Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

So outline what your "tanking plan" is - in detail please.
How does the team take the necessary steps that ensures they will finish at the bottom of the standings.

I bet most people thought the Flames had built a bottom ten roster going into the season. Andersson is the only player they could have traded easily this summer but even getting rid of him might not have them in the bottom ten this year.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

The examples I'm referring to include Chicago, LA, and Pittsburgh, which all won with ELC/below market second contracts for their star players in their initial cups.

In many of the situations where the top picks became high paid, they took (often significant) discounts along the way to help the team build around them. So yes, some cases of these players being high paid when they eventually won a cup, but the strength of the team around them was related to their concessions along the way.

Well, no, you’re talking about a couple teams from 15 years ago which I’m not sure is totally relevant any more.

Even the second contracts for guys like Kane, Toews, Doughty, etc were not cheap by any measure, this is a time when the cap was also 20 million lower than today. A player making 10 million when he wins the cup wasn’t helping his team build a contender because he made 6.5 million a few years proper. Teams operate on a yearly cap, so making less 2-3 or even just 1 year prior doesn’t help a team add anything unless they can keep it when the player is making 10.

I get the sentiment of what you’re saying and I actually believe that a team’s best chance to win a cup is when elite players are on their ELC (if they can build around them fast enough) but unfortunately for both of our beliefs the last ten years of cup winners don’t tell that story.

EDIT: to put it into context, those second contracts at the time would have been comparable to Bedard making 8 million during his next contract instead of 10. And given the way second contracts have kind of gone out the window, it’s probably moot anyway.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Teams operate on a yearly cap, so making less 2-3 or even just 1 year prior doesn’t help a team add anything unless they can keep it when the player is making 10.

Yes to yearly cap, but in a climbing cap world (the norm pre-pandemic) a player taking less 2-3 years ago might mean an extra core/complementary piece to help with their cup aspirations before their big payday.

The larger point is that adding these top picks via free agency/trade when they're more expensive is an oversimplification, much like saying every team that wins a Stanley Cup has a top 5 pick is.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I bet most people thought the Flames had built a bottom ten roster going into the season. Andersson is the only player they could have traded easily this summer but even getting rid of him might not have them in the bottom ten this year.

I certainly did. I had them bottom 5 based on the D and goaltending. Both have been way better than I thought they would be.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I certainly did. I had them bottom 5 based on the D and goaltending. Both have been way better than I thought they would be.

Exactly.

There is so much arguing from hindsight around here. The Flames traded Toffoli, Lindholm, Zadorov, Hanifin, Tanev and Markstrom. They added no one (okay, Mantha). They went into the season with $20M in cap space, only 2 defensemen with more than 1 year of NHL experience, and 2 goalies that had 93 games of NHL experience COMBINED.

This was a team prepped to finish bottom 5. But they have come out and defied everyone, and played much better than anyone expected.

But it's nothing but bitching and hindsight around here.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

It's certainly not a lock that they'll make the playoffs. The team's been really streaky this year (two separate back-to-back four straight wins followed by 4 straight losses) and they're currently on the good side of the streak, which makes us all happy.

Hopefully they'll be able to ride this streak a lot longer, which may mean sticking with Wolf for the majority of starts in net.

Yes, at a high level I think that is accurate to say they are streaky but if you dig into the streaks, it looks like they line up with home stands and road trips.

If the team is home they win more (14-6-3) and if they are on the road then they lose more (7-9-4). Right now we have 23 home games completed and only 20 away games.

If all thing stay consistent, we have more losses coming up than wins. Tomorrow's game will be interesting because I expect another road loss but if Wolf is in net there is a good chance for a win.

After that, we have to finish off the road trip in Winnipeg (another expected loss) then we get a long break and should have an easy home win against the Sabres, followed by 3 expected losses against the Wild, Jets, and Caps.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Exactly.

There is so much arguing from hindsight around here. The Flames traded Toffoli, Lindholm, Zadorov, Hanifin, Tanev and Markstrom. They added no one (okay, Mantha). They went into the season with $20M in cap space, only 2 defensemen with more than 1 year of NHL experience, and 2 goalies that had 93 games of NHL experience COMBINED.

This was a team prepped to finish bottom 5. But they have come out and defied everyone, and played much better than anyone expected.

But it's nothing but bitching and hindsight around here.

And that this can only be a bad thing!

Assigning zero value to the fact that the rebuild is clearly way ahead of schedule because they appear to have four or five component pieces developing before our very eyes is living a confirmation bias.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And that this can only be a bad thing!

Assigning zero value to the fact that the rebuild is clearly way ahead of schedule because they appear to have four or five component pieces developing before our very eyes is living a confirmation bias.

I think the issue is attributing this years success to being "ahead of schedule"

Does this years relative success actually lead them to where they want to go faster, or does it actually throw a "Wrench" in the plan.

Being middle of the pack faster doesn't necessarily mean the rebuild is ahead of schedule. Unless the rebuild is suppose to get us to the middle of the pack.

