Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Give it a break man.

Well they were at Carney's, so it's a reasonable question.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I think you have it backwards. The US cannot win a tariff war with Canada, full stop. They need our resources more than we need theirs. It will be damaging to both economies but if Trump follows through he is going to hurt his country more then ours. That is why Canada is taking a hard stance against Trump, they are calling his bluff and if he follows through the backlash he will face will end his tariffs pretty quickly.

This is just completely wrong.

There’s only so much oil and natural gas Canada can get out without infrastructure in the US. There’s even infrastructure that goes through the US and back into Canada again. Canada imports most of its refined products from the US (IIRC). The industry is royally screwed if product isn’t being sold into the US. Production is shut-in, and rigs have to shut down pretty much immediately. Many many jobs are lost. Immediately. Alberta royalty revenue goes does down. Immediately.

That’s not to say that the US doesn’t also hurt badly because of it, but to try and put Canada on the pedestal and say that they need us more than we need them is just blatantly wrong. It’s a mutually beneficial symbiotic relationship.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

People do this all of the time.

- climate change and related policy
- fiscal/monetary policy with respect to GFC/Covid

People regularly vote for their own benefits, and then believe (mostly through the lies of politicians), that the cost isn't generalized. They are then upset when the consequences and the price that needs to be paid come home to roost. Generally the more the benefit looks like "free money", the worse this problem is. In the two examples I gave, inflation was always going to be the consequence, but nobody really cared. Until they do.

Something like minimum wage increases are similar. Seems good on the surface, until someone who doesn't have value commensurate with the minimum wage realizes that the actual minimum wage is $0 and they can't get a job.

From my experience people generally don’t care until it starts directly effecting them. Especially in the pocket book.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

I've stated that Alberta's oil and gas industry is high leverage and can be used as such. Trump has handed Alberta a lot of leverage in negotiating with the rest of Canada.

From Alberta's perspective, there is nothing to negotiate with Trump. Alberta sells a global commodity, so negotiating based on price with the US isn't that useful, pricing is determined rather than set. They already buy all of our product. What else is there to negotiate? Again, this all assumes that the US won't put a tariff on Canadian oil and gas.

The leverage (that I think Smith hasn't entirely utilized) is with the rest of Canada. Most of what Canada manufactures is replaceable in the US to a greater degree than the commodities Canada produces. That's not a great bargaining position for Central Canada, and that's unfortunate for them. If Central Canada wants Alberta to be part of The Team (as if that's even a thing), then they should pay handsomely for that. The vitriol and SDS (Smith Derangement Syndrome...you heard it here first), that is prevalent right now in the media is not a bad thing, it is an indicator of how much bargaining power Alberta has at the moment. We should press our advantage over the rest of Canada to its maximum. These types of situations are rare.

I'm disappointed that more bargaining doesn't go on behind closed doors. Right now, we've got Conservatives fighting with Conservatives.

I guess the problem is, that with so much past hostility, and with pending elections, everyone is jockeying for political points.

The amount of bluster that is going on in society these days, is enough to make a person head for the hills.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Chrystia Freeland held her leadership bid announcement just now and there was a sizeable protest in the hall at the start of the event which caused a delay as they had to deal with the protesters. This leadership campaign will be fun. It could be damaging to the Liberals internally.

Hamas?

[transplant99]

Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland laid out her case Sunday to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and take on U.S. president-elect Donald Trump, positioning herself as "a battle-tested leader with the scars to prove it."

But her message was repeatedly drowned out by pro-Palestinian protesters in the crowd who shouted down Freeland with calls of "genocide supporter" and loud banging.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chr...ship-1.7435563

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by transplant99

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chr...ship-1.7435563

These protesters are getting out of hand. Protest if you want to. There is a time and a place for it, but it feels like they are just seeking to disrupt, and not actually protest.

I am probably wrong, but just feels that way sometimes.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

I'm disappointed that more bargaining doesn't go on behind closed doors. Right now, we've got Conservatives fighting with Conservatives.

I guess the problem is, that with so much past hostility, and with pending elections, everyone is jockeying for political points.

