Can the Flames become a contender without tanking?

[Caged Great]

Basically the only way you can become a contender without top 5 picks is if you have all the horseshoes.

You need to hit hard with mid to late round picks and they need to become star players. You need multiple Gaudreau caliber 2nd round and on picks where you are getting legit top tier guys.

The only easy way to get them is if you're picking in the top 5-10 or so. We picked in the top 6 three times recently and hit homeruns with two of them, getting legitimate top line players in Monahan and Tkachuk.

It is possible to build a contender without drafting in the top 10, but realistically from the 1980's the Flames have only hit that hard on Wolf and Gaudreau since Fleury. Servicable players are useful. Guys like Mangiapane are helpful. The only way to win is if you have 5 top tier players and a good supporting cast. The Flames only have Wolf at the moment. Everyone else is either not yet in the NHL or not that good. Even Coronato and Zary as good as they've played are not at that level.

It's not easy getting good without being really bad. You can be stuck in the middle forever though. Oh wait that's almost the entire Flames history.

Teams that rebuild need 20-25 top prospects to turn it around. The Flames list in my opinion

Parekh, Gridin, Basha, Battaglia, Mews, Honzek, Morin, Suniev, Coronato, Grushnikov, Zary, Stromgren

There are a few the might push themselves onto that list (Eg. Kerins, have to see him at the NHL level)

12 is decent for this part of the rebuilding process. We still need a lot more youth, period.

[Roof-Daddy]

The Bruins have been a top team in the league for the most part of two decades now, not because they blew it up and drafted high, but because they drafted well and managed to find core players and superstars throughout the draft. They also made good UFA signings and trades.

Pastrnak 25th overall, Marchand 71st overall, McAvoy 14th overall, Swayman 111th overall and going back further they had guys like Bergeron 45th overall and Krejci 63rd overall lead their team for a decade.

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Basically the only way you can become a contender without top 5 picks is if you have all the horseshoes.

You need to hit hard with mid to late round picks and they need to become star players. You need multiple Gaudreau caliber 2nd round and on picks where you are getting legit top tier guys.

The only easy way to get them is if you're picking in the top 5-10 or so. We picked in the top 6 three times recently and hit homeruns with two of them, getting legitimate top line players in Monahan and Tkachuk.

It is possible to build a contender without drafting in the top 10, but realistically from the 1980's the Flames have only hit that hard on Wolf and Gaudreau since Fleury. Servicable players are useful. Guys like Mangiapane are helpful. The only way to win is if you have 5 top tier players and a good supporting cast. The Flames only have Wolf at the moment. Everyone else is either not yet in the NHL or not that good. Even Coronato and Zary as good as they've played are not at that level.

It's not easy getting good without being really bad. You can be stuck in the middle forever though. Oh wait that's almost the entire Flames history.

Teams that rebuild need 20-25 top prospects to turn it around. The Flames list in my opinion

Parekh, Gridin, Basha, Battaglia, Mews, Honzek, Morin, Suniev, Coronato, Grushnikov, Zary, Stromgren

There are a few the might push themselves onto that list (Eg. Kerins, have to see him at the NHL level)

12 is decent for this part of the rebuilding process. We still need a lot more youth, period.

Great post but to add, I think great teams build from the net and D out and right now with how stellar Wolf is looking at still so young paired with how quickly CC has rebuilt the Dman prospect group I’d say the flames are definitely on the right track. We will need a lot more to continue to go right but I’m excited so far at the work that’s been done since BT took a flyer.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

You can skip the nailing your high picks (or really almost any picks) if you are Vegas (I know they don’t count as a NHL team for this argument but I believe they are one). They have never had a top 5 picks and their drafting is horrific. They just nailed their trades and signings and outside of one player in their franchise history have never drafted a player who has averaged more than 0.5 points per game (41 point player) and outside of those two studs have never drafted a player who has averaged more than 0.3 points per game (25 point player). For at least one team all you need to do is make savvy trades and signings.

