2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I would rather take a chance on a Shane Pinto 3.75 for next year, and he still has upside. Cozens has peaked and is signed long term.

Worst case Pinto is a 3rd liner and we get to sign him to a deal that pays him like 1.

Think both guys still have some upside...Cozens is 4 months younger so it's not he's at the end of his leash.

But some of the underlying numbers might show Pinto having a bit more "bad luck" that's deflating his counting numbers and could benefit from a change of scenary.

If we look at their last three seasons then Cozens has the better counting stats:

Cozens: 136 points in 202 games, 0.67 p/gp
Pinto: 72 points in 155 games, 0.46 p/gp

But when you look at the underlying numbers then Pinto looks like more of a play driver at 5v5.

Cozens: 49.1% xGF, 0.66 xGF% Relative, 9.19% on ice shooting %, .906 on ice save %, 0.998 PDO

Pinto: 53.3% xGF, 3.63% xGF% Relative, 7.04% on ice shooting %, .901 on ice save %, 0.971 PDO

Senators tend to be a much better team with Pinto on the ice (53.1% xGF) than with him off the ice (49.7% xGF).

For the Sabres Cozens doesn't really move the needle (49.1% xGF on ice vs 48.6% off ice).

So based on contract, and if you're looking for more of a "buy low" candidate then Pinto is probably the better bet for sure.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Not sure that's true that he'd be second round or later.

One of only 10 guys to play an NHL game from that draft.

Guys like Sandin-Pellika, Bonk, Perreault, Molendyk, Musty and Ritchie and Cristall might move ahead of him.

But guys like Willander, But, Wood, and maybe even Simashev might drop below him.

His AHL production is right in line with guys taken around him in that draft...

Dvorsky: 0.78 P/GP
Nadeau: 0.67 P/GP
Danielson: 0.58 P/GP
Honzek: 0.58 P/GP
Sale: 0.57 P/GP

So not amazing production, but it's hard to produce in the AHL as a 20 year old.

Maybe but I get Mark Jankowski vibes from this kid. Hope I'm wrong though because the Flames badly need a center in the system to pop.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Fair, but you could also look at a guy like Bennett who slid in his draft and he’s certainly not the only example. Did Bennett slide because of ‘character issues’ or is it more accurate to say he slid because the GM’s and scouts thought he simply wouldn’t be as good as those picked ahead of him despite what the majority of hockey journalists/fans/media thought. Given the mix at the top of this years draft it seems likely someone is going to slide, in the eyes of some, this year as well.

I just don’t think it’s all that insightful or wise to say a guy has character issues when, really, the vast majority people on this forum don’t know what they don’t know.

Maybe I am mixing him up with someone else, but a recent #1 pick didn't interview with other teams because they thought they are the ####.

Bennett slipped because of his shoulder injury no?

I just don't see the upside with him, and as Jerry said maybe other teams just like other players more but Utah took Cooley a pick before, and he is tracking better.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Niemo

Conroy wanting to push for the playoffs is troubling to me. F.....we aren't beating Vegas or any of the top 4 teams in a 7 game series (1% chance tops).

There's nothing wrong with wanting the team to push for a playoff spot even if they end up not making it. The whole point of playing sports is to win.

Just don't waste future assets on short term fixes. But he's already made the statement he's not interested in doing that.

[Vinny01]

I think Cozens for Sharangovich as a base would be an interesting deal for both teams. I would be okay if the Flames added a 2nd to get that one done. I loved what Sharangovich brought last year but was concerned about that extension when it was signed.

[Niemo]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Unshakable internal narrative.

That's how i interpreted Royle's last message. Note that I did not mean that we are trading for old guys or UFAs by pushing for the playoffs. Simply NOT entertaining trading our own guys like Rasmus and Kadri is the troubling part because we want to make the playoffs. Not prioritizing getting 1sts, but instead wanting 23-25 year olds is troubling as well. Have to take what the market is willing to give for depreciating assets.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Wait when did it come out that we are pushing for the playoffs?

I think he is para phrasing the Francis article yesterday.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I think Cozens for Sharangovich as a base would be an interesting deal for both teams. I would be okay if the Flames added a 2nd to get that one done. I loved what Sharangovich brought last year but was concerned about that extension when it was signed.

The Sabres have no need for a player like Sharangovich. They have a lot of wingers.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I think Cozens for Sharangovich as a base would be an interesting deal for both teams. I would be okay if the Flames added a 2nd to get that one done. I loved what Sharangovich brought last year but was concerned about that extension when it was signed.