The team is very weirdly built, with too many older but not horrible/retirement players who play hard and actually still make up our core, but will get worse over the next few years, and young solid guys who can replace these old players production, but no young superstar "probable" players, leaving us...... Where exactly?

If we had 3 young studs in the minors and were doing this I would agree. To me this season will set the rebuild back a few years (best case) or 5 years if the Flames try to pivot into "rebuild accelerated" mode.

Wolf is the wildcard - If he becomes a top 3 goalie maybe we become Winnipegesque (Who unfortunately don't seem to have postseason success because they are missing the superstars and in the playoffs most teams have good goalies and superstars playing 25-30 mins)

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Wolf is the wildcard - If he becomes a top 3 goalie maybe we become Winnipegesque (Who unfortunately don't seem to have postseason success because they are missing the superstars and in the playoffs most teams have good goalies and superstars playing 25-30 mins)

So, do you trade Wolf just to bottom out?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Bonded

So, do you trade Wolf just to bottom out?

Never! The trade chips should be Andersson, Coleman, Backlund, and Kadri.

Andersson and Backlund want a cup. Coleman and Kadri have a cup already but seem like the kind of players that want to compete.

Those are the parts of the team that you trade away if you want the table to topple over. Well, maybe not Coleman but losing a center or top 4 D would.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Bonded

So, do you trade Wolf just to bottom out?

No - that’s the issue with this season / the wrench in what I believe was the rebuild plan

A goalie can keep you from bottoming out , but seldom can lead you to the cup ( or maybe to say just as likely a non superstar goalie
Can get hot in playoffs )

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And that this can only be a bad thing!

Assigning zero value to the fact that the rebuild is clearly way ahead of schedule because they appear to have four or five component pieces developing before our very eyes is living a confirmation bias.

Agree with this.

At the start of the season i didnt expect zary to come in and play like a middle six Center. Scoronato is playing like a top six wing. Wolf? What needs to be said? Kerrins story is still first page but theirs enough to keep reading. Bahl? Didnt have him slated as a competent top four.

Kadri is still playing at top six level still in spite of age.

Next year a Gridin, or I Dar Suniev!! Or stromgren will also come in. One if the defence probably as well. Add a top six center to this group its a playoff team with warts.

[Tbull8]

I think its understated how beneficial the Wranglers being in Calgary has been. Players are learning the organization early in their careers and living with less stress having to move between cities. The Wranglers have also been one of the best teams in the AHL since coming here, and this can go a long way in exposing these young players to playoffs and bigger games in general. Add in the fact that the team is one of the younger ones in the league (compared to a team like Hershey who plays their vets a lot more) and we have a great pipeline to develop NHLers. I dont think its a coincidence that all of the young core players have earned their way onto the team after playing so well in the A

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

I think its understated how beneficial the Wranglers being in Calgary has been. Players are learning the organization early in their careers and living with less stress having to move between cities. The Wranglers have also been one of the best teams in the AHL since coming here, and this can go a long way in exposing these young players to playoffs and bigger games in general. Add in the fact that the team is one of the younger ones in the league (compared to a team like Hershey who plays their vets a lot more) and we have a great pipeline to develop NHLers. I dont think its a coincidence that all of the young core players have earned their way onto the team after playing so well in the A

One thing is for sure we are not going edmonsuck when it comes to prospects. Dont look ready? Sorry but down you go.

[Pliddy]

oops wrong thread

[Matty81]

Its nice to see a handful of youngsters playing well, and org should never tank, the pick will be what it is at this point and there is no doubt that a few of these guys taking a step is good news but what exactly are we rebuilding right now or ahead of curve towards?

As far as actual player value in the long run, the team is terrible, we have two decent young forwards. A very good goalie we can build around, and one d prospect who looks like he can drive play but is two levels away. Beyond that I don't see anyone I'm sure will pencil in to a contenders lineup in 5 or 6 years, yet anyway.

I don't know what the answer is as to how you do it, but this team will never win a stanley cup without somehow obtaining a young 1C to build around and at least 3 or 4 more forwards behind that who can score and play in the top 9 that will actually be here in 5 or 6 years. Probably 2-3 more really good defenders too beyond Parekh who can play in the top 4 as well. And we're not talking about going fishing for someone like Shane Pinto or another middle six C, teams that win usually have at least one forward at least on the periphery of the hart conversation.

Unfortunately years like this where you sewer your draft pick and end up not adding another one of those core pieces for me feel like either treading water or a step further away not a step towards the goal. It's fun to watch but getting a top 5 pick is insanely difficult and all the stats show that most of the teams who win at least start their run with a piece like that. Not rooting for the bottom to fall out either, just not very optimistic for where this road leads for the Flames other than mediocrity in 5 years

[Vinny01]

A decade ago many thought the Flames were going to be in the mix for McDavid but that hard working team that had good goaltending and a lot of puckluck was able to make the playoffs and win a round. That team had 18 year old Sam Bennett, 20 year old Monahan, 21 year old Gaudreau, and 23 year old Ferland. Backlund and Brodie were mid 20’s and Gio was in his prime and playing at an elite level.