There literally is a team that demonstrates the answer to the question in the thread title is “yes”

I think we can all agree Vegas is a unique case. Are the Flames at a similar starting point that resembles anything like Vegas? The NHL isn't going to let the Flames hand pick players off every team in the league to build our team moving forward.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The Bruins have been a top team in the league for the most part of two decades now, not because they blew it up and drafted high, but because they drafted well and managed to find core players and superstars throughout the draft. They also made good UFA signings and trades.

Pastrnak 25th overall, Marchand 71st overall, McAvoy 14th overall, Swayman 111th overall and going back further they had guys like Bergeron 45th overall and Krejci 63rd overall lead their team for a decade.

Why are teams like this extremely rare though? Because the statistical probability you will draft all these players where they did is likely under 1%. Someone wins the lottery each week, it doesn't mean it's a good retirement strategy.

The thing I'm trying to differentiate is there is a massive gap between can things happen and the likelihood of them happening.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Basically the only way you can become a contender without top 5 picks is if you have all the horseshoes.



The only easy way to get them is if you're picking in the top 5-10 or so. We picked in the top 6 three times recently and hit homeruns with two of them, getting legitimate top line players in Monahan and Tkachuk.

2012-13

48 game lock-out shortened season.

Had we lost 4 more games we could have been picking either Mackinnon or Barkov. Just had to toss 4 games away, that's it.

"IF" everything else still happened the same way, (Monahan was actualy outscoring Mackinnon for the first 3-4 years) and we still got Gaudreau/Tkachuk, I believe we'd have a cup or at least a finals appearence.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

It is possible to build a contender without drafting in the top 10, but realistically from the 1980's the Flames have only hit that hard on Wolf and Gaudreau since Fleury. Servicable players are useful. Guys like Mangiapane are helpful..

I would say Brodie was a massive hit and a top 3 Dman on this team for more than half a decade. Fox didn’t sign but they did draft a Norris trophy winner in the third round.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Why are teams like this extremely rare though? Because the statistical probability you will draft all these players where they did is likely under 1%. Someone wins the lottery each week, it doesn't mean it's a good retirement strategy.

The thing I'm trying to differentiate is there is a massive gap between can things happen and the likelihood of them happening.

Teams in the current NHL who have not picked in the top 4 - Vegas

Teams that have picked in the top 4 - the other 31 teams.

The likelihood that a team will pick in the top 4 over any stretch of time (10-15 years) is almost a certainty. The likelihood that that top 4 pick will be the key contributer to a Stanley Cup championship, much much lower.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The Bruins have been a top team in the league for the most part of two decades now, not because they blew it up and drafted high, but because they drafted well and managed to find core players and superstars throughout the draft. They also made good UFA signings and trades.

Pastrnak 25th overall, Marchand 71st overall, McAvoy 14th overall, Swayman 111th overall and going back further they had guys like Bergeron 45th overall and Krejci 63rd overall lead their team for a decade.

But even with this amazing Bruins organization, the only time they won the cup was the year they had Seguin who was pick #2. And since trading him, they haven't won another cup.

Even in the most extreme case, the team only won a cup with a top 2 pick.

[Paulie Walnuts]

The Vegas comparisons are cute, keep it up.

Maybe Gary will allow us to come back as an expansion team in 2027 so we can be lumped in with Vegas and Seattle.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

But even with this amazing Bruins organization, the only time they won the cup was the year they had Seguin who was pick #2. And since trading him, they haven't won another cup.

Even in the most extreme case, the team only won a cup with a top 2 pick.

The question in the title is if they CAN become a CONTENDER.

And Seguin was on that roster by chance and not a key reason they won the cup, or were contenders for many, many years. The pick he was selected with wasn't even theirs lol. They didn't "tank" to get him and then build their team around him. That's the whole premise of tanking.

[Braden]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

But even with this amazing Bruins organization, the only time they won the cup was the year they had Seguin who was pick #2. And since trading him, they haven't won another cup.

Even in the most extreme case, the team only won a cup with a top 2 pick.

That 22 points in 74 games from a rookie really pushed them over the top.. plus he was a scratch for the first 11 playoff games.