Amazing what shooting 17.3% does for a guy. That contract extension was just baffling to me because why did they need to do it when they did it? He still had this full-season to assess him to see where things landed with him. To me, it was a reactionary signing rooted in the Flames trying to show that "hey, some players like it here!"

This year:

GF%: 42.11
xGF%: 51.72
SCF%: 50.66
HDCF%: 47.92
HDGF%: 44.44
Offensive Zone Start %: 52.59

It's not the worst, but it's just the timing of that extension was silly.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Amazing what shooting 17.3% does for a guy. That contract extension was just baffling to me because why did they need to do it when they did it? He still had this full-season to assess him to see where things landed with him. To me, it was a reactionary signing rooted in the Flames trying to show that "hey, some players like it here!"

This year:

GF%: 42.11
xGF%: 51.72
SCF%: 50.66
HDCF%: 47.92
HDGF%: 44.44
Offensive Zone Start %: 52.59

It's not the worst, but it's just the timing of that extension was silly.

Meh, the Flames needed some bodies and may as well sign the guy they traded for and was playing well.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

The Sabres have no need for a player like Sharangovich. They have a lot of wingers.

So they don’t want prospects and picks, they have one of if not the most expensive bluelines in hockey, they have too many wingers, they have goalies. Are they only looking for a center in return?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Think both guys still have some upside...Cozens is 4 months younger so it's not he's at the end of his leash.

But some of the underlying numbers might show Pinto having a bit more "bad luck" that's deflating his counting numbers and could benefit from a change of scenary.

If we look at their last three seasons then Cozens has the better counting stats:

Cozens: 136 points in 202 games, 0.67 p/gp
Pinto: 72 points in 155 games, 0.46 p/gp

But when you look at the underlying numbers then Pinto looks like more of a play driver at 5v5.

Cozens: 49.1% xGF, 0.66 xGF% Relative, 9.19% on ice shooting %, .906 on ice save %, 0.998 PDO

Pinto: 53.3% xGF, 3.63% xGF% Relative, 7.04% on ice shooting %, .901 on ice save %, 0.971 PDO

Senators tend to be a much better team with Pinto on the ice (53.1% xGF) than with him off the ice (49.7% xGF).

For the Sabres Cozens doesn't really move the needle (49.1% xGF on ice vs 48.6% off ice).

So based on contract, and if you're looking for more of a "buy low" candidate then Pinto is probably the better bet for sure.

Play drivers are what we need, especially with a center. Thanks for finding those numbers.

Pinto probably comes cheaper as well, and if he tops out at 40 points or mid 30's we are not paying him 7.1M. With Cozens, I feel like he tops out at 40 points and you are stuck paying a 3rd liner 7.1M.

Other thing is faceoffs, I don't think people put enough value on faceoffs but Craig does it was in the article. Not just 5v5 but special teams, winning a draw on the PK you kill 15 seconds right away and now the PP is trying to reenter the zone and face a set defence.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

So they don’t want prospects and picks, they have one of if not the most expensive bluelines in hockey, they have too many wingers, they have goalies. Are they only looking for a center in return?

Probably. They don’t have to trade Cozens so why weaken their centre depth.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Amazing what shooting 17.3% does for a guy. That contract extension was just baffling to me because why did they need to do it when they did it? He still had this full-season to assess him to see where things landed with him. To me, it was a reactionary signing rooted in the Flames trying to show that "hey, some players like it here!"

This year:

GF%: 42.11
xGF%: 51.72
SCF%: 50.66
HDCF%: 47.92
HDGF%: 44.44
Offensive Zone Start %: 52.59

It's not the worst, but it's just the timing of that extension was silly.

It's funny because you seem to slam him for his year last year being shooting percentage driven, but then don't acknowledge that this year is actually a much bigger career outlier when it comes to both individual and on-ice shooting percentage.

20/21: 14.0% iSH%, 47.0% xGF, 45.9% GF, 10.8% On Ice
21/22: 14.3% iSH%, 52.9% xGF, 44.3% GF, 10.8% On Ice
22/23: 9.9% iSH%, 52.4% xGF, 45.6% GF, 8.9% On Ice
23/24: 17.3% iSH%, 48.6% xGF, 39.0% GF, 10.7% On Ice

24/25: 8.5% iSH%, 51.7% xGF, 42.1% GF, 6.2% On Ice

The biggest outliers on this page are his individual and on-ice shooting percentage this season.

I'd agree with you more if they went and gave him $6.5M+ but $5.75M x 5 for a guy that has the skill to score 30 on his good seasons is still not a terrible contract and seemed like pretty fair value at the time.