The amount of bluster that is going on in society these days, is enough to make a person head for the hills.

I was talking with a buddy the other day and made the suggestion of no government for a couple of years. Like a time out.

Just leave us alone for a bit. We’ve had enough. Go think about what you have done. We’ll call you in 2 years.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

This is just completely wrong.

There’s only so much oil and natural gas Canada can get out without infrastructure in the US. There’s even infrastructure that goes through the US and back into Canada again. Canada imports most of its refined products from the US (IIRC). The industry is royally screwed if product isn’t being sold into the US. Production is shut-in, and rigs have to shut down pretty much immediately. Many many jobs are lost. Immediately. Alberta royalty revenue goes does down. Immediately.

That’s not to say that the US doesn’t also hurt badly because of it, but to try and put Canada on the pedestal and say that they need us more than we need them is just blatantly wrong. It’s a mutually beneficial symbiotic relationship.

Ya BC, particulalry Vancouver imports a lto fo refined product. Interestingly...

For the past four years, Alberta has received about half of Canada’s imported RPP volumes, which is the most of all provinces. Alberta’s imports have increased significantly since 2010 when only 18 Mb/d was imported, compared to 197 Mb/d in 2023. The majority of this is condensate, which is carried into the province by two CER-regulated pipelines, Southern Lights and Cochin.Footnote 4 The condensate is blended with bitumenDefinition* extracted from oil sands projects, allowing it to flow through pipelines.

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-an...t-in-2023.html

So if we did sever ourselves from the US, we'd have to find a large condensate source to get it out of Alberta, and that's not something Canada has a lot of easy access to.

[BowRiverBruinsRule]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

These protesters are getting out of hand. Protest if you want to. There is a time and a place for it, but it feels like they are just seeking to disrupt, and not actually protest.

I am probably wrong, but just feels that way sometimes.

Accelerationism.

[Andy83]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

I'm going to take the other side of this. I enjoy having my ideas and thoughts tested because it assists in developing those ideas. There's not much I would agree with them on in regards to the subject at hand. But one is useful for me, the other is not. It's helpful to be able to tell the difference. That only happens when someone disagrees with you. The usefulness is in the disagreement. Pepsifree is useful this was I think - Fuzz does not. Even better if you are willing to modify your views with new information.


The trick is to learn how to not feel discomfort when someone disagrees with you - which is a natural human instinct. I don't take any of this personally, which is why I don't bother (mostly), with making personal comments or responding to them. Nothing seems more pointless and silly than making personal comments on an anonymous internet message board. My avatar's reputation has no usefulness for me.

I agree there is nothing wrong with having a disagreement, even if hostile (my personal feeling). Having your personal views challenged is indeed important. There is nothing "healthy" or productive about being in your own little echo chamber.

That being said, none of that is really what I'm talking about. I think it's equally important to set your ego aside in disagreements, realize in certain situations, continuing is pointless. Not much point in continuing to beat a dead horse. If you go into every conversation thinking you need to "win" at all cost, dropping it when it clearly needs to be dropped becomes troublesome.

[Harry Lime]

The biggest stick that Canada has to use in a tariff war with the states, is simply taking away the power that Ontario and Quebec sell to the eastern seaboard. Shut off the heat and lights to Boston and new york, and the tariffs are over.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

The biggest stick that Canada has to use in a tariff war with the states, is simply taking away the power that Ontario and Quebec sell to the eastern seaboard. Shut off the heat and lights to Boston and new york, and the tariffs are over.

Do you actually think the US would ever allow this to happen?

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Do you actually think the US would ever allow this to happen?

Not to mention that would mean shutting power down to parts of Canada as well.

Terrible idea. Even if it didn’t mean shutting down power to parts of Canada.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Do you actually think the US would ever allow this to happen?

No, they would cave and do away with the tariffs. What other choice do they have?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Not to mention that would mean shutting power down to parts of Canada as well.

Terrible idea. Even if it didn’t mean shutting down power to parts of Canada.

No it wouldn't.

