Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Still pretty confident PP will never be Prime Minister? Ok.

So I guess you just don’t vote? Hahaha

It’s ok if you are afraid to say. I understand.

Never been to Ottawa, but I bet its nice there.

Do you have a fever from Covid? Should have gotten the shot. You can't tell who i'm voting for? lol Dibs for Libs. I dare you to defend PP and what policies he brings to Canada! you can't..

I know you were too busy at the compounds all these years but you do know that Scheer and the Tool both had huge leads in them 'polls' before the elections.

Honk! Honk! Did Deplorable Murphy Brown buy you dinner too? honk! honk!

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Slava

A couple of weeks ago, the Globe and Mail published a piece about the Canadian negotiators (led by Freeland), and I saw an article this morning on Bloomberg that called them the "American whisperers."

A couple of weeks ago they didn't realize that there would be a leadership free for all.

Freeland is probably not going to be negotiating. Or Carney. Or anybody else with any kind of standing in the party, they're going to be busy campaigning in the leadership race.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Do you have a fever from Covid? Should have gotten the shot. You can't tell who i'm voting for? lol Dibs for Libs. I dare you to defend PP and what policies he brings to Canada! you can't..

Honk! Honk! Did Deplorable Murphy Brown buy you dinner too? honk! honk!

Got my shot.

Make sure you send lots of money to the Libs. They are gonna need it!!

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I was actually envisioning no one a better option than Pierre. I do not trust him at all, because he does not think experts are worth listening too, and will be negotiating by his principles, which are frankly a bit "wacko".

Hey, if it only costs Canada 10’s of billions of dollars, I guess you’re ok with that.

Probably less than what Trudeau would have misplaced in that timeframe.

[Ryan Coke]

The current government can and will negotiate with Trump, agreed. I think the problem is that I would suspect that Trump doesn’t want to give Trudeau or the Liberals a win, as he likely would prefer to see PP get elected. So even if they would otherwise get a reasonable deal, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump manipulate the situation to attempt to drive the outcome he wants.

He can let the damage from tariffs sit at the liberals of todays feet, then make a real deal once the conservatives have taken power.

Personally I want the liberals out, there is no doubt I want PP to get an opportunity to show what he can do after the last decade of awful Liberal governance. However I don’t like to see us as a country so vulnerable to Trumps manipulations.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jus...iffs-1.7423756

The tariff issue is really the biggest tragedy for Canada in how Trudeau exited. Canada needs leadership that has a mandate to navigate the next few months starting basically yesterday (now is the next best time). You can expect pretty much as a certainty, a 25% tariff on all CAD exports to the US starting in two weeks and lasting at minimum most of the year to allow for a Liberal Leadership contest, parliament to come back to session, a non-confidence vote to occur, at minimum a 30-day election, and finally a new government to form and get started. So at least June before anyone can actually even begin to seriously engage with the US on trade and then however long that takes with whatever new items Trump feels increasingly emboldened to extract.

Regardless of the impact of the eventual deal end result, the massive delay in it's own right will cost the Canadian economy at least tens of billions. That's going to be many lost jobs, many more families struggling for longer than necessary. And for what?

A government with no ####s to give in someways is in a more power negotiating position.

You want to turn off power exports or oil exports for a few days and you are going to hurt your chances with the electorate. You want to enact counter Tarrifs that increase the cost of everything that hurts you with the electorate.

All of the responses in a trade war are politically damaging. Having someone who doesn’t care is an advantage.

The negative side is the run out the clock aspect. Trump can just wait to get a more sympathetic negotiator. But that should delay the implementation of Tarrifs. Overall while I think the risk of Tarrifs is high, I don’t think the current state of government negatively affects our position unless PP chooses to undermine Trudeau to try to win an election.

Smith also needs to shut up as Canada needs to present a united front on whatever the chosen strategy of the government is.

So any negative aspects will be inflicted by groups putting electoral politics over the negotiating position. (One might argue that Trudeau as done the same thing though)

[Locke]

See? Its all about timing. Now that theres effectively no sitting Government now is the time for Convoy 2.0!

Go and languish in a hot tub on Parliament Hill! Nobody would do anything about it now!

I dont even care why. COVID restrictions? Sure. Whatever floats it for you, I dont care.

Honk! Honk!

[Slava]

Originally Posted by chemgear

A couple of weeks ago they didn't realize that there would be a leadership free for all.

Freeland is probably not going to be negotiating. Or Carney. Or anybody else with any kind of standing in the party, they're going to be busy campaigning in the leadership race.