I know it doesn't change the fact he was a #2 overall pick on the roster but that's likely more fluke than anything

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

The Vegas comparisons are cute, keep it up.

Maybe Gary will allow us to come back as an expansion team in 2027 so we can be lumped in with Vegas and Seattle.

The Penguins comparisons are cute too, Crosby was drafted in a lottery where every team had a chance. So that example does not count.

Every single team in the NHL save one has drafted in the top 4. When people discover that teams that have drafted in the top 4 win Cups that may be a major contributing factor to the correlation.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The question in the title is if they CAN become a CONTENDER.

And Seguin was on that roster by chance and not a key reason they won the cup, or were contenders for many, many years. The pick he was selected with wasn't even theirs lol. They didn't "tank" to get him and then build their team around him. That's the whole premise of tanking.

Yeah, Seguin was a small part but he was there, and he was homegrown.

The bigger part of Boston's Cup that Calgary has shown no ability to do is draft one of the best two-way centres to ever play the game in the 2nd round, and also sign one of the greatest defencemen in the history of the league as a free agent.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Braden

That 22 points in 74 games from a rookie really pushed them over the top.. plus he was a scratch for the first 11 playoff games.

I know it doesn't change the fact he was a #2 overall pick on the roster but that's likely more fluke than anything

Stamkos was also a key contributor on the first Tampa Cup team. Without him and other top 10 picks like Drouin, Koekkoek and Connolly they may never have won the first Cup. Kuvherov, Point, Palat, Gourde, Vasi (the studs who actually won that Cup for them) thank those top 10 studs for their service.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

It is possible to build a contender without drafting in the top 10, but realistically from the 1980's the Flames have only hit that hard on Wolf and Gaudreau since Fleury..

He wasn't drafted, but Norris-winner Giordano must count as a "hit" too, no?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah, Seguin was a small part but he was there, and he was homegrown.

The bigger part of Boston's Cup that Calgary has shown no ability to do is draft one of the best two-way centres to ever play the game in the 2nd round, and also sign one of the greatest defencemen in the history of the league as a free agent.

They drafted many key players and none of them were picked in the top 10.

They do have the advantage of being a more desirable destination. They are more likely to be awarded a guy like Adam Fox than be penalized a guy like Adam Fox just because of geography/history/etc.

Flames have an uphill battle, even if they do draft top 5 or 10, but if they hit on some draft picks outside of the top 10 they can become a contender.

They look to have already hit on a starting goalie in the 7th round. A good start, and the D and W prospects look very good early, they need to find some C's though whether they are found in the top 10 or not doesn't matter. It's just more likely to find them there is all.

[Calgary4LIfe]

When the Flames beat Dallas, Dallas was a 'great story' at getting back to the playoffs with a nice young roster. I don't think anyone labeled them as a contender. Last season was probably the first time with that core that Dallas was labeled as a contender, and they flopped. I don't think this season I would call them a contender either. Good solid team, but I don't think they come out of the central. They are probably the 5th best team in the west for the cup this year I would say, and maybe 6th by my personal estimation, though we will see what other moves they make.

[traptor]

Boston had all the horseshoes as previously mentioned. And those horseshoe stayed together for a long time. You had Bergeron, Marchand, chara and rask all playing there for 10-15 years.
It wasn't multiple iterations of cores while sustaining success. It was one core together for a long time.

And it seems like they're sliding into mushy middle status after getting hit with the bullet we dodged (lindholm).

Bergeron was a generational player. Hes one of the greatest two way centers and leaders to ever play.

Chara was a perinnial noris winner.
Marchand a superstar rat winger
Rask was a perinnial vezna winner.


Could you do this outside of early 1st round picks? Yeah it's possible.

Is it likely? Hell no.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The Penguins comparisons are cute too, Crosby was drafted in a lottery where every team had a chance. So that example does not count.

Every single team in the NHL save one has drafted in the top 4. When people discover that teams that have drafted in the top 4 win Cups that may be a major contributing factor to the correlation.

Malkin and Fleury just came out of thin air?