Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Tonight's game really should end any lingering debate.
There's no way this team is near the Chicago bad level needed to drop heavily.

They could slip a bit, but not top 10.

[GreenLantern2814]

This group making the playoffs on the back of Dustin Wolf’s elite level play and the resurgence of Jonathan Huberdeau is worth so much more than a 16-20th overall pick.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Tonight's game really should end any lingering debate.
There's no way this team is near the Chicago bad level needed to drop heavily.

They could slip a bit, but not top 10.

They are only 6 points from falling into a top 10 pick.

A bad couple weeks could be all it would take.

I don't see it happening though, especially if Sharangovich and/or Kuzmenko start scoring.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

They are only 6 points from falling into a top 10 pick.

A bad couple weeks could be all it would take.

I don't see it happening though, especially if Sharangovich and/or Kuzmenko start scoring.

This is mathematically incorrect.
It takes sustained sucking to drop that far.

The bottom 10 teams are trending to 82 points or less, last year it was 81.

For the Flames to finish with 82 points or less, they need a maximum 33 points in the remaining 40 games, or a 0.4125 win %.
Only Chicago, SJ and Nashville have played that poorly this season.

So the Flames would have to play as bad as those teams have to date for the rest of our season.
You're over simplifying it to just look at points above the bottom 10 and ignore teams having to jump over each other, play each other (someone must lose points), these teams will lose points anyway etc.

The Flames could lose their next 4 straight and only drop 3 spots in point %.
They need a serious downturn to get into the bottom 10 now.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

This is mathematically incorrect.
It takes sustained sucking to drop that far.

The bottom 10 teams are trending to 82 points or less, last year it was 81.

For the Flames to finish with 82 points or less, they need a maximum 33 points in the remaining 40 games, or a 0.4125 win %.
Only Chicago, SJ and Nashville have played that poorly this season.

So the Flames would have to play as bad as those teams have to date for the rest of our season.
You're over simplifying it to just look at points above the bottom 10 and ignore teams having to jump over each other, play each other (someone must lose points), these teams will lose points anyway etc.

The Flames could lose their next 4 straight and only drop 3 spots in point %.
They need a serious downturn to get into the bottom 10 now.

What happens if the Flames lost 5 in a row? (IE had a bad couple of weeks)

[dino7c]

What happens if the Panthers lose 5 in a row?! Teams are virtually tied now

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Tonight's game really should end any lingering debate.
There's no way this team is near the Chicago bad level needed to drop heavily.

They could slip a bit, but not top 10.

My work league team is near the Chicago bad level.

[stemit14]

Like the most of us on here, I’ve always looked at the worst case scenario where the flames give up a high pick to Montreal. For a change, there’s the possibility of the best case scenario where the flames and panthers finish right next to each other in the standings with the flames pick set to be 32nd overall and the panthers pick at 31st overall goes to Montreal. Would be one of the greatest trades the flames ever made in that case. And it would be hilarious for the flames to do what the oilers couldn’t against Florida - while also having an incredible redemption story for Huberdeau and Weegar.

I know. It’s a crazy scenario but it’s fun to dream about it. Edmonton would riot in this universe.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

What happens if the Flames lost 5 in a row? (IE had a bad couple of weeks)

Well the Flames are 5 points up on 10th place with 2 games in hand. So if they lost 5 in a row the Blues would have to go 2-0-1 in order for the teams to be tied. Seems unlikely that the Blues would pull that off.

A more likely scenario given the games in hand is that the Flames lose 8 in a row and the Blues go 3-3 and then the Flames limp into a top 10 draft spot. Of course if they maintain the 10th spot for the rest of the year and a team below the top 10 win one of the lottery spots they lose the pick anyway.

But the Flames probably have to lose 8 in a row and then continue to be bad for the rest of the year to get a top 10 pick.

[stemit14]

Interesting series in St. Louis this week. Rare for the NHL to do this. Will be very tough to do but if the flames can win both games on the road against St. Louis, that would pretty much end the Blues shot at the last Wild card spot. Two regulation wins by the Flames in St. Louis and the Blues will be 9 points back and the flames would have 2 games in hand.

Hopefully the flames have a killer instinct on this road trip. It really feels like the Blues season is on the line.

[Bingo]

Gap down to 3 spots by win percentage.

Florida 11th overall
Calgary 14th overall

Need to go .413 the rest of the way to get a bottom ten spot, which is 7 games under .500, or something like 16-23-1.