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

This is just completely wrong.

There’s only so much oil and natural gas Canada can get out without infrastructure in the US. There’s even infrastructure that goes through the US and back into Canada again. Canada imports most of its refined products from the US (IIRC). The industry is royally screwed if product isn’t being sold into the US. Production is shut-in, and rigs have to shut down pretty much immediately. Many many jobs are lost. Immediately. Alberta royalty revenue goes does down. Immediately.

That’s not to say that the US doesn’t also hurt badly because of it, but to try and put Canada on the pedestal and say that they need us more than we need them is just blatantly wrong. It’s a mutually beneficial symbiotic relationship.

Just to clarify, Canada does not import most of its refined products. In October 2024, Canada produced just a tad over 2 million barrels per day of refined product and imported about 144,000 bbls. So it’s not even a close call.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Andy83

I agree there is nothing wrong with having a disagreement, even if hostile (my personal feeling). Having your personal views challenged is indeed important. There is nothing "healthy" or productive about being in your own little echo chamber.

That being said, none of that is really what I'm talking about. I think it's equally important to set your ego aside in disagreements, realize in certain situations, continuing is pointless. Not much point in continuing to beat a dead horse. If you go into every conversation thinking you need to "win" at all cost, dropping it when it clearly needs to be dropped becomes troublesome.

The easy solution is not going into conversations worried about winning or losing, that way you won’t feel like you’re conceding ground or risking a loss simply by answering questions or expanding on ideas. Basically, all that was ever asked is that you participate, but if it’s pointless to answer questions or expanding on your ideas, then it’s pointless to share them to begin with, so why bother?

Feeling that it’s not worth the effort is fine, even under the guise of setting your ego aside, but if you’re going to just redirect that effort into cosplaying as an amateur insult comic, then it becomes pretty easy for people to see through that posturing as ego takes over.

[Andy83]

Originally Posted by SebC

You admit it's a high leverage product, but don't want it on the table? Do you want tariffs forever?

Someone like you who thinks every dollar spent by government would be better spent by the private industry should surely be against giving our money to a government that isn't even ours.

I could be wrong, it happens often, but I don't think anyone disputes the massive leverage we hold in our hydrocarbon reserves. I do, however, think what people who oppose using our reserves as a bargaining chip (myself included), think a better approach is using targeted tariffs as an initial strategy. I don't know this was necessarily the case, but I have to believe, the strategy the first go around was just that. I believe the strategy was to select very specific items, that would have a relatively low impact on Canadians, while having a relatively larger impact on Americans. Think products we have an analog for already in place. Not sure if you have been to Cuba, but if you have, think that. They have all the same things as us, but a lot of the products you buy are knockoffs. Products that serve the same purpose, but are often not as good, or at least not what we are use to.

Some examples of these targeted tariffs, it's believe were implimented the first go around were

bourbon
OJ
Heinz ketchup
Etc.

Each one of these has a fairly comparable alternative. Canadians wouldn't be greatly impacted by simply making a different choice. But US suppliers would feel a relatively greater impact.

Oil and gas reserves, though very valuable to the Americans, fails to check a very important box. Any disruption would certainly have a massive impact on Canadians and our economy. Arguably, it would have a larger impact on Canada than it would on the US.

Sure, there is a scenario where we put an export tax on the table and Trump flinches and very rapidly backtracks. But when we have a less harmful alternative for Canada, though admittedly less impactful alternative, why not start there and see where it leads.

All that said, I think if you could jump inside Trumps head, and sort through all the bull#### and bluster, you'd find these things aren't even the priority anyway. I think he's concerned more about our security, and in turn the US own security to the north. I think his threats on our sovereignty are his ####ed up way of highlighting this. I think if whoever the new PM ends up being, shows a commitment to our own defense all of this goes away.

[dissentowner]

They already showed the commitment to securing the border, they just did that to the tune of 1.3B and Trump said the tariffs are still going on us. That isn't accomplishing anything. As for the select items that was a joke. Oh no, not tariffs on Heinz ketchup and Canadian bourbon! Whatever will they do!