Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Tonight's game really should end any lingering debate.
There's no way this team is near the Chicago bad level needed to drop heavily.

They could slip a bit, but not top 10.

It was pretty crazy how much better the Flames looked. My biggest issue with getting 100% onto the Flames bandwagon is that when the Flames play legit contenders they often look like the Hawks did against us.

With Vancouver floundering though, the Flames look primed to hold onto that 8th playoff spot. St. Louis, Utah, and Vancouver look like the only real competition for it, with St. Louis looking like the strongest competitor right now.

The Flames need to find a way to score more goals and more consistently. Having Coronato, Zary, and Pelletier all emerge as 40-50 point players is huge. That satisfies a lot of the depth issues. Combine that with Coleman, Backlund, Huberdeau, and Kadri and you have 7 forwards at or over .5 PPG, which is competitive. The Flames offensive contributions from the defence have been abysmal since Andersson forgot how to score. If the Flames had a legit PP defenceman they might actually have something.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Look at Oettinger in DAL, and Shesterkin in NY. Neither team has that elite #1 C like a MacKinnon. But both have an elite goalie. And both are perennial contenders as a result. (Yes, NY has fallen off a cliff this year, but that only proves my point: the roster isn't that terrific, it's that they have an elite goalie)

Looking at the rangers too, their biggest names arent even their top picks. Kakkos been moved, Laf looks good, but not a gamechanger. Developing depth along with an elite goalie could work too. Especially if later round picks like Mews, Misa, Kerins, etc can continue to develop into NHLers.

If Parekh becomes what we think he can be, thats a gamebreaking player

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

Looking at the rangers too, they're biggest names arent even their top picks. Kakkos been moved, Laf looks good, but not a gamechanger. Developing depth along with an elite goalie could work too. Especially if later round picks like Mews, Misa, Kerins, etc can continue to develop into NHLers.

If Parekh becomes what we think he can be, thats a gamebreaking player

The Rangers are kind of like the Sutter Flames minus the top picks. Relying on a goalie and 1 star forward to carry the team and trying to add pieces through free agency and trade.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Knut

To those wanting to trade Andersson right now to "tank" are not thinking of what the potential return would be. If we wait until the offseason we might be able to pull out an extra prospect or upgrade a pick to a first round pick. That would offset the value of the lost pick this season.

The first round pick being lost keeps being looked at in Isolation. It is not the only asset that can be moved/come in. If we lose a pick between 14-18 but Wolf, Zary, Coronato, Pelletier and Bahl all develop in a winning environment + we deal Andersson in the offseason for higher value than in midseason, I would say that is a win.

Once we lose the pick the same posters will throw the player picked by Montreal into every equation until that player busts out.

Teams are also often likely to move their firsts when they see there's nothing that can help them, within their desired window, left on the draft board. If the only players left are 3 years out from contributing, Andersson begins to look a lot more appealing.

[TheIronMaiden]

The Flames play 20 more games before the March 7th trade deadline. 51 days. A lot of going to happen in the time. I think it is too early to tell where exactly the Flames will be in the standings and with respect to trade value.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by sa226

I'm seeing confusing sentiment, I just want to make sure I understand at this point. The Flames won't be without a 1st round pick this year correct? Its just that they will surrender the better of the picks between Calgary and Florida? So at this point with only 3 draft spots separating them, woo hoo lets go Flames! Correct?

But if they managed to slip into the top 10, they surrender the Florida pick still correct?

I mean, unless you're slipping into the top 5, even the separation between 10 and say 15 could be pretty negligible in 5 years anyway.

Theres a chance Florida could go on a heater to finish the season, but hopefully they kinda stay in that mushy middle and the Flames still come out with a decent pick.

I say go Playoffs!

Funny what three weeks will do... when this thread was started, the Flames had lost six of their last 10 and were clearly sliding out of playoff contention, and Florida was pretty close to the top 5 in the league.

The picks were going to be 15-20 apart at that time and for a rebuilding team, losing a top 10 pick for a late first round pick is a big deal.

Florida has now lost six of their last 10 games and the Flames have won 6 of their last 10 (and the last 3 games) making us wonder why this is even being discussed.