Fast forward to today this is a very different rebuild. The Flames moved on from a ton of veterans and have a surplus of future assets which is a great start to a rebuild. They also have a veteran 6 who are all quality players and contributing to a strong culture. Bahl, Coronato, Zary are all early-mid 20’s pieces that look like top 4/top 6 mainstays. Wolf is trending toward superstar status over the next few seasons. He has just dominated every league he has played in and looks very good and is likely a Calder finalist.

For myself personally I felt that Gaudreau/Monahan/Bennett were all high potential to be elite players down the road. I feel like Wolf and Parekh have superstar potential but this team is lacking that upfront superstar talent. Hopefully they end up with a high pick in 2026 but as far as this year goes they might as well push for a spot and see what happens. At this stage I don’t see this team falling off a cliff and plummeting down the standings.

[stemit14]

It really does look like the flames are dangling at the edge of a big drop in the standings. They have been in this win 1, lose 1, 2win 2, lose 2 for a while now it seems. This series against St. Louis was big and they didn’t get a point out of it. They played hard but they looked tired in both games and just struggled so much to generate quality chances. The loss of Zary is already being felt. They struggle so much to make plays. And he’s going to be out for a while.

A couple players that we don’t talk about a lot as far as the drop off in their games are Backlund and Coleman. Great vets and great leaders on the team but it’s more and more evident that the production drop off players get in their mid 30s seems to be happening to them now. Coronato on their line looks like a 1st line player playing with 4th line players. Plays are constantly dying on their sticks. Not saying there’s a better option right now for him. If Zary was healthy, I would say it’s time to try putting them together and see if they can grow as a pairing like Monahan and Gaudreau did.

I think Backlund will and should be kept this year as the captain of the team but I would be fine trading Coleman if someone stepped up with a decent offer. Either way, if the flames do end up acquiring a young center this year/next year, I would like to see Backlund/Coleman transition to being a strong 4th line instead of an over-works 2nd line. The fourth line of this team is getting dominated pretty consistently so slotting in a new 2nd/3rd line over the next year would be ideal.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dino7c

24 teams have less than 2M in cap space, more than half the league is over the cap...its value might not be at an all time high but its certainly there. Cap going up won't matter because players will just be getting bigger deals based on % of cap.

According to Puckpedia, 11 teams are over the cap and using LTIR. That's actually down significantly from the last couple of years, where it really was over half the league.

I agree with the rest of what you said.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

It's interesting how on page 15 of the thread I pointed out that our home point percentage was 72.5% and after 2 loses it drops to 65.9%.

That right there dropped the Flames to 15th overall with only 7 more spots to drop to get into the top 10 of the draft. The only team in the 10 spots below us with a losing record right now is the Flyers.

Lightning - 1 point behind with 2 games in hand
Blues - 1 point behind but 2 less games to go, however they have a huge opportunity next week with a rare back-to-back homestand against the Flames
UTC - 2 points behind, even on games
Penguins - 2 points behind but 2 less games to go
Senators - 3 points behind, one game in hand and a 6-4-0 record in their last 10
Blue Jackets - 3 points behind, but 1 less game to go
Canadiens - 4 points behind, even on games, riding a 7-3-0 record in last 10

The Red Wings and Ducks are also both 6-4 in L10 and are only 5 points back.
The Rangers are still playing horribly this year but are still only 6 points back and you know they want to be back in the playoffs.

All of that information just goes to show that there are a number of teams looking to jump over the Flames and it won't take a significant losing skid to get 7 out of 10 of those teams to pass us in the standings.

Trading any of Andersson, Coleman, or Kadri would probably send the team into a freefall down the standings... but I do not think that is necessary at this time. Wait to see how the road trips pan out and if we continue to drop games at home then we'll likely be in the top 10 of the draft already.

Now at 44 games played. Back to 15th OA and there is still a viable path to the playoffs as well as to 9th OA draft pick.

Standings update:
- Lightning and CBJ have passed us. Lightning was expected, CBJ is a surprise.
- Bruins (46GP) are tied with us for points but we have games in hand.
- Senators (44GP), Canadiens (44GP), Canucks (44GP), and Blues (46GP) are all 1 point back.
- Red Wings (44GP) continue to surge and are now 3 points back and the Flyers (46GP) have gained ground and are also 3 points back.
- Rangers (44GP) are turning around and are now only 4 points back. With 2 games in hand on the Bruins they could fight for WC2 in the East.

Penguins have slipped and are 5 points back. UTC have fallen apart and are 6 points back.

The rest of the month looks tough for the Flames schedule.
- 2 expected wins at home against the Sabres and Ducks
- 4 expected losses against the Jets (A), Wild (A), Jets (A), and Caps (H)