I think it was that weekend right before she resigned, but regardless, it's a team of negotiators. Let's not pretend that conservatives are suddenly fans of Freeland though. We've all seen several years of hearing how dumb she is, that she has no idea what she's doing, and that kind of thing.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

OK, but to me, there are a couple of considerations here. First, the government can continue to negotiate and deal with the US. Like them or not, they are still the government, and they still have authority. It's not like they all leave for vacation because of this (although if you're a CPC MP in Alberta, you could, and we all know that you'll win your seat anyway!).

But the truth is, it's in the Liberals' best interest to get some kind of agreement or carve-out. This would let them campaign on that, and it would obviously be positive. I realize that this is largely out of their control, just as it would be if the CPC was in power.

This brings me to another point. Despite how they're seen at home, the Trudeau Liberals were regarded as having dealt well with the Trump administration. A couple of weeks ago, the Globe and Mail published a piece about the Canadian negotiators (led by Freeland), and I saw an article this morning on Bloomberg that called them the "American whisperers."

It's in all Canadian's best interests to negotiate a carve out and there will for sure be Canadian government representatives 'negotiating' with the Trump administration. That said with a lame duck Prime Minister they have zero leverage or practical ability to meaningfully negotiate. Anything that requires a vote in parliament cannot be offered up. Any trade countermeasures that require any provincial cooperation that would actually hurt the US back will be tougher to manage with a lame duck leader in place.

There's little incentive for the US to do anything but collect tariffs while waiting for a government who has a real mandate to show up. 50% of the trade deficit is in Oil and Gas and the US are an oil exporter. A 25% tariff is likely to mostly be absorbed by Canadian producers and strand the marginal barrel in Canada and place a majority of the impact on Canadians rather than US consumers at US gas pumps.

[Jacks]

Love the spin that this is somehow a good thing for negotiating with the US. Our "team" will probably not have anyone who will be running in the leadership race or anyone who has already walked out on Trudeau. They will also not be able to negotiate anything that requires a vote in Parliament such as creating new legislation or spending new dollars. Also, anything they do or say will be taken with a huge grain of salt by the Trump administration because it's likely to change in a matter of months after the election that is now all but certain in the Spring. Nothing about this is good for Canada, it's all about the Liberals as usual.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

It's in all Canadian's best interests to negotiate a carve out and there will for sure be Canadian government representatives 'negotiating' with the Trump administration. That said with a lame duck Prime Minister they have zero leverage or practical ability to meaningfully negotiate. Anything that requires a vote in parliament cannot be offered up. Any trade countermeasures that require any provincial cooperation that would actually hurt the US back will be tougher to manage with a lame duck leader in place.

There's little incentive for the US to do anything but collect tariffs while waiting for a government who has a real mandate to show up. 50% of the trade deficit is in Oil and Gas and the US are an oil exporter. A 25% tariff is likely to mostly be absorbed by Canadian producers and strand the marginal barrel in Canada and place a majority of the impact on Canadians rather than US consumers at US gas pumps.

Well, I suppose, at the end of the day, we're at the mercy of the US anyway. If Trump really wants to eliminate the trade deficit, it doesn't matter who's negotiating.

Originally Posted by Jacks

Love the spin that this is somehow a good thing for negotiating with the US. Our "team" will probably not have anyone who will be running in the leadership race or anyone who has already walked out on Trudeau. They will also not be able to negotiate anything that requires a vote in Parliament such as creating new legislation or spending new dollars. Also, anything they do or say will be taken with a huge grain of salt by the Trump administration because it's likely to change in a matter of months after the election that is now all but certain in the Spring. Nothing about this is good for Canada, it's all about the Liberals as usual.

I'm not trying to suggest this is a great positive; it's just that there will still be talks and negotiations. I think for the Liberals there is an added incentive to try to get something done, but that doesn't necessarily translate into anything.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Guess if you put any faith in the polls there are a lot of idiots in canada. Because the seat totals are going to be in the 245 range for PP and 6 for the Liberals.

Thank god for idiots.

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Just so you're brain doesn't short circuit when election results come out, you do realize polls are a snapshot of voter sentiment at a point in time, right? And that these sentiments can quickly change as situations change, because not every voter who may have answered yes to PP in December 2024 is going to vote that way? I understand it's a tough concept for single party simpleton voters to grasp, but in short, things change. Not everyone is a locked in idiot, so your thanking of God for that is very premature.

Geez someone pissed in your cheerios this morning? Did that post deserve such a trashy reply?

You are totally right. It will likely get far worse for the Liberal / NDP based on current trajectories.