Love it.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes. Well, 36 for STL (after these games)

But when you're 9 points back with 2 less games to play, it is out of your hands, you need help.

STL would be at 44 points in 46 games. To get to 96, they would need to go 26-10-0. I mean, is it possible? Sure. But in reality, they would need significant help. You can hope 1 team will falter, but you can't expect 2 teams to fall back (CGY and VAN).

If CGY wins both in regulation, STL is done.

Lots of things can happen.

Last year on January 1
Arizona was in a playoff spot. They missed by 21 points.
The Oilers were out of a playoff spot. They made it by 12 points.
Jersey was 1 point out. They missed by 10 points.
Philly was in by 3 points. They missed by 4 points.

While not super likely if they are out by 9 points, some teams will make big moves in the second half.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

The Rangers are kind of like the Sutter Flames minus the top picks. Relying on a goalie and 1 star forward to carry the team and trying to add pieces through free agency and trade.

I think you're right about the Sutter Flames but in a different way.

The Rangers started this year as the defending President Trophy winners and had five players last year who were in the top 50 in scoring (almost all at a point per game, which is a star player), and a star goalie.

The Canucks last year had four players in the top 50 in scoring and a stud goalie and finished sixth overall.

Both of those teams have the talent but are falling apart this year because of pour team culture, which is what was wrong with the Sutter Flames. Team culture is a lot more important than many of us think and a big reason why Conroy and the team has been working on it.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

I think you're right about the Sutter Flames but in a different way.

The Rangers started this year as the defending President Trophy winners and had five players last year who were in the top 50 in scoring (almost all at a point per game, which is a star player), and a star goalie.

The Canucks last year had four players in the top 50 in scoring and a stud goalie and finished sixth overall.

Both of those teams have the talent but are falling apart this year because of pour team culture, which is what was wrong with the Sutter Flames. Team culture is a lot more important than many of us think and a big reason why Conroy and the team has been working on it.

That is why building your culture internally from home grown talent works, and allows you to bring a piece or 2 in.

When you are building your team with parts of other teams what is your culture.

It worked with Vegas because they had talent and those guys got taken in a expansion draft so they had a chip on their shoulder.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Tonight's game really should end any lingering debate.

I really enjoyed watching the game last night (and kudos to the Prime team for being better than Sportsnet). It was a fun game and a good road win but it was still just a win against the worst team in the league.

I hardly think it is the definitive statement of the season to end all debates about which direction that the team will be going in.

If we win in St.Louis, then I would agree that this season is starting to get out of hand for the top-10 draft pick but we would need to win some of the road games against the Jets, Wild, or Caps to really end the debate.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The Flames play 20 more games before the March 7th trade deadline. 51 days. A lot of going to happen in the time. I think it is too early to tell where exactly the Flames will be in the standings and with respect to trade value.

10 - 5 - 5 is my prediction. They'll be a point or two in or out.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

That is why building your culture internally from home grown talent works, and allows you to bring a piece or 2 in.

When you are building your team with parts of other teams what is your culture.

It worked with Vegas because they had talent and those guys got taken in a expansion draft so they had a chip on their shoulder.

Yeah, posted in the trade rumour thread that there probably won't be a ton of higher end UFAs available this year -- and maybe not in the next few years either. With the cap going up considerably, most teams will be able to resign their best players and won't be expecting as many available UFA options.

There will always be a couple good ones available who just want to test free agency or are looking for a change, but internal growth might be even more important over the next few years.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

It worked with Vegas because they had talent and those guys got taken in a expansion draft so they had a chip on their shoulder.

That is highly misleading. Vegas is a unicorn of expansion teams. No expansion team before or since has had the luck that Vegas had with the players that were available or the bonehead moves that GMs made to try to protect certain players.

The fact that Columbus gift wrapped a 1st and a 2nd to Vegas so that they would take Karlsson and Florida gave R.Smith and a 4th to take Marchessault is bonkers.

Lessons were learnt because of how hard Vegas took advantage of the other GMs and by the time we got to the Seattle expansion, the results were nowhere near the same.

The expectation is that future expansions would look more like the Kraken and never again like Golden Knights.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

I still maintain that we will never be a contender if we don't tank.

