the rest, i guess we will find out if the law agrees.

In terms of what I find most interesting is that, my previous perception of a monopoly was one company holding a vast majority of the total market share. Amazon and e-commerce, has me re-evaluating that perception.

If you look at two scenarios, where in the first, company x has, whatever, say, 80% of the market, vs a company like Amazon having 40%, and millions of other competitors, but it's closest competition holds a fraction (less than 8%). Is that competitive imbalance much less problematic than the first scenario? Even if the bulk of companies hold the majority of online sales? I'm not so sure that it is much less problematic.

[Firebot]

Nanos just released their latest poll this morning.

https://nanos.co/conservatives-45-li...oldrums-nanos/

"Conservatives 45, Liberals 21, NDP 19 > Trudeau leaves Liberal brand in doldrums."

Quite a different conclusion from EKOS.

[shotinthebacklund]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Nanos just released their latest poll this morning.

https://nanos.co/conservatives-45-li...oldrums-nanos/

"Conservatives 45, Liberals 21, NDP 19 > Trudeau leaves Liberal brand in doldrums."

Quite a different conclusion from EKOS.

What I find scary is how low the concern for "deficit" is here.. Sure feels like that's the Canary in the coal mine situation to me.