What are your expectations here exactly? That Canadians will read hundreds of CP posts from yourself and the likes about Poilievre being bad and 'not serious', and suddenly get an epiphany and forget everything that occured under the governing party? I want to hear your train of thought on what you think will change in Canadian mindsets and why you think they would change on a dime today. Have your own thoughts changed in the past month?

Frankly, sounds like you are just unhappy Canadians are largely not siding with your political views and voting intent right now.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

I'm not trying to suggest this is a great positive; it's just that there will still be talks and negotiations. I think for the Liberals there is an added incentive to try to get something done, but that doesn't necessarily translate into anything.

Look at it from the Trump side, why would you give an inch when the person you're negotiating with has absolutely no leverage other than counter tariffs?
If it comes down to a battle of who can survive a tariff war Canada is going to lose badly.


Trump team "We want you to increase NATO spending by 20 billion dollars"
Team Canada "We'll commit to do that if we win the next election but can't promise anything right now since we can't pass any laws or spend money"
Trump team "We want you to double all border monitoring"
Team Canada "We'll commit to do that if we win the next election but can't promise anything right now since we can't pass any laws or spend money"
Trump team "What can you do?"
Team Canada "We'll get back to you in June"

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Geez someone pissed in your cheerios this morning? Did that post deserve such a trashy reply?

You are totally right. It will likely get far worse for the Liberal / NDP based on current trajectories.

What are your expectations here exactly? That Canadians will read hundreds of CP posts from yourself and the likes about Poilievre being bad and 'not serious', and suddenly get an epiphany and forget everything that occured under the governing party? I want to hear your train of thought on what you think will change in Canadian mindsets and why you think they would change on a dime today. Have your own thoughts changed in the past month?

Frankly, sounds like you are just unhappy Canadians are largely not siding with your political views and voting intent right now.

Worse??? So you think the Liberals will win only 2-3 seats?? hahahaha Maybe millions of Ontarians are happy now they got rid of blackface Mr. Dressup. You think people in Ottawa will vote for the Reform Party after the freedumb convoy?

Someone needs a firmware upgrade.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Geez someone pissed in your cheerios this morning? Did that post deserve such a trashy reply?

You are totally right. It will likely get far worse for the Liberal / NDP based on current trajectories.

What are your expectations here exactly? That Canadians will read hundreds of CP posts from yourself and the likes about Poilievre being bad and 'not serious', and suddenly get an epiphany and forget everything that occured under the governing party? I want to hear your train of thought on what you think will change in Canadian mindsets and why you think they would change on a dime today. Have your own thoughts changed in the past month?

Frankly, sounds like you are just unhappy Canadians are largely not siding with your political views and voting intent right now.

He once was such a bright, young cucumber full of hope and promise. Vinegar is a terrible drug, man.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

He once was such a bright, young cucumber full of hope and promise. Vinegar is a terrible drug, man.

Still ZIP from you of why PP is a good candidate other than that he is rightwing deplorable. How many posts are you going to post before answering this? lol

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Still ZIP from you of why PP is a good candidate other than that he is rightwing deplorable. How many posts are you going to post before answering this? lol

What candidate do you support?

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by shotinthebacklund

And people say this country isn't divided. your part of the problem, not part of a solution.

The country is absolutely divided, but not politically.

It's divided between the side that knows and the side that doesn't know the proper uses of "your/you're", "then/than", and "there/they're/their".

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well, I suppose, at the end of the day, we're at the mercy of the US anyway. If Trump really wants to eliminate the trade deficit, it doesn't matter who's negotiating.

Sure, if the US is actually trying to close the trade deficit with Canada with tariffs no one's going to negotiate out of that. But literally any other path is more difficult or even essentially closed off so long as there isn't a mandated government.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Look at it from the Trump side, why would you give an inch when the person you're negotiating with has absolutely no leverage other than counter tariffs?
If it comes down to a battle of who can survive a tariff war Canada is going to lose badly.


Trump team "We want you to increase NATO spending by 20 billion dollars"
Team Canada "We'll commit to do that if we win the next election but can't promise anything right now since we can't pass any laws or spend money"
Trump team "We want you to double all border monitoring"
Team Canada "We'll commit to do that if we win the next election but can't promise anything right now since we can't pass any laws or spend money"
Trump team "What can you do?"
Team Canada "We'll get back to you in June"

Last time Trump came into office, he came in with the intention of scrapping NAFTA. That required a year and a half of negotiations and tariff tradeoffs.

What makes you think 6 months is suddenly a death knell for any negotiation?