People may laugh at Chicago or San Jose, but I'd trade the entire team for Bedard or Celebrini. Just having a player like that gives you the potential to win the cup one day.

But yeah, it's clear since we aren't going to tank that cheering for playoffs would be fun too.

How has that worked out for Buffalo? You can't just tank and become a contender, it doesn't work that way.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

How has that worked out for Buffalo? You can't just tank and become a contender, it doesn't work that way.

They'd look a lot better if they kept Eichel

[GFG#1]

Originally Posted by Bonded

They'd look a lot better if they kept Eichel

or if they didn't get fleeced by the lottery and had McDavid

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As to the first sentence, you can say the exact same thing about the top pick: it helps, but in most cases isn't necessary.

As for the other 2 sentences: McDavid, Matthews, Hischier, Dahlin, Hughes and Lafreniere say hi (every #1 from 2015-2020)

Look at the list of the cup winners over the past 15 years. You absolutely need game breaking talent taken from a top pick to win a cup these days:

Panthers - Barkov (pick 2), Ekblad (Pick 1)

Golden Knights - Eichel (pick 2), Pietrangelo (pick 4)

Avalanche - Mackinnon (pick 1), Makar (pick 4)

Lightning - Stamkos (pick 1)

Blues - Pietrangelo (pick 4)

Capitals - Ovechkin (pick 1)

Penguins - Crosby (pick 1), Malkin (pick 2)

Blackhawks Toews (pick 3), Kane (pick 1)

Kings - Doughty (pick 2)

Bruins - Seguin (pick 2)

I can't believe anyone here is denying it when the proof is right there. You NEED a top 4 pick at minimum to win a cup and in most cases more elite talent.

A lot of these teams were surrounded with other good to great players. The surrounding cast matters a lot. But you need the elite game breaking talent at the center of it.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Wolven

That is highly misleading. Vegas is a unicorn of expansion teams. No expansion team before or since has had the luck that Vegas had with the players that were available or the bonehead moves that GMs made to try to protect certain players.

The fact that Columbus gift wrapped a 1st and a 2nd to Vegas so that they would take Karlsson and Florida gave R.Smith and a 4th to take Marchessault is bonkers.

Lessons were learnt because of how hard Vegas took advantage of the other GMs and by the time we got to the Seattle expansion, the results were nowhere near the same.

The expectation is that future expansions would look more like the Kraken and never again like Golden Knights.

I just mean the culture, and that is probably why Seattle is spinning their wheels. Francis screwed it up and they aren't very good.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

Look at the list of the cup winners over the past 15 years. You absolutely need game breaking talent taken from a top pick to win a cup these days:

Panthers - Barkov (pick 2), Ekblad (Pick 1)

Golden Knights - Eichel (pick 2), Pietrangelo (pick 4)

Avalanche - Mackinnon (pick 1), Makar (pick 4)

Lightning - Stamkos (pick 1)

Blues - Pietrangelo (pick 4)

Capitals - Ovechkin (pick 1)

Penguins - Crosby (pick 1), Malkin (pick 2)

Blackhawks Toews (pick 3), Kane (pick 1)

Kings - Doughty (pick 2)

Bruins - Seguin (pick 2)

I can't believe anyone here is denying it when the proof is right there. You NEED a top 4 pick at minimum to win a cup and in most cases more elite talent.

A lot of these teams were surrounded with other good to great players. The surrounding cast matters a lot. But you need the elite game breaking talent at the center of it.

Seguin didn’t matter for the Bruins and Vegas traded for theirs. So the only path isn’t high picks which is all anyone is saying. Chances are much better picking high though

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Seguin didn’t matter for the Bruins and Vegas traded for theirs. So the only path isn’t high picks which is all anyone is saying. Chances are much better picking high though

How many cups have the Bruins won without Seguin? I really hate this argument that a top player didn't matter. When it clearly was one of the differences in that cup finals.

It also ignores the other 14 of 15 cup winners to make a point. Of course anyone could win a cup, I could win the lottery tomorrow. But the chances are so low without a top pick player.

And also good players are begging to get traded to Vegas, everyone wants to go there. No one wants to come to Calgary unless they are being overpaid. Not a remotely comparable situation.