Lets sweep St. Louis, may as well be a playoff team now, bottom ten is unlikely.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

They are only 6 points from falling into a top 10 pick.

A bad couple weeks could be all it would take.

I don't see it happening though, especially if Sharangovich and/or Kuzmenko start scoring.

The problem with this thinking is that, it's exactly the same concept as being 6 points out of a playoff spot. In theory, it's only a 3 game point difference. The problem is all the other teams you have to leapfrog to get into that position. There are just too many teams between the Flames and that bottom 10 spot for it to be that simple. They'd have to out-suck a lot of bottom dwelling teams to do it. Sure, some of those teams might go on a winning streak, but a lot of them will continue to get similar level of points to where they are now.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

The problem with this thinking is that, it's exactly the same concept as being 6 points out of a playoff spot. In theory, it's only a 3 game point difference. The problem is all the other teams you have to leapfrog to get into that position. There are just too many teams between the Flames and that bottom 10 spot for it to be that simple. They'd have to out-suck a lot of bottom dwelling teams to do it. Sure, some of those teams might go on a winning streak, but a lot of them will continue to get similar level of points to where they are now.

True. However, it's a lot easier to climb down than climb up. To climb up in the standings, you have to win more games - hard to do, so you need help (the other teams not playing well). To climb down, you can do it yourself quite easily, simply by hitting the skids and going on a losing streak - no need for help from the other teams.

[The Yen Man]

But you also need other teams below you to go on winning streaks, which is also hard to do IMO. You have to out suck 8 non playoff teams. If that happens, that would mean the playoff teams are losing to them. Otherwise, those bottom teams are also playing each other. Throw in 3 point OT games, and I still think it's a lot harder to hit bottom 10 than people think.

[dissentowner]

There is no chance this team is picking top 10, that ship has sailed. All we can do is cheer for a playoff spot.

[Strange Brew]

The way I look at it, the Flames would need to accumulate 10 fewer points in the second half than they did in the first half. That would get them 84 points. Possible, but they just started second half with a win.

With this many games left, it really has nothing to do with other teams,

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

But you also need other teams below you to go on winning streaks, which is also hard to do IMO. You have to out suck 8 non playoff teams. If that happens, that would mean the playoff teams are losing to them. Otherwise, those bottom teams are also playing each other. Throw in 3 point OT games, and I still think it's a lot harder to hit bottom 10 than people think.

No you don't. You just need other teams to not tank. If they keep doing what they are doing, you can lose your way past them.

[Calgary4LIfe]

This is officially the start of the 2nd half of the season, and the Flames are in a playoff spot, and still playing well and looking like the same team from the start of the season - high work ethic is still easy to see, and they are not looking like a terrible team on ice, even if they are over-matched at times and the underlying metrics in some games are a bit ugly. They have only looked like garbage a handful of games at worst.


I am switching gears now and saying that you can't trade Andersson or any of the vets of substance this season. Sure, if someone offers you a premium, you take it and you don't look back. Nobody should really be off-limits when teams are willing to overpay. However, the way I see it, you can't sewer this season as the culture is really taking form here, and all the players are continuing to buy-in.


I mean, Barrie, Kuzmenko, etc., are free to go. l am iffy on moving Vladar at this point, simply because I do think he has been sheltering Wolf and taking some tough starts, and regardless of what his metrics say, he has looked outstanding in long stretches.



I do not want the Flames to buy - not even for low draft picks. This is not a cup winning (or cup contending) team by any stretch of the imagination. If the rug gets pulled out between now and the trade deadline, and the Flames fall out of the race, then yes, sell sell sell.



Otherwise, I hope that Conroy makes a few moves in this off-season, and the Flames end up picking high in the next two drafts. I can live with that. There are some damn fine looking Cs this draft, but I don't think you can pull the rug on a team that is still in it, as long as they are playing well. The 2nd half is going to be hard as teams really do whatever it takes to get in. My money is still on this team spiraling downwards by the deadline. I am just positing that Conroy simply can't pull that cord on the season until (or more appropriately, if or when) that happens.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Sweeping St. Louis would be a 5 game win streak the longest of the season.

Since December they have been consistent in alternating wins and losses or winning 2 in a row and losing 2 in a row.

[Rhett44]

I still maintain that we will never be a contender if we don't tank.

People may laugh at Chicago or San Jose, but I'd trade the entire team for Bedard or Celebrini. Just having a player like that gives you the potential to win the cup one day.

But yeah, it's clear since we aren't going to tank that cheering for playoffs would be fun too.