I also think he's playing through some nagging injury the team hasn't disclosed. Because it is weird that they haven't used him much on the PK this year even with the team struggling on the PK. He's averaged 58 second per game on the PK this year, and has the best xGA per 60 of all forwards that have PKed for at least 30 minutes this year.

Last year (especially after the Lindholm trade) he was playing over 1:30 per game on the PK and had the best xGA per 60 on the team and led the team in shorthanded points with 7.

So not sure why they haven't used him more on the PK this year (they need to use Pelletier there more too, he was an elite PKer for the Wranglers)

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Maybe I am mixing him up with someone else, but a recent #1 pick didn't interview with other teams because they thought they are the ####.

Bennett slipped because of his shoulder injury no?

I just don't see the upside with him, and as Jerry said maybe other teams just like other players more but Utah took Cooley a pick before, and he is tracking better.

You might be thinking of Michkov. According to Friedman, he had let it be known he wanted to go to the Flyers.

Did Bennett slide because of his shoulder? I doubt it. I know that’s a popular belief but I’m skeptical. Has that injury hampered his career? Not to my knowledge. I don’t think he’s had reoccurring shoulder issues. I think the most accurate thing to say is simply that the other teams had other players ranked higher. O need to squint and try to find reasons, such as uninformed’character issues’ which could mean basically everything and anything.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Play drivers are what we need, especially with a center. Thanks for finding those numbers.

Pinto probably comes cheaper as well, and if he tops out at 40 points or mid 30's we are not paying him 7.1M. With Cozens, I feel like he tops out at 40 points and you are stuck paying a 3rd liner 7.1M.

Other thing is faceoffs, I don't think people put enough value on faceoffs but Craig does it was in the article. Not just 5v5 but special teams, winning a draw on the PK you kill 15 seconds right away and now the PP is trying to reenter the zone and face a set defence.

How does cozens only top out at 35-40 points? He’s 23 and gotten more than 40 each year. He had a horrendous start to the year and he’s already back to 40 point average for this year with half the games remaining. I get you don’t like him , but come on.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's funny because you seem to slam him for his year last year being shooting percentage driven, but then don't acknowledge that this year is actually a much bigger career outlier when it comes to both individual and on-ice shooting percentage.

20/21: 14.0% iSH%, 47.0% xGF, 45.9% GF, 10.8% On Ice
21/22: 14.3% iSH%, 52.9% xGF, 44.3% GF, 10.8% On Ice
22/23: 9.9% iSH%, 52.4% xGF, 45.6% GF, 8.9% On Ice
23/24: 17.3% iSH%, 48.6% xGF, 39.0% GF, 10.7% On Ice

24/25: 8.5% iSH%, 51.7% xGF, 42.1% GF, 6.2% On Ice

The biggest outliers on this page are his individual and on-ice shooting percentage this season.

20/21: 14%, 16G, 14A, 54GP

21/22: 14.3%, 24G, 22A, 76GP

22/23: 9.9%, 13G, 17A, 75GP, Healthy Scratch in playoffs because if he isn't scoring, he's not very effective and he lost his roster spot

*Flames acquire him, sign him to reasonable 2-year deal*

23/24: 17.3%, 31G, 28A, 82GP

*Flames give him a 5 year extension, 1 year before required*

24/25: 8.5%, 6G, 5A, 33GP

He's been invisible all season.

The thing I'm slamming is the timing of that 5-year extension. It didn't need to happen when it happened. I think it was done for optics, rather than merit.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

So they don’t want prospects and picks, they have one of if not the most expensive bluelines in hockey, they have too many wingers, they have goalies. Are they only looking for a center in return?

The rumours are they want a center back in the trade. My guess they want someone with more experience and probably leadership .

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The thing I'm slamming is the timing of that 5-year extension. It didn't need to happen when it happened. I think it was done for optics, rather than merit.

I don't know if that's true at all. Once you decide you think the player is part of your future, you open negotiations. Because otherwise you increase the risk of him going to UFA. On the other hand signing him earlier increases the risk of being wrong. It's a benefit/risk analysis that I imagine they did.
I doubt they did it for optics.
They like the player. They see him being part of the solution.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't know if that's true at all. Once you decide you think the player is part of your future, you open negotiations. Because otherwise you increase the risk of him going to UFA. On the other hand signing him earlier increases the risk of being wrong. It's a benefit/risk analysis that I imagine they did.
I doubt they did it for optics.
They like the player. They see him being part of the solution.

Half this forum, probably more, is still seething over Treliving not signing Tkachuk to a max extension.