Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

Maybe it is nothing but it's more than just Carney standing by an unknown man with with Ghiselle Maxwell near by lol. The issue here is your characterization of the story, if it was a big nothing burger in your head, you wouldn't need to characterize in favor of Carney. Your post is, how would you say misinformation.

Also i am suprised you haven't learned that sometimes partisan media is actually right, ala Hunters laptop.

Clean it up Pickles!

Whoa. Did Hunter’s laptop have pics of him with Epstein and Maxwell? I am not really certain what you’re trying to get at, cause I think that was Trump, who by the way, who seemed absolutely gleeful in his photos with them. So, maybe not much can be made of a photo of Carney a distance away from Maxwell? Unless you think Carney is at the same level of gross as sex offender Trump?

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I didn't say it was the main point. Ya'll discuss the HUGE CPC numbers ad nauseam, so ya, I thought it was interesting to see potentials and discuss. I wasn't omitting anything. Good lord, is there a list of things I need to extract and comment on before I can comment on anything else in a poll? And despite having an A+ rating on 338, your first point is that they are somehow favouring Liberals and I absolutely shouldn't be discussing them because they came out...today? You alright upstairs?

My original post was countering PF's delusion of Carney actually winning next election, while aggregate poll number are showing CPC with a 24 point lead and continuing to gain despite the attempted rhetoric and narrative.

You replied to my post by presenting an interesting bit verbatim "that should make Conservatives a bit nervous.", because out of undecided voters that 47% of those would lean Liberal, and 41% would lean CPC. You did so while completely omitting the main poll details.

What exactly are you attempting to debate there? What is interesting about a 6% gap in undecided voters that should make Conservatives a bit nervous? Why don't you explain? 48.9% polled believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good politician? Maybe he should stick around based on that alone since you mentioned it.

I mean...??? what is going in your head there bringing that up?

And about Nanos, until very recently, most Nanos polls (which use a rolling method) would generally have an unusual discrepancy in the gap between CPC and Liberals compared to other peers (also highly rated polls), examples below, perhaps as a result of polling location or polling methods. Maybe the more correct observation was overestimating Liberal support. That even Nanos has such a gap now (27 points), means things are extremely dire for Liberals.

Ipsos
A+
2024-06-13 1,001 24 42 18 3 8 4 CPC +18
Nanos Research
A+
2024-06-13 1,000 (1/4) 27 41 18 4 8 2 CPC +14
Abacus Data
A−
2024-06-10 1,500 22 42 19 5 8 3 CPC +20



Angus Reid
B+
2024-01-17 1,620 24 41 20 4 9 1 CPC +17
Nanos Research
A+
2024-01-12 1,000 (1/4) 28 39 20 3 7 2 CPC +11
Abacus Data
A−
2024-01-07 1,500 24 41 18 4 7 5 CPC +17


https://338canada.com/polls.htm

Take it another way, since Jan 2024, according to Nanos, CPC has built an extra 16 points lead over the Liberals (where last year folks in this thread were claiming Poilievre may have peaked early).

[Torture]

Clark's out. Let's get declaring over with so we can get on with this Freeland v Carney race.

It's an insanely uphill battle and he's crazy to take it on, but IMO it has to be Carney for the Liberals to even have a chance in the next election. Yes Freeland orchestrated Trudeau's take down and has tried to distance herself, but she is just way to tied to him.

[Wormius]

I am not sure about the LPC leadership race procedures, but if only Carney decided to run could he just be acclaimed and start as PM immediately instead of drawing this out?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Firebot

My original post was countering PF's delusion of Carney actually winning next election, while aggregate poll number are showing CPC with a 24 point lead and continuing to gain despite the attempted rhetoric and narrative.

That’s not what I said, but good effort on the attempted rhetoric and narrative.

[Ashasx]

If Carney were to lose the election to a Conservative majority as the leader of the Liberals, what are the chances he stays on as leader?

This all just seems like a waste to me.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

That’s not what I said, but good effort on the attempted rhetoric and narrative.

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Carney is absolutely terrifying for right wingers because he can actually win.

Ok...let's play the game.

Win what?

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

If Carney were to lose the election to a Conservative majority as the leader of the Liberals, what are the chances he stays on as leader?

This all just seems like a waste to me.

I suspect he would stay on and run in the next election. It would kinda make sense to give him more rope than just this one election (my opinion).

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

If Carney were to lose the election to a Conservative majority as the leader of the Liberals, what are the chances he stays on as leader?

This all just seems like a waste to me.

He and she isn't going to lose to the whitewing dweeb with the whiny pomeranian yap.

[trackercowe]

I like Carney as well, and I am actually in that Edmonton City Centre riding. People are are pretty upset over the Randy Boissonnault situation, so I don't know if he should run here. He may not win, as this riding constantly flip flops between PC and Liberal. I agree with those who suggest Carney would be better off running in four years, the chances of the Liberals flipping the current numbers are basically zero. Everyone thought Kamala would gain momentum in taking over from Biden a few months before the election, and look what happened there.

Carney might be able to gain a few seats, but I don't see how we don't have a Conservative majority in a few months. PP would have to severely stub his toe for that to happen. Even winning debates likely won't make a major difference. It would need to be a gamebreaking mistake by the PC.

How many people are going to change their vote after the mess Trudeau has left?

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

He and she isn't going to lose to the whitewing dweeb with the whiny pomeranian yap.

I can see the Liberals gaining a little bit of momentum back with Carney, but I don't see how there's enough time to pull them out of Conservative majority territory at this point.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Firebot

My original post was countering PF's delusion of Carney actually winning next election, while aggregate poll number are showing CPC with a 24 point lead and continuing to gain despite the attempted rhetoric and narrative.

You replied to my post by presenting an interesting bit verbatim "that should make Conservatives a bit nervous.", because out of undecided voters that 47% of those would lean Liberal, and 41% would lean CPC. You did so while completely omitting the main poll details.

What exactly are you attempting to debate there? What is interesting about a 6% gap in undecided voters that should make Conservatives a bit nervous? Why don't you explain? 48.9% polled believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good politician? Maybe he should stick around based on that alone since you mentioned it.

I mean...??? what is going in your head there bringing that up?
-snip-

I'm not debating anything, I found that part an interesting point for discussion, you thought it was a call to arms, apparently. And where did it say undecided? Did I miss that bit? I ctrl-f'd undecided and there is only one irrelevant mention of the word. And I didn't omit anything. I provided the link, and the point I found interesting to discuss. You aren't very good at this.

My point was(since we are ready to get back to that) that the Liberals have more accessible voters than the CPC. They are obviously not leaning that way right now, but it is the future potential. You know, once the Liberals have a leader so people can then actually start making up their minds? I know, it's a crazy thought when you have to consider this may alter the pol numbers at some point. Wild stuff. So since the last time the Conservatives won an election(a minority, mind you) and Harper got 39.62, well, you might not be able to make out the BLISTERING MAJORITY y'all keep going on about, if you only have 41% accessible. Back in 2018 this number was 46.3%(https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/...18-06-01-R.pdf), so they've actually lost ground on this metric, and I suspect the more Canadians hear PP speak, the less accessible voters will exist for them) Does this make sense?

And I have no idea why you are re-interpreting accessible voters as "leaning" in your post. That's not what they are. They are voters willing to consider voting for a party. A voter could be accessible to many parties, or only one, or none.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

I like Carney as well, and I am actually in that Edmonton City Centre riding. People are are pretty upset over the Randy Boissonnault situation, so I don't know if he should run here. He may not win, as this riding constantly flip flops between PC and Liberal. I agree with those who suggest Carney would be better off running in four years, the chances of the Liberals flipping the current numbers are basically zero. Everyone thought Kamala would gain momentum in taking over from Biden a few months before the election, and look what happened there.

How many people are going to change their vote after the mess Trudeau has left?

When they find out after the attack ads that makes you pretty much a antivax deplorable if you vote for PP. Albertans wont' give a crap, they voted for Danielle Smith. Ontario will.

[Fuzz]

Dammit, how did I end up in Firebot trap? I'm out. I've made my points, hopefully clear enough.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I can see the Liberals gaining a little bit of momentum back with Carney, but I don't see how there's enough time to pull them out of Conservative majority territory at this point.

Pierre Pollywantacracker = Danielle Smith. They only need southern Ontario.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Ok...let's play the game.

Win what?

Is everything a game to you? Weird. Try having a normal human conversation.

Leadership and an election, but not necessarily this one (I don’t think he would). I think Freeland could maybe win leadership, but I don’t think she’d ever win a federal election so it seems like a terrible choice.

[Looch City]

I still have my doubts that Pierre Poilievre will ever become Prime Minister.

The guy just doesn't have what it takes. Can't even get security clearance. Hard pass.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Looch City

I still have my doubts that Pierre Poilievre will ever become Prime Minister.

The guy just doesn't have what it takes. Can't even get security clearance. Hard pass.

Nice hair though

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by Wormius

I am not sure about the LPC leadership race procedures, but if only Carney decided to run could he just be acclaimed and start as PM immediately instead of drawing this out?

No democracy has to happen first
Canada is not a fascist country

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by GGG

What does architect of the Carbon Tax mean? Carbon taxes started in right wing think tanks as an alternative to Cap and trade systems. They are generally thought to be less damaging than cap and trade. If you want to have an architect of the Carbon Tax you might go back to Stelmech in Alberta who started Carbon pricing in Canada and whose system was quite similar to the industrial Carbon tax in Canada.

In 2018 the liberals passed the Carbon Tax, Carney was governor of the Bank of England from 2013 - 2020. So can you walk me through this point.

What’s your objection to Bankers running as politicians, I assume you also didn’t like Drama teachers.

Carney is a strong animating force behind the policies adopted by the Liberals in terms of carbon taxation, etc. We now know these policies are not practical because they are unsustainable (heh) in the face of any economic headwinds. They are far too inflationary to ever be practical. Encouraging their deployment in climate-change-irrelevant jurisdictions like Canada is exactly the type of virtue signaling but ultimately pointless exercises that are the signature of Trudeau and the modern Liberal party. He has been a close advisor to Trudeau (officially and unofficially) for the last 4 years, as the country has rung up deficit after record deficit. He is not a beacon of fiscal responsibility.

Carney is a keynsian and oversaw monetary, and often ultimately fiscal, policies through the GFC and since that have driven up asset prices and financial assets in the name of "stability". This is effectively a wealth transfer from the poor to the rich, and we have seen the results in wealth inequality. The financial systems capturing the state have been responsible for wealth inequality, and this setup has been wrongly described as "capitalism". He's one of the global authoritarian elite technocrats that people should insta-hate. The fact that progressives see him as some great new hope against the the current national and global shift towards anti-authoritarian policies is fascinating.

Central bankers should not be running for office, and convention has generally been that they don't. It is instantly obvious that this creates a conflict of interest for the banker. There are some institutions which should not see cross-over. We wouldn't want a supreme court justice to run for the PM job for the same reason.